Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[Pure_Ownage]

Unless Brisbane or Freo sneak into 3rd it's effectively useless.

End up playing Carlton or Essendon on 8/10 of the predictors, so top 2 is irrelevant in that regard.

It will be carlton as ess wont make top 4.

 

[CHAWKTS]

Saints is a danger game at Marvel. We will need to play well to win that. You just know they'll put on a show because it's us and they're capable at Marvel (see last week's victory against Sydney).

On SM-A526B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yep

And the Dogs are this week too. Yes we have the wood over them and it is at home but again it is a must win game for them and if their forward line fires they can be a good team.

Each week it seems we are having genuine 8 point games (even against teams outside the 8). We have won the last 3 of those!

 

[Taper]

Yep

And the Dogs are this week too. Yes we have the wood over them and it is at home but again it is a must win game for them and if their forward line fires they can be a good team.

Each week it seems we are having genuine 8 point games (even against teams outside the 8). We have won the last 3 of those!

It felt like that in 2022 as well, so many 8 point games and we just kept getting the job done.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

Saints is a danger game at Marvel. We will need to play well to win that. You just know they'll put on a show because it's us and they're capable at Marvel (see last week's victory against Sydney).

On SM-A526B using BigFooty.com mobile app

If we retain our current side Saints have no chance of beating us at marvel, none!

 

[catters_28]

Hmmm

I just mucked around with the ladder predictor for a bit and had us finishing 3rd, beating Carlton in the qualifying final and playing Freo in a prelim at the G.

Take that in a heartbeat.

 

[allrighty]

Hmmm

I just mucked around with the ladder predictor for a bit and had us finishing 3rd, beating Carlton in the qualifying final and playing Freo in a prelim at the G.

Take that in a heartbeat.

Live Ladders by Ranking Software

www.liveladders.com

Same with a ****teenth b/w us and the Boos

EDIT: Seriously? Perfteenth then

 

[catempire]

We are heavy favourites against the Bulldogs. Bookies and punters know our record against the Dogs at KP.



Right at this moment we would be favourites in all of our run home games. Freo would be the closest but the others we are actually very firm favourites.

We are more likely than not to make top 4. We would need something unlikely to finish above 3rd. Carlton at the G appears to be the best pathway at this point.

 

[allrighty]

Nine things we learned: Young gun relishes being top Dog

Luke Parker has a big role to play for the Swans, a Suns defender is on track for All-Australian, plus more round 18 lessons

www.afl.com.au

 

[BigVic]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Sydney	18	5	0	134.4%
2.	Carlton	17	6	0	116.7%
3.	Geelong	16	7	0	114.7%
4.	Fremantle	15	7	1	114.6%
5.	Brisbane Lions	14	8	1	116.6%
6.	Essendon	13	9	1	99.3%
7.	Melbourne	13	10	0	104.1%
8.	Hawthorn	13	10	0	99.1%
9.	Western Bulldogs	12	11	0	109.4%
10.	GWS	12	11	0	104.2%
11.	Collingwood	11	10	2	102.2%
12.	Gold Coast	11	12	0	103.0%
13.	Port Adelaide	11	12	0	98.9%
14.	St Kilda	9	14	0	94.6%
15.	Adelaide	8	14	1	101.3%
16.	West Coast	5	18	0	73.2%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	70.2%
18.	North Melbourne	2	21	0	67.7%

QF1: SYDNEY v Fremantle
QF2: Carlton v GEELONG
EF1: Brisbane Lions v HAWTHORN
EF2: ESSENDON v Melbourne

SF1: FREMANTLE v Hawthorn
SF2: CARLTON v Essendon

PF1: SYDNEY v Carlton
PF2: GEELONG v Fremantle

GF: Sydney v GEELONG


The most likely path

 

[CatToTheFuture]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Sydney	18	5	0	134.4%
2.	Carlton	17	6	0	116.7%
3.	Geelong	16	7	0	114.7%
4.	Fremantle	15	7	1	114.6%
5.	Brisbane Lions	14	8	1	116.6%
6.	Essendon	13	9	1	99.3%
7.	Melbourne	13	10	0	104.1%
8.	Hawthorn	13	10	0	99.1%
9.	Western Bulldogs	12	11	0	109.4%
10.	GWS	12	11	0	104.2%
11.	Collingwood	11	10	2	102.2%
12.	Gold Coast	11	12	0	103.0%
13.	Port Adelaide	11	12	0	98.9%
14.	St Kilda	9	14	0	94.6%
15.	Adelaide	8	14	1	101.3%
16.	West Coast	5	18	0	73.2%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	70.2%
18.	North Melbourne	2	21	0	67.7%

QF1: SYDNEY v Fremantle
QF2: Carlton v GEELONG
EF1: Brisbane Lions v HAWTHORN
EF2: ESSENDON v Melbourne

SF1: FREMANTLE v Hawthorn
SF2: CARLTON v Essendon

PF1: SYDNEY v Carlton
PF2: GEELONG v Fremantle

GF: Sydney v GEELONG


The most likely path

Just casting line after line here

 

[BORIS332]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Sydney	18	5	0	134.4%
2.	Carlton	17	6	0	116.7%
3.	Geelong	16	7	0	114.7%
4.	Fremantle	15	7	1	114.6%
5.	Brisbane Lions	14	8	1	116.6%
6.	Essendon	13	9	1	99.3%
7.	Melbourne	13	10	0	104.1%
8.	Hawthorn	13	10	0	99.1%
9.	Western Bulldogs	12	11	0	109.4%
10.	GWS	12	11	0	104.2%
11.	Collingwood	11	10	2	102.2%
12.	Gold Coast	11	12	0	103.0%
13.	Port Adelaide	11	12	0	98.9%
14.	St Kilda	9	14	0	94.6%
15.	Adelaide	8	14	1	101.3%
16.	West Coast	5	18	0	73.2%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	70.2%
18.	North Melbourne	2	21	0	67.7%

QF1: SYDNEY v Fremantle
QF2: Carlton v GEELONG
EF1: Brisbane Lions v HAWTHORN
EF2: ESSENDON v Melbourne

SF1: FREMANTLE v Hawthorn
SF2: CARLTON v Essendon

PF1: SYDNEY v Carlton
PF2: GEELONG v Fremantle

GF: Sydney v GEELONG


The most likely path

I don't think we'll finish 3rd. We'll either finish 2nd or 5th - our Rd 22 game against Freo in WA will be the big decider.

 

[cats_09]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Sydney	18	5	0	134.4%
2.	Carlton	17	6	0	116.7%
3.	Geelong	16	7	0	114.7%
4.	Fremantle	15	7	1	114.6%
5.	Brisbane Lions	14	8	1	116.6%
6.	Essendon	13	9	1	99.3%
7.	Melbourne	13	10	0	104.1%
8.	Hawthorn	13	10	0	99.1%
9.	Western Bulldogs	12	11	0	109.4%
10.	GWS	12	11	0	104.2%
11.	Collingwood	11	10	2	102.2%
12.	Gold Coast	11	12	0	103.0%
13.	Port Adelaide	11	12	0	98.9%
14.	St Kilda	9	14	0	94.6%
15.	Adelaide	8	14	1	101.3%
16.	West Coast	5	18	0	73.2%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	70.2%
18.	North Melbourne	2	21	0	67.7%

QF1: SYDNEY v Fremantle
QF2: Carlton v GEELONG
EF1: Brisbane Lions v HAWTHORN
EF2: ESSENDON v Melbourne

SF1: FREMANTLE v Hawthorn
SF2: CARLTON v Essendon

PF1: SYDNEY v Carlton
PF2: GEELONG v Fremantle

GF: Sydney v GEELONG


The most likely path

Thank you for your weekly posts, but there usefulness & interest have the run the course

Time for you to run on & return to whatever forum it is you call home - don't need further editions of these updates

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Thank you for your weekly posts, but there usefulness & interest have the run the course

Time for you to run on & return to whatever forum it is you call home - don't need further editions of these updates

So much commitment to failed fishing trips I thought he was my dad for a minute

 

[Biggy_Boy]

We are heavy favourites against the Bulldogs. Bookies and punters know our record against the Dogs at KP.

View attachment 2048454

Right at this moment we would be favourites in all of our run home games. Freo would be the closest but the others we are actually very firm favourites.

We are more likely than not to make top 4. We would need something unlikely to finish above 3rd. Carlton at the G appears to be the best pathway at this point.

I would expect Freo to beat us in WA, and who knows with St. Kilda this year. If our form holds up, we should be able to win most games, though. That said, after round 1-7, I would have predicted us to win more than one game from rounds 8-15.

 

[Mr Meow]

I would expect Freo to beat us in WA, and who knows with St. Kilda this year. If our form holds up, we should be able to win most games, though. That said, after round 1-7, I would have predicted us to win more than one game from rounds 8-15.

A lot depends on:

-Dangerfield being fit/available
-Stewart and Cameron having decisive impacts

We focus on all the other shuffling of 17th-23rd best players and sure it can swing things a little, but I think the two factors above remain more important for grinding out wins.

 

[catempire]

I would expect Freo to beat us in WA, and who knows with St. Kilda this year. If our form holds up, we should be able to win most games, though. That said, after round 1-7, I would have predicted us to win more than one game from rounds 8-15.

St Kilda has won 6 games this year. Enough said.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

On SEN, they had Champion Data talk about what's changed with Geelong since the bye, besides the personal changes.

• For the first 14-15 weeks, we where doing the most difficult kicks in the competition and was number 1 for kicking it long down the line. The degree of difficulty of kicks that we where trying to pull off was making life far harder for ourselves then it needed to be.

• Now we're 9th for pulling off the easiest kicks and we've gone from going down the line more than anyone else in the competition to now doing it the 4th least.

• We're number 1 for trying to switch the ball over the past month.

• We're the 4th best team at punishing you when you turn it over.

• We've also gone from taking the fewest uncontested marks in the competition to 4th most uncontested marks.

• We're number 1 hardest team to score against once we turn it over.

 

[Mr Meow]

On SEN, they had Champion Data talk about what's changed with Geelong since the bye, besides the personal changes.

• For the first 14-15 weeks, we where doing the most difficult kicks in the competition and was number 1 for kicking it long down the line. The degree of difficulty of kicks that we where trying to pull off was making life far harder for ourselves then it needed to be.

• Now we're 9th for pulling off the easiest kicks and we've gone from going down the line more than anyone else in the competition to now doing it the 4th least.

• We're number 1 for trying to switch the ball over the past month.

• We're the 4th best team at punishing you when you turn it over.

• We've also gone from taking the fewest uncontested marks in the competition to 4th most uncontested marks.

• We're number 1 hardest team to score against once we turn it over.

Thanks for sharing this. Seems it's gone right back to rounds 1-7 in that our scores from turnover differential is back to nearly league-best (it had dipped back to nearly league worst in the bad patch) and our ball movement/options have dramatically improved. The panic kick down the line trend was killing us.

I also think the defenders have lifted their game a bit, outside of a few obvious mistakes. So we are stripping the ball back off opposition and getting the sling shot going.

 

[Footy Smarts]

A lot of those stats differences will just be about us winning more territory from midfield than actually changing decisions.

It's hard to be really creative and change angles when you're normally winning the ball on turnover deep in defence with the opposition set up defensively. Turn it over around the middle of the ground and you're likely to have many more options to be creative without taking huge risks.

 

[kickazz]

Unless Brisbane or Freo sneak into 3rd it's effectively useless.

End up playing Carlton or Essendon on 8/10 of the predictors, so top 2 is irrelevant in that regard.

Not completely irrelevant perhaps. In 2022, we finished 1st, Pies 4th.

In an effort to give us some sort of home advantage at the MCG, the Pies' home ground, we managed to get the AFL to give us a preferred timeslot of twilight Saturday. This time is shown to be more popular with Geelong fans coming from Geelong, so it could mean a more favourable crowd.

Whether or not the AFL honour such a principle in the future is not guaranteed, however.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

On SEN, they had Champion Data talk about what's changed with Geelong since the bye, besides the personal changes.

• For the first 14-15 weeks, we where doing the most difficult kicks in the competition and was number 1 for kicking it long down the line. The degree of difficulty of kicks that we where trying to pull off was making life far harder for ourselves then it needed to be.

• Now we're 9th for pulling off the easiest kicks and we've gone from going down the line more than anyone else in the competition to now doing it the 4th least.

• We're number 1 for trying to switch the ball over the past month.

• We're the 4th best team at punishing you when you turn it over.

• We've also gone from taking the fewest uncontested marks in the competition to 4th most uncontested marks.

• We're number 1 hardest team to score against once we turn it over.

Nice insights! Which SEN program was this? Might try dig up the audio

 

[goyoucatters]

A lot of those stats differences will just be about us winning more territory from midfield than actually changing decisions.

It's hard to be really creative and change angles when you're normally winning the ball on turnover deep in defence with the opposition set up defensively. Turn it over around the middle of the ground and you're likely to have many more options to be creative without taking huge risks.

I agree this is a very significant factor. Throughout the back end of '22, you saw us pressing up relentlessly around the ball in the quest for a turnover. It meant that there were some easy goals to be had if the opposition could work the ball through our high press. But it often resulted in a turnover (or even just a stoppage) that enabled us to turn the momentum around and work on taking the ball forward from there.

Through our drab passage this year, we seemed to be far too content to let the opposition bring the ball to just about their F50 without ever looking to turn the screw. This meant that even the turnovers or stoppages we generated were at totally the wrong end of the field, with very limited options for how you can rapidly spread the ball from there.

Admittedly this is all much easier to manage on our 'cheat ground'. But it's also the philosophy that carried us to big wins in late 2022 on the wide expanses of the 'G. So I really hope we pursue it strongly from here this season, knowing that proactive defensive efforts in our forward/mid zone are far more likely to assist the outcome than sagging back and hoping to neutralise the opposition closer to our own goal.

Bring the hunt, Catters...

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Nice insights! Which SEN program was this? Might try dig up the audio

I got it from here.

Geelong's segment is 27 mins 34 sec in:

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I got it from here.

Geelong's segment is 27 mins 34 sec in:

Legend cheers

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Discussion on our changes.

Gone from being the no.1 side at attempting the hard kicks and kicked to contest the most. Now (without Hawkins) we aim to switch more and and going for easier kicks, more uncontested marks and less down the line. This change in methodology is far closer as a premiership predictor than method we had.

Since personnel and position changes. Now 4th best at punishing teams with the footy, and the hardest to punish when opposition have the ball.