List Mgmt. Contracts, trades, draft - 2022 superstar edition

[Keys]

Link to contract status of all players -

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[ArdentEagle]

It has absolutely everything to do with getting access to the best players, as you say you need those high draft picks to get the cream.
The longer youre down the bottom the more access you have.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

 

[Chump Change]

It has absolutely everything to do with getting access to the best players, as you say you need those high draft picks to get the cream.
The longer youre down the bottom the more access you have.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

Yeah, nah.

They were down the bottom. They had 2 top 5 picks, chose midfielders, and chose wisely.
Melbourne were down the bottom. They had 2 top 5 picks (and some). They chose midfielders. They chose wisely.
We are down the bottom, we will probably also get 2 top 5 picks......

What happened in the decade before is irrelevant to anything I have said. I have shown how they built their list and pointed out the critical parts which we should do everything to try and emulate.

 

[Chump Change]

Where did those A+ players come from?

Martin pick 3, Petracca pick 2 (then Brayshaw 3), Oliver pick 4, Cotchin pick 2, Riewoldt pick 13... Etc.

We drafted Judd 3 2001, Naitanui 2 2008, Gaff 4 2010. 3 top 5 picks in 20 years. By my count Melbourne have had 12 (3 2003, 4 2007, 1 2008, 1 & 2 2009, 3 & 4 2012, 2 2013, 2 & 3 2014, 4 2015, 3 2019).

Do you do everything in your power to try to find them, or not? To date WC have not. Because we've prioritised not being terrible at football.

I'm pretty confident if WC have access to the same picks that Melbourne or Richmond had that we'll draft some quality players.

That's great. It has nothing to do with anything I have said.

 

[Avalor]

God, that's a poor result, getting beaten by the Allies in the U19s. Has it ever happened before? Did we go in with a 2nd best team, or what?

 

[Monocle]

God, that's a poor result, getting beaten by the Allies in the U19s. Has it ever happened before? Did we go in with a 2nd best team, or what?

No excuses we are just a really shit side.
One of the worst list for us at the Champs for ages, doubt we win a game.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

So we've gone from hit the draft hard to trade all the picks?

Cool.

 

[Scotland]

So we've gone from hit the draft hard to trade all the picks?

Cool.

Two top 5 picks is all it takes.

 

[amazingjoshy]

Did i miss the part where we can only pick WA players?

 

[JackOutback]

I’d be down with trading pick 2 and a second rounder (and a player, if necessary… Gaff?) for Jackson if we could trade next year’s first to get back into the first round. There’d be plenty of teams that would back us being in the bottom four next year, but not sure if there’s any team in the 5-10 bracket that would be willing to give up that pick this year. But if we could get Jackson and potentially Hewett in this year, along with Culley, that’s a good start on a rebuild.

 

[shooshka]

Yeah, nah.

They were down the bottom. They had 2 top 5 picks, chose midfielders, and chose wisely.
Melbourne were down the bottom. They had 2 top 5 picks (and some). They chose midfielders. They chose wisely.
We are down the bottom, we will probably also get 2 top 5 picks......

What happened in the decade before is irrelevant to anything I have said. I have shown how they built their list and pointed out the critical parts which we should do everything to try and emulate.

Richmond had a top 10 pick in 4 consecutive drafts. Cotchin, Vickery (8), Martin, Conca (6).

Ok, theoretically they chose wisely with their top 5 picks, but they were hardly trying to choose poorly with the others. They were part lucky (no small part that Carltank refused to trade the #1 pick), and partially aided by statistics (take a lot of top 10 picks, odds are you get some very good players).

Melbourne. Watts, Scully, Trengrove, Hogan, Toumpas. That is a lot of getting it wrong before they finally got it right.

If we are to learn anything from the drafting and subsequent premierships of Richmond and Melbourne it is draft tougher, generally inside, mids rather than flashy outside players (Tambling, Scully etc) early. Also pillage unsuccessful clubs like GC and Freo.

On SM-G986B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Get_The_Gaff]

God, that's a poor result, getting beaten by the Allies in the U19s. Has it ever happened before? Did we go in with a 2nd best team, or what?

The allies aren't as bad as they used to be .
A lot of players have had 5 years of academy training with the Northern clubs and then you add the best of NT and Tassie .

We were also poorly coached .

Our mids loved to run forward but offered little defensive running .

No one was set up defensively at stoppages and the amount of times they ran it out of the front of contests was infuriating.

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

TBH I'm completely open to using pick 2 in a trade for a player. Even if its pick 2 and our 2 seconds for a great young player and a late first back as we have to use one.

The more I watch week to week the more disappointed I am with this years draft crop.

Pick 2 for Freos first rounder, Erasmus and Meek?

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

He's hard at the ball and man but not amazing skills, reading of play or marking. Also very physically developed in comparison to some of his contemporaries. Or he's just naturally very strong. Definite AFL level prospect but anyone thinking for anything more than a B grade or defensive mid/defender out of him I think is kidding themselves.

Disagree there Phil i have seen more of him than you he is a very good kick on his left its a weapon for him
Has the ability to hit those tricky short kicks, then kicks long with penetration generally to his team mate advantage
One area needs to work on is his overhead marking though
Would also like him to hit the contest at pace more often as know one will catch him

 

[Chump Change]

Richmond had a top 10 pick in 4 consecutive drafts. Cotchin, Vickery (8), Martin, Conca (6).

Ok, theoretically they chose wisely with their top 5 picks, but they were hardly trying to choose poorly with the others. They were part lucky (no small part that Carltank refused to trade the #1 pick), and partially aided by statistics (take a lot of top 10 picks, odds are you get some very good players).

Melbourne. Watts, Scully, Trengrove, Hogan, Toumpas. That is a lot of getting it wrong before they finally got it right.

If we are to learn anything from the drafting and subsequent premierships of Richmond and Melbourne it is draft tougher, generally inside, mids rather than flashy outside players (Tambling, Scully etc) early. Also pillage unsuccessful clubs like GC and Freo.

On SM-G986B using BigFooty.com mobile app

The drafts beforehand don't matter - we're not trying to do that. We've got a limited amount of top 5ish picks and we're trying to get 2 of them right. Richmond and Melbourne did a lot of wrong choosing, we're trying to better that. There's no doubt we will get some wrong though.

I think all the clubs now know that outsider players do not control football games. Fiora, Polec, Scully etc. I don't think any clubs still spend top 5 picks on these types of players.

A club's ladder position will generally correlate to what type of players they need, and where they should generally draft these players.


Top 2 pick - If you're bottom 2, you're shit and you need to pretty much build a whole list - You should only be trading for a bull or a balanced mid with exception foot, hand, and decision making skills - Dusty, Bont, Walsh, Brayshaw etc. You only go a KPF if they are the absolute standout of the draft. Outsiders can't play unless they're in a team with elite inside and balanced mids.

Top 3 - 7 pick - If you're in this zone, you're either bottom 7 or have the pick through losing a player you need to replace. You should only be looking at inside and balanced mids and KPFs. You should only consider a KPD if the mids and KPFs are sorted. A small forward may come into play here - but they have to be Rankine or Rachelle good.

Pick 8 - 13 - When your draft pick is here, you're going to have half your team built and can start looking a little bit towards needs. This is where you might get that flashy outsider who makes your midfield pop.

 

[Chump Change]

TBH I'm completely open to using pick 2 in a trade for a player. Even if its pick 2 and our 2 seconds for a great young player and a late first back as we have to use one.

The more I watch week to week the more disappointed I am with this years draft crop.

I'm with you that this year's draft looks a bit shit. But that top end talent is there, like it is with every draft. It just means it's going to be harder to guess the right player. There's a bigger chance of failure this year.

 

[Obeanie1]

Yeah, nah.

They were down the bottom. They had 2 top 5 picks, chose midfielders, and chose wisely.
Melbourne were down the bottom. They had 2 top 5 picks (and some). They chose midfielders. They chose wisely.
We are down the bottom, we will probably also get 2 top 5 picks......

What happened in the decade before is irrelevant to anything I have said. I have shown how they built their list and pointed out the critical parts which we should do everything to try and emulate.

We likely wont have access to Ashcroft and Sheezle another top 3 prospect we would be taking a massive risk in picking at 3.

Should North take Wardlaw then we are likely looking at the 4th ranked player to use pick 2 on.

So in reality Chump we may have pick 2 but will likely miss out on the cream of this draft in any case. You have gone to great lengths explaining how on average top 3 is where it happens in an average draft. Well in this not normal situation our pick 2 will likely only provide access to the 4th best rated player.

And at pick 4 there looks to be three similarly rated mids. Not much seperating them at all.

Instead of bleating on about history and long term averages look at what is actually unfolding and the current information. If you were in NSW and the flood waters are rising do you make a decision to leave based on long term rainfall averages or do you listen the the weather report informing you of what is actually happenning?

 

[Obeanie1]

You have parts of things that matter, and parts of things that are neither here nor there. Priority picks have nothing to do with anything. The mere fact you think they are important concerns me. From memory Rance might have been a priority pick. He only had a small influence.

You mention my view is simplistic. Sure, it's simplistic because the mechanics of building a list to win a flag is simplistic. The hard bit is making the right decisions, then the game plan on top and then the coaching ability etc. But the underlying mechanics of a list build - it's simple to understand but hard to do.

Contrary, you're view is jumbled and you place importance on things that aren't really important, and underrate the things that really do matter.


Let's have a look how Richmond built a list that won 3 flags;


2017, 2019, 2020 Premiership Teams
3 flags
Cotchin
Martin
Riewoldt
Prestia
Edwards
Grimes
Vlastuin
Broad
Rioli
Lambert
Castagna
Houli
Astbury
Nankervis

2 flags
Lynch
Ellis
Mcintosh
Caddy
Bolton
Graham
Short
Baker
Pickett

1 flag
Rance
Butler
Townsend
Grigg
Soldo
Balta

Draft Pick Distribution

Top 5 picks
2007 Cotchin #02
2009 Martin #03

Picks #6 - #13
2012 Vlastuin #09
2006 Riewoldt #13

First round trades
2017 Prestia #06
2019 Lynch #03 (#03 is not what Richmond paid, rather the compensation GC received)

Picks #14 - #26
2011 Ellis #15
2015 Rioli #15
2007 Rance #18
2017 Balta #25
2006 Edwards #26

Picks #27 - #67
2016 Bolton #29
2012 Mcintosh #32
2009 Astbury #35
2016 Graham #53
2014 Butler #67
2015 Broad #67

Trades for 2nd - 5th rounders
2017 Caddy 2nd rounder
2017 Nankervis 3rd rounder
2011 Houli 3rd rounder
2016 Townsend 4th rounder
2011 Grigg Swap for a guy no one's ever heard of

Rookie Draft, Pre-season Draft, Pre-season Rookie Draft
2010 Grimes PSD
2015 Short RD
2015 Castagna RD
2015 Lambert RD
2015 Soldo RD
2018 Baker RD
2019 Pickett MSRD

Where did they get their midfield from?
2007 Cotchin #02
2009 Martin #03
2017 Prestia #06
2006 Edwards #26
2016 Bolton #29

Where did they get their KPFs from?
2019 Lynch Trade
2006 Riewoldt #13

Where did they get their defensive unit from?
2012 Vlastuin #09
2007 Rance #18
2009 Astbury #35
2015 Broad #67
2011 Houli 3rd rounder
2010 Grimes PSD

Where did they get their ruck division from?
2017 Nankervis 3rd rounder
2015 Soldo RD
2011 Grigg Swap for a guy no one's ever heard of

Drafting timeline

2006
#13 Riewoldt
#26 Edwards

2007
#02 Cotchin
#18 Rance

2009
#03 Martin
#35 Astbury

2010
PSD Grimes

2011
#15 Ellis
Trade Houli - effectively a 3rd rounder
Trade Grigg - swap for a guy no one's ever heard of

2012
#09 Vlastuin
#32 Mcintosh

2014
#67 Butler

2015
#15 Rioli
#67 Broad
RD Short
RD Castagna
RD Lambert
RD Soldo

2016
#29 Bolton
#53 Graham
Trade Townsend - 4th round pick

2017
#25 Balta
Trade Prestia 1st rounder
Trade Caddy 2nd rounder
Trade Nankervis 3rd rounder

2018
RD Baker

2019
Trade Lynch 1st rounder
MSRD Pickett


What are the take-aways from this?

1 One quarter of their players are players who were not seen to be good enough to be drafted. This fits with the “80% of AFL players are soldiers” theory where their performance is largely determined by the team they are part of. They play like a million bucks in a top 4 side, ok in a middling side, and like dogshit in a bad side.
2 Midfielders and KPFs win flags. Most of their top players in the these positions are high draft picks - Dusty, Cotch, Prestia are top 5, Reiwoldt is 13, and Lynch was a free agent worth #3.
3 Your backline doesn’t have to be top draft picks. Grimes is the big dog and was a PSD. Vlastuin went #09, Rance #18, and the rest are late picks and rookie drafts.
4 You don’t need to spend top picks on ruck divisions. Nankers was an average player at the Swans. Richmond picked him up as he was entering his prime. It cost a 3rd rounder.
5 The key to this team is Dusty and Cotch. Without them (or players equivalent to them), those flags don’t happen. The team is built around them and to a lesser degree Reiwoldt. They got those two players in place early and that allowed Hardwick to bring in all sorts of soldiers to play roles. Interestingly, this profile has some similarities to most flag sides, including Melbourne. They had Viney and Brayshaw. Viney is as hard as nails and Brayshaw was runner up in the Brownlow. But it wasn’t enough. It wasn’t until Petracca and Oliver hit their straps that it all happened for them.


How did Melbourne do it?

The similarity is they too drafted 2 players from top 5 picks who are superstars. They initially had Viney and Brayshaw as their top dogs. They weren't good enough. It wasn't until Oliver and Tracc hit superstardom that they were good enough. Richmond got Dusty and Cotch early and built a team around them, Melbourne built the team and it wasn't until Oliver and Tracc hit their straps that they won.

No Dusty/Cotch = no flags
No Oliver/Tracc = no flags

If you don't have a couple of players of this ilk, it's very hard to win a flag. Even if you do have them, it's far from a guarantee. But the rest of the players are a handful of A-graders and then rank and file soldiers.

#1 priority is to find those players so you shouldn't compromise it under any circumstances.

I must appologise. I did not know you were Dr Strange with access to the multiverse.

How you know with such certainty that if those teams had have selected other players they would not have won premierships trumps everything I have.

One sentence you say only the data from the past ten drafts matter. Everything before that doesnt matter says plenty. Your sample space of data you are making guesses with is now even smaller.

Were any of those draft over the past 10 years affected by covid? No. But this draft cohort has been massively impacted. And yet you apply a 10 year average this group?

You accept your argument is simplistic and then say drafting is simple. It isnt. If it was clubs would do it better.

If you took this arguement to a mathmatician they would chuckle, bin it and move on.

 

[Chump Change]

We likely wont have access to Ashcroft and Sheezle another top 3 prospect we would be taking a massive risk in picking at 3.

Should North take Wardlaw then we are likely looking at the 4th ranked player to use pick 2 on.

Unfortunately that looks like it's the case. There or thereabouts. Uniacke came of age yesterday (I knew he was a gun) which may turn North away from taking a mid.

So in reality Chump we may have pick 2 but will likely miss out on the cream of this draft in any case. You have gone to great lengths explaining how on average top 3 is where it happens in an average draft. Well in this not normal situation our pick 2 will likely only provide access to the 4th best rated player.

This is where it gets murky. I agree with the gut feel that this draft is likely on the weak side. I'm confident with Ashy, Warlord, Sheezel. While I don't have a crystal ball, I'd be confident they will turn into very good players.

But now you're saying you have a crystal ball and everyone outside these players is shit. I tend to think they are just more of a risk (i.e. a higher chance of not being a gun).

I haven't seen Phillipou play yet. Apparently he's highly rated.

We just have to let our recruitment team do their diligence, rank the players, choose best available, and if it does turn out we can still get the player we want by sliding back, then do it (not the other way around).

And at pick 4 there looks to be three similarly rated mids. Not much seperating them at all.

Instead of bleating on about history and long term averages look at what is actually unfolding and the current information. If you were in NSW and the flood waters are rising do you make a decision to leave based on long term rainfall averages or do you listen the the weather report informing you of what is actually happenning?

Based on your opinion that is based on the opinions of a bunch of people on a footy forum?

Our recruitment staff will have a ranking. They won't leave that final meeting until they agree on a ranking.

Finally; This is a rare draft where there doesn't seem to be a KPF in the top 4 let along top 15. Busslinger looks really good. This guy has 200 game KPD written all over him. So if there's ever a year where we split unknown, or take a KPD with a top 2 pick, this is it. But it's still not going to happen. Flags are won by midfield bulls, balanced mids with elite hand, foot, and decision making, and KPFs. Apart from a small chance of a last minute slide, I'm confident we will take the best mid available.

 

[Chump Change]

I must appologise. I did not know you were Dr Strange with access to the multiverse.

How you know with such certainty that if those teams had have selected other players they would not have won premierships trumps everything I have.

One sentence you say only the data from the past ten drafts matter. Everything before that doesntmatter says plenty. Your sample space of sata you are making guesses with is now even smaller.

You accept your argument is simplistic and then say drafting is simple. Lol.

If you took this arguement to a mathmatician they would chuckle, bin it and move on.

If Viney and Brayshaw are Melbourne's best mids, they're not winning that flag. Take Dusty and Cotch out of Richmond and replace with Viney/Brayshaw or any other combo that are A grade but not A+, and they're not winning those flags.

I'm not saying the "last 10 years matter" and the "10 years before don't". I'm saying, "this is how Richmond drafted their flag team". When they finally chose the right players with those top 5 picks, they were able to build a team to win 3 flags. Get those top 5 picks wrong = no flag. Get those top 5 picks right - you're in the hunt.

I don't know if you're just purposely looking at it from obscure angles that have no relevance, but it seems that way to me.

 

[new breed]

Wonder if we take a KPF like Corey Tregenza-Cashell at a lower pick or try and trade for a Georgiades ....
Eagles probably won't with other needs but you never know might be a need also .

 

[Chump Change]

Wonder if we take a KPF like Corey Tregenza-Cashell at a lower pick or try and trade for a Georgiades ....
Eagles probably won't with other needs but you never know might be a need also .

Tregenza looked ok to me. I can't see us going after Georgeades. I rate him but we already have Ryan who plays a similarish role.

 

[new breed]

Tregenza looked ok to me. I can't see us going after Georgeades. I rate him but we already have Ryan who plays a similarish role.

Geogiades + Darling combo would be A okay ....Port can have their ( WCE ) second rounder for Georgiades !?

 

[Chump Change]

Geogiades + Darling combo would be A okay ....Port can have their ( WCE ) second rounder for Georgiades !?

I'd rather we enquire about Dev Robbo or the Breezley Bruhn.

 

[Obeanie1]

This is where it gets murky. I agree with the gut feel that this draft is likely on the weak side. I'm confident with Ashy, Warlord, Sheezel. While I don't have a crystal ball, I'd be confident they will

But now you're saying you have a crystal ball and everyone outside these players is s**t. I tend to think they are just more of a risk (i.e. a higher chance of not being a gun).

I haven't seen Phillipou play yet. Apparently he's highly rated.

Wooo. Stop there.

I have never said players outside that group are s**t.

Now you did say you went and read a fair amount of Gunner and his style. Gunner's 1 wood when he started to lose a debate was straight out missquoting people. Just like you just have.

So I will make my view clear. I wont post War and Peace, not my style.

It is looking as the top 3 players this draft we either wont have access to or will not risk selecting.

Ashcroft, next best ranked mid and Sheezle.

Sheezle with massive go home red flags.

The next 3 to 5 players are all still very good. Picks 4 to 8. One may even end up being the best of the crop, that does happen.

We keep our powder dry and see if any significant offers come in to downgrade 2 spots. If the offer is too good to refuse, take it. Even to the point of live trading on draft night.

Now come draft night IF a player has elevated themselves and shown they are a class or two above a player we can get two picks later, then pick them. Go for it. Not based on 10 year averages that dont apply but based on PERFORMANCE. Use pick 2 > 3 on this standout midfielder who has elevated themselves above all others.

If however we have 3 or 4 mids all ranked at similar levels available 2 picks later, trade down and cash in.

Same as last year and Chesser.

 

[Chump Change]

Wooo. Stop there.


I have never said players outside that group are s**t.

Now you did say you went and read a fair amount of Gunner and his style. Gunner's 1 wood when he started to lose a debate was straight out missquoting people. Just like you just have.

Are you aware you actually do this to me all the time? Like nearly every post, you misquote me and try to change my argument to what you want it to be.