Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[Mr Meow]

I feel like the following is an "odd" profile for a team that may finish 2nd-3rd:

2024 Rankings (differential compared to opposition)

Contested possessions: 12th
Uncontested possessions: 14th
Hit Outs: 16th
Clearances: 13th
Tackles: 11th
Marks: 12th
Contested marks: 11th
Inside 50s: 8th
Handball receives: 17th

5th for points for, 10th for points against.

What we do very well is intercept. We create an abundance of scores from kick ins and turnovers compared to our opposition. We are elite at spoiling and winning ground ball + loose ball gets. Then we are efficient at converting inside 50s into scores from these situations.

I'm fairly confident in saying we would be an outlier team statistically if we were to go deep in September.

Of course the limitation of seasonal averages is they may no longer reflect current trends, which is why Champion Data tends to focus on 6 week blocks. On that basis we may be trending up. But I'd still say the way we are winning this year differs to a lot of top sides over recent years.

 

[Romeoh1]

Think we are a very good chance now to finish 2nd. We ended up having our little slump at the right time. If we get second- anything can happen. Go cats.

 

[goyoucatters]

I feel like the following is an "odd" profile for a team that may finish 2nd-3rd:

2024 Rankings (differential compared to opposition)

Contested possessions: 12th
Uncontested possessions: 14th
Hit Outs: 16th
Clearances: 13th
Tackles: 11th
Marks: 12th
Contested marks: 11th
Inside 50s: 8th
Handball receives: 17th

5th for points for, 10th for points against.

What we do very well is intercept. We create an abundance of scores from kick ins and turnovers compared to our opposition. We are elite at spoiling and winning ground ball + loose ball gets. Then we are efficient at converting inside 50s into scores from these situations.

I'm fairly confident in saying we would be an outlier team statistically if we were to go deep in September.

Thanks for all this info, Meowza. I think it underlines what I've found myself suspecting more and more again in recent weeks.

Our coach is the next best thing to a genius when it comes to wringing the best out of a compromised list. Set him any series of constraints and he'll find a compelling way to make the best of it.

And his 'making the best of it' is then regularly capable of troubling the best that any other club can ever muster. He really is insanely good at this coaching caper, as his long-term CV clearly shows.

#whatanappointmentwaybackwhen
#lovethisclub

 

[Vdubs]

I feel like the following is an "odd" profile for a team that may finish 2nd-3rd:

2024 Rankings (differential compared to opposition)

Contested possessions: 12th
Uncontested possessions: 14th
Hit Outs: 16th
Clearances: 13th
Tackles: 11th
Marks: 12th
Contested marks: 11th
Inside 50s: 8th
Handball receives: 17th

5th for points for, 10th for points against.

What we do very well is intercept. We create an abundance of scores from kick ins and turnovers compared to our opposition. We are elite at spoiling and winning ground ball + loose ball gets. Then we are efficient at converting inside 50s into scores from these situations.

I'm fairly confident in saying we would be an outlier team statistically if we were to go deep in September.

Of course the limitation of seasonal averages is they may no longer reflect current trends, which is why Champion Data tends to focus on 6 week blocks. On that basis we may be trending up. But I'd still say the way we are winning this year differs to a lot of top sides over recent years.

you covered it all, great summary

 

[Klink]

The only question is whether us or port finish 2nd which probably comes down to %..the rest i agree with.

Big chance Port drop one of their last two - they could quite easily lose both. Crows are very dangerous, in-form and will want to spoil the Port party. Freo will have it all on the line last round and unlikely to drop two in a row at home..

Very good chance percentage won't matter. In any case, if us and Port both win last two and they have superior percentage, a trip to Adelaide to play Port will hold no fears for us..

 

[Klink]

But first things first, lets get over the dangerous Saints at Marvel.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

But first things first, lets get over the dangerous Saints at Marvel.

I'm serious, would take winning that game by 1 pt and run.

That dumpster fire of a football club will turn into the Harlem Globetrotters for 15 minutes in the third quarter and ruin what now looks like a red carpet ride to top 2.

It's what they do. Never win anything themselves, but ruin someone else's year at the opportune moment.

 

[Klink]

I'm serious, would take winning that game by 1 pt and run.

That dumpster fire of a football club will turn into the Harlem Globetrotters for 15 minutes in the third quarter and ruin what now looks like a red carpet ride to top 2.

It's what they do. Never win anything themselves, but ruin someone else's year at the opportune moment.

Absolutely. We know Ross will be hell-bent on trying to ruin our season (still hates us after '09 IMO), we will have to be switched on from the get go and our pressure and intensity on point from the first minute. Snuff them out early, so they hopefully go quietly in the second half..

If they're in it at half time, they will get a sniff and push us right to the end, we need to kill them off early and they will lose interest.

If it's tight at the main break - they will be hell bent on causing an upset and will continue to work and run in waves imo.

 

[cats_09]

 

[Klink]

My exact prediction too

 

[CabWesty]

I figured we'd make the 8 and probably slide out of the finals early this year, so to be Top 4 at this point is great. I don't see most of the games, and probably find out more from here than elsewhere.

Guess the questions would be: who has moved forward in our list, who has remained the same, who have apparently dropped out of our main team, who has declined, and who has been injured at various times.

For me (and these are generalisations):

The guys who have come on better/faster than hoped
Dempsey, Mannagh, Humphreys, Neale, Conway (until injured)

The ones who have continued to improve:
Bowes, Bruhn, Holmes, Zuthrie

Those who haven't jumped up beyond previous years but have been generally solid:
Miers, Stengle, Close, Kolo, J Henry (considering 2 of them have been AA or AA squad that's damning with faint praise)

Those who haven't been quite up to their previous great seasons (and some of these come with a massive floor):
Danger, Stewart, Blicavs, Cameron, Duncan, Atkins (another 4 AAs there)

Much maligned but have played some great games in the midst of the criticism (but are getting toward falling out of the top 22):
Tuohy, Stanley, Rohan

Those who are still a couple of years away
Clark, O Henry, Mullin

Injury affected
C Guthrie, Hawk (though he really seemed to be labouring the couple of weeks prior to getting injured)

Dropped out of top 22
Bews, Parfitt

I think sometimes we forget how much depth we have, how many A graders we actually have, how well the players/squad have transitioned over the years, how good our coaching staff is (and what a generally quality bunch of supporters we have).

Father time is coming for a few of our guys.
I reckon this will be last season for Bews, Tuohy and Stanley (and maybe Duncan) and Hawk has already called it.
Next year, probably Blicavs and Rohan and maybe Danger (though he's such a competitive beast he'll want to play till he's 37).


Happy to hear what others think or if this should be in a different thread.

 

[Mattlock]

Gets a few bites from the main board cats supporters but no one here has even looked like taking the bait

I'll take the bait...

...he seems like a real jerk!

 

[catempire]

I'm serious, would take winning that game by 1 pt and run.

That dumpster fire of a football club will turn into the Harlem Globetrotters for 15 minutes in the third quarter and ruin what now looks like a red carpet ride to top 2.

It's what they do. Never win anything themselves, but ruin someone else's year at the opportune moment.

That’s more the 2023 Saints. They are just genuinely bad this year. Only 9 wins and 98%. Wins against 11th, 18th, 17th, 16th, 12th, 1st, 16th, 10th and 18th. Take out the Sydney anomaly and they are genuinely terrible. It would take a dreadful bed shit to lose to them.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Asked Swamp on Twitter:
“2024 Top 6 are all non Melbourne sides.
Has this happened before?”

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Asked Swamp on Twitter:
“2024 Top 6 are all non Melbourne sides.
Has this happened before?”

View attachment 2079829

Not sure if this is true?
Geelong
Bulldog
Hawks

Herald Sun

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

On SEN, they had Cats ranked as the best team in the comp the last 6 weeks from a defensive prospective. We're the hardest team to score against similar level to 2022.

The problem for us is scoring from turn overs. So when we force the opposition to turn the ball over, we aren't capitalizing on it enough, only scoring at about 3/4 goals a game. Which SEN don't believe will be good enough in say a prelim.

Obviously, we need to win the next 2 games and hopefully lock up games in Vic that'll give us the best chance at the flag. I'd be confident against any of the other contenders at the G except GWS and perhaps Doggies due to our recent game against them.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

On SEN, they had Cats ranked as the best team in the comp the last 6 weeks from a defensive prospective. We're the hardest team to score against similar level to 2022.

The problem for us is scoring from turn overs. So when we force the opposition to turn the ball over, we aren't capitalizing on it enough, only scoring at about 3/4 goals a game. Which SEN don't believe will be good enough in say a prelim.

Obviously, we need to win the next 2 games and hopefully lock up games in Vic that'll give us the best chance at the flag. I'd be confident against any of the other contenders at the G except GWS and perhaps Doggies due to our recent game against them.

Every single game we approach at the end of this season is a ‘MUST WIN’!

If + I mean ‘IF’ we improve our % will it help? ‘Why’? ‘How’?

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Every single game we approach at the end of this season is a ‘MUST WIN’!

If + I mean ‘IF’ we improve our % will it help? ‘Why’? ‘How’?

Yes it will help, but only if GWS and Port win both of their remaining games as well since they're both on the same wins and losses as we are.

I don't think they will win though as Port have Freo in the last round in WA and GWS have Doggies in Ballarat. Which they would both be undergos in.

But if they do win, then we need a big win probably against WCE so we can try get 2nd spot on % or we'll be going to Sydney first up which is bad for us as we've not won at the SCG for 5 years now.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Yes it will help, but only if GWS and Port win both of their remaining games as well since they're both on the same wins and losses as we are.

I don't think they will win though as Port have Freo in the last round in WA and GWS have Doggies in Ballarat. Which they would both be undergos in.

But if they do win, then we need a big win probably against WCE so we can try get 2nd spot on % or we'll be going to Sydney first up which is bad for us as we've not won at the SCG for 5 years now.

Wouldn’t it be better for us, if they lose?

Any chance they will lose?

 

[Mr Meow]

Wouldn’t it be better for us, if they lose?

Any chance they will lose?

He answered both of your questions - yes and yes.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Wouldn’t it be better for us, if they lose?

Any chance they will lose?

Yes, it's much better for us if they lose and we win both. It gives us 2nd spot and a home final in Vic which gives us the best chance at the flag.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

We are 5-4 against teams in that top 8

With thanks Hawthorn

 

[allrighty]

Not sure if this is true?
Geelong
Bulldog
Hawks

Herald Sun

View attachment 2079980

Crap treatment (again) if we finish second. It's indefensible

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Not sure if this is true?
Geelong
Bulldog
Hawks

Herald Sun

View attachment 2079980

As it stands, we'd get one home final. Either a semi or a prelim, being the only Vic side who's earned HFA.

Makes top 2 so critical for us. It's entirely possible we'd get 3 interstate sides on the MCG 3 weeks in a row if we're good enough to pull it off.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

We are 5-4 against teams in that top 8

With thanks Hawthorn

If that actually is the final positions I think the Lions would go in favourites.