List Mgmt. Contract, Trade and Draft Discussions - 2024 Post Season

Whose future picks would you have preferred?


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Trade period
In: 12, F1, F2, F3, 73, Baker, Owies, Graham*
Out: 3, 63, F4, Barrass, Darling

*Free agent

Done deals






  • Zane Trew, Jamaine Jones and Jordyn Baker delisted

 
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It’s technically gonna be pick 4 so I’d like the same write up for pick 4 please😉

Using a 20 year sample from '01- 2020, you'd find (our) JK, Bont, Clayton Oliver, LDU and Max King

From memory the probability of getting an outright gun is bit higher for pick 1, then pretty similar for picks 2-6, then falls off pretty quickly from there onwards.

I think people sometimes assume all high draft picks come off, and that's not true, but that's precisely why they are so valuable. That 20% chance at an all time great represents an absolutely shit year at the bottom of the ladder. So given how many top 5 picks you actually need to get those odds in your favour, and how much a team and supporter base have to suffer to get them, you absolutely do not want to be flushing those chances down the toilet.

Using Judd as an example, he didn't single handedly carry us to a premiership, but in an alternate universe where we'd traded that pick in 2001 for a guy of Baker's caliber, I think you can comfortable assume it costs us two grand finals appearances- arguably four if you factor in the huge value we got when we finally did have to trade Judd out.
 
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If we give 4 and 20 for Warner we ****ed up.
20 and our 2026 1st pick, plus steak knives.

Have to use our own f1, either by moving it to this year or by using it next year
We steak knived ourselves in the foot this year by coughing up #3. Had we taken FOS/Draper and gone into next year with Harley and FOS/Draper, coughing up our first would have been palatable. Now we could go 2 years without grabbing a top 5 selection. That's a concern.
 

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That's who got us into this mess to begin with.

Had they done at the end of 2021 what the tigers are doing now we would have got draft capital for players. Think about what Cripps, darling, Kennedy, barrass, gaff, Sheed, Duggan, were worth then. I'm not saying we should've got rid of all of them but sure as hell we should've traded a few of them.



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You can’t sit there trading players like they are commodities then expect loyalty from interstate kids.

It’s one thing for jd and tb to ask to go and you facilitate it and another to put guys on the auction block.

Given our interstate retention I think we are balancing it well.
 
Well they didn't because they still have a Future 1st.

We hold their entire original 2025 draft hand rounds 1 to 3. What they started with before any trades.

Lore has published the predicted 2025 Draft Picks based on 2024 ladder plus trades.

Keys can we please have that added to the header? May help slow the thaw.

2025 Eagles sitting 1st on points.

Same ladder as 2024 Eagles would hokd 3, 12, 21, 30, 39 and 48.

2 1sts
2 2nds
2 3rds

All being linked to Hawthorn's original draft hand.
 
I can’t say too much, have to keep things pretty close to my chest because it’s very easy to trace this stuff, but here’s a blow by blow of every moment of the trade period, and an inside look at the relationships that will run WA football for the next half decade.

PS my boss is a campaigner.
Not gonna lie, revealing that's its a father and son sharing an account had big my roommate stole my laptop and posted shit on my account vibes
 
Using a 20 year sample from '01- 2020, you'd find (our) JK, Bont, Clayton Oliver, LDU and Max King

From memory the probability of getting an outright gun is clearly higher for pick 1, then pretty similar for picks 2-6, then falls off pretty quickly from there onwards.
We've got some donkies running the show at wce. This nightmare will continue until they're gone.
 

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That's who got us into this mess to begin with.

Had they done at the end of 2021 what the tigers are doing now we would have got draft capital for players. Think about what Cripps, darling, Kennedy, barrass, gaff, Sheed, Duggan, were worth then. I'm not saying we should've got rid of all of them but sure as hell we should've traded a few of them.



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Duggan has been a battler since his first PCL. He would only ever been worth a mid to late second which have been essentially worthless since Covid.
 
So do we think Phil's off sinking piss on Clarke's tab right after potting him on here?
There is no chance that someone has inner sanctum access and is posting here. I can't believe how many people on here are, "what do you think, Phil?". Every year he comes out and say Harley or some other gun isn't very good and we should split so we can get Curtain or Busslinger.
 
Barrasd


Except you know, it potentially could have.

If you just take the ten pick 3s from 2001--2010 as a reasonable sample size of guys who have finished their careers.

- two,ie 20%, were generational, era defining players who absolutely changed the fortunes of their clubs (Judd, Dusty)

- the other eight (Griffen, S Hill, Sylvia, Brennan, Masten, Hansen, Ellis, Day) all had solid AFL careers playing somewhere between 250 and 100 games and ranging from AA (Griffen) or fairly high in their club champion (Hill) to jobbers or injury hit guys who never really put it together. None of them were outright busts.

But the chance at that first 20%, the era defining all time champions are why top 5 picks are so valuable and why no recruiter in their right mind trades them unless it's for something truly top tier. They are by far and away the best chance of getting your hands on those sort of era defining players. Trade a top 5 pick and you are passing up about a 1 in 5 chance of a guy who would virtually single handedly change a clubs fortunes.

Yeah there's a chance, in fact a better than even chance that Carlton will just net a decent 200 gamer with this pick rather than someone so good he will make west coast fans want to self harm every time they hear his name but to even risk losing one of those all time players for a decent, non AA calibre player like Baker because 'we committed to trading for him' is..just wow. Wow. Forget hindsight, even if Baker turns out to have a really good 4-5 years at west coast and Carlton draft a dud, it is an idiotic risk to have taken.

Having had time to calm down and reflect on it, this is hands down the worst recruitment decision west coast have made in the past 20 years and one of the worst any AFL club has made during that time. All that's left is to sit back and wait to see if it blows up in our faces as badly as it could, knowing that the people who made it are, inexplicably, still in positions of authority at the club.

It’s inexplicable that the club hasn’t sacked its CEO and various managers in the past 24 hours?
 
There is no chance that someone has inner sanctum access and is posting here. I can't believe how many people on here are, "what do you think, Phil?". Every year he comes out and say Harley or some other gun isn't very good and we should split so we can get Curtain or Busslinger.
Been here for years and have never seen proof that he works in recruiting, hilarious that everyone goes along with it.

We won't know the end result of the trade week for years, have to just hope that we get a best 22 player at 12, preferably a mid. As a club we're way too nice though, pick 14 for an ooc Baker is definitely overs, I don't care that we made assurances to him, have to look after the club first.
 
Trigger warning: This is going to be an optimistic reaction to our trade period.

Deal 1: Jack Darling out for pick 69. Great for Jack, gets his career prolonged by 2 more years and we aren't forced to play him in the side - he won't be keeping a young bloke out. Happy with that.

Deal 2: 3, 69 & 69 for 12, 14, Owies & 69. We're all meh with this one at the very least. No one wants 12 instead of 3. However I understand why they did it after the Hawks being dog campaigners. They wanted the capital for Baker, who they believe is going to make a huge improvement to our side - and let's be honest, he will. The swapping of 69 for 69 & 69 almost annoys me more than the 3, coz that feels like the most spineless of all of it. Like 3 for 12, 14 & Owies wasn't enough. As for Owies. Look I don't like the guy, don't rate him either, but he's with us now so I hope he can contribute in a meaningful way. So yeah, meh.

Deal 3: 14 for Baker. Would've preferred around late teensish but we didn't have that pick and couldn't manufacture a deal to get that, so we paid what we had for reasons mentioned above. Happy that he's at the club, not so happy he's at the price. Really looking forward to watching him in our colours.

Deal 4: Barrass & F4 for Hawks F1, F2 & F3. I'm actually pretty happy about this one. Tom wanted out, he's 29 and probably our only player that holds any currency so good luck to him. Means we have a great draft hand next year which we can use to trade back into this year's or hold for a big trade next year. Not terrible to say the least.

Free agent: Jack Graham. Walks into our side and offers a bit more mongrel and a big body. No world beater but came for zero draft capital so welcome Jack, looking forward to seeing what you bring to the side.



Overall it's a pretty middling trade period to say the least. Started out pretty disgusting with 3 going out, but balanced out with Hawks 2025 draft hand. I think I can see the plan, we can't grab a couple more wins this year - somewhere between 7-10 with the addition of some better players, the natural progression of our youth, a more modern gameplan that works to our strengths and a new attitude that comes with big changes at the club - most notably a new coach. Then in 2025 we have a serious draft hand to either attract some established talent or hit the draft hard.

I was pretty down for most of yesterday, but having a vent with you guys and a bit of a laugh reminds you it's just footy, and really it's better to be optimistic about where we are going than kicking stones over a footy team you don't even play for.

Probably a bit too much rainbows and puppies but fingers crossed for the year ahead!
 

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List Mgmt. Contract, Trade and Draft Discussions - 2024 Post Season

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