Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

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The campaigner's gone and sold out the MCG for a mid winter game between 2 non-finalists that would have otherwise attracted about 45-50k. WTAF. :tearsofjoy:

Never happened before, probably never happens again.

Vox populi est veritas.

- The voice of the people is the truth. :)
Shame he didn’t really show up for masses

Turned water into piss did old Rusty the messiah



North are shit thread is that away—————>
 

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I am beginning to genuinely wonder if you have been taking the piss the entire time, just joining in on Richmond fans delusions for shits and giggles.

I do think Dusty is pretty good and at least GOAT of the AFL era..... my methods of getting my point across are a little unorthodox.
 
Last night Dusty turned back the clock and showed everyone why he is the GOAT. Nobody will emulate his career.

I was just really happy for hawthorn

I mean for all those young players that was the biggest game of their lives and to be honest will be the biggest game with the biggest crowd they will ever play in front in their whole careers

They can tell their kids that they played in Dusty’s 300th game so good luck to them
 
10 bucks Dusty won't make himself avail to sit on a ute for a lap of honour (retirees) on GF day

ya might as well call Rent-a-goat

24635-animals-goat-face-tongue-humor-funny-horns-fence-eyes-nose.jpg
 
Dusty got 43 of 45 Norm Smith votes in 3 Grand Finals.

Dusty got 28 of 30 Coaches votes in 3 Grand Finals.

Dusty was the highest rated player by Champion Data in all 3 Grand Finals.

But he wasn't BOG in 2 of those GF's apparently. :tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy:


Say what?

A poster asked about their memories that one of the Dusty NSMs was possibly a little controversial. I then posted the fact that the AFLCA didn’t vote for him as the 2017 GF BOG but decided that Houli was the best player that day.

I expressed no opinions on the matter.



Your post has no relationship to what I wrote. You’re fighting against sentiments that I never expressed. Why did you do that?
 
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Say what?

A poster asked about their memories that one of the Dusty NSMs was possibly a little controversial. I then posted the fact that the AFLCA didn’t vote for him as the 2017 GF BOG but decided that Houli was the best player that day.

I expressed no opinions on the matter.

I then noted that this discrepancy also occurred in the 2022 GF (Smith NSM but Dangerfield was AFLCA BOG) and wondered if there could have been other examples.

Your post has no relationship to what I wrote. You’re fighting against sentiments that I never expressed. Why did you do that?

My post did bear a relationship to what you wrote. Before I get onto settling this question once and for all, I will correct you on Dangerfield being voted BOG by the coaches in 2022, this was not the case. He was awarded 8 votes as the unanimous 2nd BOG to Isaac Smith who got the maximum 10 votes. Dangerfield however did win the Ayres Medal for best in the finals series.

But let's have a proper look at this so we can understand where Dusty's GF performances sit compared to other players seen as being BOG in Grand Finals since 2012. There are 3 main credible methods of recognising who has played best in Grand Finals.

Norm Smith Medal votes, voted on by a selection of 5 football people, some of whom can be journalists, and ex-players/coaches, none of whom should be especially connected to any of the teams or players participating.

AFLCA(Coaches) votes. Ostensibly voted on by the head coaches of the 2 competing teams, more likely a consensus of the coaching panels of the 2 competing teams thoughts on which players would be thought to have played best under traditional voting systems, but with an influence of the inside knowledge of the coaches understanding the player's roles and how they affect their team's fortunes.

Official player ratings. An objective system that awards and deducts points for various actions each player performs according to the perceived value those actions would normally have to his team.

They are all constructed differently and produced by different people with different roles in the sport. Coaches votes have been available since 2016. Player ratings since 2012. Norm Smith Medal votes since 1979. So let's put into a table everything since 2012...



YearNorm Smith Medallist & votesNorm Smith votes of any player voted best under ALL other methodsTop Coaches VotesCoaches votes of any player voted best under ANY other methodsTop Player RatingPlayer rating and ranking of any player voted best under ALL other methodsGary Ayres Medal
2012Ryan O'Keefe(12 votes)McVeigh 1(5th BOG)
Franklin 5(=3rd BOG)
n/an/aJarrad McVeigh/Lance Franklin(21.3)O'Keefe 14.6(11th ranked)n/a
2013Brian Lake(12 votes)Johnson 0 votes (not in top 5 BOG)n/an/aMichael Johnson(22.7)Lake 17.1(3rd ranked)n/a
2014Luke Hodge(10 votes)Langford 1 vote(=4th BOG)n/an/aWill Langford(21.7)Hodge 18.4(5th ranked)n/a
2015Cyril Rioli(13 votes)Smith 1 vote(=5th BOG)n/an/aIsaac Smith(19.4)Rioli 13.2(11th BOG)n/a
2016Jason Johannisen(8 votes)Bontempelli 0 votes(not in top 4 BOG)Jason Johannisen(9 votes)Bontempelli 0 votes(not in top 7 BOG)Marcus Bontempelli(28.0)Johannisen 10.4(=20th BOG)Josh Kennedy(Sydney version)
2017Dustin Martin (13 votes)Houli 10 votes(2nd BOG)Bachar Houli(10 votes)Martin 8 votes(2nd BOG)Dustin Martin(30.9)Houli 7.5(29th BOG)Dustin Martin
2018Luke Shuey(11 votes)Luke Shuey(10 votes)Luke Shuey(35.7)Steele Sidebottom
2019Dustin Martin (15 votes)Dustin Martin(10 votes)Dustin Martin (22.8)Dustin Martin
2020Dustin Martin(15 votes)Dustin Martin(10 votes)Dustin Martin(32.1*)Dustin Martin
2021Christian Petracca(15 votes)Christian Petracca(10 votes)Christian Petracca(28.8)Jack Macrae
2022Isaac Smith(14 votes)Warner(0 votes - not in top 5 BOG)Isaac Smith(10 votes)Warner 0 votes(not in top 6 BOG)Chad Warner(29.9)Smith 25.2(2nd BOG)Patrick Dangerfield
2023Bobby Hill(15 votes)DeGoey(0 votes - not in top 6 BOG)Bobby Hill(10 votes)DeGoey 0 votes(not in top 7 BOG)Jordan DeGoey(22.3)Hill 12.9(13th BOG)Sam Walsh


Players to be BOG under all 3 methods(available since 2016 only)

Dustin Martin(twice, back to back 2019-20)
Luke Shuey 2018
Christian Petracca 2021

Note 2012-15 the player ratings and Norm Smith Medal voting never recognised the same player as BOG.

Coaches votes and Norm Smith votes have only disagreed once on who was BOG since 2016, that was 2017 when Martin and Houli were each recognised by 1 method. But by player ratings it was Martin then daylight then 27 other players, then Houli.)

If we were to create a system where each method was given equal weight of 20 points for BOG, 10 for 2nd BOG, 5 for 3rd BOG under each method and alter that to 30-15-7.5 when only 2 methods were available 2012-15...and use amount of votes or player rating as a tie breaker where required, this is how the Grand Final performances would rank:

1. Luke Shuey 2018 60 points(35.7 player rating)
2. Dustin Martin 2020 60 points(32.1 player rating)
3. Christian Petracca 2021 60 points(28.8 player rating)
4. Dustin Martin 2019 60 points(22.8 player rating)

= 5. Isaac Smith 2022, Dustin Martin 2017 50 points
7. Bobby Hill 2023 40 points(max coaches/smith medal votes)
8. Jason Johannisen 2016 40 points(8 of max 15 Smith Medal votes, 9 of max 10 coaches votes)
9. Brian Lake 2013 37.5 points
10. Langford/Hodge 2014, O'Keefe 2012, Johnson 2013, Rioli/Smith 2015 30 points
16. Lance Franklin 2012 26.25 points

You could go into deeper detail but I think this is a fair enough ranking of how well recognised the different performances were under the 3 voting/scoring systems. The top 4 are basically undisputed BOG's and I have used player ratings to separate them. You could equally demote Shuey in 2018 to 4th position as he received on 11 of the 15 possible Norm Smith medal votes, where the others in the top 4 received maximum Smith Medal and Coaches votes AND were the highest rated player in the match.

There are some remarkable things about Martin's Grand Finals.

1. He was undisputed BOG under all methods back to back 2019-20, nobody else has even come close to doing that.
2. He was undisputed BOG under all methods in 2 of his 3 Grand Finals
3. He was BOG using a combination of all methods in all 3 of the 3 Grand Finals he played.
4. Each of the 3 times he was BOG in the Grand Final he accompanied this with the Gary Ayres Medal for best player in the finals series. No other Grand Final BOG has even done this once so far in the 8 year existence of the award.
5. In the least recognised of his GF performances - 2017 - he was BOG under 2 of the 3 methods with historically high votes/scores, and max vote 2nd BOG under the 3rd method, coaches votes.

We could of course go further and collate player ratings in all finals back to 2012 to impute a best in finals that way, and I am as sure as I can be that would equally show Dustin Martin streeting the field.

Dusty has either the best or second highest recognised Grand Final performance in the last 12 years, along with the 4th best and =5th best.

But he almost certainly has the undisputed 1st, 2nd and 3rd best finals series during that period. Ie his 3rd best finals series won greater recognition than any other player's(about 180-190 players play finals each year) BEST finals series in the last 12 years.

That should put his finals deeds into some sort of correct perspective for people.
 
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You been living under a rock?
NO

now will you name the quality richmond players surrounding Dusty that made him the player that he is....or you just can't bring yourself to do that ?

more personal replies like 'you been living under a rock ?' shows you just can't stomach the thought of having to name some Richmond player(s) as quality that 'made' Dusty as you've been saying for years.

Nah you don't have to answer...just STFU for years would be fine. Cheers.
 
NO

now will you name the quality richmond players surrounding Dusty that made him the player that he is....or you just can't bring yourself to do that ?

more personal replies like 'you been living under a rock ?' shows you just can't stomach the thought of having to name some Richmond player(s) as quality that 'made' Dusty as you've been saying for years.

Nah you don't have to answer...just STFU for years would be fine. Cheers.
Richmond had one of the strongest defences of the 21st century, it was as much how it operated as a unit as it was actual star quality. But Rance (when he was there), Grimes, Houli, Vlastuin, Astbury, Broad and Short formed outstanding defences from which the slingshot/swarm footy could operate.

Riewoldt and Lynch were obvious stars. Bolton was even as a junior.

Midfield was workmanlike (minus Dusty) but underrated. In the finals format they stepped up: Prestia, Cotchin, Edwards and Nank. They did everything they needed to for forcing opposition in to scrappy disposals that the elite defence could mop up.

Other forwards had cameos when they needed to: Caddy, Rioli, Lambert and Higgins (when he was there). You don't need a team of stars. The forward line always found ways to be more effective than the oppositions when knockout finals arrived.

So yeah...the idea that Dusty and Dusty alone carried a team of mugs to greatness has always been silly. It was a great team in a field of not-so-great contenders to go against. He was the perfect sledgehammer and was superb during those 4 years, especially finals. When the team wasn't as high functioning, neither was he for the most part.
 
Richmond had one of the strongest defences of the 21st century, it was as much how it operated as a unit as it was actual star quality. But Rance (when he was there), Grimes, Houli, Vlastuin, Astbury, Broad and Short formed outstanding defences from which the slingshot/swarm footy could operate.

Riewoldt and Lynch were obvious stars. Bolton was even as a junior.

Midfield was workmanlike (minus Dusty) but underrated. In the finals format they stepped up: Prestia, Cotchin, Edwards and Nank. They did everything they needed to for forcing opposition in to scrappy disposals that the elite defence could mop up.

Other forwards had cameos when they needed to: Caddy, Rioli, Lambert and Higgins (when he was there). You don't need a team of stars. The forward line always found ways to be more effective than the oppositions when knockout finals arrived.

So yeah...the idea that Dusty and Dusty alone carried a team of mugs to greatness has always been silly. It was a great team in a field of not-so-great contenders to go against. He was the perfect sledgehammer and was superb during those 4 years, especially finals. When the team wasn't as high functioning, neither was he for the most part.
nice one...

see there's nothing wrong/shameful in a Cats fan naming some Richmond players as quality players...if you believe so

(just don't say Castagna, he's a role player, and did his bit, you could even say the Richmond team was less than stellar but it WAS Dusty that pulled the team thru to 3 flags, he was NOT the nothing/passenger player that relied on surrounding teammates)
 
nice one...

see there's nothing wrong/shameful in a Cats fan naming some Richmond players as quality players...if you believe so

(just don't say Castagna, he's a role player, and did his bit, you could even say the Richmond team was less than stellar but it WAS Dusty that pulled the team thru to 3 flags, he was NOT the nothing/passenger player that relied on surrounding teammates)
Yeah it might pain me to say it but I've never shied away from saying that was a great team with many good contributors. These days you don't need bundles and bundles of superstars to be dominant. A 10/10 defence and game plan (finals-appropriate) goes a long way.

There's no doubting that in finals everyone on that team lifted, Dusty included. And many did play to a level for those 4 years that they didn't reach before or after. Nothing wrong with that. I just like to credit both team and Dusty rather than Dusty alone. Oddly this has caused friction between me and a few Richmond supporters who try to downgrade the team to propel Dusty's status to even higher levels.
 
Yeah it might pain me to say it but I've never shied away from saying that was a great team with many good contributors. These days you don't need bundles and bundles of superstars to be dominant. A 10/10 defence and game plan (finals-appropriate) goes a long way.

There's no doubting that in finals everyone on that team lifted, Dusty included. And many did play to a level for those 4 years that they didn't reach before or after. Nothing wrong with that. I just like to credit both team and Dusty rather than Dusty alone. Oddly this has caused friction between me and a few Richmond supporters who try to downgrade the team to propel Dusty's status to even higher levels.

Lol, try to locate one single Richmond supporter who credits Dusty alone for the team's success. No player can ever be that good.

But you saw last Saturday what Richmond supporters think of his performances when it mattered most. He was outrageously good.
 
My post did bear a relationship to what you wrote. Before I get onto settling this question once and for all, I will correct you on Dangerfield being voted BOG by the coaches in 2022, this was not the case. He was awarded 8 votes as the unanimous 2nd BOG to Isaac Smith who got the maximum 10 votes. Dangerfield however did win the Ayres Medal for best in the finals series.

But let's have a proper look at this so we can understand where Dusty's GF performances sit compared to other players seen as being BOG in Grand Finals since 2012. There are 3 main credible methods of recognising who has played best in Grand Finals.

Norm Smith Medal votes, voted on by a selection of 5 football people, some of whom can be journalists, and ex-players/coaches, none of whom should be especially connected to any of the teams or players participating.

AFLCA(Coaches) votes. Ostensibly voted on by the head coaches of the 2 competing teams, more likely a consensus of the coaching panels of the 2 competing teams thoughts on which players would be thought to have played best under traditional voting systems, but with an influence of the inside knowledge of the coaches understanding the player's roles and how they affect their team's fortunes.

Official player ratings. An objective system that awards and deducts points for various actions each player performs according to the perceived value those actions would normally have to his team.

They are all constructed differently and produced by different people with different roles in the sport. Coaches votes have been available since 2016. Player ratings since 2012. Norm Smith Medal votes since 1979. So let's put into a table everything since 2012...



YearNorm Smith Medallist & votesNorm Smith votes of any player voted best under ALL other methodsTop Coaches VotesCoaches votes of any player voted best under ANY other methodsTop Player RatingPlayer rating and ranking of any player voted best under ALL other methodsGary Ayres Medal
2012Ryan O'Keefe(12 votes)McVeigh 1(5th BOG)
Franklin 5(=3rd BOG)
n/an/aJarrad McVeigh/Lance Franklin(21.3)O'Keefe 14.6(11th ranked)n/a
2013Brian Lake(12 votes)Johnson 0 votes (not in top 5 BOG)n/an/aMichael Johnson(22.7)Lake 17.1(3rd ranked)n/a
2014Luke Hodge(10 votes)Langford 1 vote(=4th BOG)n/an/aWill Langford(21.7)Hodge 18.4(5th ranked)n/a
2015Cyril Rioli(13 votes)Smith 1 vote(=5th BOG)n/an/aIsaac Smith(19.4)Rioli 13.2(11th BOG)n/a
2016Jason Johannisen(8 votes)Bontempelli 0 votes(not in top 4 BOG)Jason Johannisen(9 votes)Bontempelli 0 votes(not in top 7 BOG)Marcus Bontempelli(28.0)Johannisen 10.4(=20th BOG)Josh Kennedy(Sydney version)
2017Dustin Martin (13 votes)Houli 10 votes(2nd BOG)Bachar Houli(10 votes)Martin 8 votes(2nd BOG)Dustin Martin(30.9)Houli 7.5(29th BOG)Dustin Martin
2018Luke Shuey(11 votes)Luke Shuey(10 votes)Luke Shuey(35.7)Steele Sidebottom
2019Dustin Martin (15 votes)Dustin Martin(10 votes)Dustin Martin (22.8)Dustin Martin
2020Dustin Martin(15 votes)Dustin Martin(10 votes)Dustin Martin(32.1*)Dustin Martin
2021Christian Petracca(15 votes)Christian Petracca(10 votes)Christian Petracca(28.8)Jack Macrae
2022Isaac Smith(14 votes)Warner(0 votes - not in top 5 BOG)Isaac Smith(10 votes)Warner 0 votes(not in top 6 BOG)Chad Warner(29.9)Smith 25.2(2nd BOG)Patrick Dangerfield
2023Bobby Hill(15 votes)DeGoey(0 votes - not in top 6 BOG)Bobby Hill(10 votes)DeGoey 0 votes(not in top 7 BOG)Jordan DeGoey(22.3)Hill 12.9(13th BOG)Sam Walsh


Players to be BOG under all 3 methods(available since 2016 only)

Dustin Martin(twice, back to back 2019-20)
Luke Shuey 2018
Christian Petracca 2021

Note 2012-15 the player ratings and Norm Smith Medal voting never recognised the same player as BOG.

Coaches votes and Norm Smith votes have only disagreed once on who was BOG since 2016, that was 2017 when Martin and Houli were each recognised by 1 method. But by player ratings it was Martin then daylight then 27 other players, then Houli.)

If we were to create a system where each method was given equal weight of 20 points for BOG, 10 for 2nd BOG, 5 for 3rd BOG under each method and alter that to 30-15-7.5 when only 2 methods were available 2012-15...and use amount of votes or player rating as a tie breaker where required, this is how the Grand Final performances would rank:

1. Luke Shuey 2018 60 points(35.7 player rating)
2. Dustin Martin 2020 60 points(32.1 player rating)
3. Christian Petracca 2021 60 points(28.8 player rating)
4. Dustin Martin 2019 60 points(22.8 player rating)

= 5. Isaac Smith 2022, Dustin Martin 2017 50 points
7. Bobby Hill 2023 40 points(max coaches/smith medal votes)
8. Jason Johannisen 2016 40 points(8 of max 15 Smith Medal votes, 9 of max 10 coaches votes)
9. Brian Lake 2013 37.5 points
10. Langford/Hodge 2014, O'Keefe 2012, Johnson 2013, Rioli/Smith 2015 30 points
16. Lance Franklin 2012 26.25 points

You could go into deeper detail but I think this is a fair enough ranking of how well recognised the different performances were under the 3 voting/scoring systems. The top 4 are basically undisputed BOG's and I have used player ratings to separate them. You could equally demote Shuey in 2018 to 4th position as he received on 11 of the 15 possible Norm Smith medal votes, where the others in the top 4 received maximum Smith Medal and Coaches votes AND were the highest rated player in the match.

There are some remarkable things about Martin's Grand Finals.

1. He was undisputed BOG under all methods back to back 2019-20, nobody else has even come close to doing that.
2. He was undisputed BOG under all methods in 2 of his 3 Grand Finals
3. He was BOG using a combination of all methods in all 3 of the 3 Grand Finals he played.
4. Each of the 3 times he was BOG in the Grand Final he accompanied this with the Gary Ayres Medal for best player in the finals series. No other Grand Final BOG has even done this once so far in the 8 year existence of the award.
5. In the least recognised of his GF performances - 2017 - he was BOG under 2 of the 3 methods with historically high votes/scores, and max vote 2nd BOG under the 3rd method, coaches votes.

We could of course go further and collate player ratings in all finals back to 2012 to impute a best in finals that way, and I am as sure as I can be that would equally show Dustin Martin streeting the field.

Dusty has either the best or second highest recognised Grand Final performance in the last 12 years, along with the 4th best and =5th best.

But he almost certainly has the undisputed 1st, 2nd and 3rd best finals series during that period. Ie his 3rd best finals series won greater recognition than any other player's(about 180-190 players play finals each year) BEST finals series in the last 12 years.

That should put his finals deeds into some sort of correct perspective for people.


That is the best post I’ve ever seen on this site. 👏👏👏👏

Thanks for the correction re. Danger not being the 2022 GF AFLCA BOG. I don’t know how or why I thought that was the case. I thought the “fun fact” about his performance was that he didn’t win the Norm Smith but Jono Brown gave him his 3 votes and the coaches also thought he was best. Only the former is true.

Fascinating to me that neither Izzy or Paddy was statistically BOG that day; that was Chad Warner.

Also it was interesting to learn that Isaac has been a Norm Smith winner without being statistically BOG in 2022 and also been statistically BOG and not even close to winning it in 2015. At least he got a vote. It was amazing how many times the highest points player didn’t get any votes. Seriously WTF.

I can’t believe Houli was only 29th best statistically in 2017 with his AFLCA BOG performance or how unremarkable by this metric Cyril, ROK, JJ and Bobby were with their NSMs. It confirms the “eye test” part of watching sports. I remember how Gryan was statistically BOG in the 2022 PF but nobody wouldn’t have had Paddy as the best player that night by many light years. As you said this data only started in 2012 but IIRC by some other non-AFL sanctioned ranking point system Joel Selwood is comfortably BOG in the 2011 GF.

————————




But he almost certainly has the undisputed 1st, 2nd and 3rd best finals series during that period. Ie his 3rd best finals series won greater recognition than any other player's(about 180-190 players play finals each year) BEST finals series in the last 12 years.

That should put his finals deeds into some sort of correct perspective for people.

Is this statement totally accurate?

FWIW. Just using a quick shallow analysis of basic statistics.

Paddy vs Dusty in September 2017

In the QF that they both played in Paddy had 31 touches and kicked a goal while Dusty had 28 with no goals.

Paddy then had 26 touches and kicked 4 against the Swans in the semi and in the PF against the Crows had 24 and 2.

Dusty had 20 and 3 in the PF and 29 and 2 in the GF.

AVERAGES

Paddy 27 touches and 2.3 goals.


Dusty 25.7 touches and 1.7.


Sure I get it. GF instead of SF and NSM and wins etc. But just on the simple fact of three finals their teams allowed them to play in, and judging the individual player output, in this series it didn’t give the upper hand to Martin.


The other issue I have is with the inclusion of 2020 performances. I’m of the school of thought that they just don’t count. This has nothing to do with Richmond or Dusty. I include my own players’ accomplishments in this season as not being legitimate as it wasn’t a real season. Cameron Guthrie you won a Geelong B&F and made the AA team? Nope. Tom Hawkins you won the Coleman? No, it doesn’t count. That season was just waaaaaaaaaaay too goofy to be considered legit IMO. My team made that GF and I wasn’t one millionth as interested in winning that contest as I was a regular GF.

I’m so hardline on the “2020 isn’t a real season” issue that I don’t even consider the Adelaide 2020 wooden spoon legit. IMO they’re still a club that has never won a real spoon.

I had the same thoughts way back in the day about the lockout 1999 NBA season.
 
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That is the best post I’ve ever seen on this site. 👏👏👏👏

Thanks for the correction re. Danger not being the 2022 GF AFLCA BOG. I don’t know how or why I thought that was the case. I thought the “fun fact” about his performance was that he didn’t win the Norm Smith but Jono Brown gave him his 3 votes and the coaches also thought he was best. Only the former is true.

Fascinating to me that neither Izzy or Paddy was statistically BOG that day; that was Chad Warner.

Also it was interesting to learn that Isaac has been a Norm Smith winner without being statistically BOG in 2022 and also been statistically BOG and not even close to winning it in 2015. At least he got a vote. It was amazing how many times the highest points player didn’t get any votes. Seriously WTF.

I can’t believe Houli was only 29th best statistically in 2017 with his AFLCA BOG performance or how unremarkable by this metric Cyril, LOK, JJ and Bobby were with their NSMs. It confirms the “eye test” part of watching sports. I remember how Gryan was statistically BOG in the 2022 PF but nobody wouldn’t have had Paddy as the best player that night by many light years. As you said this data only started in 2012 but IIRC by some other non-AFL sanctioned ranking point system Joel Selwood is comfortably BOG in the 2011 GF.

————————






Is this statement totally accurate?

FWIW. Just using a quick shallow analysis of basic statistics.

Paddy vs Dusty in September 2017

In the QF that they both played in Paddy had 31 touches and kicked a goal while Dusty had 28 with no goals.

Paddy then had 26 touches and kicked 4 against the Swans in the semi and in the PF against the Crows had 24 and 2.

Dusty had 20 and 3 in the PF and 29 and 2 in the GF.

AVERAGES

Paddy 27 touches and 2.3 goals.


Dusty 25.7 touches and 1.7.


Sure I get it. GF instead of SF and NSM and wins etc. But just on the simple fact of three finals their teams allowed them to play in, and judging the individual player output, in this series it didn’t give the upper hand to Martin.


The other issue I have is with the inclusion of 2020 performances. I’m of the school of thought that they just don’t count. This has nothing to do with Richmond or Dusty. I include my own players’ accomplishments in this season as not being legitimate as it wasn’t a real season. Cameron Guthrie you won a Geelong B&F and made the AA team? Nope. Tom Hawkins you won the Coleman? No, it doesn’t count. That season was just waaaaaaaaaaay too goofy to be considered legit IMO. My team made that GF and I wasn’t one millionth as interested in winning that contest as I was a regular GF.

I’m so hardline on the “2020 isn’t a real season” issue that I don’t even consider the Adelaide 2020 wooden spoon legit. IMO they’re still a club that has never won a real spoon.

I had the same thoughts way back in the day about the lockout 1999 NBA season.

I thank you for your sensible reply TRC. As encouragement to other Geelong supporters I have instructed the Richmond membership department to sign you up and give you credit for our last 2 dynasties so you can boast you support a 2 dynasty club during the TV era. ;)

Just to pick up on your points, first the 2022 Grand Final. Geelong as we know were totally dominant, and due to this their players snapped up all the votes from the Smith Medal panel and the coaches. But Warner has quietly put together what I think is the highest rated game from a losing Grand Finalist since ratings were available from 2012. He had 29 disposals, 2 goals + 1 assist, 18 contested possessions, 72% disposal efficiency, 10 clearances, 6 score involvements, 6 tackles, 22 pressure acts. This was a remarkable performance from a player who was just 21 years, 4 months old at the time. We need to keep a big watch on him as the Swans have now matured and look set to mount a huge challenge this season. He has played in 5 finals so far, all before entering his prime and in one of them his team was uncompetitive, the other 4 were 2w-2l in 4 competitive matches when aged 20-22yo. His ratings are:

2021 EF at 20yo 3.6
2022 QF 8.8
2022 PF 19.3
2022 GF 29.9
2023 EF at 22yo 10.8

This Warner average of 14.68 is very good in the circumstances.

Nick Daicos for comparison so far as a 19 & 20yo 9.4, 5.4, 8.4, 8.3, 13.5 averaging a rating of 9.0 so far but has not played in any finals where his team was uncompetitive. He has however been very young in his 5 finals to date.

Dusty did not play finals until 22yo, and in his first 2 finals, where his team was comfortably outplayed each time, at 22 he went: 12.4, and in 2014 as a 23yo he recorded 11.4 in a very uncompetitive final for his team. So he was at the upper end of this 19-23yo age bracket in his first two finals but Dusty's 19-23yo finals average was 11.9.

Bontempelli
is probably another to look at.

2015 as a 19yo EF 11.1
2016 as a 20yo 9.5, 27.0, 10.5, 28.0
2019 as a 23yo 11.5

Bontempelli 19-23yo finals average 16.3.

Sam Walsh
as a 23yo finally played finals in 2023 and didn't disappoint:

10.6, 14.8, 25.2

Sam Walsh 19-23yo finals average 16.9 Walsh was obviously right at the mature end of this age bracket during those finals.

So there are a few young guns to keep an eye on for ratings in finals in coming years, but also will need to see what Bontempelli can come up with this year as a 28yo right at his peak.

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To give an idea of what these guys are chasing in their primes, Dusty 24yo onwards:

6.7, 26.3, 15.0, 30.9, 26.4, 6.6, 21.5, 11.4, 22.8, 15.1* 33.0*, 27.2*, 32.1*, 10.6 = 20.4 average prime age finals player rating. I can tell you from studying player's finals player ratings that any player who matches or betters this type of rating through his prime years will be doing extremely well.

*2020 ratings adjusted by multiplying *1.25 to account for shorter game time.

So to Dangerfield.

Some of his young years finals ratings are not available. But from 22 yo we have:

22yo 12, 14.5, 6.7 to give a 19-23yo average finals player rating for Dangerfield of 11.1.

From 24yo+ his finals went:

20.5, 18.5, 18.2, 24.0, 9.4, 14.3, 14.4, 6.5, 27.4, 17.1, 13.2, 17.0*, 27.25*, 5.75*, 13.4*, 14.7, 13.3, 14.1, 8.8, 16.2, 22.0. So in Dangerfield's prime aged 24yo+ finals his average rating was 16.0.

So Dangerfield actually has very strong ratings in finals, but suffers in comparison to Dusty who is a bit off the charts.

Your comparison of Dusty and Dangerfield in the 2017 finals series is just not broad enough, you have taken into account only disposals and goals scored. Even if you expand that to include just disposal efficiency and goal assists it gives a better comparison:

Dusty 26 disposals @ 74% efficiency, 4.3 goals + assists

Danger 27 disposals @ 55% efficiency, 2.3 goals + assists

When you even add that bit of detail all the ratings, voting and awards from the 2017 finals start to make better sense.

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Regarding your point about the 2020 season not counting due to being so unusual, I don't agree with that. Competitive matches were played. And definitely during the finals series all teams competing had a fair run at it. The best 2 teams in the 2020 finals series, Richmond and Geelong, were also the best 2 teams in the 2019 finals series, so the results look perfectly credible. There is no doubt the regular season in 2020 was not a perfectly level playing field for all teams, but the finals series was fair enough, probably a lot more credible than the 2021 finals series where some of the arrangements favoured certain teams over others.
 
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That is the best post I’ve ever seen on this site. 👏👏👏👏

Thanks for the correction re. Danger not being the 2022 GF AFLCA BOG. I don’t know how or why I thought that was the case. I thought the “fun fact” about his performance was that he didn’t win the Norm Smith but Jono Brown gave him his 3 votes and the coaches also thought he was best. Only the former is true.

Fascinating to me that neither Izzy or Paddy was statistically BOG that day; that was Chad Warner.

Also it was interesting to learn that Isaac has been a Norm Smith winner without being statistically BOG in 2022 and also been statistically BOG and not even close to winning it in 2015. At least he got a vote. It was amazing how many times the highest points player didn’t get any votes. Seriously WTF.

I can’t believe Houli was only 29th best statistically in 2017 with his AFLCA BOG performance or how unremarkable by this metric Cyril, ROK, JJ and Bobby were with their NSMs. It confirms the “eye test” part of watching sports. I remember how Gryan was statistically BOG in the 2022 PF but nobody wouldn’t have had Paddy as the best player that night by many light years. As you said this data only started in 2012 but IIRC by some other non-AFL sanctioned ranking point system Joel Selwood is comfortably BOG in the 2011 GF.

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Is this statement totally accurate?

FWIW. Just using a quick shallow analysis of basic statistics.

Paddy vs Dusty in September 2017

In the QF that they both played in Paddy had 31 touches and kicked a goal while Dusty had 28 with no goals.

Paddy then had 26 touches and kicked 4 against the Swans in the semi and in the PF against the Crows had 24 and 2.

Dusty had 20 and 3 in the PF and 29 and 2 in the GF.

AVERAGES

Paddy 27 touches and 2.3 goals.


Dusty 25.7 touches and 1.7.


Sure I get it. GF instead of SF and NSM and wins etc. But just on the simple fact of three finals their teams allowed them to play in, and judging the individual player output, in this series it didn’t give the upper hand to Martin.


The other issue I have is with the inclusion of 2020 performances. I’m of the school of thought that they just don’t count. This has nothing to do with Richmond or Dusty. I include my own players’ accomplishments in this season as not being legitimate as it wasn’t a real season. Cameron Guthrie you won a Geelong B&F and made the AA team? Nope. Tom Hawkins you won the Coleman? No, it doesn’t count. That season was just waaaaaaaaaaay too goofy to be considered legit IMO. My team made that GF and I wasn’t one millionth as interested in winning that contest as I was a regular GF.

I’m so hardline on the “2020 isn’t a real season” issue that I don’t even consider the Adelaide 2020 wooden spoon legit. IMO they’re still a club that has never won a real spoon.

I had the same thoughts way back in the day about the lockout 1999 NBA season.
Bit of revisionist history about the 2017 QF.

Yes Dangerfield had 31 touches, but went at 45% disposal efficiency. He kicked multiple out on the full and generally butchered the ball.

May have even been this match that spawned the nickname "Clangerfield".
 

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