Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Free Agency Period​

The AFL introduced free agency at the end of the 2012 season, giving players another vehicle where they can transfer from one club to another. Free agency is a common form of player movement in major football and sporting codes around the world.

Free Agency Opens: Friday October 4 at 9.00am
Free Agency Closes: Friday October 11 at 5.00pm

Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period​

Trade Period Opens: Monday October 7 at 9.00am
Trade Period Closes: Wednesday October 16 at 7.30pm

 

[tielgaz]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://twitter.com/superfooty/status/1840945407503028729%3Fref_src%3Dtwsrc%255Egoogle%257Ctwcamp%255Eserp%257Ctwgr%255Etweet&ved=2ahUKEwjRsrrkmeyIAxWDsFYBHTjTIm8QglR6BAggEAU&usg=AOvVaw30arJd6ZIkyKcOViNyv1XP

So his not interested in going to the cats then, ok into the next rumour…

 

[Jumping Jack]

Oliver is meeting with GFC again today (reported in media).

I think it's just the one "official" meeting but has been reported differently via some outlets.

Happy just to sit back and see what unfolds but for me there's a few interesting aspects to keep in mind:

1/ If Geelong due their due diligence and assess that they want the player then that's good enough for me. Steve Hocking and Chris Scott (plus our list managers) have credits in the bank
2/ If the net impact on our cap is $700k - $800k pa for Oliver then it's a win (assuming MFC pay some of his remaining salary each year). Didn't we recently sign Stengle on $800k pa. Perspective people.
3/ And Smith has already been mentioned as not coming across on a high contract - it was more about tenure which might see a 6 year deal on the table and a few trigger clauses based on performance to get more $$

Would be a generational outcome for our list and we'd be the envy of 17 other clubs if we land both players. Particularly if we retain future picks and can manage our cap to load up at the end of 2026 on the kid from WA (Reid).

 

[Commando]

Oliver thing is getting legs
So we could potentially land
Smith, Oliver, then Butters next year FA?

 

[Commando]

So his not interested in going to the cats then, ok into the next rumour…

Yes he wants Melbourne
But do Melbourne want him

 

[OzeSparky]

Cornes saying we are mad if we don’t get a ruck in.

Why Geelong would be “crazy” not to go after a ruckman and the depth ruck who should be targeted — SEN

“Geelong fans should be furious if they don’t go and address that issue.”

apple.news

 

[year of the cat]

I think it's just the one "official" meeting but has been reported differently via some outlets.

Happy just to sit back and see what unfolds but for me there's a few interesting aspects to keep in mind:

1/ If Geelong due their due diligence and assess that they want the player then that's good enough for me. Steve Hocking and Chris Scott (plus our list managers) have credits in the bank
2/ If the net impact on our cap is $700k - $800k pa for Oliver then it's a win (assuming MFC pay some of his remaining salary each year). Didn't we recently sign Stengle on $800k pa. Perspective people.
3/ And Smith has already been mentioned as not coming across on a high contract - it was more about tenure which might see a 6 year deal on the table and a few trigger clauses based on performance to get more $$

Would be a generational outcome for our list and we'd be the envy of 17 other clubs if we land both players. Particularly if we retain future picks and can manage our cap to load up at the end of 2026 on the kid from WA (Reid).

I’m not sure we are going to be able to satisfy MFC in a trade. It’s going to be an interesting next fortnight or so.

 

[Cataholic]

So are we trying to convince Oliver to come to us or is he trying to convince us to take him at this meeting?

If both are keen and the Dees indeed want him out, I'd say it's more likely than unlikely that he will be a Cat next year.

I'm sure it was year of the cat who posted that 'Oliver is meeting with the Cats again today'.

Emphasis is mine.

But that word suggests - to me - that he remains interested, despite Ralphy reporting today that he's told Melbourne he's happy to stay.

 

[Cataholic]

So his not interested in going to the cats then, ok into the next rumour…

Well, he IS meeting with the Cats today, and apparently not for the first time, so there's interest of some sort at the very least.

 

[#cats2021]

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://twitter.com/superfooty/status/1840945407503028729%3Fref_src%3Dtwsrc%255Egoogle%257Ctwcamp%255Eserp%257Ctwgr%255Etweet&ved=2ahUKEwjRsrrkmeyIAxWDsFYBHTjTIm8QglR6BAggEAU&usg=AOvVaw30arJd6ZIkyKcOViNyv1XP

Not fussed if we don't get him but Oliver's logic seems slightly contradictory. Not sure you'd be meeting with other clubs if you're 100% happy and not going anywhere. Interesting spin occuring around this story.

 

[#cats2021]

I’m not sure we are going to be able to satisfy MFC in a trade. It’s going to be an interesting next fortnight or so.

If we were to go down this path (big if) he isn't worth much. Huge contract, worst career year, off-field problems etc.

Melbourne may get to the point where they just want to offload him.

He's a distressed asset, we would be ruthless at the trade table on this one and rightfully so.

 

[D BRIDGE]

This has blown up again in the last few days when Oliver learnt he was being shopped around. He has always wanted to stay but feels blindsided by Melbourne. He had met with us earlier this year and we are his clear preference if he is to leave. Which looks increasingly likely with what’s transpired.

If all this is true then it sounds like he is goners and will be a cat in the next few weeks.

Dees want him out.
He is starting to lean towards going and like us as his best option.
We are interested and have been for 12+ months.

I think it's very likely to happen as long as we don't scare him off (which we won't) and he gives us confidence he can get back to near his best in today's chat.

 

[Reg Hickey]

Interesting thought but i can't really see anyone willing to give up millions over 6 years(that is what the indexing would = most likely)

Not sure it would be quite that much.

But you're right, all other things being equal, no player is going to just walk away from money like that. But I'm not sure all other things are equal here.

I think the question is, how important is it to him to get out of Melbourne?

If he's happy to stay, take the heat and hold them to the contract that's in place, fine.

But if the environment doesn't work for him, if he has damaged relationships with other players and coaches, and if he doesn't think he can be happy, healthy and productive there, then maybe getting out has a real dollar value to him.

Maybe instead of $1.1m a year, he'd be happy with $900k* if it gets him into a much better environment where he can get back to playing his best football.

Maybe he thinks that at Melbourne he'd be lucky to make it to the end of the current contract before he blows up or burns out, whereas in a new environment he thinks he could go an extra couple of years after it expires, and end up making more money overall.

I see it a little like Jezza, Danger, Smith (if reports are to be believed) and others taking less $$$ at Geelong than they could get at other clubs. Yes it is different because he has an existing contract in place, but not that different. He just has to agree to an amendment to his contract rather than a new one.

Of course, I don't know shit, this is all just spitballing.


* And half the difference would go in tax, so net he'd really only be $100k per year worse off.

 

[catempire]

I understand the premise, that perhaps he's being unfairly judged based on his previous standards. But I feel Holmes was clearly more impactful than Oliver this year, perhaps Danger also.

I’m not going to die in a ditch over it. Holmes had a better season but much of it off half back. Danger had a good year but was a burst player. If Oliver had played for Geelong this year he would have had more midfield impact than both.

 

[cats_09]

 

[Lana]

Port almost got away with it. Bloody funny steal by Collingwood

 

[year of the cat]

If all this is true then it sounds like he is goners and will be a cat in the next few weeks.

Dees want him out.
He is starting to lean towards going and like us as his best option.
We are interested and have been for 12+ months.

I think it's very likely to happen as long as we don't scare him off (which we won't) and he gives us confidence he can get back to near his best in today's chat.

It’s a bizarre set of circumstances. You have a guy on a massive long term contract who until the last few days thought he was staying at that club only to learn he’s being shopped around. Then the club says publicly he’s a wanted player which is clearly bullshit. Just demonstrates a) how ruthless AFL is and its little wonder many players these days are cynical about the industry they are in AND b) how utterly unprofessional and really incompetent MFC are.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Are you saying we get Oliver and pick 5 for taking him? Turn it up….

Never turn it up or down.
Bowes is a fine example of salary dumping at its finest.
Right place right time is all it takes sometimes.

 

[Reg Hickey]

Are you saying we get Oliver and pick 5 for taking him? Turn it up….

Yeah that's not gonna happen...

... unless we send, for example, FR1 and FR2 the other way.

Assuming the club is satisfied with their DD on him, and Melbourne agrees to pay part of his salary, I'd do that deal. We would have virtually no presence at all in next year's draft, but we would add Smith, Oliver and a top 10 pick in a reportedly very strong draft this year. Yes please.

 

[Willo_]

Oliver is meeting with GFC again today (reported in media).

Just my personal view is this feels like it has gone from no chance to a VERY REAL chance very quickly.
I have no idea how it all could happen, but geeze it is exciting regardless



and even if it did happen there is obviously no guarantee that it works out of course

 

[year of the cat]

Forget pick 5. Pipe dream stuff.

 

[year of the cat]

Just my personal view is this feels like it has gone from no chance to a VERY REAL chance very quickly.
I have no idea how it all could happen, but geeze it is exciting regardless



and even if it did happen there is obviously no guarantee that it works out of course

The difficulty will be in facilitating a trade. I honestly have no idea in what form that would occur. I think the Melbourne preference was for him to go to a lowly club that would be prepared to trade a high pick (not sure there’s any interest to that effect). This has basically blown up in their face due to their duplicitous behaviour.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Very logical. If we pick up the entire contract, and we can afford it, I'm still not sure how Melbourne sells that trade to its members and stakeholders.

They're already in the spotlight, moving Oliver on for a junk pick won't go down well with their members and could very well see a drop in membership / revenue.

I think privately Dee's would be very open to doing what you have suggested. They'll want him, his problems and that contract gone. But how do they sell it to their people

On SM-A526B using BigFooty.com mobile app

PR wise it's a disaster. But PR wise they are stuffed anyway.
If it helps them fix their cap and hold onto other players its worth it for them even if they trade him for pick 80.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The difficulty will be in facilitating a trade. I honestly have no idea in what form that would occur. I think the Melbourne preference was for him to go to a lowly club that would be prepared to trade a high pick (not sure there’s any interest to that effect). This has basically blown up in their face due to their duplicitous behaviour.

They will trade him for a late pick after a lot of back and forth over how much of the contract they pay. They probably only want to pay 250-300 a year (like grundy and coll) but we probably want them to pay more.

 

[Willo_]

So his not interested in going to the cats then, ok into the next rumour…

you need to read the wording properly, very vague... saying he is happy to stay means he his happy to stay, but doesn't mean he is unhappy to leave..

Happy to stay could also mean "happy to stay if no deal can be done"
at this time of year, these newspaper articles and the click bait headings don't hold much weight, I mean Houston literally said on radio himself a month ago he wasn't leaving Port... then requests a trade end of season.

 

[OzeSparky]

Not surprised.

Right offer comes then we should accept it.