I am not sure why you bother responding to someone who is not open to being educated
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AFLW 2024 - Round 6 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)
- Thread starter adammania9
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I am not sure why you bother responding to someone who is not open to being educated
The ignore list is a wonderful feature of this site
Felis catus nigrans
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Yep... when was anyone saying "Martin has to
Martin being 3 years younger in this comparison and having no accounting for the difference in difficulty in fixture?
Dusty is a great player but you can't "prove" he is the GOAT by comparing a nothing season from him to a nothing season for Ablett.
there is nothing Dusty could do, ever, that could prove to some Geelong fans that he is the goat
Not even having a season like no other statistically as a 32 year old after missing 2 years of football.
I guess that is the point. Strange don't you think ?
Lol. You must be late to the conversation.
That’s like saying that people are biased because there is nothing that could prove to them that 2+2=5.
Dusty will probably go down in the same vein as someone like Greg Williams - a huge big game player, a Brownlow winner, at times the best player in the league, and perhaps the best player in the history of his own club. He wasn’t as consistently dominant as Carey or GAJ, but holy shit that’s a high bar to set.
Those two and Fyfe probably define their era.
Noidnadroj
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Sorry… the relevance is that earlier in the thread about halfway through the season Martin’s 2023 was being compared unfavourably to Ablett’s season of 2019. So it was worth revisiting with a full season’s data. And I wouldn’t argue the fixture … Martin did it in a team 13th, GAJ was in the top of the ladder team.
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If Fyfe hadn't been injured for much of the past few years, or Freo had won a premiership, he'd be the clear frontrunner. Has two Brownlows as it is.
I'm over this thread and not buying in to it, but it does seem to be the place to acknowledge that Dusty has just made the All-Australian squad for the eighth time in the past ten seasons, with four AA blazers in the closet.
2014 - average: 25 disposals / 1.2 goals
2015 - 26/1.0
2016 - 31/0.4
2017 - 30/1.5
2018 - 25/1.4
2019 - 26/1.4
2020 - 21/1.1
2023 - 24/1.3
In 2021 Dusty played 16 games but was going at 22.5 disposals and 1.2 goals per game. A full season and he may have made the squad.
In 2022 Dusty played only 9 games, going at 18.3 and 1.3 goals per game.
You don't have to come at me with stats about other players with better or equal records. I recognise that already (for examples see below). Just choosing to highlight Dusty's consistency of performance across a long period of time, and how that is somewhat comparable to other modern greats. It also rubbishes any claims that he was only "good for four seasons".
Buddy 12 squads for 8 selections in 15 seasons
Pendlebury 11 for 6 in 12
GAJ 9 for 8 in 13
Selwood 9 for 6 in 9
Dangerfield 8 for 8 in 9
Ricciuto 8 for 8 in 12
S.Mitchell 7 for 3 in 10
Swan 6 for 5 in 7
Judd 6 for 6 in 8
Fyfe 6 for 3 in 10
Kennedy (Syd) 6 for 3 in 6
Goodes 5 for 4 in 9
2014 - average: 25 disposals / 1.2 goals
2015 - 26/1.0
2016 - 31/0.4
2017 - 30/1.5
2018 - 25/1.4
2019 - 26/1.4
2020 - 21/1.1
2023 - 24/1.3
In 2021 Dusty played 16 games but was going at 22.5 disposals and 1.2 goals per game. A full season and he may have made the squad.
In 2022 Dusty played only 9 games, going at 18.3 and 1.3 goals per game.
You don't have to come at me with stats about other players with better or equal records. I recognise that already (for examples see below). Just choosing to highlight Dusty's consistency of performance across a long period of time, and how that is somewhat comparable to other modern greats. It also rubbishes any claims that he was only "good for four seasons".
Buddy 12 squads for 8 selections in 15 seasons
Pendlebury 11 for 6 in 12
GAJ 9 for 8 in 13
Selwood 9 for 6 in 9
Dangerfield 8 for 8 in 9
Ricciuto 8 for 8 in 12
S.Mitchell 7 for 3 in 10
Swan 6 for 5 in 7
Judd 6 for 6 in 8
Fyfe 6 for 3 in 10
Kennedy (Syd) 6 for 3 in 6
Goodes 5 for 4 in 9
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The irony is actually shattering the screen on my phone
Totals, my friend, totals. You don't win points for missing games. I'm happy to allow for Martin's 20 games, even though in every other season he'd have finished on 19 (as there was a game fewer). And we're comparing their H&A as that's what's used for AA selection which is this whole argument.
The % of team score thing just isn't something that is ever used for analysis, it's binned.
Remember for score involvements, you loved my idea in the AA thread of removing unproductive ones (behinds) to clean up the data. "Great analysis" I was really delighted to hear that praise, so I've kept it the same for this one. Using the 50% estimation of team accuracy it gives a good read out of total goal involvements.
I can barely be bothered to do this, but I will for you - remove the 3 finals for Ablett and compare their tallies. This will be the final authoritative analysis on this topic (you'll try for a last word but it'll only make the extras on the DVD):
Home and Away: Martin 2023 vs Ablett 2019
Disposals: 472 vs 430 (Martin by 42)
Marks: 94 vs 80 (Martin by 14)
Goals: 25 vs 33 (Ablett by 8)
Goal assists: 15 vs 19 (Ablett by 4)
Tackles: 38 vs 94 (Ablett by 56)
Tackles inside 50: 10 vs 20 (Ablett by 10)
Inside 50’s: 100 vs 108 (Ablett by 8)
Rebound 50's: 7 vs 20 (Ablett by 13)
Contested: 195 vs 178 (Martin by 17)
Effective kicks: 311 vs 288 (Martin by 23)
Turnovers: 105 vs 99 (Ablett had 6 less)
Contested marks: 22 vs 8 (Martin by 14)
Clearances: 56 vs 46 (Martin by 10)
1%ers: 27 vs 14 (Martin by 13)
Productive score involvements: 132 vs 131 (Martin by 1)
Estimated goal involvements: 86 vs 92 (Ablett by 6)
Metres gained: 7466 vs 8217 (Ablett by 751m)
Finally tally: 8 (Martin) vs Ablett (9)
Goals, goal assists and total goal involvements I'd say are weighted a little more heavily than things like marks, clearances and 1%ers too.
So we have Ablett 2019 on top for volume of stats. We have two rounds of coaches votes to come, can Martin take the lead on those (number of times featuring, and total votes)? If he does then I guess we'll have to defer to Brownlow night as the tie breaker.
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It's fine to bring this up but Ablett quite obviously had seasons ruined by injury 2015-2017 with 11 games on average in those years.
I agree that Dusty has been consistent for good years befitting squad selection, but a few seasons weren't consistent enough for the best 22 selection, which is hardly a slight - but in terms of GOAT it is something to take not of. Maybe a lifetime achievement AA is coming up and brings him up to 5 AA selections which is pretty elite company.
The more that you keep bringing this up, the more that you come across as insecure in your conviction that he has had a better season. And the more heavily an emphasis you place on Martin tearing it up (more specifically in finals) across 2017-2020 merely due to being in a dominant side. And the more Ablett's Gold Coast cellar dwellar years get elevated for the same reason you are using here. Hell, Ablett had 4 years at GC averaging more goals than Martin's 2023 while playing as a permanent midfielder getting 30 disposals a game.
Careful...a balanced summation like this can only be possible because Martin's side won 3 finals against the club you support. Like Hodge and Mitchell for Hawthorn, who are also not the GOAT to Geelong supporters for the same reason.
Noidnadroj just so we know what we have to look forward to in the Coaches Votes battle, we currently have Martin with 6 for 30. 6 times featuring for 30 total votes. He should poll well in the last two games bringing him up to 8 for 50 in a best case scenario. I'm thinking 8 for 43 to 46.
Ablett in 2019 polled 10 times for 49 votes.
So we know Martin can't catch Ablett for number of times polling, but two perfect 10s will allow him to pip Ablett at the line for total votes.
I do have to stress two disclaimers:
1. Ablett was competing with Kelly, Dangerfield, Hawkins, Stewart, Selwood, Duncan, Blicavs and Guthrie for votes - 4 starting AAs in the best 22. Martin has competed with Taranto, Bolton, Short, Balta, Nankervis, Baker, Rioli and Vlastuin for votes - none even made the AA squad of 44.
2. Martin's vote tally was 6 for 30 while Richmond were a mathematical chance of finals. Dead rubbering on the last two games has brought his averages up and will add around 50-60% of his round 1-22 votes total. All of Ablett's votes came while his sides season was alive and indeed his hot start greatly contributed to the 11-1 opening run. 6 for 30 vs 10 for 50 when their sides seasons were alive.
The irony of the latter feature is that is massively contradicts with peak Dusty's main plus: a big time player who lifted in the important matches. For Richmond this year that would've been the opening run, especially once Lynch went down, so that they didn't have too much to do in the back end of the season. Dusty was still being rested for some of these vital games (the Brisbane and Bulldogs ones stand out) to get him fresh for the last two dead rubbers.
Once every 2 games polling for Ablett when the season was alive (and 2.45 votes per game) Vs once every 3 games polling (and 1.67 votes per game) for Martin in the same situation.
For the above situation in terms of a Brownlow count over a full 2023 season it'd be 56 Vs 38 votes in Ablett's favour. A pretty decisive victory for the "important H&A games" comparison.
Ablett in 2019 polled 10 times for 49 votes.
So we know Martin can't catch Ablett for number of times polling, but two perfect 10s will allow him to pip Ablett at the line for total votes.
I do have to stress two disclaimers:
1. Ablett was competing with Kelly, Dangerfield, Hawkins, Stewart, Selwood, Duncan, Blicavs and Guthrie for votes - 4 starting AAs in the best 22. Martin has competed with Taranto, Bolton, Short, Balta, Nankervis, Baker, Rioli and Vlastuin for votes - none even made the AA squad of 44.
2. Martin's vote tally was 6 for 30 while Richmond were a mathematical chance of finals. Dead rubbering on the last two games has brought his averages up and will add around 50-60% of his round 1-22 votes total. All of Ablett's votes came while his sides season was alive and indeed his hot start greatly contributed to the 11-1 opening run. 6 for 30 vs 10 for 50 when their sides seasons were alive.
The irony of the latter feature is that is massively contradicts with peak Dusty's main plus: a big time player who lifted in the important matches. For Richmond this year that would've been the opening run, especially once Lynch went down, so that they didn't have too much to do in the back end of the season. Dusty was still being rested for some of these vital games (the Brisbane and Bulldogs ones stand out) to get him fresh for the last two dead rubbers.
Once every 2 games polling for Ablett when the season was alive (and 2.45 votes per game) Vs once every 3 games polling (and 1.67 votes per game) for Martin in the same situation.
For the above situation in terms of a Brownlow count over a full 2023 season it'd be 56 Vs 38 votes in Ablett's favour. A pretty decisive victory for the "important H&A games" comparison.
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Noidnadroj
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You do realise you’re about the only person with footy stats that uses ‘totals’ and not averages don’t you? And in a yearly comparison not even mentioning AA, you’re the only person who’d remove 3 games from a players record for that year to run your analysis ……. when that starts happening you know you’re getting desperate and the numbers need some serious ‘manipulation’
What next ….maybe I’ll compare TT’s 2023 with Jordan DeGoey’s season ….total stats of course, not averages.
TT 2023 v JDG 2023:
Disposals: 662 v 431
Tackles: 154 v 62
Goals: 19 v 15
Clearances: 142 v 99
SI’s: 133 v 123
Metres gained: 8515 v 6662
I really can’t be bothered only comparing players who’ve played the exact same number of games, as that’s the only way to do it with ‘totals’ … you can remain the only poster on BF that does that. Knock yourself out. Enjoy.
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"This will be the final authoritative analysis on this topic (you'll try for a last word but it'll only make the extras on the DVD)"
Read the sign buddy. You don't get bonus points for your season contribution by missing games. Or else we'd be re-awarding a whole lot of Brownlow's and Coleman's. Did you know what Max King averaged more goals than Oscar Allen and Kyle Langford this season? It doesn't mean he had a higher impact year. Likewise Oliver as a top 5 mid for average disposals and top 8 for clearances. And yes, Taranto should've made the squad instead of JDG.
Once the coaches votes come out we'll have the final piece of data available for round 2.
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It's not about GAJ despite more GAJ whataboutism. It's funny because I don't recall you highlighting Dusty's injury woes in (possibly AA worthy) 2021 and nine game 2022 earlier this year when a lot of posters were calling him cooked? So how about we just let the record stand, because we could argue for days about Dusty not getting selected in 2019 (26 and 1.4) and probably some other years too.
Anyway, my point was only to highlight the elite performance that Dusty has been recognised for across a decade of football (with some damn handy seasons before that recognition kicked in (>22 and 1 in each of 2011/12/13)).
I've previously stated that I don't rate Dusty as the GOAT.
Noidnadroj
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Ablett was on fire when Cats were 10-1, no denying that.
In his last 13-games of the season as Geelong stopped dominating (after the 11-1 run) …. GAJ played 13 games including finals… he got 7 coaches votes including 5 v Blues (16th) in a 68-point win. A 13-game streak with barely a whimper. Outside the Blues thrashing, his other 12-games post thee 11- 1 run netted a grand total of 14 goals and goal assists.
But I can’t deny he had a great run of form when Cats were 11-1 and flying on top of the ladder. There were coaches votes galore being gobbled up by the Cats when 11-1 ….. 5-4-3-2-1’s everywhere .
It is funny you’re now listing a heap of stars from the Cats …. wasn’t 2017-2020 a weak era ? Now they have all these guns GAJ was competing with for votes.
Can’t make this stuff up.
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I'll take a player picking up votes every 2 games when his side can play finals over every 3 games. And I'll take one averaging 32% more votes per game when his side can play finals.
Those Cats are stars compared to 2023 Richmond. Which is a very low bar. Also, after those players the quality declined massively which is the whole reason, especially for finals - they were not the best team. This is yet another attempt at diversion from you that falls flat on its face. "34 year old Ablett was only great when the Cats were flying that year" is fair enough if "Martin 2017-2023 was only great when Richmond were flying" is true. Given he's been 26-32 years old during that time as opposed to 34, that would be a whole lot more damning on Martin.
During the great run it also makes sense that the 4 AA players I mentioned were going to be very, very tough to grab votes from. Overall having amazing top line stars in your team works both ways- your side will get more votes, but you have greater competition as far as getting those votes.
Since totals matter so much, and you don’t get a reward for missing games let’s compare dusty to GAJ at the same age
Let’s talk totals because totals matter
Dusty v GAJ
disposals. 472 v 378
goals. 25 v 10
Marks. 94 v 28
Si. 154 v 95
GA. 15. V 5
so I guess Dusty is at least twice the player GAJ was at the same age
The other totals that are important are the following
Premierships 3 v 2
Norm Smiths 3 v 0
Gary Ayers Medal 3 v 0
I guess that is why Dusty is the goat, and GAJ is not
Let’s talk totals because totals matter
Dusty v GAJ
disposals. 472 v 378
goals. 25 v 10
Marks. 94 v 28
Si. 154 v 95
GA. 15. V 5
so I guess Dusty is at least twice the player GAJ was at the same age
The other totals that are important are the following
Premierships 3 v 2
Norm Smiths 3 v 0
Gary Ayers Medal 3 v 0
I guess that is why Dusty is the goat, and GAJ is not
Noidnadroj
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Let’s analyse their performances in losses, as that’s a fair way to show how each performs when their team was not ‘flying’:
Martin’s 9 x 2023 losses v GAJ 8 x 2019 losses:
Disposals: 22.3 v 18.0 (Martin by 24%)
Goals: 1.11 v 0.88 (Martin by 26%)
Goal assists: 0.67 v 0.38 (Martin by 76%)
Tackles: 2.44 v 6.25 (Ablett by 256%)
Inside 50’s: 5.22 v 4.38 (Martin by 19%)
Clearances: 3.11 v 2.13 (Martin by 46%)
Clangers: 3.0 v 3.88 (Ablett by 22%)
Score inv: 8.0 v 4.88 (Martin by 64%)
Coaches votes : 0.89 v 0 (I’ve given Martin a conservative 4 for the Port game)
Brownlow : TBC v zero
So Gazza wins tackles and Clangers. Martin wins every other category by 19% or more.
Now given you don’t like including finals in the assessment of Gazza’s year, I’ve taken out their 2 x finals and compared H&A losses only:
Disposals: 22.3 v 17.67
Goals: 1.11 v 1.0
Goal assists: 0.67 v 0.5
Tackles: 2.44 v 6.83
Inside 50’s: 5.22 v 5.17
Clearances: 3.11 v 2.33
Clangers: 3.0 v 3.67
Score inv: 8.0 v 5.17
Coaches votes : 0.89 v 0 (I’ve given Martin a conservative 4 for the Port game)
Brownlow : TBC v zero
Martin wins every category again except tackles and clangers.
Oh, and in case you were wondering. Average losing margins for each team:
Richmond: 22.33
Geelong: 14.89
So was Martin better in losses … which came in R4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 20, 22, 24? Only by the length of the Flemington straight.
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You go on about performing in losses and performing in weak teams, you do realise Ablett was AA in teams that finished 17th (of 17), 17th, 14th and 12th? He was also AA in teams that finished 2nd, 2nd, 1st and 1st. He won a Brownlow in a premiership year, and a year where his team finished 14th. He won MVPs at the top and at the bottom.
In two consecutive years where the GC won only 6 of 44 games, he was AA twice and league MVP once, finishing 3rd in the other season, and finished 5th and 3rd in the Coaches Votes despite playing less games than all of those above him bar one.
So if you’re hinting at Ablett only performing in wins or good teams, you’re barking up the wrong
He performed in multiple years at an elite level in both great teams and terrible teams. Martin’s best years have been more concentrated around Richmond’s peak.
