List Mgmt. Draft Watch 2015

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Can someone please re-send the link for the tickets. I have a confirmation Order number from Ticketmaster but no tickets. What's the afl link?
 
My thinking for the top 20 (25) 2 weeks out

Carlton Weitering KPD
Brisbane Schache KPF
Melbourne Parish Mid
Essendon Curnow Utility
Essendon Weideman KPF
Gold Coast Oliver Mid
Melbourne Francis Utility
Carlton H McKay KPF
Adelaide Milera Mid
Carlton Mathieson Mid
Richmond Ah Chee Small Fwd
Adelaide Burton Utility
St Kilda Tucker Mid
Hawthorn Bonner Mid
Gold Coast Collins KPD
North Melbourne Gresham Small Fwd
Hawthorn Clarke Mid
Carlton B McKay KPD
Bulldogs Balic Mid
Bulldogs Hibberd Utility

Academy Picks Player Position
Sydney (3) Mills Mid
GWS (5) Hopper Mid
GWS (9) Kennedy Mid
Brisbane (14) Hipwood KPP
Brisbane (19) Keays Mid
 
My thinking for the top 20 (25) 2 weeks out

Carlton Weitering KPD
Brisbane Schache KPF
Melbourne Parish Mid
Essendon Curnow Utility
Essendon Weideman KPF
Gold Coast Oliver Mid
Melbourne Francis Utility
Carlton H McKay KPF
Adelaide Milera Mid
Carlton Mathieson Mid
Richmond Ah Chee Small Fwd
Adelaide Burton Utility
St Kilda Tucker Mid
Hawthorn Bonner Mid
Gold Coast Collins KPD
North Melbourne Gresham Small Fwd
Hawthorn Clarke Mid
Carlton B McKay KPD
Bulldogs Balic Mid
Bulldogs Hibberd Utility

Academy Picks Player Position
Sydney (3) Mills Mid
GWS (5) Hopper Mid
GWS (9) Kennedy Mid
Brisbane (14) Hipwood KPP
Brisbane (19) Keays Mid
Reckon this is pretty spot on.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Essendon take Francis (leaving Melbourne to pick up Curnow), St Kilda take Balic and Hawthorn get Collins.
 
I didn't want us to go tall as I had an opinion that the fail rate for talls was really high in the first round so went and did some research. I looked back from the 2011 or 2012 draft (after this its too early to tell) and looked at top 15/first round picks in 5 years or so of drafting

Fail
Day
Gorringe
Cook
Butcher
Watts
Vickery (I say fail, some might disagree)
Johnston
Cordy

Pass
Tom Lynch x2
Talia
Nic Nat
Phil Davis

The pass rate for non talls is much higher.

Bottom line is talls seem to have a lower success rate but we've been successful when we've drafted talls early in the last few years or so (before that, not so good). I back in our recruiters in if they want to go a McKay or similar with one of our picks.
 

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I didn't want us to go tall as I had an opinion that the fail rate for talls was really high in the first round so went and did some research. I looked back from the 2011 or 2012 draft (after this its too early to tell) and looked at top 15/first round picks in 5 years or so of drafting

Fail
Day
Gorringe
Cook
Butcher
Watts
Vickery (I say fail, some might disagree)
Johnston
Cordy

Pass
Tom Lynch x2
Talia
Nic Nat
Phil Davis

The pass rate for non talls is much higher.

Bottom line is talls seem to have a lower success rate but we've been successful when we've drafted talls early in the last few years or so (before that, not so good). I back in our recruiters in if they want to go a McKay or similar with one of our picks.
I'd even take our tom lynch and Phil Davis out of the pass mark if you're talking relative to their draft position. Both second round picks for mine (Davis unlucky with injury)
 
Anyone else get the feeling that Francis is shaping up as the Dangerfield Vs. Ebert debate. Imagine the meltdown on this board if we overlook Francis for a Victorian kid who is a couple of years away from playing! :eek::D

Didn't Hamish say they were very keen on Fransis?

I don't ever recall anyone saying that about Ebert.
 
If McKay and Francis are there at 8, do you think Carlton would take McKay?

Thats a tough one.

Judging by SOS' comments that given the number/placement of our picks it allows us to be "strategic" on draft night.

So going by that logic, I'd say McKay as we could still get a decent midfielder in whats said to be a fairly even second tier crop just two picks picks later.

On the flipside, it could also mean that we take Francis at #8 and then select on need at #11 and #19.

1. Weitering
8. H. McKay
11. Oliver
19. best available (if Gresham is gone - would even reach here for B McKay IMO).
 
I may be missing something here, but do we really need Bonner?

I know we've been de-void of good kicks of the pill recently, but with Smithers, the acquisitions of Hampton and Seedsman, Laird's emergence across half back, and Wigg developing (all these guys are younger than 24 I believe), surely we have enough for that half-back position for a while to come.

I would have thought we wait and see how these blokes go this year before we decide to start developing another similar type.

How is his pace? Unless he develops more into an outside mid, I think speed and KPF (given our lack of depth here) are more pressing issues.
 
My Predicted Draft:
1. Carlton - Weitering
2. Brisbane - Schache
*** 3. Melbourne - Parish
4. Essendon - Weideman
5. Essendon - Oliver
6.Gold Coast - Milera
7. Melbourne - Curnow
8. Carlton - H McKay
9. Adelaide - Francis
10. Carlton - Mathieson
11. Richmond - Ah Chee
12. Adelaide - Tucker
13. St Kilda - Hibberd
14. Hawthorn Collins
15.Gold Coast - Gresham
16. North Melbourne - Balic
17. Hawthorn - Bonner
18.Carlton Burton
19. Bulldogs - Ben McKay

*** I think Melbourne's pick here could change a lot if they go Weidemann
 
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Potentially controversial, but I reckon McKay will be a flop. Yes he towers over the other 18 year olds but he looks soft. Tentative. Doesn't look to have the natural inclination to use his mass to out muscle his direct opponent let alone split a pack. In 5 years he may develop into a Jenkins type but that's not worth a first rounder in my book
Not sure if serious. He is a genuine bottom ager that makes the cut off for this draft by some 5 odd days. When I see him I see a very talented, mobile, agile big that marks at the peak of his height (like Tippett). This means that at his size, he is extremely difficult to spoil because he marks the ball it it's highest point. Left footer so turns the opponents inside out a lot. Not afraid to get his knees and hands dirty by hunting the ball at ground level.

When you take everything into account, this kid will be a gun in 4-5 years time. If Francis is gone at 9, then I want this kid. Even if Francis is there, I am thinking it would be a difficult decision for the club to make.

I suspect Carlton are a certainty to take him at 8. Not great for him to go to a club like Carlton in terms of his development. I think he would absolutely flourish at our club with the development program and reserves side we have in place.
 
Didn't Hamish say they were very keen on Fransis?

I don't ever recall anyone saying that about Ebert.
I watched the first quarter of the SA vs WA championship game and Hamish was in the commentary box (for that quarter) and he kept looking out for Francis.

He'd say "Francis has started in the middle"
"Francis has pushed forward" etc.

He clearly has yes on him.
 
My Predicted Draft:
1. Carlton - Weitering
2. Brisbane - Schache
*** 3. Melbourne - Parish
4. Essendon - Weideman
5. Essendon - Oliver
6.Gold Coast - Milera
7. Melbourne - Curnow
8. Carlton - H McKay
9. Adelaide - Francis
10. Carlton - Mathieson
11. Richmond - Ah Chee Small
12. Adelaide - Tucker
13. St Kilda - Hibberd
14. Hawthorn Collins
15.Gold Coast - Gresham
16. North Melbourne - Balic
17. Hawthorn - Bonner
18.Carlton Burton
19. Bulldogs - Ben McKay

*** I think Melbourne's pick here could change a lot if they go Weidemann

I get the feeling most of us are trying to find ways that Francis falls to 9. I genuinely don't think it will happen.
Gold Coast, Melbourne, Essendon or Carlton will grab him. They would all be crazy to pass him over. I think Gold Coast will grab him.
 

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