Competitions Draft Prediction - 23 & 28

[Lyyynnnchy]

Hoping Haiden Schloithe somehow falls into the rookie draft

Small forward with a 20m sprint under 2.80 seconds, who has had over 15 tackles in a colts game and loves to kick a goal.

Height: 179cm
Weight: 72kg

Him and Newman in a pocket and on a flank would be great

 

[CursoryMercenary]

It's concerning we only have two picks in the draft.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Agreed.

On the contrary to what many people think, I think there are some players with huge amounts of potential that would be available at pick 50+. B Hill, Schloithe, Turnbridge and Manson being 4 of them

 

[pantskyle]

It's concerning we only have two picks in the draft.

Yes and no. We have a very stable squad at the moment and we got three great gifts last draft, If we can get some players now that can replace our veterans as necessary then we should be able to avoid another rebuild.

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

Nah, it always seems as though a draft pool is good when you read about the prospects because you only hear about their good aspects and you automatically assume they'll translate to AFL level.

We're smart to have 2 picks, especially when you consider that we have a great amount of young talent already on the list which hasn't been tried.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Yes and no. We have a very stable squad at the moment and we got three great gifts last draft, If we can get some players now that can replace our veterans as necessary then we should be able to avoid another rebuild.

I can think of a number of players on our list who are likely to have absolutley no impact next year. I would rather take the risk and use a draft pick to pick up some new blood.

You can use the term "depth player" but a new draft pick could also be classified as that unless they're a bean pole like Notte

 

[pantskyle]

I can think of a number of players on our list who are likely to have absolutley no impact next year. I would rather take the risk and use a draft pick to pick up some new blood.

You can use the term "depth player" but a new draft pick could also be classified as that unless they're a bean pole like Notte

Who out of contract would you like to delist for extra picks? I try to never use the term depth player. I dont think Dalziell will play another game for us. I don't think that Neates or Weedon will play 50 games. I think the dead wood exists. We will take two kids tomorrow, and 2-4 rookie kids depending on Medhurst and Davis. So potentially 4-6 new kids is a good plan.

 

[shooshka]

It's been said for quite a while leading in that this isn't a strong draft... obviously that remains to be seen - but we aren't the only club taking the minimum picks...

we keep hearing that 2012 has a lot of depth, and with our 3rd rnd compo (immediately after collingwoods pick) we could have 4 picks inside 60-ish (depends on priority and compo selections, as well as where collingwood finish). obviously that depends on list space - but why use a pick in the 60's in a 'weak' draft when you can use 2 in the 50's in a 'strong' draft, i'm sure they have made plans to have available list space next yr (i.e. 1 yr contracts).

 

[INSANE]

Nah, it always seems as though a draft pool is good when you read about the prospects because you only hear about their good aspects and you automatically assume they'll translate to AFL level.

We're smart to have 2 picks, especially when you consider that we have a great amount of young talent already on the list which hasn't been tried.

Yep. We will use more picks in the next draft, which has been getting 2008 (draft) like positivity about it.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Stephen Wells, head recruiter at Geelong, happily traded pick 26 for 32 and 34 (i think they were the picks).

He is widely seen as the best recruiter going around.

 

[WCE_phil]

Stephen Wells, head recruiter at Geelong, happily traded pick 26 for 32 and 34 (i think they were the picks).

He is widely seen as the best recruiter going around.

So say at pick 26 he has a 50/50 chance of a 100game + player and at picks 32 and 34 he has a 33% chance of a 100+ game player. Which option makes more sense?

 

[footballfreak]

Either 2 of Lockyer, Newman, Nelson.

Local lads in a weak draft

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

So say at pick 26 he has a 50/50 chance of a 100game + player and at picks 32 and 34 he has a 33% chance of a 100+ game player. Which option makes more sense?

If Dalziell has a 0% chance at becoming a handy AFL player and a player at pick 60 has a 15% chance. Which option makes more sense?

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

If Dalziell has a 0% chance at becoming a handy AFL player and a player at pick 60 has a 15% chance. Which option makes more sense?

There are so many more factors to take into account though.

For example, we can give Dalziell a 1 year contract while we have to give a new draftee 2 years. That means if we want more picks in 2012, we're better off keep Dalziell for now.

Also, Dal will provide more in 2012 than a late pick would.

There would be heaps of other things to consider also.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

There are so many more factors to take into account though.

For example, we can give Dalziell a 1 year contract while we have to give a new draftee 2 years. That means if we want more picks in 2012, we're better off keep Dalziell for now.

Also, Dal will provide more in 2012 than a late pick would.

There would be heaps of other things to consider also.

Arguably. I'm sorry I just dont rate him. A plethora of mature age players would provide more in 2012 than Dal would as would a lot of draft picks.

Would you prefer B Hill at 50 or to keep Dal on the list?

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

Arguably. I'm sorry I just dont rate him. A plethora of mature age players would provide more in 2012 than Dal would as would a lot of draft picks.

Would you prefer B Hill at 50 or to keep Dal on the list?

I'm not sure Hill will get to 50 and if he does, you'd think he wont have much of a career.

I'd rather retain flexibility.

 

[INSANE]

Stephen Wells, head recruiter at Geelong, happily traded pick 26 for 32 and 34 (i think they were the picks).

He is widely seen as the best recruiter going around.

He IS the best. But I've heard him AND almost every other recruiter say next year is another special draft, this one he described as 'better than most are saying' (bit of a difference)....Hindsight will tell us if it's the right call re:2012 draft.....But it's obvious WC will have more next year, and Geelongs situation and ours are different anyway.

I don't think if we under perform, we'll say 'I wish we had an extra pick in the 50s'. We have a balanced list without major holes right now, so two good-ish picks should suffice for now.

Most teams will have more picks next year than this one, unless multiple retirements meant more places to fill now.

 

[BlueMania]

pick 63 - Damien Volta.

 

[kayliesharks]

pick 63 - Damien Volta.

Pick 63 - Ashton Hams

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

He IS the best. But I've heard him AND almost every other recruiter say next year is another special draft, this one he described as 'better than most are saying' (bit of a difference)....Hindsight will tell us if it's the right call re:2012 draft.....But it's obvious WC will have more next year, and Geelongs situation and ours are different anyway.

I don't think if we under perform, we'll say 'I wish we had an extra pick in the 50s'. We have a balanced list without major holes right now, so two good-ish picks should suffice for now.

Most teams will have more picks next year than this one, unless multiple retirements meant more places to fill now.

Agree with this. From all reports next year's draft will be a beauty, and we will have a host of players ready to be delisted plus a few who might retire.

Superb list management by the Eagles.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Geelong don't go too deep into drafts. 2009 was a poor draft for most heading into it and i argued we should go deeper than pick 23 and i opposed the Dalziell trade. Geelong used more picks than we did after winning a flag than we did in the same year finishing 11th. So the argument about "a stable playing group" is rubbish, the correct term would be "stale".

Long term success can be tracked by how many players you debut each season and if you pick only two players you have to get those picks right.

Because the average age differential between the youngest and oldest in the average premiership team is just under 11 years. Meaning you need to draft two premiership players per year over a 11 year cycle. Obviously you have a core group of players within 5 years of age and the better kids and better senior players fill the rest of the team.

For the purpose of developing a squad capable of winning a flag you need to pick more than two players each year. Otherwise you need you're playing catch up.

2004 - LeCras, Rosa (traded in premiership player)
2005 - Hurn (from three picks)
2006 - McKenzie, Schofield, Brown (from five picks)
2007 - Masten, Scooter, Kennedy (McGinnity?) (from five picks + Kennedy)
2008 - Naitanui, Shuey and Smith (Swift?) (from five picks)
2009 - (Sheppard, Stevens, Weedon, Neates?) (from four picks)
2010 - Gaff, Darling (Lycett, Wilson?) (from four picks)

Bolded players give us a return of 2 potential premiership players out of our last seven drafts and that's after we bottomed out. We need to match our last seven years over the next four/ five if we are to be competitive at the end of those five years.

We traded Ebert who would have been bolded in this list for pick 29 and im not thrilled with trading 45 who would be an unknown for Hill who i have little regard for as an AFL footballer. It doesn't look like superb list management, it looks like damage control. But we shall see.

Also by going shallow into draft's you end up going after less speculative and safer picks. Small forwards wouldn't be an issue if we went deeper into drafts.

Next years draft is deeper but it's still compromised. You would be looking at a pick in the second half of the 50's for a third rounder if you finished in the top eight. In saying that we might be trading out a few players at the end of next year.

 

[adagio]

23: Brad Mackenzie
28: Jordan Lockyer

 

[SwiftforPM]

23. Newman
28. McInnes

 

[makaveli01]

23: Brad Mackenzie
28: Jordan Lockyer

Thankyou. Thought i was the only one that rated mackenzie around here. Best kick in the draft and excellent decision making yet most around here would prefer an undersized mid/forward in Newman.

 

[Masto]

Brad Mackenzie - The last thing we need is another halfback flanker, especially a slow one. We've got them (and inside midfielders) coming out of our wazoo. I would be surprised if he was on our radar. We need some classy and pacy outside finishers and maybe a successor to Darren Glass.