Official NAB 2010 Draft Rumors/Predictions/Preferences...

[Mismatched]

My mate in melb keeps telling me we are heavily being linked to Jacobs.
If you want someone with a brilliant pick eg Pitt or Jacobs you may not get someone who physically is developed or has issues with his defensive game.
No player is perfect in this draft except swallow.
Simith has everything except an iffy kick.
My question is would you prefer someone with an iffy kick but everything else is great. or somone like Jacobs/Pitt with a brilliant kick but defensive action/competive nature is no where near smith?

Jacobs is definitely one that wouldn't surprise me if we picked up with 14.

I'll preface this by saying I'm no expert and this is purely an opinion formed from the odd "youtube" clip and from what I have read from trusted BF posters, but I think there's a lot of Simon Goodwin about him. Similar height and body size, strong grab, long and powerful left foot, but not quite as damaging with it as say a Luke Hodge, also knows how to find the footy and is quite a physical player too. Whether he'll be as good is a completely different kettle of fish though. His decision making is probably the one thing that concerns me a little, seems to rush his disposal under pressure and doesn't seem to use his long kicking enough. He seems quite happy to chip short, where a player like him should perhaps try to hurt the opposition a little more with his disposal.

The one I wouldn't discount, if he falls to 14, is Jack Darling, not so much as a key forward, but as a bigger bodied midfield enforcer in the mold of your Matthew Pavlich or even Mark Ricciuto. Unlikely to reach us as I think the GC or even WC might take him, however if he does fall a bit, I think we may seriously consider.

I'd might also add, the fact that GC have so many early picks may mean that #14 will get us the kind of player we'd usually get much earlier. I can't remember what its called (maybe cmndstab can help out) but in game theory and economics if there are a number of parties vying for a share in the market on an even ground, typically the goods will be distributed or utilised efficiently. In draft terms this means that that if every team has an equal share of the draft picks (ie, an untampered draft) there will be a very good correlation between the value of a player and the place in the draft where they were taken. However, if one party has a disproportionate share of access (ie a lot of early draft picks, particularly if they are close together) they will not use them as efficiently as a number of parties would. In lay man's terms its much easier for a number of independent heads working together to work out the true value of players than it is for one. For example, if Rendell had the GC's picks in 2007 we would have ended up with:

1. Kreuzer
2. Cotchin
3. Dangerfield
7. Henderson
9. Ebert
10. S.Selwood
11. Rance
13. Lobbe

An unmitigated disaster imo in relation to the opportunities, instead of the genius of picking up Danger at #10. And if we hadn't traded #5 Myers would have been taken there. Another example is Port taking Moore last year at #9, right after Butcher at #8. Whilst I personally would have taken Moore at #9 without batting an eye, most wouldn't and Port may have reasonably expected Moore to slide right through to #16 in other circumstances. GC trading into future drafts has been a very smart move in this sense imo.

So, I think #14 this year will end up being a little bit better than #14 in most years.

Great post, I've been thinking the same. With that many picks in the top 13, Gold Coast can afford to be a bit choosy and perhaps have a bit more of an eye towards needs than just best available, especially with their later picks. I think there's a very good chance that we'll pick up a player which Rendell rates between 6 and 8 on his list. Whilst the top 5 seem pretty well set, the next 15-20 picks appear very much up in the air. Despite its being compromised, this still sounds like a very strong draft and I think we might end up with a very good player at 14.

 

[Chris Crouch]

I can't remember what its called (maybe cmndstab can help out) but in game theory and economics if there are a number of parties vying for a share in the market on an even ground, typically the goods will be distributed or utilised efficiently.

the Coase Theorem?

Back to MR's statement:

If GC can accurately predict our valuation of the players in the draft, they can manipulate the game to their advantage.

So basically GC are trying to second-guess everyone, letting players slide until later on the draft on the expectation that the teams with the intermediate picks will pass on them. So I interpret MR's statement as "don't try to let a tall slide past us - we may well take them", trying to psych-out GC's draft optimisation.

 

[Mismatched]

the Coase Theorem?

Back to MR's statement:

If GC can accurately predict our valuation of the players in the draft, they can manipulate the game to their advantage.

So basically GC are trying to second-guess everyone, letting players slide until later on the draft on the expectation that the teams with the intermediate picks will pass on them. So I interpret MR's statement as "don't try to let a tall slide past us - we may well take them", trying to psych-out GC's draft optimisation.

GC's next pick after 13 is pick 39, so I'd say we're pretty irrelevant to their drafting plans. They'll likely play such games with Essendon and Melbourne as they split GC's picks 7 and 9 (Essendon) and 11 and 13 (Melbourne). No point playing games with us.

 

[KUNG FU]

the Coase Theorem?

Yeah Coase is relevant, but not quite what I was thinking. Particularly in relation to the trade period. For example the infamous Cameron Wood trade (oft brought up by any club's fans looking to obtain an exorbitant draft pick for their second string ruckman). Hine was reportedly expecting to pick up John McCarthy for #14. However, he was also certain that Collingwood would be able to pick him with #29, so #14 was ultimately equivalent #29 to Hine. However, Brisbane saw #14 as being able to obtain Travis Johnstone and therefore were able to extract more value out of it.

 

[FAITH]

Interesting to hear Seb Tape is right in contention at pick 14.
Strong interest from Geelong at 15 as well.
Interesting apparently off the field in terms of prep/leadership etc is as good as it gets, on the field improved dramatically last couple of months of the season where now he could potentially be attacking midf in the polec mold with a great defensive game and beautiful kick.

Pitt apparently certainty to go 13 to GC. Dissapointing he is gun.

 

[Bockchoy67]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Tape even go top 10.

 

[FAITH]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Tape even go top 10.

Has anyone seen him play consistently this season?
Has he been more impressing than McCarthy?

 

[Vantz]

The one I wouldn't discount, if he falls to 14, is Jack Darling, not so much as a key forward, but as a bigger bodied midfield enforcer in the mold of your Matthew Pavlich or even Mark Ricciuto. Unlikely to reach us as I think the GC or even WC might take him, however if he does fall a bit, I think we may seriously consider.

He may have similar body shape but in no way is he anything like either Pavlich or Roo skill wise. Darling was a big kid who dominated underage football however at senior level I don't think he has much development and would likely fall between 17-27.

Seb Tape is an interesting one. He developed this season into a good reader of play and has decent disposal. I would not be surprised if we took any of Isaac Smith, Josh Caddy, Sep Tape, Luke Parker or Brodie Smith.

 

[XztatiK]

Has anyone seen him play consistently this season?
Has he been more impressing than McCarthy?

4-5 times. I'd rate McCarthy a lot higher but I think McCarthy will be a gun. Tape was impressive in a few games but I'd much rather have a real midfielder than one we hope to turn into one, with all else even.

I hope he does go top 10 because that may just push Atley/Caddy/Pitt out to us Sad to hear GC want Pitt at 13.

 

[Chief Crow]

One player I think we should seriously look at if available at 14 is Jed Lamb. He could fill that small forward roll for us in the 1st few years while developing his tank to move into the midfield.

He is a freak around goals and he combined with Tex inside the forward 50 would cause havoc for opposition defenders as they are both natrual goal kickers.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/the-next-stevie-johnson/story-e6freck3-1225952941458

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/102228/default.aspx

This boy is who I want at pick 14

 

[thed]

from my extensive research ( youtube and reading the paper) we need Jed Lamb.... please let him be there at pick 14.

Next preference is Smedts, then Tape. Not sold on Brodie Smith, funny kicking action.

 

[big78sam]

One player I think we should seriously look at if available at 14 is Jed Lamb. He could fill that small forward roll for us in the 1st few years while developing his tank to move into the midfield.

He is a freak around goals and he combined with Tex inside the forward 50 would cause havoc for opposition defenders as they are both natrual goal kickers.

But is this what we really need? We have Tipett, walker, knights, porps, etc up forward plus players like danger rotating through, surely a gun midfielder is what we really need. Unless an out and out star is available at 14 I hope we go for a midfielder. Sure a small forward is nice but it's midfielders that win you flags. I agree with XztatiK, let's actually pick a midfielder, not someone we think might turn into one.

 

[Chief Crow]

But is this what we really need? We have Tipett, walker, knights, porps, etc up forward plus players like danger rotating through, surely a gun midfielder is what we really need. Unless an out and out star is available at 14 I hope we go for a midfielder. Sure a small forward is nice but it's midfielders that win you flags. I agree with XztatiK, let's actually pick a midfielder, not someone we think might turn into one.

He is a player we need bad. Our forward line is good with talls and flankers. We need a guy who can read the ball well (particually from packs)and kick goals from anywhere. Yes getting the ball into the froward line is all good and well but if they only kick points, it comes back to bite us on the ass. Lamb kicks goals and I think he could move into the midfield in the future.

 

[XztatiK]

But is this what we really need? We have Tipett, walker, knights, porps, etc up forward plus players like danger rotating through, surely a gun midfielder is what we really need. Unless an out and out star is available at 14 I hope we go for a midfielder. Sure a small forward is nice but it's midfielders that win you flags. I agree with XztatiK, let's actually pick a midfielder, not someone we think might turn into one.

I think Lamb is more of a pure small forward than anyone on our list. I'd love him at 14 (and he's pretty much guaranteed to be there).

I see what you're saying, but with Tape, we'd really be drafting him soley on the hope that we can turn him into a midfielder. with Lamb, we're drafting him as a gun small-forward who can step into a pocket straight away and also looks to have the tools to move into the midfield in the long run (and that's far less of a stretch than turning Tape into a mid IMO).

 

[BACCS]

I think Lamb is more of a pure small forward than anyone on our list. I'd love him at 14 (and he's pretty much guaranteed to be there).

I see what you're saying, but with Tape, we'd really be drafting him soley on the hope that we can turn him into a midfielder. with Lamb, we're drafting him as a gun small-forward who can step into a pocket straight away and also looks to have the tools to move into the midfield in the long run (and that's far less of a stretch than turning Tape into a mid IMO).

I still am struggling to figure out where this move to the midfield for Sebby has come from, I can't see it happening. He is best as a backman who can swing foward.

 

[Vantz]

I still am struggling to figure out where this move to the midfield for Sebby has come from, I can't see it happening. He is best as a backman who can swing foward.

I agree BACCS, I dont get where this push has come from. From the few games I have seen him play he seems like a fantastic defender who reads the play very well. Sometimes the BigFooty YouTube experts see something those who go and watch games must not be seeing.

 

[WALL-e]

I see Seb's best position as that 3rd tall/loose man in D, but I can definately see midfield traits in his game.

 

[Mego Red]

Great midfield depth in this draft.

For me, it's Pitt, Caddy, Smedts, either Smith or Lamb. I'm starting to like the sound of either Pitt or Isaac Smith, just because they sound like great outside runners with a bit of x-factor.

 

[Hodgy]

Am a bit depressed this morning after watching F1 qualifying last night so thought I would put my 2 cents worth in for our picks in this years draft. I obviously haven't seen as much of most of them as some of the guys on here, only highlights packages and what I saw of the championships, but for what it's worth these are my impressions.

Dont want:
Smith - Gets it a lot but doesn't seem to have elite pace off the mark and his kick worries me and I felt he has never been closely tagged and might struggle if he isn't left on his own. Reminds me of Ebert going into the 08 draft, safe pick but not going to take your club to the next level.
Smedts - Just doesn't excite me and think he lacks elite pace and has developed the Tyson Edwards habbit of doubling back a lot to make up for it. This must cause life for the forward to be so difficult and play into zoning teams hands.
Prestia - Not so much that I don't rate him, as he ticks nearly all the boxes and has great strength through the hips in breaking tackles but just that his height makes him a risk that I don't think we can afford and don't need to take.

Want but won't get:
Josh Caddy - Just an inside clearance machine with great pace and that self confidence to back himself and take off straight towards goal that you could see with Dabgerfield on his early highlights. Would make our midfield balance start to look elite.
Gaff - Fast, fit, predominantly outside player that uses the ball really well and will only improve. Like Caddy would fit into our midfield beautifully.

Hope we get:
Pitt - Just looks a jet to me. Fast, great skills that will only get better, uses it well, kicks goals, tackles well and seems very team oriented and unselfish. Fairly slight at the moment but has the frame to fill out. Only concern is if he gets it enough.
Atley - Good allround midfielder. good pace without being lightning, backs himself, seems to tackle well, has a good size and awareness. Might be a slight question on his kicking and how much he hurts the opposition going forward but I would be happy to hear his name.
Would also be happy with Jacobs or Aaron Young
Special mention to Jed Lamb and Harper. Both look like brilliant prospects to me that will enhance two clubs forward lines for years, but we just need so much to add a genuine A grade midfielder to our list that I don't think they would be the right choice unless they have midfield potential in the future.

Hopes for pick 61:
Milera - I know that he is small, but that won't matter if no one can lay a glove on him. Just has so many positives and potential that you would have to grab him if he is available. Unfortunately don't think he will be there but fingers crossed. Not sure about his tackling pressure which would be vital in the role that we would use him in but his technique looks sound and just has that natural talent for evasion and goal sense.
Horlin-Smith - Can mark and kick both sides and finds space and is obviously a potentially elite athlete but like most people I haven't seen much of him. Got to worry about his skills, especially his kicking from the highlights that I have seen, but with the hype around him he must have some great potential. His silky movement over the ground reminds me a lot of a young Peter Motley (not in his skills, just something in how he moves) which might be influencing me but would be happy to take a chance on him.

Roll on the 18th.

 

[BACCS]

I agree BACCS, I dont get where this push has come from. From the few games I have seen him play he seems like a fantastic defender who reads the play very well. Sometimes the BigFooty YouTube experts see something those who go and watch games must not be seeing.

Add to the fact he has never played there in his life, not even during high school. I've seen a lot more of him than anyone on here ever will, so just trust me! Under the AFL system, you never know what might happen, but it is a long shot not even worth worrying about.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

Am a bit depressed this morning after watching F1 qualifying last night so thought I would put my 2 cents worth in for our picks in this years draft. I obviously haven't seen as much of most of them as some of the guys on here, only highlights packages and what I saw of the championships, but for what it's worth these are my impressions.

Dont want:
Smith - Gets it a lot but doesn't seem to have elite pace off the mark and his kick worries me and I felt he has never been closely tagged and might struggle if he isn't left on his own. Reminds me of Ebert going into the 08 draft, safe pick but not going to take your club to the next level.
Smedts - Just doesn't excite me and think he lacks elite pace and has developed the Tyson Edwards habbit of doubling back a lot to make up for it. This must cause life for the forward to be so difficult and play into zoning teams hands.
Prestia - Not so much that I don't rate him, as he ticks nearly all the boxes and has great strength through the hips in breaking tackles but just that his height makes him a risk that I don't think we can afford and don't need to take.

Want but won't get:
Josh Caddy - Just an inside clearance machine with great pace and that self confidence to back himself and take off straight towards goal that you could see with Dabgerfield on his early highlights. Would make our midfield balance start to look elite.
Gaff - Fast, fit, predominantly outside player that uses the ball really well and will only improve. Like Caddy would fit into our midfield beautifully.

Hope we get:
Pitt - Just looks a jet to me. Fast, great skills that will only get better, uses it well, kicks goals, tackles well and seems very team oriented and unselfish. Fairly slight at the moment but has the frame to fill out. Only concern is if he gets it enough.
Atley - Good allround midfielder. good pace without being lightning, backs himself, seems to tackle well, has a good size and awareness. Might be a slight question on his kicking and how much he hurts the opposition going forward but I would be happy to hear his name.
Would also be happy with Jacobs or Aaron Young
Special mention to Jed Lamb and Harper. Both look like brilliant prospects to me that will enhance two clubs forward lines for years, but we just need so much to add a genuine A grade midfielder to our list that I don't think they would be the right choice unless they have midfield potential in the future.

Hopes for pick 61:
Milera - I know that he is small, but that won't matter if no one can lay a glove on him. Just has so many positives and potential that you would have to grab him if he is available. Unfortunately don't think he will be there but fingers crossed. Not sure about his tackling pressure which would be vital in the role that we would use him in but his technique looks sound and just has that natural talent for evasion and goal sense.
Horlin-Smith - Can mark and kick both sides and finds space and is obviously a potentially elite athlete but like most people I haven't seen much of him. Got to worry about his skills, especially his kicking from the highlights that I have seen, but with the hype around him he must have some great potential. His silky movement over the ground reminds me a lot of a young Peter Motley (not in his skills, just something in how he moves) which might be influencing me but would be happy to take a chance on him.

Roll on the 18th.

Re Smith and your observations on his lack of elite pace, Sheehan doesn't seem to be concerned and he has seen quite a bit of these lads.......

Kevin Sheehan says: Medium defender/midfielder with a terrific speed-endurance combination. Powerful player who bursts from stoppages and wins plenty of the footy. Starred in the under-18 championships with All-Australian honours, and averaged 22 disposals, five clearances and six inside 50s

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

There is no doubt in my mind that we will take a mid at pick 14

Craigy said in a recent interview on mmm that he was confident that we can snare a good mid at pick 14 who would be ready to play early in the year....

 

[Hodgy]

Re Smith and your observations on his lack of elite pace, Sheehan doesn't seem to be concerned and he has seen quite a bit of these lads.......

Kevin Sheehan says: Medium defender/midfielder with a terrific speed-endurance combination. Powerful player who bursts from stoppages and wins plenty of the footy. Starred in the under-18 championships with All-Australian honours, and averaged 22 disposals, five clearances and six inside 50s

Yes I would be the first to admit that I haven't seen nearly as much of these guys as the experts so my opinion is probably not worth much but he just doesn't seem to have exposive pace off the mark to me. He is fast enough once he is clear but I just have reservations about him getting clear in the first place. As I said I am sure he will play AFL and is undoubtably a good athlete, I just find him a bit vanilla and a safe pick rather than one that will give us a potentially devastating midfield in the future and his kicking really worries me. I would also question if 22 possies a game for an unatended full time midfielder can really be called starring. Give me 22 from Pitt over him anyday.

 

[Mad Fan of AFL]

Ijust hope we dont go for a 3rd tall or key position player. We need a quality mid desperately from this draft. Im afraid a kpp player will do more harm than good for the balance of the list and develpment/opportunities to the quality we already have at the club

Rendell...mid/ or/& small/medium forward please

 

[Mad Fan of AFL]

oh no not more talk of drafting players in hopes of 'turning them into something' eg. tape into a mid. huge huge risk at fourteen. Please no. Usually more than not doesn't work out. W have had many that hasn't. Im pretty sure you know who.