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Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Unless Brisbane or Freo sneak into 3rd it's effectively useless.
End up playing Carlton or Essendon on 8/10 of the predictors, so top 2 is irrelevant in that regard.
It will be carlton as ess wont make top 4.
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Unless Brisbane or Freo sneak into 3rd it's effectively useless.
End up playing Carlton or Essendon on 8/10 of the predictors, so top 2 is irrelevant in that regard.
YepSaints is a danger game at Marvel. We will need to play well to win that. You just know they'll put on a show because it's us and they're capable at Marvel (see last week's victory against Sydney).
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It felt like that in 2022 as well, so many 8 point games and we just kept getting the job done.Yep
And the Dogs are this week too. Yes we have the wood over them and it is at home but again it is a must win game for them and if their forward line fires they can be a good team.
Each week it seems we are having genuine 8 point games (even against teams outside the 8). We have won the last 3 of those!
If we retain our current side Saints have no chance of beating us at marvel, none!Saints is a danger game at Marvel. We will need to play well to win that. You just know they'll put on a show because it's us and they're capable at Marvel (see last week's victory against Sydney).
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Hmmm
I just mucked around with the ladder predictor for a bit and had us finishing 3rd, beating Carlton in the qualifying final and playing Freo in a prelim at the G.
Take that in a heartbeat.
W | L | D | % | ||
1. | Sydney | 18 | 5 | 0 | 134.4% |
2. | Carlton | 17 | 6 | 0 | 116.7% |
3. | Geelong | 16 | 7 | 0 | 114.7% |
4. | Fremantle | 15 | 7 | 1 | 114.6% |
5. | Brisbane Lions | 14 | 8 | 1 | 116.6% |
6. | Essendon | 13 | 9 | 1 | 99.3% |
7. | Melbourne | 13 | 10 | 0 | 104.1% |
8. | Hawthorn | 13 | 10 | 0 | 99.1% |
9. | Western Bulldogs | 12 | 11 | 0 | 109.4% |
10. | GWS | 12 | 11 | 0 | 104.2% |
11. | Collingwood | 11 | 10 | 2 | 102.2% |
12. | Gold Coast | 11 | 12 | 0 | 103.0% |
13. | Port Adelaide | 11 | 12 | 0 | 98.9% |
14. | St Kilda | 9 | 14 | 0 | 94.6% |
15. | Adelaide | 8 | 14 | 1 | 101.3% |
16. | West Coast | 5 | 18 | 0 | 73.2% |
17. | Richmond | 4 | 19 | 0 | 70.2% |
18. | North Melbourne | 2 | 21 | 0 | 67.7% |
Just casting line after line hereQF1: SYDNEY v Fremantle
W L D % 1. Sydney 18 5 0 134.4% 2. Carlton 17 6 0 116.7% 3. Geelong 16 7 0 114.7% 4. Fremantle 15 7 1 114.6% 5. Brisbane Lions 14 8 1 116.6% 6. Essendon 13 9 1 99.3% 7. Melbourne 13 10 0 104.1% 8. Hawthorn 13 10 0 99.1% 9. Western Bulldogs 12 11 0 109.4% 10. GWS 12 11 0 104.2% 11. Collingwood 11 10 2 102.2% 12. Gold Coast 11 12 0 103.0% 13. Port Adelaide 11 12 0 98.9% 14. St Kilda 9 14 0 94.6% 15. Adelaide 8 14 1 101.3% 16. West Coast 5 18 0 73.2% 17. Richmond 4 19 0 70.2% 18. North Melbourne 2 21 0 67.7%
QF2: Carlton v GEELONG
EF1: Brisbane Lions v HAWTHORN
EF2: ESSENDON v Melbourne
SF1: FREMANTLE v Hawthorn
SF2: CARLTON v Essendon
PF1: SYDNEY v Carlton
PF2: GEELONG v Fremantle
GF: Sydney v GEELONG
The most likely path
QF1: SYDNEY v Fremantle
W L D % 1. Sydney 18 5 0 134.4% 2. Carlton 17 6 0 116.7% 3. Geelong 16 7 0 114.7% 4. Fremantle 15 7 1 114.6% 5. Brisbane Lions 14 8 1 116.6% 6. Essendon 13 9 1 99.3% 7. Melbourne 13 10 0 104.1% 8. Hawthorn 13 10 0 99.1% 9. Western Bulldogs 12 11 0 109.4% 10. GWS 12 11 0 104.2% 11. Collingwood 11 10 2 102.2% 12. Gold Coast 11 12 0 103.0% 13. Port Adelaide 11 12 0 98.9% 14. St Kilda 9 14 0 94.6% 15. Adelaide 8 14 1 101.3% 16. West Coast 5 18 0 73.2% 17. Richmond 4 19 0 70.2% 18. North Melbourne 2 21 0 67.7%
QF2: Carlton v GEELONG
EF1: Brisbane Lions v HAWTHORN
EF2: ESSENDON v Melbourne
SF1: FREMANTLE v Hawthorn
SF2: CARLTON v Essendon
PF1: SYDNEY v Carlton
PF2: GEELONG v Fremantle
GF: Sydney v GEELONG
The most likely path
QF1: SYDNEY v Fremantle
W L D % 1. Sydney 18 5 0 134.4% 2. Carlton 17 6 0 116.7% 3. Geelong 16 7 0 114.7% 4. Fremantle 15 7 1 114.6% 5. Brisbane Lions 14 8 1 116.6% 6. Essendon 13 9 1 99.3% 7. Melbourne 13 10 0 104.1% 8. Hawthorn 13 10 0 99.1% 9. Western Bulldogs 12 11 0 109.4% 10. GWS 12 11 0 104.2% 11. Collingwood 11 10 2 102.2% 12. Gold Coast 11 12 0 103.0% 13. Port Adelaide 11 12 0 98.9% 14. St Kilda 9 14 0 94.6% 15. Adelaide 8 14 1 101.3% 16. West Coast 5 18 0 73.2% 17. Richmond 4 19 0 70.2% 18. North Melbourne 2 21 0 67.7%
QF2: Carlton v GEELONG
EF1: Brisbane Lions v HAWTHORN
EF2: ESSENDON v Melbourne
SF1: FREMANTLE v Hawthorn
SF2: CARLTON v Essendon
PF1: SYDNEY v Carlton
PF2: GEELONG v Fremantle
GF: Sydney v GEELONG
The most likely path
So much commitment to failed fishing trips I thought he was my dad for a minuteThank you for your weekly posts, but there usefulness & interest have the run the course
Time for you to run on & return to whatever forum it is you call home - don't need further editions of these updates
I would expect Freo to beat us in WA, and who knows with St. Kilda this year. If our form holds up, we should be able to win most games, though. That said, after round 1-7, I would have predicted us to win more than one game from rounds 8-15.We are heavy favourites against the Bulldogs. Bookies and punters know our record against the Dogs at KP.
View attachment 2048454
Right at this moment we would be favourites in all of our run home games. Freo would be the closest but the others we are actually very firm favourites.
We are more likely than not to make top 4. We would need something unlikely to finish above 3rd. Carlton at the G appears to be the best pathway at this point.
A lot depends on:I would expect Freo to beat us in WA, and who knows with St. Kilda this year. If our form holds up, we should be able to win most games, though. That said, after round 1-7, I would have predicted us to win more than one game from rounds 8-15.
St Kilda has won 6 games this year. Enough said.I would expect Freo to beat us in WA, and who knows with St. Kilda this year. If our form holds up, we should be able to win most games, though. That said, after round 1-7, I would have predicted us to win more than one game from rounds 8-15.
Thanks for sharing this. Seems it's gone right back to rounds 1-7 in that our scores from turnover differential is back to nearly league-best (it had dipped back to nearly league worst in the bad patch) and our ball movement/options have dramatically improved. The panic kick down the line trend was killing us.On SEN, they had Champion Data talk about what's changed with Geelong since the bye, besides the personal changes.
- For the first 14-15 weeks, we where doing the most difficult kicks in the competition and was number 1 for kicking it long down the line. The degree of difficulty of kicks that we where trying to pull off was making life far harder for ourselves then it needed to be.
- Now we're 9th for pulling off the easiest kicks and we've gone from going down the line more than anyone else in the competition to now doing it the 4th least.
- We're number 1 for trying to switch the ball over the past month.
- We're the 4th best team at punishing you when you turn it over.
- We've also gone from taking the fewest uncontested marks in the competition to 4th most uncontested marks.
- We're number 1 hardest team to score against once we turn it over.
Not completely irrelevant perhaps. In 2022, we finished 1st, Pies 4th.Unless Brisbane or Freo sneak into 3rd it's effectively useless.
End up playing Carlton or Essendon on 8/10 of the predictors, so top 2 is irrelevant in that regard.
Nice insights! Which SEN program was this? Might try dig up the audioOn SEN, they had Champion Data talk about what's changed with Geelong since the bye, besides the personal changes.
- For the first 14-15 weeks, we where doing the most difficult kicks in the competition and was number 1 for kicking it long down the line. The degree of difficulty of kicks that we where trying to pull off was making life far harder for ourselves then it needed to be.
- Now we're 9th for pulling off the easiest kicks and we've gone from going down the line more than anyone else in the competition to now doing it the 4th least.
- We're number 1 for trying to switch the ball over the past month.
- We're the 4th best team at punishing you when you turn it over.
- We've also gone from taking the fewest uncontested marks in the competition to 4th most uncontested marks.
- We're number 1 hardest team to score against once we turn it over.
I agree this is a very significant factor. Throughout the back end of '22, you saw us pressing up relentlessly around the ball in the quest for a turnover. It meant that there were some easy goals to be had if the opposition could work the ball through our high press. But it often resulted in a turnover (or even just a stoppage) that enabled us to turn the momentum around and work on taking the ball forward from there.A lot of those stats differences will just be about us winning more territory from midfield than actually changing decisions.
It's hard to be really creative and change angles when you're normally winning the ball on turnover deep in defence with the opposition set up defensively. Turn it over around the middle of the ground and you're likely to have many more options to be creative without taking huge risks.
Nice insights! Which SEN program was this? Might try dig up the audio
I got it from here.
Geelong's segment is 27 mins 34 sec in: