Preview Changes & Preview Thread for QF2, 2024 vs Geelong

[Tibbs]

I’m not seeing an elbow

There is no elbow .. Dude is just stupidly sticking to his guns despite clear evidence to the contrary.

Marshall clearly has an issue with ANY contact to his head. It has significantly affected his confidence, and his future in the game. Sad, but its the reality.

 

[El_Scorcho]

The stat they are looking at is offensive 1on1s, specifically % won.

Esava is second in our team at 40%, only behind JHF at 50%. Todd languishes at 22% behind literally every other forward we have including Lord (23%), Finlayson (30%), Mitch (28%), Dixon (31%).

For context, Esava’s 40% is top 5 in the league for key forwards albeit on a small sample size.

I've had a look at this stat previously and I'm not sure that it really correlates with good key forward play. There are plenty of very good KPFs with lower %s than Todd, and plenty of average key forwards who do well in this stat.

The average KPF getting in about 2.5 offensive 1v1s per game, so even a 20% difference isn't much at all in the scheme of things.

 

[El_Scorcho]

There is no elbow .. Dude is just stupidly sticking to his guns despite clear evidence to the contrary.

Marshall clearly has an issue with ANY contact to his head. It has significantly affected his confidence, and his future in the game. Sad, but its the reality.

lmao there's a clear elbow and Marshall immediately grabs at the back of his head in the spot where the elbow hits.

You don't happen to operate the AFL Score Review system do you?

 

[240volt]

This is a still image. The elbow in question is pictured next to Marshall's head.

I see an elbow above his head. I froze this from the tape at the highest point.
Bottom line it’s no four arm smash, basically a marking contest you see a hundred times in a game.
I wanted Marshall traded years ago but if he’s getting concussed from just doing something that happens throughout a game it’s not good for his long term health.

Since these head knocks started his form has dropped off unfortunately.
This can’t and won’t go on for the next 5 years or whatever his contract is.

 

[PJ Power]

Massive selection dilemmas in front of us.

We do have options though.

 

[240volt]

Massive selection dilemmas in front of us.

We do have options though.

There’s always options, when someone goes down it’s up to someone to stand up.
I’m no Sinn fan but I get the feeling he’s going to have to be the one that stands up.

 

[Lefti93]

Where's finals Bonner when you need him lol.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I think we have to play Sinn as well. He's the most obvious replacement for the role. We need to hope Sinn and Burton have the months of their lives.

 

[The Hobo]

Ratugolea averages a 35% offensive 1v1 contest win rate and a score involvement percentage of 14.2% over the last 5 games.

Marshall averages 22% and 20.6% in the same categories for the entire season.

I think it illustrates that, whilst Ratugolea might be more pleasing to the eye, Marshall is ultimately a more effective forward and provides a greater direct contribution to the scoring power of the team. I couldn't find stats on contests halved so it's difficult to determine who "brings the ball to ground" more.

35% vs 22% 1v1 contest win rate is quite significant - particularly considering our game plan. He also seems to offer far more defensive pressure - seeing him run around chasing people in our forward 50 is awesome.

Remember - in the last 5 games we have played Freo (without Visentini), Adelaide (With Burton), Sydney, Carlton and Richmond (where Rat played defence, as we had Lord, Dixon, Georgie all playing)

So one of those games shouldn't be counted and impacts the score involvement % heavily, and also the fact we've had a makeshift fwd line over those weeks also plays a part.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Sinn in for Farrell
Dixon in for Visentini

Narkle/McEntee, whatever they decide.

This side has been more than the sum of its parts for the past 6 weeks or so, trust the players to play their roles.

 

[backtozero]

lmao there's a clear elbow and Marshall immediately grabs at the back of his head in the spot where the elbow hits.

You don't happen to operate the AFL Score Review system do you?

You may be right about elbow contact, but it's not clear from the footage available.
You can't see the angle of the Melbourne player's arm from the side on shot and the shot from behind is too grainy and too far away.

You're seeing what you want to see, as are others probably. What we do know, however, is that the contact looked to be at the lighter end of the scale. This type of contact happens in marking contests all the time.

 

[Lefti93]

There’s always options, when someone goes down it’s up to someone to stand up.
I’m no Sinn fan but I get the feeling he’s going to have to be the one that stands up.

Neither Sinn or Williams fill me with any confidence. Williams from last year would've been fine. Sinn being taken over as an emergency probably means he's closer than Williams, J Carr also mentioned him too.

 

[Minotaur2]

Neither Sinn or Williams fill me with any confidence. Williams from last year would've been fine. Sinn being taken over as an emergency probably means he's closer than Williams, J Carr also mentioned him too.

Williams has been terrible whenever he has played this year.
Sinn has been ok-ish - he lost his place through injury from memory.
Farrell a massive loss. WHo would have said that 2 years ago?

 

[afl2004]

04 had great kicks everywhere this team does not

 

[ClintEastwood]

The forward line has been poor, especially the tall forwards. We had a spectacular win against Sydney, but the last 3 games have been battling wins against bottom 10 opposition where the key forwards have failed to fire.

Bombing the ball in high and long to bollard key forwards hasn't worked in our last several finals series and it won't work this time.

Yeah, nah. With Tissue-paper Todd our forward line function has looked like this for a long time.



With Charlie-Esava-George:

• Ball goes in
• Ball either marked by us or spills for Willy, JHF et al
• We either goal or trap in in forward line

Carry on.

 

[Skindy]

There is no elbow .. Dude is just stupidly sticking to his guns despite clear evidence to the contrary.

Marshall clearly has an issue with ANY contact to his head. It has significantly affected his confidence, and his future in the game. Sad, but its the reality.

Clear issue that has resulted in one singular concussion incident this season?

His number of concussions over the past few seasons are starting to add up but the hyperbole is ridiculous.

 

[drcollossimo]

Forget hypotheticals guys

Should we play Marshall ? No because he’s an injury liability and even if he isn’t HE will be aware of his history

Will we play Marshall? Yes because Ken likes him and generally selects him whenever he’s available

In other topics I personally don’t think we bring Sinn in he’s only showing glimpses of top shelf performance expecting him to step up in a backline that already has a 10 gamer in it is too much of a stretch

DBJ to HB and Narkle to DBJs slot imho

Or Williams onto HB outright

 

[Schulzenfest]

The thought of playing Josh Sinn in finals is terrifying. He's never shown anything to suggest he's remotely ready for this kind of responsibility, and even one weak link (especially in defence) could be the difference between us winning and losing a flag. It's a total Hail Mary, but at this stage I'm not sure we have a better option.

Why is it that whenever we get a bunch of outs it's always to players that play the same position? Replacing both Houston and Farrell is exponentially harder than replacing one of them.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

04 had great kicks everywhere this team does not

Half the players in the AFL these days can’t kick so at least we’re not alone!

But this will hurt. A lot unfortunately I think having them both down.

 

[Marmozet]

Dylan Williams?

 

[drcollossimo]

The thought of playing Josh Sinn in finals is terrifying. He's never shown anything to suggest he's remotely ready for this kind of responsibility, and even one weak link (especially in defence) could be the difference between us winning and losing a flag. It's a total Hail Mary, but at this stage I'm not sure we have a better option.

Why is it that whenever we get a bunch of outs it's always to players that play the same position? Replacing both Houston and Farrell is exponentially harder than replacing one of them.

Williams ? Has to be I agree Sinn isn’t ready unless you’re going DBJ

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

Williams is miles off. Beyond the fact his form this year is ordinary, he is also way too slow to play Farrell's role

 

[Izzy01]

I think we have to give Sinn a crack, Williams is just way too slow. If Sinn struggles during the game put DBJ back there. Put Sinn on the weakest forward.

 

[Marmozet]

Williams can be slow but he's a very reliable user of the ball.

 

[TeeKray]

It's not ideal to lose two players from the same position. But having said that, if we were to lose two players from a position, half back is probably the position you'd choose. Having Burton in reserve is a real blessing, as is Logan Evans coming from the clouds to be a good all round player back there. Whoever gets the nod to replace Farrell whether it be DBJ, Williams or Sinn is going to need to step it up.