- Aug 31, 2014
- 15,439
- 28,150
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
God, can people stfu. It’s literally an OPINION. How are people pressed by that???
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God, can people stfu about people that have a problem with people giving an opinion. It’s literally an OPINION. How are people pressed by that?God, can people stfu. It’s literally an OPINION. How are people pressed by that???
God, can people stfu. It’s literally an OPINION. How are people pressed by that???
Yep, as a Melbourne supporter we well know.
If Knightmare would occasionally say, "Yep, I got it wrong", then you wouldn't hear another peep out of me.
But that's not in the kit bag.
Knightmare, firstly thank you for providing a terrific service and valuable insight into these players and your thoughts. That said, there does appear to be things you say that make me think you are making things up on the fly and winging it a bit.
Example: there was an article after the draft about who you would have picked if you were the list manager of each club. If you were Fremantle you would not have picked a key forward at pick 8, and would have tried to address the key forward needs later in the draft.
Today you have awarded freo An A+ for drafting.
I can only interpret this as giving an A+ to a team that completely ignored what you would have done in the draft.
The other thing is, I think you will be more respected in here if you occasionally just admit you were wrong rather than go through explanation A,B,C,D etc why you might not actually be wrong.
Knightmare, given the subjectivity of the ranking process, perhaps you could consider switching your grading framework from an A+ to F system, which suggests more objectivity than it is.
Maybe something of a pricing framework ($ to $$$$) or 'value relative to power rankings' with an 'overvalued, fair value, undervalued'
I feel the 'grade' ranking distracts from the analysis
Is there anything more pointless than grading a draft the day after it takes place?
This goes for all draft experts who do this not just KM, these club draft haul ratings are about a useful as **** on a bull
With Gold Coast, it's not that they can't sometimes develop talent. Tom Lynch was a success. Steven May developed well. Dion Prestia and Touk Miller became good midfielders with the Suns.
The problem for the Suns is, acutely being aware not only of how I projected the players, but also how others evaluated these players. They haven't succeeded in developing their own talent broadly speaking. David Swallow, Jaeger O'Meara and Jack Martin are three we should be talking about as top-10 midfielders in the competition. To talk about any of them in that context today and you'll be looked at like you're not being serious. Lukosius for the Suns hasn't developed meaningfully and he should be tracking at a similar pace to a Nick Riewoldt. Izak Rankine is another who where he should be around that early career Wingard level as that kind of talent, and he's not even playing all that well. Sam Day should have been great, but he's not someone I'd want as part of my best-22 and never even got to that modest level. We saw it with Gold Coast's prelisted players, having talent there, but not getting Maverick Weller, Luke Russell or anyone to even a long term best-22 standard. They should be top-10 on list at worst standard guys based on junior projections. Would Buddy or Dusty have become great had they been drafted by the Suns? Maybe, but if so, likely not historically great.
My comment on Sparrow is that as per my previous comment, he's not a spud. He's AFL calibre. But if you asked me Johnson or Sparrow to go forward with. I'm taking Johnson. Sparrow might be able to get to a top-15 on list standard is my guestimate at his peak. If he does better, that's credit to Melbourne's development. All things being equal, same team, same environment, I'd expect by season three that Johnson would be favoured for a more prominent midfield role than would Sparrow, as someone I feel could be more like a top-10 on list standard player, with his upside nearing that top-5 on list mark if things go really right.
That's why I love the draft. So many different opinions but its so important.The dees have botched more first rounders than most clubs can dream of but sometimes I just think a good player becomes a good player regardless. Like Oliver came in and was a gun for literally round 1. Gawn became an all-time great despite playing in an era of one of the worst losing cultures in melbourne's history. Salem was a gun from day 1 despite being at a bottom 4 club. Same as Viney. I think the development argument is accentuated more for the middle tier to fringe players.
And even though Jackson, Pickett, and Rivers came in at the perfect time as you said, we only finished 17th and 9th the last 2 seasons so they haven't been a part of a successful club until this year. People forget that we were pretty poor the last 2 years.
And with sparrow I think he's already top 15 on AFL list standard right now. For Melbourne he's probably around 20. but for most teams especially bottom 9 teams then he'd sit top 15. If we look at pies, I have Sparrow at number 13. Behind pendles, Sidebottom, degoey, howe, Maynard, Elliott, grundy, mihocek, Moore, crisp, adams, noble but ahead of Quaynor, Bianco,Josh Daicos, Poulter, Hoskin-Elliott, Sier etc.
Honestly thought Richmond had the best draft haul.Wow a D+ for Richmond.
I get the rationale though.
Thought we did a bit better than a D+ all the same.
Mate what are you smoking if you think Jackson is the most valuable commodity in the AFL.
Too early to ask when you’ll start talking more about the 2022 draft Knightmare?
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They might want brown on a wing
Ah fair enough but I think your post highlights why Melb. did the right thing. You can pick another first rounder who in a couple of years may or may not be better than what they have now (21-year-old Sparrow) or you go the best available tall van Rooyen with a view to replacing four 30 years olds (Brown , TMac, May and M. Brown).My thoughts on all teams will be in my
Fair call re. Melbourne's approach with mids (and it's one I mostly agree with as I'm firmly of the view with midfielders that contested ball winning is what correlates to the greatest degree with translating to AFL play and more broadly success by position). Johnson to look at his game, as he gets stronger, he should develop the contested side to his game further as with a Pendlebury/Mundy. I don't see why Johnson wouldn't get games ahead of Sparrow with a few years of development behind him if he had have been drafted by the Dees. That's not to say Sparrow is by any stretch of the imagination inept, he played some good footy in the later part of the year where he is a worthwhile component to the best-22, but I'm not as I'd say of Johnson see him being as likely to in the future be a top-10 on list calibre piece.
Have a piece coming with a top-10 for next year.
Could be up as early as Monday.
Ah fair enough but I think your post highlights why Melb. did the right thing. You can pick another first rounder who in a couple of years may or may not be better than what they have now (21-year-old Sparrow) or you go the best available tall van Rooyen with a view to replacing four 30 years olds (Brown , TMac, May and M. Brown).
Awesome mate
Is the news about Condon choosing basketball 100% true and confirmed?
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Honestly thought Richmond had the best draft haul.
It was over in the second round so we don’t have to hear about all the late pick steals like from the piesFrom a opposition supporter what did you like about it.
Ultimately, there is nothing really wrong with Van Rooyen where he was picked. I rated him a few spots lower, but not a lot lower, and he's an obvious need filler for the long term list build.
I wouldn't draft him as a key forward, but as a key defender I like his game. I personally would have gone cheaper with Schlensog/Dean available later, particularly with Schlensog always sure to be there.
As a key forward, Van Rooyen could be another Weideman equivalent level player once developed, so I'd be looking for other opportunities next offseason if needing a key forward for depth reasons, or if wanting that option this offseason, a Tyler Keitel or Matthew Hammelmann as a rookie I would have been comfortable drafting and for immediate performance you'd be getting a lot better with their upsides in my view pretty similar.
Condon chose an AIS Basketball Scholarship and made the decision earlier in the month that he'll chase his basketball dreams instead.
Condon won't be the first or last to chose basketball over footy. We'll get more of that over coming seasons.
I guess this is the crux of the problem. It is your opinion that Alleer will be the better defender. The recruiters disagreed with you and it wasn't just the Richmond recruiters. Considering Alleer's disposal is arguably worse than Gibcus's and they are both great aerialists, I'm not sure how or why you think that he'll end up the better defender long term. You also have to factor in that all else being equal, Josh is 20 months younger than Leek and that's a big difference at that age. In the end though it's just an opinion.Leek Alleer was my top rated key defender this year.
A happy accident and quirky coincidence, but Alleer I rated as the 9th best in the draft and Gibcus the 15th best, yet Gibcus features at 9 and Alleer at 15.
I thought freo won it.Honestly thought Richmond had the best draft haul.
I don't understand why people get their panties in a twist over these draft projections. Basically all of the information we have about the players which have just been drafted comes from analysts like KM, and I for one appreciate it when they're candid about the potential downsides of draftees instead of living inside the happy rainbow kingdom of "wow, such potential " that most fans like to dwell in at this time of the year. Of course it's not an exact science, and of course there are going to be inaccuracies when you're projecting the career trajectories of 18 year old boys some 5+ years into the future. But I find that in most cases, irrespective of how successful the players end up becoming, the assessments of their potential strengths and weaknesses are typically pretty accurate (a draft watcher in 2001 would have been perfectly warranted in criticising Chris Judd for his iffy disposal by foot, for example, regardless of how many premierships and Brownlow medals Judd ended up winning), and that's why I always take the time to read what draft-watchers like KM have to say about these kids.
In the case of Melbourne's draft haul from 2019, for example, plainly it turned out well for Melbourne, but I don't think that discredits the assessments made about the draft at the time. Jackson was considered by many (including by many Melbourne supporters) to be something of a reach at pick 3, especially given the expectation that he'd have to play second fiddle to Gawn for the first half a decade of his career. Athletic big men are rare and valuable gems, but the failure rate for ruckmen taken in the first round is probably higher than for any other position. Regardless of how it turned out, it was completely fair to say at the time that the Jackson selection was a large, and perhaps unnecessary risk.
As for Pickett, again it turned out well, but posing questions over his productivity at the time of his drafting were entirely warranted (even at this stage of his career, if you had to pick a weakness it would probably be his ability to consistently find the ball), as were pointing out the risks of taking a small forward with a top-10 pick. Coming back two years later and gloating about how silly it was to give Melbourne a C-rating for that draft is to overlook that what KM had to say at the time had (and still has) a lot of merit, so long as you don't interpret it as an exact prognostication of how that player's career will pan out. As for this draft, I think it's completely fair to say that there are risks in Melbourne picking a KPF for need rather than what might more objectively be the safer, "best available" player (particularly since the late first-round tends to be something of a nowhere-land for KPFs - difficult to think of too many success stories taken in the 11-20 range), and that's going to remain true even if Jacob Van Rooyen becomes a 300-game player for us. I think those of you complaining about KMs assessments of your team's drafting should adopt a similar attitude.
Broadbent now currently the number 1 pure ruck in 2022 draft pool?
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I guess this is the crux of the problem. It is your opinion that Alleer will be the better defender. The recruiters disagreed with you and it wasn't just the Richmond recruiters. Considering Alleer's disposal is arguably worse than Gibcus's and they are both great aerialists, I'm not sure how or why you think that he'll end up the better defender long term. You also have to factor in that all else being equal, Josh is 20 months younger than Leek and that's a big difference at that age.
Three possibilities:If I can make a suggestion for next year, I would change how you do the strengths and weaknesses. It'd be a lot more concise if you just wrote it in a couple of sentences or little paragraphs. The way it is now is quite wordy and confusing. Just taking Leek Alleer as an example, you have listed as strengths...
Reading of the ball in flight
Intercept marking
Contested marking
Aerial marking
Wins one-on-one contests routinely and often turns one-on-one contests into intercept marks
Attack on the ball aerially
This is all essentially the same thing. He's good overhead.
While I'm on the topic of Alleer, I'd question the weaknesses you have listed. One dimensional? There are essentially 3 'dimensions' for tall defenders - lockdown, intercept and rebound. He's shown he can do two of them. And you have 'capacity to lock down tall, medium and small forwards' - anyone who can play on all 3 forward types can't be one dimensional.
Then there's Angus Sheldrick, who has 15 positives - the majority of which can essentially be summarised by the word 'strong'. Meanwhile he has just 2 weaknesses, which happen to be two of the most important things teams look for in midfielders. Foot skills and decision making. I'm not critiquing your placement of him in the list, just 15 strengths versus 2 weaknesses gives a skewed view of him as a prospect. Less weaknesses than the #1 player.
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