Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[sr36]

There are no players at Collingwood right now or before who are or acted like flogs? No? Hmm, none at all?

Of course there have been and probably still are. I wasn't actually saying they're flogs. Although I think you'd have to be a Hawks fan to like Mitchell.

Just wondering how Sicily losing it can be viewed as great leadership. Hawks is a different planet to where I live

 

[RCAB]

Of course there have been and probably still are. I wasn't actually saying they're flogs. Although I think you'd have to be a Hawks fan to like Mitchell.

Just wondering how Sicily losing it can be viewed as great leadership. Hawks is a different planet to where I live

Mitchell is fine. Would've had you playing finals now and would be making best use of Daicos unlike Fly this year

 

[sr36]

Mitchell is fine. Would've had you playing finals now and would be making best use of Daicos unlike Fly this year

Mitchell's coaching was better than fine this year. It was fantastic. Had you running patterns and spreading the field in a way that teams couldnt cope with.

I think you could have gone all the way this year with some luck. But you got unlucky with a super pumped Port on that narrow ground which doesn't suit you as it's hard to spread the field

 

[RCAB]

Mitchell's coaching was better than fine this year. It was fantastic. Had you running patterns and spreading the field in a way that teams couldnt cope with.

I think you could have gone all the way this year with some luck. But you got unlucky with a super pumped Port on that narrow ground which doesn't suit you as it's hard to spread the field

I'm not blaming the ground. Hawks fumbled more than I had seen all season, shank kicks, which was due to pressure but we'd managed fine before. A lot of unforced errors which then brought on more pressure. We played better in the second half. It was mainly mental.

 

[sr36]

Hawthorn is so far from the finished article that it would not surprise me if they entered 2025 with a completely different spine and system.

This year reminded me so much of Hawthorn circa 2006 - that team had an extremely raw Franklin, Roughead, and Lewis but tapped into players like Boyle, Barker, Brennan, Dawson, Smith, Everett and Jacobs, who weren’t around for 2008.

The real growth of that flag came from Hodge, Mitchell, Croad, Ladson, Campbell, Brown, and Osborne, who built up 50 to 100 games under Peter Schwab, plus Crawford and Dew.

My take is that the 2024 surge saw Hawthorn break through the bubble (using a system that other teams couldn’t crack) and mirror the 2007 season.

It will be interesting to see if Mitchell can replicate the Clarkson 2007-08 growth over the coming 12-24 months (who dipped back in 2009-11) before going again in 2012-15.

2006 v 2024

View attachment 2110957View attachment 2110958

Edit: Hawthorn actually went into 2007 with a younger team than 2006!

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Hawthorn’s current build is quite similar to the early Clarkson years (albeit with access to high draft picks)

I agree. I think Mitchell got a tactical jump on the comp this year with the way you were moving it. Your flankers were a real surprise packet and were spreading the field beautifully and with the way you were taking on tacklers with wider support runners. I suspect you'll come back to the field a bit in that respect as your style gets studied and copied and planned for, but you should be stronger in the down the line phases with the talls you're bringing in.

Hawks are usually an interesting and entertaining watch, because you have a culture of trend setting rather than copying.

 

[sr36]

I'm not blaming the ground. Hawks fumbled more than I had seen all season, shank kicks, which was due to pressure but we'd managed fine before. A lot of unforced errors which then brought on more pressure. We played better in the second half. It was mainly mental.

Blame isn't the right word. It's a factor though. It's a ground where you get more down the line footy as it's harder to spread or if you are hellbent on avoiding it, more unforced errors as passes get tighter and riskier with the lesser space. The upgrades you're getting to your aerial game will help more on a ground like that - in a match like that.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Big question is, will we still get 4pm Sunday games ?

Probably at least a couple after Easter Monday (fixture kind of needs it)

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Be interesting to see how the hawks do next year with a top 6 draw, not sure they have the talent to compete, especially in the midfield and up forward, am particularly interested in how they react to being given some of their own medicine, they seem to enjoy trolling, but cannot handle it coming the other way, i call it #sookball

What??? Hawthorn had a hard draw this year, and their strength is forward and their building midfield.. you’re clueless.

 

[Hawkk]

I agree. I think Mitchell got a tactical jump on the comp this year with the way you were moving it. Your flankers were a real surprise packet and were spreading the field beautifully and with the way you were taking on tacklers with wider support runners. I suspect you'll come back to the field a bit in that respect as your style gets studied and copied and planned for, but you should be stronger in the down the line phases with the talls you're bringing in.

Hawks are usually an interesting and entertaining watch, because you have a culture of trend setting rather than copying.

Hawthorn was never a realistic shot at a flag this year - to suggest otherwise is hyperbole.

Hawthorn’s defensive and forward setups were recalibrated on the run thanks to critical injuries to Blanc, Sicily (who played with one shoulder for half the season) and Lewis.

Because of this, the Hawks played a make-shift game style that restricted entrances and had a tiny forward line that relied on first-year AFL (and Hawthorn) players to kick goals.

Against the Dogs, 9 of 14 goals were kicked by new Hawthorn forwards; against Port, 7 of 11. Just under half of those goals were from Watson and Dear alone—would Dear have got game time at all if Lewis was fit?

That’s why the additions of Barrass and Battle are huge. Battle is a swingman, which means Sicily can go forward (as he did against GWS, Fremantle, and Port), and Barrass means that Hawthorn now has an intercept mark.

Hawthorn has enormous room in its cap (enough to have a crack at Smith and Mac Andrews in addition to Day and Battle), so it can also add more midfield depth and forward strength.

For Hawthorn to solidify itself as an actual top-four team (not just a team that gets on a run), they need Day, Newcombe, and Worpel to build on the 2024 successes and get more out of MacDonald and McKenzie.

Had Hawthorn won on Friday, do you realistically see them reversing the 14 goal loss at the MCG earlier this year? Without Frost, an underdone Day on a narrow SCG, which doesn’t allow them to play their chain-to-chain play from the halfback line?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Hawthorn was never a realistic shot at a flag this year - to suggest otherwise is hyperbole.

Hawthorn’s defensive and forward setups were recalibrated on the run thanks to critical injuries to Blanc, Sicily (who played with one shoulder for half the season) and Lewis.

Because of this, the Hawks played a make-shift game style that restricted entrances and had a tiny forward line that relied on first-year AFL (and Hawthorn) players to kick goals.

Against the Dogs, 9 of 14 goals were kicked by new Hawthorn forwards; against Port, 7 of 11. Just under half of those goals were from Watson and Dear alone—would Dear have got game time at all if Lewis was fit?

That’s why the additions of Barrass and Battle are huge. Battle is a swingman, which means Sicily can go forward (as he did against GWS, Fremantle, and Port), and Barrass means that Hawthorn now has an intercept mark.

Hawthorn has enormous room in its cap (enough to have a crack at Smith and Mac Andrews in addition to Day and Battle), so it can also add more midfield depth and forward strength.

For Hawthorn to solidify itself as an actual top-four team (not just a team that gets on a run), they need Day, Newcombe, and Worpel to build on the 2024 successes and get more out of MacDonald and McKenzie.

Had Hawthorn won on Friday, do you realistically see them reversing the 14 goal loss at the MCG earlier this year? Without Frost, an underdone Day on a narrow SCG, which doesn’t allow them to play their chain-to-chain play from the halfback line?

Mate, we almost beat Port at home, after they’d been embarrassed by 84pts the week earlier and came out breathing fire, and we barely played our way all night.

We’d have given every team in the top 4 a good shake.

 

[sr36]

What??? Hawthorn had a hard draw this year, and their strength is forward and their building midfield.. you’re clueless.

Flankers were the best in the comp this year, combined with Mitchell's coaching to spread the field, resulting in your transition being the best in the comp. Your mids go from inside to outside really well and your small forwards are pretty awesome, but they need that quick transition to give them space. The weakness is in the air, but that'll be improved in defence next year. You'll have issues if teams can go with your flankers and force you into going long down the line as your aerial game ahead of the ball will still be a weakness.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Flankers were the best in the comp this year, combined with Mitchell's coaching to spread the field, resulting in your transition being the best in the comp. Your mids go from inside to outside really well and your small forwards are pretty awesome, but they need that quick transition to give them space. The weakness is in the air, but that'll be improved in defence next year. You'll have issues if teams can go with your flankers and force you into going long down the line as your aerial game ahead of the ball will still be a weakness.

A lot of the weak links improve with next season.

Midfield wise the contest and depth, Ward/Mackenzie with a fit Day, firing Newcombe and Nash/Worpel, is a deep and class midfield.

Battle and Barrass to defense, battle maybe forward. Lewis back mid year for the forwards.

 

[Hawkk]

Mate, we almost beat Port at home, after they’d been embarrassed by 84pts the week earlier and came out breathing fire, and we barely played our way all night.

We’d have given every team in the top 4 a good shake.

I agree. We were close but I just couldn’t see us handle the tight confines of the SCG (without Frost, with an injury hampered Sicily and without the class of Day) or better still a rampaging Geelong (who slaughtered us twice this year) in the big dance.

For what it’s worth I think Port will get slaughtered this week - they’ve basically lost their half back line to injury or suspension and will probably need to play Charlie Dixon again.

I think we will be a far, far better rounded side once we can get some key inclusions at the trade table

 

[sr36]

A lot of the weak links improve with next season.

Midfield wise the contest and depth, Ward/Mackenzie with a fit Day, firing Newcombe and Nash/Worpel, is a deep and class midfield.

Battle and Barrass to defense, battle maybe forward. Lewis back mid year for the forwards.

I do think there will be a greater focus on combatting your patterns that will blunt your ball movement a bit, but if Lewis gets back and playing well, combined with the defenders added it should mean that any lessening in effectiveness of the game plan is compensated for with a stronger down the line game. It'll be a pretty complete 22. Getting them all on the park and kids back up and believing will be the task.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I agree. We were close but I just couldn’t see us handle the tight confines of the SCG (without Frost, with an injury hampered Sicily and without the class of Day) or better still a rampaging Geelong (who slaughtered us twice this year) in the big dance.

For what it’s worth I think Port will get slaughtered this week - they’ve basically lost their half back line to injury or suspension and will probably need to play Charlie Dixon again.

I think we will be a far, far better rounded side once we can get some key inclusions at the trade table

SCG really isn’t that much smaller than the G for width. Day and MacKenzie would have been good additions.

It all matters for nought though.

Going to be fun again in 2025, putting Barass and Battle in alongside Scrimshaw/Frost means that at any point we could throw Sicily, Battle or Weddle forward to stretch a team.

 

[sr36]

Going to be fun again in 2025, putting Barass and Battle in alongside Scrimshaw/Frost means that at any point we could throw Sicily, Battle or Weddle forward to stretch a team.

Your edge is runners - I hope you go that tall in defence, but Scrimshaw and Frost will be playing ressies if Barrass, Battle and Sicily are all fit.

 

[RCAB]

Your edge is runners - I hope you go that tall in defence, but Scrimshaw and Frost will be playing ressies if Barrass, Battle and Sicily are all fit.

Tell me you don't watch Hawks games, without telling me you don't watch Hawks games

 

[sr36]

Tell me you don't watch Hawks games, without telling me you don't watch Hawks games

What did you disagree with?

You spread the field like no other team in the comp. If you go with an extra aerialist - it'd be at the expense of a flanker, running to spread the field. It'd damage your advantage. Won't happen. It will be different aerialists rather than extra aerialists.

 

[RCAB]

What did you disagree with?

You spread the field like no other team in the comp. If you go with an extra aerialist - it'd be at the expense of a flanker, running to spread the field. It'd damage your advantage. Won't happen. It will be different aerialists rather than extra aerialists.

Scrimshaw in the VFL?

 

[sr36]

Scrimshaw in the VFL?

You might be right, but changing the balance might not be as desirable as you think.

 

[RCAB]

You might be right, but changing the balance might not be as desirable as you think.

Battle replaces Weddle.

Scrimshaw gets replaced by nobody or you haven't been watching. Scrimshaw would easily be Collingwood's best defender this year if he was in your side.

 

[sr36]

Battle replaces Weddle.

Scrimshaw gets replaced by nobody or you haven't been watching. Scrimshaw would easily be Collingwood's best defender this year if he was in your side.

I thought Frost was solid this year too, but the reality is you're bringing in two aerial defenders. You're not paying up for those two without them being straight into the team. Who are you leaving out of your best 22 without damaging your spread? Core back 4 of Hardwick, Battle, Barrass, Sicily with your runners alongside them seems the most likely planning to me. Bringing in those two at the expense of runners might not be the way to go. I hope you do it.

 

[RCAB]

I thought Frost was good this year too, but the reality is you're bringing in two aerial defenders. Who are you leaving out of your best 22 without damaging your spread?

If... If Barass comes, Frost is out.

Battle replaces Weddle, Weddle will play midfield, wing, ruck and forward, just like he did last week.

Morrison, Finn, Impey and Amon are all under scrutiny. Maybe even Hardwick. Even Weddle, he'll need to be a little less fumbly, as he was was very fumbly on Friday and probably cost us 2-3 goals, but he's a huge talent so I suspect they'll persist even with the errors.

 

[kranky al]

Mitchell's coaching was better than fine this year. It was fantastic. Had you running patterns and spreading the field in a way that teams couldnt cope with.

I think you could have gone all the way this year with some luck. But you got unlucky with a super pumped Port on that narrow ground which doesn't suit you as it's hard to spread the field

Yes.

Now imagine creating a game plan that works really well on your home field - and knowing that you will be getting to play the most important game of the year on that field. And as a bonus you play most of your games in the h and a on that very same field!! That way you perfect that game plan.

Recipe for success that!!!


Then as a special bonus in the three times in a row you get to the gf - you play interstate teams that get one or two games at that ground!!


Wow!!

 

[sr36]

If... If Barass comes, Frost is out.

Battle replaces Weddle, Weddle will play midfield, wing, ruck and forward, just like he did last week.

Morrison, Finn, Impey and Amon are all under scrutiny. Maybe even Hardwick. Even Weddle, he'll need to be a little less fumbly, as he was was very fumbly on Friday and probably cost us 2-3 goals, but he's a huge talent so I suspect they'll persist even with the errors.

I hope you're right, as I think it'll damage your strength. I'd love Hawks to replace Impey with a tall if I was an opposition coach.