Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[Hamingja]

What a big game we have coming up.

Collingwood will be desperate. If their losing streak extends another week, their season is in serious jeopardy. It will be finals-like intensity from them.

If we can manage to win, our season will once again have some serious momentum and we can consider ourselves right in the pack contending for a top 4 spot.

With a fairly kind fixture list to follow, we may even be odds on to get a top 4 place if we are on the winners list next weekend.

Pies have ended up exactly like us last year. Injuries, slow start, steadied the ship for a tilt, injuries again. End their season Geelong.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I hope that Hawkins pulls a Mooney and accepts that he is done. I worry that Scott can't make the difficult decision. Hawkins should still prepare as if he will be called up the season is unpredictable.

If Guthrie could have gotten some km done in the VFL I wanted him back in the AFL team as a defender though Humphries has since grabbed that spot.

I agree with you but i dont think hawkins will make it back from the injury in time so it will take it out of scotts hands.

Guthrie on the other hand is still best 22 but they cant play him half fit like they did last time this year. He needs vfl games first and if he runs out of time so be it.

 

[bruce lindner]

I think we'll likely finish 6th-8th which would be a great effort considering the transitional phase our list has been in - also, any exposure to first hand finals pressure for our inexperienced youth under the guidance of our experienced veterans will be crucial for their learning and development

 

[year of the cat]

Hawkins lack of mobility is such a liability that as long a Neale can cover ground it is a net positive

Neale is a far better proposition than Hawkins now who at least should now know that he’s rung every last drop out of his career. We can’t be looking to give “farewell” games when we are vying for finals. Different story if we were sitting outside the 8. It is what it is. There’s a new king.

 

[The_Koulouriotis_Fan]

I think we'll likely finish 6th-8th which would be a great effort considering the transitional phase our list has been in - also, any exposure to first hand finals pressure for our inexperienced youth under the guidance of our experienced veterans will be crucial for their learning and development

With our draw we're likely to finish top 4, biggest tests are Pies, Dogs and Freo

 

[Vdubs]

I think it was about 80% fixture based. Bit of negative variance in close games making up the other 20%.

Start of the year we beat teams we were better than (bonus win against Carlton).

Then we lost to teams better than us or around about our mark (aside from ugly loss to GC).

Then we have played teams that we are better than again we have won our last two.

Hawks have basically been the exact reverse of us with people getting carried away with their winning streak against dross before we have put them back into their place.

Not as black and white as that from my pov.
A lot to do with when and where you play a team.
Both Essendon and Hawthorn, maybe in different weeks, would have fared better against us. Both have been really good in many games- Bombers on Friday pm were fantastic.
Taking these 2 wins very happily, but difficult to assess us yet until the next big 3 games (Pies, Dogs, Freo)- that should tell us and the footy world where the Cats are at.

 

[Smelly Catt]

Pies have ended up exactly like us last year. Injuries, slow start, steadied the ship for a tilt, injuries again. End their season Geelong.

We have a solid track record of doing just that.

 

[CoolCat75]

I think we'll likely finish 6th-8th which would be a great effort considering the transitional phase our list has been in - also, any exposure to first hand finals pressure for our inexperienced youth under the guidance of our experienced veterans will be crucial for their learning and development

I think we can be anywhere from 3rd to 8th. But I essentially agree with you. And hopefully our first pick, whether it’s 12 or 16, will be for for B. Smith, so any finals experience is great experience for about 1/3 of our team.

 

[BigVic]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Geelong	17	6	0	135.6%
2.	Carlton	17	6	0	118.6%
3.	Sydney	16	7	0	129.1%
4.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	1	120.5%
5.	Essendon	14	8	1	101.0%
6.	Melbourne	14	9	0	105.6%
7.	GWS	13	10	0	107.8%
8.	Port Adelaide	13	10	0	103.6%
9.	Fremantle	12	10	1	105.8%
10.	Hawthorn	12	11	0	97.2%
11.	Collingwood	10	11	2	100.9%
12.	Western Bulldogs	10	13	0	103.2%
13.	Gold Coast	10	13	0	99.8%
14.	St Kilda	10	13	0	96.9%
15.	Adelaide	7	15	1	93.6%
16.	North Melbourne	6	17	0	74.3%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	67.9%
18.	West Coast	4	19	0	65.6%

QF1: GEELONG v Brisbane Lions
QF2: Carlton v SYDNEY
EF1: Essendon v PORT ADELAIDE
EF2: MELBOURNE v GWS

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Port Adelaide
SF2: CARLTON v Melbourne

PF1: GEELONG v Carlton
PF2: SYDNEY v Brisbane Lions

GF: GEELONG v Sydney




Home final vs Brisbane and an easy premiershio

 

[Mr Meow]

Not as black and white as that from my pov.
A lot to do with when and where you play a team.
Both Essendon and Hawthorn, maybe in different weeks, would have fared better against us. Both have been really good in many games- Bombers on Friday pm were fantastic.
Taking these 2 wins very happily, but difficult to assess us yet until the next big 3 games (Pies, Dogs, Freo)- that should tell us and the footy world where the Cats are at.

Well the facts are:

-We've beaten the teams in 2nd, 4th, 7th and 11th.
-We lost to the teams in 6th and 8th by about a goal.
-There have been some horror performances (or more like horror quarter/halves) as well.

Conclusion: we are thereabouts. It's going to depend on a) how we close out the H&A season and b) what our form line and injury list is like in September IF we are finalists. Oh and c) how we perform under pressure if we get there.

 

[Vdubs]

Well the facts are:

-We've beaten the teams in 2nd, 4th, 7th and 11th.
-We lost to the teams in 6th and 8th by about a goal.
-There have been some horror performances (or more like horror quarter/halves) as well.

Conclusion: we are thereabouts. It's going to depend on a) how we close out the H&A season and b) what our form line and injury list is like in September IF we are finalists. Oh and c) how we perform under pressure if we get there.

No outright favourite this week

 

[Vdubs]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Geelong	17	6	0	135.6%
2.	Carlton	17	6	0	118.6%
3.	Sydney	16	7	0	129.1%
4.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	1	120.5%
5.	Essendon	14	8	1	101.0%
6.	Melbourne	14	9	0	105.6%
7.	GWS	13	10	0	107.8%
8.	Port Adelaide	13	10	0	103.6%
9.	Fremantle	12	10	1	105.8%
10.	Hawthorn	12	11	0	97.2%
11.	Collingwood	10	11	2	100.9%
12.	Western Bulldogs	10	13	0	103.2%
13.	Gold Coast	10	13	0	99.8%
14.	St Kilda	10	13	0	96.9%
15.	Adelaide	7	15	1	93.6%
16.	North Melbourne	6	17	0	74.3%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	67.9%
18.	West Coast	4	19	0	65.6%

QF1: GEELONG v Brisbane Lions
QF2: Carlton v SYDNEY
EF1: Essendon v PORT ADELAIDE
EF2: MELBOURNE v GWS

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Port Adelaide
SF2: CARLTON v Melbourne

PF1: GEELONG v Carlton
PF2: SYDNEY v Brisbane Lions

GF: GEELONG v Sydney




Home final vs Brisbane and an easy premiershio

I'll have whatever you're having...

 

[dazbroncos]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Geelong	17	6	0	135.6%
2.	Carlton	17	6	0	118.6%
3.	Sydney	16	7	0	129.1%
4.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	1	120.5%
5.	Essendon	14	8	1	101.0%
6.	Melbourne	14	9	0	105.6%
7.	GWS	13	10	0	107.8%
8.	Port Adelaide	13	10	0	103.6%
9.	Fremantle	12	10	1	105.8%
10.	Hawthorn	12	11	0	97.2%
11.	Collingwood	10	11	2	100.9%
12.	Western Bulldogs	10	13	0	103.2%
13.	Gold Coast	10	13	0	99.8%
14.	St Kilda	10	13	0	96.9%
15.	Adelaide	7	15	1	93.6%
16.	North Melbourne	6	17	0	74.3%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	67.9%
18.	West Coast	4	19	0	65.6%

QF1: GEELONG v Brisbane Lions
QF2: Carlton v SYDNEY
EF1: Essendon v PORT ADELAIDE
EF2: MELBOURNE v GWS

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Port Adelaide
SF2: CARLTON v Melbourne

PF1: GEELONG v Carlton
PF2: SYDNEY v Brisbane Lions

GF: GEELONG v Sydney




Home final vs Brisbane and an easy premiershio

whats with the vague reverse troll?

Go Catters

 

[Biggy_Boy]

I think it was about 80% fixture based. Bit of negative variance in close games making up the other 20%.

Start of the year we beat teams we were better than (bonus win against Carlton).

Then we lost to teams better than us or around about our mark (aside from ugly loss to GC).

Then we have played teams that we are better than again we have won our last two.

Hawks have basically been the exact reverse of us with people getting carried away with their winning streak against dross before we have put them back into their place.

We've definitely improved since the middle of the year. Essendon are a good team this year. They just disposed of Collingwood. And we beat them comfortably. Hawthorn may not be top 8 quality, but they were in good form before we played them.

We have looked a far cry from the side that let Port blow them away in a half or GC smash them to bits in Darwin.

 

[allrighty]

I'll have whatever you're having...

I got us finishing third dropping one the Freo, with the Poos Pies 8th.

 

[allrighty]

We've definitely improved since the middle of the year. Essendon are a good team this year. They just disposed of Collingwood. And we beat them comfortably. Hawthorn may not be top 8 quality, but they were in good form before we played them.

We have looked a far cry from the side that let Port blow them away in a half or GC smash them to bits in Darwin.

GC in Darwin was an anomaly clearly. We are better than that and as you say have been thereabouts losing and not playing well.

If/when we click, look out

 

[Art Vandelay_]

That trip to Optus is tantalising.
I fully expect us to beat WB, Crows and Eagles at home. Would be shocked if we lost to North or Saints away.

Freo in Perth could make or break Top 4... Nay. Top 2.
Two home finals is in our reach. Go there and beat the dockers for the right.

 

[The_Koulouriotis_Fan]

We’re playing a lot better than we were when we won 7 in a row. Team cohesion and balance is better, we’re controlling games again. We won a few of those first 7 games with efficiency and grit.

 

[catempire]

Geelong is still sixth favourite for the flag - $21

As offended as we all are, the predictions of us catastrophically missing the 8 from here are improbable with our easy run home.

From here we play 4th, 13th, 3rd, 10th, 18th, 15th, 9th, 14th, 16th. On the most pessimistic of views we win 6 of those.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

That trip to Optus is tantalising.
I fully expect us to beat WB, Crows and Eagles at home. Would be shocked if we lost to North or Saints away.

Freo in Perth could make or break Top 4... Nay. Top 2.
Two home finals is in our reach. Go there and beat the dockers for the right.

Don't think it's going to matter much, we're playing Carlton or Essendon week 1 in 80% of the predictors.

Top 2 is effectively useless in that case.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Don't think it's going to matter much, we're playing Carlton or Essendon week 1 in 80% of the predictors.

Top 2 is effectively useless in that case.

Lose in Perth and 4th means Sydney in Sydney.
Give me those two at the G anyday.

It matters IMO.

 

[Mr Meow]

Love the confidence you guys have.
I'd be surprised if we win > 2 games with our current form and list profile.
Essendon have had recent losses; hardly due another one.
More like we are due a win.

You're fairly surprised right now.

 

[Mr Meow]

People generally struggle with basic probabilities.

I was sticking with 5th, but the Collingwood win brings top 4 into play - as long as we don't hit another slump.

 

[catempire]

People generally struggle with basic probabilities.

I was sticking with 5th, but the Collingwood win brings top 4 into play - as long as we don't hit another slump.

Yes similar for me. I said:

I have us most likely finishing 5th, which assumes we lose to Freo and Collingwood but win the rest.

Win one of those and we finish 3rd.

 

[year of the cat]

Finishing 2 or 3 and getting the Blues first up would be a great outcome. They flogged us last time but we are better now.