Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[fr_303]

And on the argument of winning 15 and missing finals, we can win 15 and finish top if results go our way too. so LETS DO IT.

Then win the whole damn thing.

 

[Lawsy]

​

Never said it will happen, was just answering the question from Walshawk "I don’t think it is possible to win 15 and miss." Was just showing it is possible , there is multiple scenario's of 15 wins not getting in the 8. Now in all likely hood of that happening this year is .0000001% but it is still possible. I think the Bulldogs have a nice run and potentially can win 5 (dependent on the Swans game) which gets them in + they have good %. So 2 of the teams in the 8 need to have poor ends to the season. Which current teams will drop out?

The Scum and Port will be the teams we'll overtake that are currently in the 8

 

[Sirlemsip]

Looking at recent performances across the comp and running some alternate pathways through the ladder predictor, there is every chance that our last round match against North is one of the following two scenarios:

1. Need to win the game to make finals, any margin will do as its just about the premiership points; OR

2. Need to win the game by a significant margin (5-6 goals) to make up percentage required to make finals.


In either case it will become a very, very interesting game.

 

[TylerDurden]

 

[peetoo]

​

Never said it will happen, was just answering the question from Walshawk "I don’t think it is possible to win 15 and miss." Was just showing it is possible , there is multiple scenario's of 15 wins not getting in the 8. Now in all likely hood of that happening this year is .0000001% but it is still possible. I think the Bulldogs have a nice run and potentially can win 5 (dependent on the Swans game) which gets them in + they have good %. So 2 of the teams in the 8 need to have poor ends to the season. Which current teams will drop out?

After 18 games in 2023, 2 teams dropped out WB on 40 and Gee on 38. Replaces eventually by Carl on 38 and Sydney on 34pts

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

Another 90K+ game?

 

[Paul Kersey]

The Scum and Port will be the teams we'll overtake that are currently in the 8

They're the two which I think will drop out.

 

[Kanga Commando]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Sydney	19	4	0	141.3%
2.	Brisbane Lions	16	6	1	121.3%
3.	Carlton	16	7	0	114.6%
4.	Fremantle	15	7	1	115.7%
5.	Western Bulldogs	14	9	0	119.4%
6.	Geelong	14	9	0	107.8%
7.	Hawthorn	14	9	0	106.1%
8.	GWS	13	10	0	109.4%
9.	Gold Coast	12	11	0	106.6%
10.	Port Adelaide	12	11	0	100.4%
11.	Melbourne	12	11	0	99.0%
12.	Essendon	11	11	1	95.1%
13.	St Kilda	10	13	0	98.6%
14.	Collingwood	9	12	2	95.8%
15.	Adelaide	7	15	1	97.2%
16.	North Melbourne	5	18	0	71.9%
17.	West Coast	3	20	0	69.7%
18.	Richmond	2	21	0	61.6%

QF1: Sydney v FREMANTLE
QF2: BRISBANE LIONS v Carlton
EF1: WESTERN BULLDOGS v GWS
EF2: Geelong v HAWTHORN

SF1: SYDNEY v Western Bulldogs
SF2: Carlton v HAWTHORN

PF1: Fremantle v HAWTHORN
PF2: BRISBANE LIONS v Sydney

GF: HAWTHORN v Brisbane Lions


What I came up with

EF2 == “when it matters”

 

[theiaofseed]

If our season is still alive, easily 80k will attend.

 

[peetoo]

View attachment 2056450

Brisbane freo then swans at the MCG

 

[Xtreme]

A lot has to go right

Hawthorn's form
Hawthorn's injury status

Relying on other teams to fall like dominoes.

It's another development year but the chance of finals footy has to be grabbed with both hands.

View attachment 2056450

Premiership or bust 2024!!

 

[mustang]

Mark Robinson on AFL 360 think Hawthorn this year reminds him of the Baby Bombers of 1993, Not sure I want Hawthorn in the same breath as Scum but they did win a flag with kids.

 

[Flukey!]

I’ll put my right one down. No team with 15 wins (or 60 pts) misses out

Agreed.
What is nice about how this season is unfolding is that if you play finals this year it’s because you deserve to.

In past years teams have qualified with just over a 50% win rate which is just making up numbers.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Yes, a very close season like this really does highlight the inequities in the fixture. At least we've had double ups against both Tigers and North. Our draw looked pretty hard at the start of the year relative to our ladder position, and we had a relatively rough start, but I wouldn't be surprised if it improved as the year went on, given some of our double ups have been against teams that have fallen from last year (e,g Tigers and Pies), and we'll only play the current top 2 once.

It is not easy to fix the draw with the number of teams in the competition, but they could do a better job by trying to at least even it out over a window that is greater than a season by throwing out the idea of using the ladder as an equalisation factor which is just silly. Where you finish should never dictate who you play. The key metric should be playing teams an equal number of times and evening up home vs away, obviously that can't be done in a single season, but they could write the fixture over a multi-year period. TV rights is probably a big reason why they don't want to do that, as had to predict the blockbusters for Friday night multiple years in advance (for example).

I tell what I find frustrating and that's having to double up playing the away venue in the same season. Playing both Port and the Crows at AO for eg. If it was fair and equitable system you play once there for the year and you play the other tenant once at the G. Could be just me that has an issue with it but still.

 

[tommyk72]

I tell what I find frustrating and that's having to double up playing the away venue in the same season. Playing both Port and the Crows at AO for eg. If it was fair and equitable system you play once there for the year and you play the other tenant once at the G. Could be just me that has an issue with it but still.

Good chance to go back to the venue and show the lessons we’ve learned.

 

[Crankyhawk]

I tell what I find frustrating and that's having to double up playing the away venue in the same season. Playing both Port and the Crows at AO for eg. If it was fair and equitable system you play once there for the year and you play the other tenant once at the G. Could be just me that has an issue with it but still.

Generally you’d play at least one of the sides twice so there’s the chance of the double travel (we had crows at the g earlier)

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Generally you’d play at least one of the sides twice so there’s the chance of the double travel (we had crows at the g earlier)

Yes but the double up should have been Port if as I said it's a fair and equitable system.

 

[grumbleguts]

Mods on this board are always betting their left testicle on stuff.

They bet their right a few years ago and sadly...

 

[Crankyhawk]

Yes but the double up should have been Port if as I said it's a fair and equitable system.

Why would we then get 2 home games? Sometimes it’s 2 away and1 home out of the 2 non vic sides, it is what it is. We got 2 home and 1 away from the nsw sides

 

[Harper_Hawk]

Why not us. Finals or premiership. Just why not. Some would say be realistic whilst others would say why not. Is the glass half empty or half full?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TylerDurden]

Why not us. Finals or premiership. Just why not. Some would say be realistic whilst others would say why not. Is the glass half empty or half full?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

That question will be answered in 3 weeks.

 

[Nugett]

That question will be answered in 3 weeks.

Don’t you mean 9 weeks and four days, while the baby Hawks are celebrating our 14th Cup?

 

[tommyk72]

Can we get the thread title updated please? Should be "Can the Hawks win the flag".

 

[Cyril says]

If Saints beat Essendon*, Carlton beats Port by 50 and we beat Adelaide by 50, we will be in the 8 in 4 days’ time.

It’s not impossible.

 

[TylerDurden]

Saints won't beat the Dons.