Prediction Changes v Hawthorn (Round 18)

[MadMundy]

Old mate Flagmantle on Facebook reckons we should be bringing back Emmett into the side for Walters

I'm not big on Walters being in the team but ****ing Emmett? Come on now.

 

[dont bowl there]

Why do you feel that about Wagner though?

He's been pretty decent in this stretch but for me Wagner is a bit one dimensional, and isn't particularly strong defensively.
His one wood is his willingness to attack and get on the bike, which is helpful for our ball movement, but he can get exposed with positioning and on rebound against.

I think that is why Wagner should be in ahead of Aish as long as Walker is back. If Walker misses then Aish can take that position. IMO we need Wagner to be the one driving us forward, Aish doesn't have that in his game but is a better one-on-one defender.

I think meters gained can be a faulty stat to use a lot of the time, but when it comes to the attacking defender role you should be hitting 400+ most games. Aish has been barely hitting 100 before he was made the sub.

 

[FreoGirl]

I'm excited to see what Kuek can do

 

[Mags98]

This may be controversial but if Walker is fit, I'd let him earn his spot via Peel.

I'm liking what I've seen from Wagner and I know some are down on Aish, but despite having to play multiple different roles he's been better this year than most give him credit for.

I know some will say that Walker provides more run from the backline than Aish but I'm not convinced that's true.

It's Apples Vs Oranges V Mandarins but please consider the following comparison of this years' stats...

Disposals
Aish 18.7 v Walker 13.3 v Wagner 14.8

DE%
Aish 79.1 v Walker 76.7 v Wagner 81.1

Clangers
Aish 1.7 v Walker 2.2 v Wagner 1.4

Turnovers
Aish 2.4 v Walker 2.9 v Wagner 3.0

Intercepts
Aish 4.3 v Walker 4.1 v Wagner 1.6

1%ers
Aish 0.9 v Walker 2.1 v Wagner 0.8

Rebound 50s
Aish 2.9 v Walker 2.1 v Wagner 2.4

Score Involvements
Aish 3.8 v Walker 2.3 v Wagner 2.6

Metres Gained
Aish 289 v Walker 177 v Wagner 360

Walker is a great 1 v 1 defender on fast smalls, hence the only stat category he leads in the above comparison is 1%ers. Though I'm not convinced he's better one on one than Wagner or Aish.

If people want walker in for his defensive prowess on super quick smalls then cool. (Maybe Bolton wouldnt have gotten off the hook if Walker had played on him?).

But please don't suggest that Walker provides significant bounce from defence. If we want more attack from D50, Walker is the 3rd best of the 3 options.

James Aish and Brandon Walker AFL Stats Comparison

James Aish and Brandon Walker AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Brandon Walker and Corey Wagner AFL Stats Comparison

Brandon Walker and Corey Wagner AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

can pick out stats but the game is bigger than that. its been clear for years now that Walks is an auto in whenever he is fit, he does the role the coaches give him exceptionally well.

aish was picked as sub the other week for a reason.

 

[CaseySibosadoHOF]

Strongly disagree.

I like Wagner but Aish has far more strings to his bow then Wagner does. Wagner is only best 22 if one of Aish, Walker, Chapman, Clark is unavailable.

Aish is certainly more well rounded than Wagner, but Wagner's rebounding is precisely what Freo need. Walker and Chapman aren't yet ready to be key ball movers in the team (Chapman is closer than Walker though), so when teams would quell Ryan, Clark and/or Sharp it used to have a lot of impact. Wagner in the team stops that.

 

[Mogumber]

Can't see Pearce getting up myself.
Too big a risk

 

[yakamoto]

The presence of Wagner possibly frees up Clark to some extent.
Provided Cox and Pearce don’t have any setbacks there may be an opportunity to push Chapman up the ground. The goal he kicked was something else.

 

[FreoGirl]

Pearce might be the sub and just play the last quarter? am glad he is making the trip, even if he doesn't play

 

[yakamoto]

It looked preseason that Chapman was going to spend time on the wing. We’re still pinch hitting skinny side.

 

[Heave Ho Bro]

can pick out stats but the game is bigger than that. its been clear for years now that Walks is an auto in whenever he is fit, he does the role the coaches give him exceptionally well.

aish was picked as sub the other week for a reason.

Never understood the Walker hate on here. Walk up start for me if fit. Too many focus on the 1 or 2 mistakes he makes in a game and not the other 90% of his game which is great. Has he played 50 games yet?

 

[yakamoto]

Chapman Is without doubt in the top echelon of skilled players on the list. Also a good decision maker.
Important that we play him in a position where he can have maximum impact.
For rest of season, surprise move for finals, next year?
Depending on opposition I think Draper could capably fill Chapman’s roll if required.

 

[Heave Ho Bro]

This is a big game. Can't be dropping this one if we want to be a serious contender. I know it's in Tassie and Hawks are in decent form but they're still in 13th with a bad percentage. Looking for a professional 5 goal win here.

 

[mattis117]

Can't see Pearce getting up myself.
Too big a risk

JL disagree due to the plate. Said it was more about whether the surgery wound had healed sufficiently.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Hey guys just wanna pop in, sorry for the intrusion.

Lewis is obviously out.

Dear and Sicily likely ins, Ginnivan a chance but seemingly more likely next week.

Ins - Dear, Sicily
Outs - Lewis, Mitchell

There are a few players from VFL putting their hand up after a poor team performance but those are probably locked in at this stage.

 

[mattis117]

Pearce might be the sub and just play the last quarter? am glad he is making the trip, even if he doesn't play

Has any team ever in the history of the sub rule ever named a full back captain the sub?

Yeah nah, don't think that's gonna happen.

 

[yakamoto]

JLs mention of the healing of the surgical wound makes sense.
The fracture will take several more weeks to gain strength. The difference in strength between Saturday and the following 1 or 2 weeks is likely minimal
Let’s hope the screws if used hold.

 

[Lach72]

Why do you feel that about Wagner though?

He's been pretty decent in this stretch but for me Wagner is a bit one dimensional, and isn't particularly strong defensively.
His one wood is his willingness to attack and get on the bike, which is helpful for our ball movement, but he can get exposed with positioning and on rebound against.

I like to score more personally.
I think he helps with that, and we defend well enough. I like players who can open the opponent up and give space to the three talls

 

[Lach72]

It looked preseason that Chapman was going to spend time on the wing. We’re still pinch hitting skinny side.

I’m not sure Jaeger is pitch-hitting any more…more rotating with Bailey

 

[DragoDelph]

I’m not sure Jaeger is pitch-hitting any more…more rotating with Bailey

Also seemed that sharp was playing more defensive.

May have just been the match up though.

 

[Freo]

Probs been mentioned already, weather looking fine for Saturday's game

 

[DQ 4EVER]

We need Pearce and Cox gelling together asap

Only one of those two will be "gelling" soon

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[FreoMatt]

Nah stuet ain't a tall imo, I know he is 190cm but it's the way you play too, same for Banfield, don't see him as a tall

Both mediums

Despite being 195cm, Voss doesn’t play like a tall in the old way of thinking. He plays more like a medium/Small. Gets all his goals from leading, getting in the right spot, tackles or ground balls


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Troy Cooked It]

As it stands changes obviously depend on test results for Walker, Pearce and Draper.

1. If Pearce passes he is in for Draper and we finally get our 'full' strength backline (still fairly underdone).
2. If Pearce fails and Draper passes there is no change
3. If both Pearce and Drapes fails it's Davies for Draper
4. If Walker is fit i think we see Aish dropped, over the last 8 or so rounds we have become one of the best scores from rebound teams and I think we prioritise that. Especially with Ginnivan or Watson as a match up as well. Wagner is well suited for whoever Walker isnt on.
5. Walters stays as the sub

In terms of match ups Dylan Moore

13

Dylan Moore

Age

25

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

will be our toughest, he's such a good player and has freedom to push up to stoppage a bit like Switta does, but he is twice as damaging on his way back to goal. Needs close attention but I have the feeling we will try and have Clark be his match up to create some accountability for Moore. Basically you might see Moore getting heaps of it but in exchange Clark will be moving the footy with freedom. That or it will be Chappy allowing him up to stoppage and playing a loose intercept role.

Fantasy wise I would say it's a good week to have Moore either way!

 

[pK75]

As it stands changes obviously depend on test results for Walker, Pearce and Draper.

1. If Pearce passes he is in for Draper and we finally get our 'full' strength backline (still fairly underdone).
2. If Pearce fails and Draper passes there is no change
3. If both Pearce and Drapes fails it's Davies for Draper
4. If Walker is fit i think we see Aish dropped, over the last 8 or so rounds we have become one of the best scores from rebound teams and I think we prioritise that. Especially with Ginnivan or Watson as a match up as well. Wagner is well suited for whoever Walker isnt on.
5. Walters stays as the sub

In terms of match ups Dylan Moore will be our toughest, he's such a good player and has freedom to push up to stoppage a bit like Switta does, but he is twice as damaging on his way back to goal. Needs close attention but I have the feeling we will try and have Clark be his match up to create some accountability for Moore. Basically you might see Moore getting heaps of it but in exchange Clark will be moving the footy with freedom. That or it will be Chappy allowing him up to stoppage and playing a loose intercept role.

Fantasy wise I would say it's a good week to have Moore either way!

Interesting, I’d be putting Walker on Moore to shut down his influence, let Clark and Wagner run off Gini and Wiz respectively. Moore is by far their most dangerous small.

 

[Bigger]

It looked preseason that Chapman was going to spend time on the wing. We’re still pinch hitting skinny side.

Chapman is going to the guts at some point. Wing would be the place to start.

Massive upside to this bloke. Instinctively attacking. Great evasive skills. Super hard at the contest. Good thinker. Great below knees. Excellent reader of the ball in flight.

And can dob them off a step from right on the fifty. Straight through the middle.

Faaaaaaark.