Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[Meteoric Rise]

Richmond supporters are going to ensure we get stuck with this thread on the main board for the rest of time. I wonder at this point if even nuclear war would even stop this thread.

It takes 2 sides to tango in a debate.

 

[RichLeMonde]

It takes 2 sides to tango in a debate.

Indeed, the top poster in this thread is a Geelong supporter, but apparently it’s Richmond fans’ fault that the thread drags on

 

[Mr Meow]

Indeed, the top poster in this thread is a Geelong supporter, but apparently it’s Richmond fans’ fault that the thread drags on

Shutting down MRs inane rubbish 1000 times has been a necessity I'm afraid, while the rest has been more sane but repetitive discussions with Noid.

 

[RichLeMonde]

Shutting down MRs inane rubbish 1000 times has been a necessity I'm afraid, while the rest has been more sane but repetitive discussions with Noid.

I have no problem with the posting, it just irritates me when people make out that somehow only one supporter base is responsible for its continuation.

 

[Mr Meow]

I have no problem with the posting, it just irritates me when people make out that somehow only one supporter base is responsible for its continuation.

Eh it's whatever. I've been mocked not for my actual opinions but merely the post count, so I can't be doing too much wrong. Everything on a forum is tit for tat to some degree.

If opposition supporters don't respond it becomes a ridiculous echo chamber, and some unrefuted claims would be silly to leave alone. But maybe that should be the next stage of the experiment?

 

[Daka]

Martin has definitely been stooged a few times on the AA selection front

If Danger had Dusty's year in 2023. playing 86% forward & having the numbers he had, I have no doubt in my mind he would have been locked in 100% for AA.

 

[blaisee]

If Danger had Dusty's year in 2023. playing 86% forward & having the numbers he had, I have no doubt in my mind he would have been locked in 100% for AA.

Lol

So true

 

[Noidnadroj]

Martin is often criticised for lack of consistency and elite longevity ..we’ve often seen comments along the lines of ‘only a few great seasons’ ….

So this data is to address that narrative. In Martin’s entire career he has made 4 x AA teams. So there are 10 x seasons not selected in the final AA team. In those 10 x seasons (I took out his AA years so as not to skew the stats), which is 199 games, Martin has averaged:

Disposals: 23.47
Goals: 1.15

Since 2015, there are a total of 7 x players (outside Martin) who have averaged 23+ and 1.1+ in a SINGLE season, so an average of less than 1 per season.

These are not quirky stats … every elite player is trying to get the ball as often as they can and trying to kick as many goals as they can.

So hopefully this puts to bed the narrative of ‘he hasn’t been elite for long enough or only had a handful of great years’. Unless of course there’s some weird glitch in the matrix that allows only Martin to be a relatively high possession player who kicks goals..??


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[Mr Meow]

Martin is often criticised for lack of consistency and elite longevity ..we’ve often seen comments along the lines of ‘only a few great seasons’ ….

So this data is to address that narrative. In Martin’s entire career he has made 4 x AA teams. So there are 10 x seasons not selected in the final AA team. In those 10 x seasons (I took out his AA years so as not to skew the stats), which is 199 games, Martin has averaged:

Disposals: 23.47
Goals: 1.15

Since 2015, there are a total of 7 x players (outside Martin) who have averaged 23+ and 1.1+ in a SINGLE season, so an average of less than 1 per season.

These are not quirky stats … every elite player is trying to get the ball as often as they can and trying to kick as many goals as they can.

So hopefully this puts to bed the narrative of ‘he hasn’t been elite for long enough or only had a handful of great years’. Unless of course there’s some weird glitch in the matrix that allows only Martin to be a relatively high possession player who kicks goals..??


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Midfielder with free license to attack and rotates forward a lot gets a good amount of goals. Shock! Even so, 1.1 goals a game is hardly Leigh Matthews territory (one of the few to have a similar role).

3 outstanding finals series - 2 of them supplemented by very good H&A but not the best of the best.

1 outstanding overall season where he was brilliant start to finish.

A sliding scale of average-good but not A+ level for the rest. A 4-5 AA level career.

Finally the debate can lay to rest as this is what 90% of neutrals have believed, currently believe and will always believe.

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

Martin has been a pretty good player. Similar to a Jack Crisp

25

Jack Crisp

Age

30

Ht

190cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.2

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

9.7

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

MG

307.6

4star

D

17.7

4star

K

10.7

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

3star

MG

307.6

4star

D

14.4

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.0

5star

type for us , always plays decent footy and then goes to another level in finals.

 

[Mr Meow]

Steve Johnson: 19.2 disposals, 1.8 goals and 0.9 assists per game.

Dustin Martin: 24.5 disposals, 1.1 goals and 0.7 goals per game.

You get an extra goal a game from Stevie J as he's a forward primarily with license to roam into midfield. You get an extra 5 disposals from Martin as he's primarily an ultra attacking midfielder with license to roam or even sit forward.

The primarily midfielder who gets more ball will always rack up more votes but stripping it down statistically, these two are in the same ball park. It's not like SJ was a less than outstanding finals player - 19.6 disposals, 1.7 goals and 0.7 assists per game spread over 26 games and 11 different finals series.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Martin has been a pretty good player. Similar to a Jack Crisp type for us , always plays decent footy and then goes to another level in finals.

You damn Jack Crisp with such faint praise here. After all, he is within:

• 3 Ayres Medals
• 3 Smith Medals
• 4 AA selections
• 1 goal per game in his career including finals
• 9 finals BOG's and several key world records like greatest recorded season
• most broken tackles recorded in a season
• best recorded 1 v 1 offensive contester
• highest average goals + assists in finals in Premiership years of any Premiership player recorded
• 12 x averaging 20+ possession + 1 or more goal seasons
• +1

from being the outright GOAT.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Steve Johnson: 19.2 disposals, 1.8 goals and 0.9 assists per game.

Dustin Martin: 24.5 disposals, 1.1 goals and 0.7 goals per game.

You get an extra goal a game from Stevie J as he's a forward primarily with license to roam into midfield. You get an extra 5 disposals from Martin as he's primarily an ultra attacking midfielder with license to roam or even sit forward.

The primarily midfielder who gets more ball will always rack up more votes but stripping it down statistically, these two are in the same ball park. It's not like SJ was a less than outstanding finals player - 19.6 disposals, 1.7 goals and 0.7 assists per game spread over 26 games and 11 different finals series.

Top-5 in their team’s best and fairest?
Stevie J = 0 from 16 seasons
Martin = 10 from 14

Top-3 in their team’s B&F:
Stevie J = 0
Martin = 9



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[RUNVS]

Top-5 in their team’s best and fairest?
Stevie J = 0 from 16 seasons
Martin = 10 from 14

Top-3 in their team’s B&F:
Stevie J = 0
Martin = 9



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B&F is such a stupid metric though as it largely falls down to the coaches' biases.

Someone Jake Lloud won a B&F at the Swans and there has not been a single year where he has been anywhere near close to being the best player at the Swans, but Longmire likes him so he won.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Midfielder with free license to attack and rotates forward a lot gets a good amount of goals. Shock! Even so, 1.1 goals a game is hardly Leigh Matthews territory (one of the few to have a similar role).

3 outstanding finals series - 2 of them supplemented by very good H&A but not the best of the best.

1 outstanding overall season where he was brilliant start to finish.

A sliding scale of average-good but not A+ level for the rest. A 4-5 AA level career.

Finally the debate can lay to rest as this is what 90% of neutrals have believed, currently believe and will always believe.

So just to confirm your assertion … Martin’s able to average a level of disposals and goals across his 10 x non-AA seasons higher than nearly anyone in a single season can in the last 9-years because he has a role other players don’t ? A role played by the greatest player of the 20th century in Lethal.

So that leaves 2 x possibilities:

1. Coaches are choosing to not have a player execute a similar role played by two of the undisputed greatest finals players in history and the guy voted the player of the 20th century who share 7 x flags between them.

Or….

2. Very few players are capable of playing their role.

Players capable of winning contests forward of the ball, setting up scores and kicking goals would be the top of every coach’s wish list…. isn’t it strange coach’s don’t assign that role to anyone except Martin and Lethal …..it’s almost as if very few players are capable of doing it. Funny that.


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[Meteoric Rise]

B&F is such a stupid metric though as it largely falls down to the coaches' biases.

Someone Jake Lloud won a B&F at the Swans and there has not been a single year where he has been anywhere near close to being the best player at the Swans, but Longmire likes him so he won.

Fadge will be fuming at this post. Seething with hatred.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Fadge will be fuming at this post. Seething with hatred.

I’m first to admit there are regular B&F anomalies and they should be treated with a level of caution. But not finishing top-5 in 16 x seasons seems to be somewhat of a pattern, not an anomaly. Unless there were 16 x consecutive anomalies … which would be somewhat of a freakish anomaly.


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[Meteoric Rise]

I’m first to admit there are regular B&F anomalies and they should be treated with a level of caution. But not finishing top-5 in 16 x seasons seems to be somewhat of a pattern, not an anomaly. Unless there were 16 x consecutive anomalies … which would be somewhat of a freakish anomaly.


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Yep hell of an anomaly that. Uber anomaly. All time b&f anomaly that the player who was so smart he knew to peel off his man and run forward with his hand in the air looking for the easy receive every time Geelong were streaming forward outnumbering the opposition....should never finish top 5 in his own club's Best & Fairest in 16 attempts. How unlucky.

 

[Magpie Since 1986]

You damn Jack Crisp with such faint praise here. After all, he is within:

• 3 Ayres Medals
• 3 Smith Medals
• 4 AA selections
• 1 goal per game in his career including finals
• 9 finals BOG's and several key world records like greatest recorded season
• most broken tackles recorded in a season
• best recorded 1 v 1 offensive contester
• highest average goals + assists in finals in Premiership years of any Premiership player recorded
• 12 x averaging 20+ possession + 1 or more goal seasons
• +1

from being the outright GOAT.

Yeh but which one of them had 30 & 2 goals in the '18 prelim? Easy to downhill ski when your team is smashing sides .

Interestingly De Goey and Martin have both played in 5 finals losses in their careers. De Goey has 7 goals in those finals, Martin has 3 goals. I wonder why Martin struggles when the team aren't playing well and he doesn't have the whole 50 to himself.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yeh but which one of them had 30 & 2 goals in the '18 prelim? Easy to downhill ski when your team is smashing sides .

Interestingly De Goey and Martin have both played in 5 finals losses in their careers. De Goey has 7 goals in those finals, Martin has 3 goals. I wonder why Martin struggles when the team aren't playing well and he doesn't have the whole 50 to himself.

You are onto something here MS86.

This is a forum so no good saying it here. From now on any time you meet someone new in person, introduce yourself then just tell them Dustin Martin struggles in finals and Crisp is at least his equal cos 1 game and Degoey is a class above cos he has kicked 7 goals in 5 losing finals. When you are doing your job searches etc people will be really interested to know these things.

 

[Mr Meow]

So just to confirm your assertion … Martin’s able to average a level of disposals and goals across his 10 x non-AA seasons higher than nearly anyone in a single season can in the last 9-years because he has a role other players don’t ? A role played by the greatest player of the 20th century in Lethal.

So that leaves 2 x possibilities:

1. Coaches are choosing to not have a player execute a similar role played by two of the undisputed greatest finals players in history and the guy voted the player of the 20th century who share 7 x flags between them.

Or….

2. Very few players are capable of playing their role.

Players capable of winning contests forward of the ball, setting up scores and kicking goals would be the top of every coach’s wish list…. isn’t it strange coach’s don’t assign that role to anyone except Martin and Lethal …..it’s almost as if very few players are capable of doing it. Funny that.


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I've always praised Martin's capacity to win a lot of ball as an attacking midfielder or high half forward who links up with the midfield. It's what has made him elite and he particularly nailed that formula for a 4 year period. Even more specifically, in finals.

Some clubs are happy with their midfielders being their midfielders and their forwards being forwards. Martin has a higher goal average than pure midfielders from clubs like these. 1.1 is very good. I'd be more blown away if it was 1.8 over his whole career. All it looks like is a 70/30 elite forward/mid has an extra goal contribution per game compared to a 70/30 elite mid/forward who has 5 extra disposals per game.

Both worthy of team of the century and would be an excellent rotation with their respective 30/70 allocations.

If I was going to bother with your line of thinking I'd ask which forwards this century have averaged 19+ disposals, 1.8+ goals and 0.9+ goal assists in given seasons. It's a pretty tidy combo.

And this is a much more level playing field for comparison compared to Martin vs Matthews. I'm glad you accepted that.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yeh but which one of them had 30 & 2 goals in the '18 prelim? Easy to downhill ski when your team is smashing sides .

Interestingly De Goey and Martin have both played in 5 finals losses in their careers. De Goey has 7 goals in those finals, Martin has 3 goals. I wonder why Martin struggles when the team aren't playing well and he doesn't have the whole 50 to himself.

Selwood had 31 disposals, 16 contested possessions, 9 clearances, 3 goals and 3 goal assists in a losing final in 2014. 24 disposals, 11 clearances and 2 goal assists a week later, also a losing final.

He was our 2nd best player in the losing 2008 grand final.

39 disposals, 25 contested possessions, 14 tackles, 9 clearances, a goal and an assist in the losing 2016 prelim.

34 disposals and a goal and easily our best player a year later in another losing prelim.

30 and 21 (shortened game) disposals in the 2 finals against Richmond 2019/2020.

He had plenty of great performances in winning finals too but in fairly poor performing sides he was huge - unfortunately his team mates weren't quite at his level. In a few of those comfortable opposition wins he was never going to dominate votes but he was in the best handful of players each time and certainly was Geelong's best.

Martin as good as he was only did it when his side was (almost always) dominant. Especially in second halves. He never really had a heroic performance in the 5 finals exits where Richmond lost, or the losing 2020 QF.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Selwood had 31 disposals, 16 contested possessions, 9 clearances, 3 goals and 3 goal assists in a losing final in 2014. 24 disposals, 11 clearances and 2 goal assists a week later, also a losing final.

He was our 2nd best player in the losing 2008 grand final.

39 disposals, 25 contested possessions, 14 tackles, 9 clearances, a goal and an assist in the losing 2016 prelim.

34 disposals and a goal and easily our best player a year later in another losing prelim.

30 and 21 (shortened game) disposals in the 2 finals against Richmond 2019/2020.

He had plenty of great performances in winning finals too but in fairly poor performing sides he was huge - unfortunately his team mates weren't quite at his level. In a few of those comfortable opposition wins he was never going to dominate votes but he was in the best handful of players each time and certainly was Geelong's best.

Martin as good as he was only did it when his side was (almost always) dominant. Especially in second halves. He never really had a heroic performance in the 5 finals exits where Richmond lost, or the losing 2020 QF.

Of the 36 wins Richmond had including finals to close out each season in our flag years, Martin got 233 coaches votes. Every win was essential to claim a top-4 spot and a subsequent flag. In the 27 x H&A wins to close out those seasons he got 51 Brownlow votes. In the 9 x winning finals he got 72 coaches votes. (Nick Daicos had an amazing year in 2023 … in 22 games he got 108 coaches votes).

So yeah, Martin only ‘did it’ when his side dominated finals. Except when he ‘did it’ across 36 wins in 3 x flag campaigns. So if we ignore that then we can pretend he only ‘got on the end’ of some dominant finals .


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[Noidnadroj]

I've always praised Martin's capacity to win a lot of ball as an attacking midfielder or high half forward who links up with the midfield. It's what has made him elite and he particularly nailed that formula for a 4 year period. Even more specifically, in finals.

Some clubs are happy with their midfielders being their midfielders and their forwards being forwards. Martin has a higher goal average than pure midfielders from clubs like these. 1.1 is very good. I'd be more blown away if it was 1.8 over his whole career. All it looks like is a 70/30 elite forward/mid has an extra goal contribution per game compared to a 70/30 elite mid/forward who has 5 extra disposals per game.

Both worthy of team of the century and would be an excellent rotation with their respective 30/70 allocations.

If I was going to bother with your line of thinking I'd ask which forwards this century have averaged 19+ disposals, 1.8+ goals and 0.9+ goal assists in given seasons. It's a pretty tidy combo.

And this is a much more level playing field for comparison compared to Martin vs Matthews. I'm glad you accepted that.

Coaches don’t want their midfielders kicking goals. Got it.


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[Melvin]

Yes, Dustin Martin can be the GOAT, if he gets progressively better over the next 5 seasons to be at a level beyond anyone else who has ever played.

But the same could be said of Tim Membrey

28

Tim Membrey

Age

30

Ht

188cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

8.1

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.8

5star

T

1.5

3star

G

1.8

5star

D

9.4

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.5

4star

T

1.3

2star

G

1.5

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

4.8

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.6

3star

.