Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Happy Daze]

I've got a few names for the 2018 draft Knightmare from current hotspot the Riverina, I'll PM you the details.

 

[Dunny82]

KM I remember a little while back you mentioning smalls may have a lower ceiling or close to their ceiling already due to having been fully grown whereas others may still have more potential. I can't quite remember the comment and haven't been able to find it in this thread but it was along those lines.

My question for you is whether you think McGrath's size means his upside is somewhat limited from here on. Granted his play this year has been great and I don't disagree with why he's so high up in your rankings from the few games I've watched this year. However, do you think that his scope for development is lower than others and could it be that it's more likely that he's overtaken by others in this draft class in time because of this?

 

[hicksyshawks]

Hey KM, would you be able to order your top 5 or 10 Small Defenders, TD, SF, TF and indicate whether you think each will get picked up or not?

 

[sr36]

My personal preference regarding rucks this year mirrors yours. I'd take a ruck late/rookie rather than early given both historically where the good rucks have come from - playing the percentages as well as not being super high on English relative to his projected draft position.

As a result, of the early pick ruck failures and the later pick ruck successes, I think too many clubs have become scared to draft ruckmen. There's a big shortage coming up. I actually think the reason for the low success rates of early choice ruckmen has historically been poor judgement of the attributes necessary to succeed in the role. Clubs were obsessed with the idea of a super mobile big guy with excellent skills, so time and again they recruited ruckmen sized blokes with these attributes, ignoring that they didn't have the strength and aggression necessary for the role. The early choice failures have been the result of a combination of this and injury. I think it's a mistake for clubs to look at this historical data and then just decide to not draft rucks early. They just need to recalibrate the attributes that they are looking for.

Similarly, but oppositely, I think clubs have recently paid too much for powerful mark and kick forwards. Contested marking beasts like Boyd, Patton and Mccartin have gone number 1, ignoring the onfield trend of congested forward lines limiting the influence of mark and kick forwards, and inside 50 mark and kick forwards beginning to struggle, unless they have a ground level game.

 

[adammania9]

Obviously never a gaurantee but for SPP
Does he have a go home factor?
Would the saints be mad to take him?
Sounds like were getting him or CCox
Id rather SPP but worried about go home factor.

You won't have to worry because most would suspect he'd be gone by then.

 

[shan76]

I keep hearing that Shai Bolton would be susceptible to the go home factor, is there any truth to this?

 

[ChrisRyanSaints]

You won't have to worry because most would suspect he'd be gone by then.

SPP? I thought he was a second rounder?

 

[Mighty_sainter]

What's the knock on josh Williams? 189 cm From the looks of it has speed to burn, run and carry kicks a running goal and has a elite short pass? I'm going off his highlight videos here so I'm wondering what the knock is, would he be a good fit at the saints at pick 36? Cheers

 

[adammania9]

SPP? I thought he was a second rounder?

I think the latest he would go is to Essendon in the 2nd round, otherwise I'm pretty certain Brisbane would pull the trigger. I have him going to West Coast in the first round.

 

[Knightmare]

Other then height what's the main knock on lachie Murphy?

Murphy is an advanced small. Issues aren't major. Can do some damage by foot. Is quick. Wins it inside. Probably could become more of a threat forward of centre, hit the scoreboard more and become more a genuine forward (to compliment his already good midfield play).

Has actually attracted some interest late for 2-3 clubs.

Obviously never a gaurantee but for SPP
Does he have a go home factor?
Would the saints be mad to take him?
Sounds like were getting him or CCox
Id rather SPP but worried about go home factor.

Saints are believed to be one of the clubs with strong interest in SPP. Not aware of any go-home factor.

Cox would make sense and fit well for the Saints. If still there when the Saints pick, he might be another the Saints look at.

 

[Knightmare]

KM I remember a little while back you mentioning smalls may have a lower ceiling or close to their ceiling already due to having been fully grown whereas others may still have more potential. I can't quite remember the comment and haven't been able to find it in this thread but it was along those lines.

My question for you is whether you think McGrath's size means his upside is somewhat limited from here on. Granted his play this year has been great and I don't disagree with why he's so high up in your rankings from the few games I've watched this year. However, do you think that his scope for development is lower than others and could it be that it's more likely that he's overtaken by others in this draft class in time because of this?

I stand by my comments on smalls generally having lower ceilings.

Generally at 18 they're among the most advanced but 2-3 years down the track at AFL level they tend to get past by, by those taller types who are still growing into their bodies.

With the smalls (sub 180cm types) my view is take them on who they are today. If they are AFL standard as they are now, take them. If not, pass.

Size may limit McGrath's upside somewhat. But given how advanced his game is and given his improvement over the course of the season (which to me suggests further improvement will come - as a variable that leaves some wiggle room within this rule). I think McGrath is a worthwhile bet with any of those top three picks, wherever he happens to land.

I probably don't have McGrath all things said and done being the best in the draft. Maybe a Setterfield, McCluggage or someone else may be. Drew if he gets midfield time? Who knows. McGrath looks exceptional in any case and a worthwhile top selection with those top overall choices rarely the best player in the draft anyway.

Hey KM, would you be able to order your top 5 or 10 Small Defenders, TD, SF, TF and indicate whether you think each will get picked up or not?

Small is ambiguous. I tend to class smalls as sub 180cm. Medium types 180+ of non key position types. And talls 192+ and must be of key position

I'll go with smalls and mediums for this, as small defenders (sub 180cm types) rarely make the grade with only those most exceptions - of which McGrath appears one, make it.

Is this to be my power rankings for general defenders or just general likelihood to be drafted?

For my general defence power rankings - just quickly whipped together (and I could easily add another 10. Very even group)

1. McGrath - probable top pick
2. Scrimshaw - may go top 10
3. Witherden - likely first rounder
4. Romensky - may go late/rookie
5. Berry - likely first rounder
6. L.Ryan - may go late first or second round
7. C.Cox - may go late first or second round
8. Dodge - won't be picked
9. Allison -mid-late draft
10. S.Walker - may go second or third round

I could list another roughly 10 who probably go in the natinoal draft by position, but will save that for my phantom draft later in the week.

As a result, of the early pick ruck failures and the later pick ruck successes, I think too many clubs have become scared to draft ruckmen. There's a big shortage coming up. I actually think the reason for the low success rates of early choice ruckmen has historically been poor judgement of the attributes necessary to succeed in the role. Clubs were obsessed with the idea of a super mobile big guy with excellent skills, so time and again they recruited ruckmen sized blokes with these attributes, ignoring that they didn't have the strength and aggression necessary for the role. The early choice failures have been the result of a combination of this and injury. I think it's a mistake for clubs to look at this historical data and then just decide to not draft rucks early. They just need to recalibrate the attributes that they are looking for.

Similarly, but oppositely, I think clubs have recently paid too much for powerful mark and kick forwards. Contested marking beasts like Boyd, Patton and Mccartin have gone number 1, ignoring the onfield trend of congested forward lines limiting the influence of mark and kick forwards, and inside 50 mark and kick forwards beginning to struggle, unless they have a ground level game.

I agree from an attribute perspective what is important. In those early draft rucks in looking back, it's those guys with that genuine power that are the good ones, as we're seeing with Grundy.

On the key forwards I think you've projected ahead accurately to how AFL clubs are now viewing key forwards, not rating those big marking key forwards as highly as they once did - with Tom Hawkins not spoken about as glowingly last season as he once was and Travis Cloke traded for peanuts.

In terms of a ruck shortage. I think the AFL will be fine. Particularly with all the international pathway types who will come through over coming years. Further to this you've got a constant generational growth that will see more and more ruckmen and extreme talls like we have never seen before, in time come through.

There could be better development of these ruckmen and ruck size types in junior programs to have them better prepaired for AFL play, with the process always such an extremely long one developmentally.

I keep hearing that Shai Bolton would be susceptible to the go home factor, is there any truth to this?

I'm not aware one way or the other of Bolton's preferences.

I can report that there are several Victorian clubs strongly considering Bolton if he makes it to their pick.

So he isn't necessarily staying in WA, and given where Freo and West Coast are selecting, I suspect he won't be staying in WA.

What's the knock on josh Williams? 189 cm From the looks of it has speed to burn, run and carry kicks a running goal and has a elite short pass? I'm going off his highlight videos here so I'm wondering what the knock is, would he be a good fit at the saints at pick 36? Cheers

Very thin. Allergic to winning the contested ball. Not a huge accumulator.

Can seriously run on the outside though and is a pretty good kick for the most part.

Someone will pay for him and a bid around 36 is probably around his range.

 

[Footytalk124]

Murphy is an advanced small. Issues aren't major. Can do some damage by foot. Is quick. Wins it inside. Probably could become more of a threat forward of centre, hit the scoreboard more and become more a genuine forward (to compliment his already good midfield play).

Has actually attracted some interest late for 2-3 clubs.



Saints are believed to be one of the clubs with strong interest in SPP. Not aware of any go-home factor.

Cox would make sense and fit well for the Saints. If still there when the Saints pick, he might be another the Saints look at.

Can you name 2-3 clubs?

 

[Mighty_sainter]

Very thin. Allergic to winning the contested ball. Not a huge accumulator.

Can seriously run on the outside though and is a pretty good kick for the most part.

Someone will pay for him and a bid around 36 is probably around his range.

Would Gold Coast match the bid if st kilda were to bid on him?

 

[Knightmare]

Can you name 2-3 clubs?

Carlton and Richmond are two clubs believed to have spoken to him and have some interest. Potentially late/rookie.

Would Gold Coast match the bid if st kilda were to bid on him?

I'd say likely GC match. But worth a bid, you never know.

 

[bomberland33]

Hi Knightmare

Could English do a Brodie grundy from 4 years ago and go from touted top 10 pick to dropping to a late first or fall to Essendon's pick 20?
Thanks

 

[InBontWeTrust]

Hi Knightmare

Could English do a Brodie grundy from 4 years ago and go from touted top 10 pick to dropping to a late first or fall to Essendon's pick 20?
Thanks

Supposedly the Dogs love him, even more than Marshall. He shouldn't slip to second round.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare

Could English do a Brodie grundy from 4 years ago and go from touted top 10 pick to dropping to a late first or fall to Essendon's pick 20?
Thanks

Views on where English land are split.

Some say top 10. Others are saying somewhere in the teens or even late teens.

English should go inside the top 20 as Grundy did, even at the lower end of his range.

 

[Knightmare]

Supposedly the Dogs love him, even more than Marshall. He shouldn't slip to second round.

Wouldn't surprise me with Beveridge liking more mobile ruckmen. Dropping Minson last year and this year using Roughead over Campbell the obvious example of this.

 

[InBontWeTrust]

Do you think the Dogs have any chance of taking Tom Stewart with our second pick?

 

[Knightmare]

Do you think the Dogs have any chance of taking Tom Stewart with our second pick?

I'm not expecting Stewart to feature that early, nor have I heard anything along those lines.

I currently have him going late in my phantom draft - to be released either late Thursday or Friday morning. So he's draftable. But as a late selection I have him going until I hear something on him.

 

[Greendogg]

Carlton and Richmond are two clubs believed to have spoken to him and have some interest. Potentially late/rookie.



I'd say likely GC match. But worth a bid, you never know.

GC won't match, don't have the list spots. Only way he ends up at the Suns is if he makes it through to the rookie draft, unlikely!

 

[Chaisa]

GC won't match, don't have the list spots. Only way he ends up at the Suns is if he makes it through to the rookie draft, unlikely!

https://www.draftguru.com.au/lists/2017 suggests you have six. 4 Top 10, one for Scheer, and presumably one for Williams.

EDIT: Though it missed the Joyce upgrade, so yeah you're right actually.

 

[Greendogg]

https://www.draftguru.com.au/lists/2017 suggests you have six. 4 Top 10, one for Scheer, and presumably one for Williams.

EDIT: Though it missed the Joyce upgrade, so yeah you're right actually.

Joyce is being upgraded, has already signed a two year deal... also, our list mgr has quoted we are taking 5 from the draft.. 3 top ten, plus Bowes and Scheer...

 

[hicksyshawks]

I stand by my comments on smalls generally having lower ceilings.

Generally at 18 they're among the most advanced but 2-3 years down the track at AFL level they tend to get past by, by those taller types who are still growing into their bodies.

With the smalls (sub 180cm types) my view is take them on who they are today. If they are AFL standard as they are now, take them. If not, pass.

Size may limit McGrath's upside somewhat. But given how advanced his game is and given his improvement over the course of the season (which to me suggests further improvement will come - as a variable that leaves some wiggle room within this rule). I think McGrath is a worthwhile bet with any of those top three picks, wherever he happens to land.

I probably don't have McGrath all things said and done being the best in the draft. Maybe a Setterfield, McCluggage or someone else may be. Drew if he gets midfield time? Who knows. McGrath looks exceptional in any case and a worthwhile top selection with those top overall choices rarely the best player in the draft anyway.



Small is ambiguous. I tend to class smalls as sub 180cm. Medium types 180+ of non key position types. And talls 192+ and must be of key position

I'll go with smalls and mediums for this, as small defenders (sub 180cm types) rarely make the grade with only those most exceptions - of which McGrath appears one, make it.

Is this to be my power rankings for general defenders or just general likelihood to be drafted?

For my general defence power rankings - just quickly whipped together (and I could easily add another 10. Very even group)

1. McGrath - probable top pick
2. Scrimshaw - may go top 10
3. Witherden - likely first rounder
4. Romensky - may go late/rookie
5. Berry - likely first rounder
6. L.Ryan - may go late first or second round
7. C.Cox - may go late first or second round
8. Dodge - won't be picked
9. Allison -mid-late draft
10. S.Walker - may go second or third round

I could list another roughly 10 who probably go in the natinoal draft by position, but will save that for my phantom draft later in the week.



I agree from an attribute perspective what is important. In those early draft rucks in looking back, it's those guys with that genuine power that are the good ones, as we're seeing with Grundy.

On the key forwards I think you've projected ahead accurately to how AFL clubs are now viewing key forwards, not rating those big marking key forwards as highly as they once did - with Tom Hawkins not spoken about as glowingly last season as he once was and Travis Cloke traded for peanuts.

In terms of a ruck shortage. I think the AFL will be fine. Particularly with all the international pathway types who will come through over coming years. Further to this you've got a constant generational growth that will see more and more ruckmen and extreme talls like we have never seen before, in time come through.

There could be better development of these ruckmen and ruck size types in junior programs to have them better prepaired for AFL play, with the process always such an extremely long one developmentally.



I'm not aware one way or the other of Bolton's preferences.

I can report that there are several Victorian clubs strongly considering Bolton if he makes it to their pick.

So he isn't necessarily staying in WA, and given where Freo and West Coast are selecting, I suspect he won't be staying in WA.



Very thin. Allergic to winning the contested ball. Not a huge accumulator.

Can seriously run on the outside though and is a pretty good kick for the most part.

Someone will pay for him and a bid around 36 is probably around his range.

Im asking for your personal rankings but cheers! Could you do the same for Medium Forwards and Small Forwards

 

[JayJ20]

KM, how valid are the comparisons between Will Setterfield and Bontempelli?


And who is your pick to be the best player of this draft?