Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[DexterTan]

KM. Having not read the thread, with the Dog's picks of 9 & 16, who are the likely picks?

 

[Resigned]

Knightmare who can you see the Tigers picking with their first pick assuming Naish isn't bidded on before 17?

 

[Balony_pony16]

Knight, watching cerra he seems to get closed down a fair bit in u18s and although he gets the ball away it is often rushed (is that a fair assessment?). Compare him to other players (dow in particular) who are always on the move, I wonder if cerra will struggle to adjust to the pace and pressure of afl. Is there a risk he becomes another James Aish?

 

[pulpdriver]

Knight, watching cerra he seems to get closed down a fair bit in u18s and although he gets the ball away it is often rushed (is that a fair assessment?). Compare him to other players (dow in particular) who are always on the move, I wonder if cerra will struggle to adjust to the pace and pressure of afl. Is there a risk he becomes another James Aish?

I'd say that risk is pretty minimal considering 53% of Cerra's u18 possessions are contested. He's nowhere near as outside as Aish was before being drafted.

 

[Supersuns]

KM Could you see Gold Coast going after Joel Garner?

 

[Balony_pony16]

I'd say that risk is pretty minimal considering 53% of Cerra's u18 possessions are contested. He's nowhere near as outside as Aish was before being drafted.

talking more how flat footed he looks at times...could be wrong

 

[Balony_pony16]

Knight... any chance for a quick fantasy keepers top 15?

 

[Wild Bill]

I think Cerra goes pick 4 to North.

Stephenson is the more likely to get through to the Saints, though Fremantle and Collingwood may consider, if North overlook.

I would be very happy with this. Stephenson's kicking worries me.

 

[Knightmare]

From what I have read, the pies have been linked to Coffield and Naughton.
Does the trading for Sam Murray, who plays a similar role to Coffield, indicate that they will take Naughton?

The fact that they discarded some KPPs in trade period without replacing them also seems to point in that direction, especially considering that Naughton has played senior footy and could possibly step up in 2018 at AFL level

Naughton makes the most sense for Collingwood. KPP (both ends) is the major need.

Collingwood might like Coffield, but probably won't spend pick 6 on him.

Hi KM,
Would it be possible for you to split your power rankings into where you see the talent divides as you did in 2015? You had your rankings split into Top 5 on list quality, top 10 on list quality, projected best 22 etc. I'd be interested to see how many fall into each group and where the gaps in talent are.

Based on my October Power Rankings

1. Cameron Rayner

2. Luke Davies-Uniacke

3. Adam Cerra

4. Paddy Dow
-----------------------
5. Noah Balta

6. Darcy Fogarty

7. Jaidyn Stephenson

8. Jack Higgins

9. Hunter Clark

10. Andrew Brayshaw

11. Nicholas Coffield

12. Lochie O’Brien
----------------------------
13. James Worpel

14. Brayden Crossley

15. Connor Ballenden

16. Harrison Petty

17. Aaron Naughton

18. Callum Coleman-Jones

19. Jarrod Brander

20. Oscar Allen

21. Charlie Ballard

22. Sam Hayes

23. Sam Taylor

24. Oscar Clavarino

25. Aiden Bonar
------------------------------
26. Gryan Miers

27. Cassidy Parish

28. Brent Daniels

29. Jordan Houlahan

30. Toby Wooller

Has there ever been a more subjective draft? Recruiting chops will be on show this year

Despite being a bit underwhelmed to begin the year with. I'm now curious to see how this goes on the day and in five years time

It's always highly subjective. Was last year, and is again this year.

I just don't follow the party line in my talent with my power rankings.
eg. Crossley I rate at 14 when he is projected to go late/rookie. Balta I have at 5 and he's more likely going 15-25. Parish who I rate at 27 probably goes undrafted.

Overall, I'm increasingly feeling like there is more than enough talent this year. The top 4 is exceptional. The kpp depth is strong overall, albeit without the standout early options. There is a wide range of good overagers and mature agers. And you'll still find some good draft age talents in the rookie draft in all likelihood, as clubs draft based on need and may find one or two good ones others don't rate as high.

 

[Knightmare]

any chance Coffield to the Saints @ 7?

Very well might be there, and if so, may be considered by Saints.

Any Neafl guys are chance to get taking in national draft or rookie draft?

Jordan Keras is a personal favourite. Had an exceptional year, but no guarantee as a mid who doesn't hit the scoreboard.

Otherwise, Oskar Baker is one who I expect will be picked at some stage as a genuine outside runner.

KM. Having not read the thread, with the Dog's picks of 9 & 16, who are the likely picks?

Bonar, D.Fogarty, Coffield, Balta, Higgins, Naughton, Clark and O'Brien are some I can see receiving consideration as some who could go in that rough range.

Knightmare who can you see the Tigers picking with their first pick assuming Naish isn't bidded on before 17?

Oscar Allen and Sam Hayes are two who Richmond have been connected to.

Knight, watching cerra he seems to get closed down a fair bit in u18s and although he gets the ball away it is often rushed (is that a fair assessment?). Compare him to other players (dow in particular) who are always on the move, I wonder if cerra will struggle to adjust to the pace and pressure of afl. Is there a risk he becomes another James Aish?

I haven't found Cerra to be rushed and have found quiet the opposite, that he is mostly composed and a really nice user. He's a high quantity contested ball winner and more a genuine midfielder, so I see no similarity to Aish who has been wrongly utilised by Collingwood and should have from the start been used as a back flanker, rather than a wing or forward flanker who struggles to find the footy. He's more a ball reader and intercepter who uses the ball neatly off half-back.

KM Could you see Gold Coast going after Joel Garner?

He'd be a consideration. Gold Coast made a concerted effort through the trade period to make moves for guys with good skills. Garner is a good ball user and may be among those considered as a back flanker.

Knight... any chance for a quick fantasy keepers top 15?

1. Cerra
2. Clark
3. Higgins
4. Rayner
5. LDU
6. Dow
7. A.Brayshaw
8. Stephenson
9. D.Fogarty
10. Coffield
-- goes down hill fast from here and really depends on if guys have AFL careers - eg. I could shift Parish up to 7, but he may go unselected so have gone with guys who will get chosen and may depending on team get games).
11. Worpel (may go in the 40s on draft day but a ready to go immediate mid)
12. Miers
13. Constable
14. L.Fogarty
15. Z.Bailey

 

[reggie]

Naughton makes the most sense for Collingwood. KPP (both ends) is the major need.

He's a Pies fan so he won't be unhappy with that at all

 

[remfan101]

What are your thoughts on Kane Farrell's strengths/weaknesses/ draft range mate? He has some seriously impressive highlights and combine results.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Any thoughts on Angus Schumacher? He has a great kick on him, confirmed by his draft combine results. Whereabouts do you think he'll be picked up?

 

[Sleezy]

KM Could you see Gold Coast going after Joel Garner?

Oi, that's my avatar!

 

[Knifey Spoony]

Hey KM, first off, I'm a big fan of your work. I know its incredibly subjective due to how West Coast go and how the 2018 draft pans out across next year, but what are your thoughts on West Coasts trade with Gold Coast that involved next years first rounder? Is the talent in the second round this year worth the downgrade, and is next years draft more noticeable for its high end talent or the depth of the pool? Thanks in advance

 

[illegaleagle]

Hi knightmare just watched tac cup grand final and was impressed by grien miers, do you think he looks like a Dahlhaus type of small forward who can play a bit of mid. He looks like a good small forward prospect to me who is quite short but fast, can lay a tackle and kick a goal exactly in the style of richmonds small forwards this year.

 

[Knightmare]

What are your thoughts on Kane Farrell's strengths/weaknesses/ draft range mate? He has some seriously impressive highlights and combine results.

Farrell - quick, athletic, long but often damaging left foot kick, reads the flight well and can take intercept marks and some athletic marks. can sometimes win the contested ball when he chooses to. often undisciplined - either trying to do too much, lazy tackling. needs to find more of the ball. overall a good talent and untapped.

Could go around the third round. Looks draftable.

Any thoughts on Angus Schumacher? He has a great kick on him, confirmed by his draft combine results. Whereabouts do you think he'll be picked up?

Capable ball winning midfielder who does the hard stuff well. Otherwise, there are others who stand out more/have more tricks. Late draft chance.

 

[Tjblues]

Hey KM, long time listener first time caller, 2 questions.
Firstly how much do you think the "go home factor" really affects clubs thinking with regards to picking prospects? Asking as I've heard from numerous kids who have been in the system with Rayner say that he's not at all excited about the prospect of moving interstate.
Secondly what do you think of Mitch Podhajski from Calder and do you see him finding a home somewhere?
Thanks for all your work throughout the year

 

[CROWS84]

Knightmare do you think Fogarty will still be available at Adelaide’s pick 12 and if so would you take him if you were in the recruiters shoes? Or would a Hunter Clark be a better pick potentially?
Cheers.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, first off, I'm a big fan of your work. I know its incredibly subjective due to how West Coast go and how the 2018 draft pans out across next year, but what are your thoughts on West Coasts trade with Gold Coast that involved next years first rounder? Is the talent in the second round this year worth the downgrade, and is next years draft more noticeable for its high end talent or the depth of the pool? Thanks in advance

There are some who hate the deal. I don't hate the deal, but it all does come down to how well WCE go in 2018. I guess I hold too much faith in the ability of Nic Naitanui to be a difference maker to think that WCE will be terrible in 2018. If I didn't respect Nic Nat as much as I do, I'd be much more down on the deal than I am.

Assuming WCE don't finish bottom 4, the deal is fine, if finish 9th or better, it's probably a win, to give a rough feel for where I value the picks, with the top 3/4 looking incredible next year.

Overall WCE just need to regenerate and get in more young talent.

The method is unusual, but there is enough second round talent where with good talent ID, WCE can find some worthwhile players and start the list regeneration.

I don't hate downgrading as a concept and feel it's probably not used as much as it could be.

With the draft being essentially a lottery, it's about understanding the percent chance that the pick will work out.

For now, I'll be a fence sitter and say WCE broke even in the trade, and aren't as stupid as many are suggesting, predicting WCE finish better than 15th, and somewhere inbetween 9-14. It's just not a risk I would be prepaired to take personally.

Hi knightmare just watched tac cup grand final and was impressed by grien miers, do you think he looks like a Dahlhaus type of small forward who can play a bit of mid. He looks like a good small forward prospect to me who is quite short but fast, can lay a tackle and kick a goal exactly in the style of richmonds small forwards this year.

Their hair at the same stage, and their games are very similar.

Miers just works and works, but also gets to the right spots, so it feels like he's always involved and impacting the game in some lively way, just as Dahlhaus does at AFL level. His kicking and finishing could be better, but no one is perfect, and he'll make up for it with the sheer number of times he gets around the ball in the front half.

He's a good small forward prospect and 2nd/3rd round is worth picking.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, long time listener first time caller, 2 questions.
Firstly how much do you think the "go home factor" really affects clubs thinking with regards to picking prospects? Asking as I've heard from numerous kids who have been in the system with Rayner say that he's not at all excited about the prospect of moving interstate.
Secondly what do you think of Mitch Podhajski from Calder and do you see him finding a home somewhere?
Thanks for all your work throughout the year

1. Some clubs look at it more than others. Brisbane given their recent experiences would be one who would do their research more than most on this. Others are more relaxed with it. Overall, it's a mild factor, and if a kid says, I don't want to move interstate/want to stay home. Most clubs probably will stay away I'd imagine. Otherwise, most clubs would take the chance and take the guy they like, that fills their need and is top of their draft board. On Rayner, he has stated he's happy to move interstate (or has publicly stated) so until there is strong noise he won't, I'll take him for his word.

2. Podhajski as a tall athletic defender is a late draft/rookie draft chance. Not a certain draft choice but in the mix.

Knightmare do you think Fogarty will still be available at Adelaide’s pick 12 and if so would you take him if you were in the recruiters shoes? Or would a Hunter Clark be a better pick potentially?
Cheers.

Darcy Fogarty may be available, but isn't a certainty. A few clubs will at least consider before Adelaide's choice.

Hunter Clark is a safe choice and really has the production behind him. I think he'll go somewhere around pick 10-15 so he is right in that range.

I'd lean towards Fogarty of the two. While he had a poor season, he showed in 2016 he can be a real impact player, and he has the scope to be maybe something like a Jake Stringer at AFL level which is intriguing, as something of a tall but powerful utility who can turn games at his best.

 

[Dunny82]

1. Cerra
2. Clark
3. Higgins
4. Rayner
5. LDU
6. Dow
7. A.Brayshaw
8. Stephenson
9. D.Fogarty
10. Coffield
-- goes down hill fast from here and really depends on if guys have AFL careers - eg. I could shift Parish up to 7, but he may go unselected so have gone with guys who will get chosen and may depending on team get games).
11. Worpel (may go in the 40s on draft day but a ready to go immediate mid)
12. Miers
13. Constable
14. L.Fogarty
15. Z.Bailey

Hi km, how much would your rankings change with regards to supercoach?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi km, how much would your rankings change with regards to supercoach?

Rayner/LDU/Dow up and above Clark/Higgins.

Fogarty ahead of Stephenson.

--
After 10 it's another case of ask me again when the draft is over, as there may/may not get drafted who can really score, or on particular teams may have greater game and scoring chances than on other teams based on potential for opportunity.

I'll have stronger views then. The above is just a quick, 1 minute quick feel job.

 

[archiemoses]

Just wanted to say thanks KM to the effort you put in to responding to our questions. Always a good read.

 

[CROWS84]

Yeah cheers Knightmare quality as always mate.