Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[Fadge]

You are a mess Fadge. Others in this era simply haven't been consistently good enough at winning the ball and getting it through the goals.

Don't get so defensive.

I accepted he was on the same rung as players in different eras who consistently reached the same high levels that is 20 and 1 - those players being Garry Wilson and Brent Harvey (despite those players doing it more frequently).

I'm not the one who continually raises this obscure statistic, you're targeting the wrong poster.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Don't get so defensive.

I accepted he was on the same rung as players in different eras who consistently reached the same high levels that is 20 and 1 - those players being Garry Wilson and Brent Harvey (despite those players doing it more frequently).

I'm not the one who continually raises this obscure statistic, you're targeting the wrong poster.

I am playing the post not the poster. Ok, engaging in a bit of Pendlebury bashing along the way, but you have to have some fun.



It is not an obscure stat. It signifies an important role in modern football and we can see that the clubs these guys play for have won 4 of the last 6 flags, largely as a result of their damaging play midfield and forward in Martin and Petracca's cases. There are 121 players who averaged more than 20 disposals in 2023. And 93 players who averaged a goal or more per game.

But only 3 players have managed to combine the 2. The best 3 mid-forwards in the sport.

Bolton 21.7 disposals & 1.4 goals(+ 0.8 assists) +9.7 contested possessions

Martin 23.6 disposals & 1.2 goals(+ 0.8 assists) +9.8 contested possessions

Petracca 27.9 disposals & 1.2 goals(+1.1 assists) + 13.9 contested possessions

These guys are getting goal and goal assist numbers comfortably above an average forward. And possession numbers of an average inside mid. In Petracca's case, well above average. It is not easy to sustain that over a whole season, clearly. So for people to claim most of Dusty's non-Premiership seasons are anything but elite is patently ludicrous. Fortunately our man Noidnadroj is on the ball with this to explain it to the masses who don't understand.

 

[Fadge]

I am playing the post not the poster. Ok, engaging in a bit of Pendlebury bashing along the way, but you have to have some fun.



It is not an obscure stat. It signifies an important role in modern football and we can see that the clubs these guys play for have won 4 of the last 6 flags, largely as a result of their damaging play midfield and forward in Martin and Petracca's cases. There are 121 players who averaged more than 20 disposals in 2023. And 93 players who averaged a goal or more per game.

But only 3 players have managed to combine the 2. The best 3 mid-forwards in the sport.

Bolton 21.7 disposals & 1.4 goals(+ 0.8 assists) +9.7 contested possessions

Martin 23.6 disposals & 1.2 goals(+ 0.8 assists) +9.8 contested possessions

Petracca 27.9 disposals & 1.2 goals(+1.1 assists) + 13.9 contested possessions

These guys are getting goal and goal assist numbers comfortably above an average forward. And possession numbers of an average inside mid. In Petracca's case, well above average. It is not easy to sustain that over a whole season, clearly. So for people to claim most of Dusty's non-Premiership seasons are anything but elite is patently ludicrous. Fortunately our man Noidnadroj is on the ball with this to explain it to the masses who don't understand.

Lovely.

So the fact that two of these unicorns represented the Richmond Football Club this season, surely this means Richmond are red hot faves for the 2023 flag, right?

No you say?

They didn't even qualify for finals, you say?

Wowee. It's almost as though it takes the combined effort of more than one or two players to contend for a premiership?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Lovely.

So the fact that two of these unicorns represented the Richmond Football Club this season, surely this means Richmond are red hot faves for the 2023 flag, right?

No you say?

They didn't even qualify for finals, you say?

Wowee. It's almost as though it takes the combined effort of more than one or two players to contend for a premiership?

You are not saying anything here. If they perform these feats in a great team and carry their club to a flag you are saying they can only do it in a strong team, and Ablett was great in a weak team etc. When they do it in a team that isn't functioning so well you are saying they failed to carry their weak team to flag favouritism.

This type of player is a massive asset to a finals team. As we will no doubt see with Petracca.

It doesn't matter what type of player you are, you won't be able to single handedly guarantee constant team success. These are the type of players though, along with gun key forwards(let's see how Curnow gets on) who are extremely hard to defend in finals. It should tell you all you need to know that 2 of the 3 players above 20 + 1 average this year have been in reality the most dominant player in 4 of the last 6 finals series, and the other one was too young to be that influential when his team was in serious contention. It is no coincidence.

 

[Felis catus nigrans]

And they are objective, measurable stats. Who's to know if CD come up with some bizarre process for assigning quality of X, Y or Z based on the team played or whether it's Tuesday or whatever else - they are not definitively objective because we don't know what they are.

We can both see the stats in the examples I have shown. Neither of us can know what goes into the CD ranking.

We have all watched the footy.

He has 11 x seasons of averaging 20+ disposals and 1+ goal. The only people I could find in history with more are Lethal, KB, Garry Wilson and Boomer Harvey, all with 13.

So there’s 11 x elite seasons just for starters. If you don’t think it’s elite … 3 players have done it in 2023. Judd did it 3 times. Danger 6. It’s not very common.

The 3 x seasons he hasn’t done it?

2010: His debut season. He averaged 20.5 touches and 0.5 goals - amazing debut year.

*in his second season of 2011 he averaged 22.1 touches and 1.5 x goals and 0.9 goal assists with 4.2 I50’s and 3.7 clearances. Uber elite in just his second season. As a comparison, Rozee in 2023 averages 26 / 0.9 / 0.7 / 6 / 3.7. So Martin with 4 less touches but 2.4 goals and goal assists to 1.6, with the same clearances. That’s an Uber elite second season.

2016: Played exclusively midfield. Averaged 31 touches and 0.4 goals. Finished 3rd in the Brownlow and 3rd in coaches votes. Won the B&F and made AA.

2022: lost his Dad and had time out of the game. Came back and did a 10-week hammy. He played only 9 games and averaged 18.3 touches and 1.3 goals.

So of his 14 seasons he was elite in 12 of them, and 2010 was his debut year where he was elite for a first year player. His only year not top shelf was 2022 where he played 9 games for reasons well known.

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

you’ve named Lethal and three players who were all great but I have never heard anywhere near a GOAT conversation (though all much lauded) in my life.

 

[Fadge]

You are not saying anything here. If they perform these feats in a great team and carry their club to a flag you are saying they can only do it in a strong team, and Ablett was great in a weak team etc. When they do it in a team that isn't functioning so well you are saying they failed to carry their weak team to flag favouritism.

This type of player is a massive asset to a finals team. As we will no doubt see with Petracca.

It doesn't matter what type of player you are, you won't be able to single handedly guarantee constant team success. These are the type of players though, along with gun key forwards(let's see how Curnow gets on) who are extremely hard to defend in finals. It should tell you all you need to know that 2 of the 3 players above 20 + 1 average this year have been in reality the most dominant player in 4 of the last 6 finals series, and the other one was too young to be that influential when his team was in serious contention. It is no coincidence.

FFS.

Don't compare your guys to Ablett.

He won a Brownlow and multiple League MVP's in a weak team.

Your boys can't even crack it for an AA guernsey, and are well down the list in Coaches votes, MVP and Brownlow.

Clearly, as is the case for Richmond this year - the 20 and 1 stat is a very convenient one to talk up your boys when their seasons were far from spectacular.

How many flags did Wilson and Harvey drive their teams to with their bakers dozens of 20 and 1 seasons?

 

[jakson68]

4 good seasons… FMD. He’s been named in the AA squad eight times, made the team four times and been contentiously left out twice (2019, 2023). Previous to that he was twice selected in the 22 under 22 team.

Maybe recalculate Dusty’s Gary Ayres tallies with the 150% loading. Oh, just means he won by more.

Twice in the under 22 team, that is pretty good!

Nick is already in there twice and also captain.
By the time he is 23, he will have 4 under 22 teams and quite possibly 4 AA teams.

Imagine what he may be at 25. Chances are, he will have Dusty well covered.

They will be comparing him to the all-time greats.
You know the ones, Ablett, Mathews ect.

 

[Rich01]

Ablett JNR should be undisputed goat. The problem is he forwent this status because like his dad, he chose the cash above individual accolades.

And that’s ok and understandable.

But it’s a real shame because he could have imprinted himself as the games undisputed best by taking a couple of hundred grand a year less at the cats each year, and recouped it multiple times over in his retirement years.

Instead he took the cash early. I’m sure he’s isn’t complaining, unlike his dad who believes the game owes him more for his performances.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Out of respect for you as a reasonably respectful poster yourself I will leave the other stuff but David king forms his opinions from figures that many people don’t know even exist, and as I’ve said for a long time he looks at statistics and then scours games to find examples of those numbers being manifested to back up his point.
The best analysis imo - whether it’s for Martin or against him, for other players or against them - is done in the reverse.

Analysts who watch a game and go ‘wow it looked like so and so was really prominent defensively tonight’ or ‘gee this player seemed to hit every target he aimed at’ then they get the data, work out that said player indeed went at 90 per cent by foot and they make their point.

There’s always contentious calls and in 2023 having missed 3 games and Richmond finishing 13th I think Martin was 50/50 - could’ve easily been selected. Libba was a very unlucky non-selection also. I felt Charlie Cameron was lucky given he played 16 x poor or average games (16 games with 0, 1 or 2 goals with less than 12 touches).

But 2019 was a huge shafting. Martin finished 6th in the Brownlow and 12th in coaches votes. He was the 4th highest rated played in the competition and Richmond finished 3rd. Not 3rd rated for his position … overall. So ratings aren’t everything, Brownlow votes aren’t everything, coaches votes aren’t everything, stats aren’t everything, team performance isn’t everything … but when u have all 5 ticked and still miss.

I thought maybe I was ‘misremembering’ 2019 H&A season so checked a few ‘phantom teams’ and here was the three I found :

—————
Here is a Tom Morris article prior to selection.

“The first seven names written down took minimal consideration…..

A further six were relatively straight-forward: Harris Andrews, Charlie Cameron, Marcus Bontempelli, Patrick Dangerfield, Dustin Martin and Grundy.

That left nine positions to fill. I wanted one forward, two midfielders and one utility on the bench. Lachie Whitfield was unlucky to miss and probably only did because of injury — ditto the uber-consistent Dayne Zorko — while Mark Blicavs was next in line for the utility role on the bench.”

——————-
Part of a Jake Niall article:

“Only six players – Patrick Cripps, Patrick Dangerfield, Dustin Martin, Shannon Hurn and his teammate and fellow defender Jeremy McGovern and Collingwood's rucking colossus Brodie Grundy – have been picked from the 2018 All-Australian team in my side, a measure of how hard it's become for even the elite players to have repeat entries.”

—————
ESPN’s comment with Martin part of their predicted team:

“Dustin Martin (Richmond): He started slowly but has come storming home like freight train - there's an argument to be made that he's again the best player in the league after a dominant second half of the season. The dynamic Tiger is the epitome of a dual threat, able to dominate from the midfield or forward, ranking second for inside 50s per game, eighth in score involvements and fourth in total inside 50s.”


I remember the time and I don’t think he was in any doubt to be selected on any measure.

He was certainly not a unanimous selection in 2023 and I don’t feel he was shafted this year, moreso just one of 4-5 very unlucky players, along with Libba, Viney, Andrews and Weitering.

So some players and/or teams seem to get the ‘rub of the green’ with final team selections, other don’t. There’s no harm in that, it’s just the way it is.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Meteoric Rise]

FFS.

Don't compare your guys to Ablett.

He won a Brownlow and multiple League MVP's in a weak team.

Your boys can't even crack it for an AA guernsey, and are well down the list in Coaches votes, MVP and Brownlow.

Clearly, as is the case for Richmond this year - the 20 and 1 stat is a very convenient one to talk up your boys when their seasons were far from spectacular.

How many flags did Wilson and Harvey drive their teams to with their bakers dozens of 20 and 1 seasons?

You are talking in cliches to avoid addressing the point here.

Players don't have 20+ disposal and 1+ goal average seasons in the modern context without their season being elite.

Dusty has had all time seasons. He has done it all. The point being addressed here is precisely the seasons that weren't headline grabbing. Almost all of them were still elite. Clearly.

A guide to this is Dusty's last 2 seasons. Jeremy Cameron was widely being heralded as the best player in the game last season(why, beats the **** out of me.) But he was. He was AA. Champion Data rates Dusty's 2023 season better than Cameron's 2022 season. And guess what, on average performance they rate Dusty's badly hampered 2022 season above Cameron's 2023 season.

The 20 and 1 stat is exactly as you said, a very convenient one for us to be able to demonstrate how well Dusty is performing. Martin's season was solid to very good, until it was amazing. In his last 7 matches - which would have been heading into finals if Richmond were good enough to make it, he rated almost 19 ratings points on average. If that wasn't AFL #1 it would have been very close. You seem to need media hype around what a player is doing in order for you to recognise any achievement or performance. Or ready one dimensional stats like just goals or just disposals. There is a new order in footy Fadge. These players who can dominate around the centre and forward on the ground and hit the scoreboard are driving their teams to Premierships. Only you were too busy fapping over cue ball to notice.

I wouldn't be using AA selection as any delineator between players, it is farcically corrupted.

 

[Fadge]

So when Richmond make finals and win premierships, it's the result of Martin single-handedly carrying them to victory.

But when Richmond fail to make finals, it's because the 'team' weren't good enough to make it.

MR, there aren't enough sharks in this world for you to keep jumping over...

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So when Richmond make finals and win premierships, it's the result of Martin single-handedly carrying them to victory.

But when Richmond fail to make finals, it's because the 'team' weren't good enough to make it.

MR, there aren't enough sharks in this world for you to keep jumping over...

Nice. Only I have never said Richmond's Premierships were the result of Martin single-handedly carrying them to victory. Where did you get that from?

You are spewing because you declared Martin deceased and he came back to life at 32 with a season rated second amongst general forwards and 5th amongst all forwards. And he did this with a really consistent season. In a weaker than average team.

You need to just acknowledge his performance for what it was, a truly elite season clearly well above what you expected. Otherwise you just destroy your own credibility.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Yup

Yup

Yup

So you think Damgerfield has been a better player than Martin?

 

[Fadge]

Nice. Only I have never said Richmond's Premierships were the result of Martin single-handedly carrying them to victory. Where did you get that from?

You are spewing because you declared Martin deceased and he came back to life at 32 with a season rated second amongst general forwards and 5th amongst all forwards. And he did this with a really consistent season. In a weaker than average team.

You need to just acknowledge his performance for what it was, a truly elite season clearly well above what you expected. Otherwise you just destroy your own credibility.

Here we go, CD ratings again, the world in which Jack Sinclair is the best player in the competition. For two consecutive seasons.

If Martin was in fact the 5th best forward in the competition this year, the AA selectors would have been duty bound to find a place for him in the team.

But he wasn't. So they didn't.

It was a good season from Martin. A season in which his best work was done once the horse had bolted for Richmond.

When I redo my Pendlebury and Martin season by season rankings, this season from Martin will likely slot very comfortably between Pendlebury's 9th and 10th best seasons, meaning Martin will elevate from having 8 of the best 20 seasons, to 9 of the best 20 seasons from their respective careers.

(Pendlebury's 9th best season was a 15 Brownlow vote, 62 coaches vote, AA Squad and 3rd in Club B&F year)

But of course, first we need to wait to see how Pendlebury performs in finals before we perform that assessment...

 

[blaisee]

Here is some stuff you might like Roby that shows just how ******* ludicrously biased the AA process has been since Cats started winning anything.

2007 - current

Geelong 4 flags, made finals 15 times. 58 AA selections, AA Captains x 5, AA Vice-Captains x 3

V

2 x DYNASTY teams Hawthorn and Richmond COMBINED 7 flags, made finals 19 times combined, 43 AA selections combined, AA Captains x 2, AA Vice-Captains x 0.


That is so hilariously biased you can only laugh at it.

What a joke

 

[demondavey]

No, I’m not celebrating almost AA jumpers. I’m disproving the morons who suggest Dusty has only had “four good seasons”. If making the AA squad, notionally the best 44 players throughout a season, is only good then I guess making the AA team can only be considered very good.

If you can’t reasonably see that there has been debate in both 2019 and 2023 about Dusty’s omission from the AA side then I can’t help you. Dusty was picked in plenty of the media teams this year (and probably more in 2019) while also missing out in plenty. Maybe if one or two of the AA panel were swapped out for a David King type (who thought Dusty should’ve been AA this year) then Dusty would have been in the side. Either way Dusty’s selection this year would have been contentious.

In both 2019 and 2023 I would imagine Dusty was in the top few to not be selected… close but not close enough.

Plenty of players miss out every year when they shouldn’t.

 

[demondavey]

Here is some stuff you might like Roby that shows just how ******* ludicrously biased the AA process has been since Cats started winning anything.

2007 - current

Geelong 4 flags, made finals 15 times. 58 AA selections, AA Captains x 5, AA Vice-Captains x 3

V

2 x DYNASTY teams Hawthorn and Richmond COMBINED 7 flags, made finals 19 times combined, 43 AA selections combined, AA Captains x 2, AA Vice-Captains x 0.


That is so hilariously biased you can only laugh at it.

Biased? You actually can’t be serious.

From 2007 - current Geelong has won 4 flags, lost two and been top 4 virtually every year. Finals were missed only twice.

Hawthorn were only up for 5 years. 12-16. Richmond have only been consistently top 4 for 4 years.

The only thing that’s biased is your view that Geelong shouldn’t have that many inclusions over a 16 year period. I mean you’ve absolutely done yourself over here. AA aren’t about picking players from dynasty teams, by your logic you’d think that every Richmond or Hawthorn player should be picked in their flag years to even it out because you’ve got a biased view.

 

[BF Tiger]

Unfortunately, being in the best 44 players of your era doesn't get you in consideration for GOAT.

I’ve previously stated that I don’t think Dusty is the GOAT. Keep up.

 

[blaisee]

So when Richmond make finals and win premierships, it's the result of Martin single-handedly carrying them to victory.

But when Richmond fail to make finals, it's because the 'team' weren't good enough to make it.

MR, there aren't enough sharks in this world for you to keep jumping over...

Look if there is a debate on this you could finalize it by submitting your ratings to decide

Please consider .

 

[RUNVS]

Just when I thought this thread might have nothing left to give, we now have melting over “AA bias” from triggered tiggers.
Thank you. Never change.

I could be wrong but as a percentage I think players from Victorian clubs are picked at a slightly higher level than non-Victorian clubs, taking into account there are more Victorian teams too.

 

[blaisee]

Biased? You actually can’t be serious.

From 2007 - current Geelong has won 4 flags, lost two and been top 4 virtually every year. Finals were missed only twice.

Hawthorn were only up for 5 years. 12-16. Richmond have only been consistently top 4 for 4 years.

The only thing that’s biased is your view that Geelong shouldn’t have that many inclusions over a 16 year period. I mean you’ve absolutely done yourself over here. AA aren’t about picking players from dynasty teams, by your logic you’d think that every Richmond or Hawthorn player should be picked in their flag years to even it out because you’ve got a biased view.

You are defending the indefensible

Completely ridiculous that you have picked this hill to die on

 

[demondavey]

You are defending the indefensible

Completely ridiculous that you have picked this hill to die on

You’re full of shit if you think Geelong haven’t warranted more AA than Richmond and Hawthorn. Happy to debate with you all day. Richmond fans are insufferable on this website. Everything has to be about Richmond. Go to your own board for your circle jerking.

 

[blaisee]

You’re full of s**t if you think Geelong haven’t warranted more AA than Richmond and Hawthorn. Happy to debate with you all day. Richmond fans are insufferable on this website. Everything has to be about Richmond. Go to your own board for your circle jerking.

Not interested in debating anything with you

You are too far gone

Your takes are absurd.

 

[demondavey]

Not interested in debating anything with you

You are too far gone

Your takes are absurd.

My takes are absurd? Look at yours, debating the merits of Geelong having more AA representatives from 2007 to current than Hawks or Tigers just because in that period you won three, Hawthorn won four and Geelong won four.

Also, in that period, Geelong have been a constant top four side!

Your bias and one eyed nature is everything but rationale and logical.

 

[Fadge]

You’re full of s**t if you think Geelong haven’t warranted more AA than Richmond and Hawthorn. Happy to debate with you all day. Richmond fans are insufferable on this website. Everything has to be about Richmond. Go to your own board for your circle jerking.

If they actually critically analysed the data, it is patently clear why Geelong have produced more All-Australians than Hawthorn and Richmond combined.

But we know the Richmond supporters on this thread are nowhere near capable of doing that.