Our Lowest Draft Pick should be Pick 8

[crowsup]

yeah, probably not fair. my bad



and yet we didn't draft anyone in the first round who wasn't expected to go there i.e. we didn't overdraft anyone.

Davis & Talia need to do a bit more before we start giving Rendell the first round keys to the city.

Unfortunately, quite a few of our supporters, (notice I haven't said most), believe that all our young players are going to be champions.

 

[KUNG FU]

I didn't get to see Davis before he was drafted, so I can't comment in great depth. But I do think he has shown enough to validate a first round at this stage. I don't think you can use the same barometer for a tall as a small, even with first rounders. Not only do they take longer to develop, but they are more often failures. Now some would say that is perfectly good reason to avoid wasting a first round pick on a tall, but this is a total cop out. Whilst talls are more susceptible to injury and failing to meet expectations, any AFC follower with a memory longer than Scott Stevens after a Freo game will appreciate the value of having good tall players and increasingly it is becoming harder to pick them up at later rounds. Franklin, Roughead, J Riewoldt, Kennedy, Clark, Ryder, Naitanui, Kreuzer, Hurley, Pears, M Brown, Birchall, Taylor, Frawley etc; these are the next generation of elite tall players and all of them came from the first round.* You have to cop a few failures on the chin in.

Talia is one that I did not rate as high as some pre-draft and the 3 games I've watched him play this year has not alleviated my concerns. Whilst I do have a soft spot for players with genuine utility - see Otten - I don't see this in Talia. I see two average players, rather than one very good & flexible one. I elaborated pre draft here: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showpost.php?p=16246569&postcount=117


* For the sake of posterity: Gilbert & Tippett were 2nd rounders, Grundy & White were late picks, there are probably some I forgot and Taylor was a mature age pick up in the first round. The other option is mature agers ie Pods & Jamison, but that's for another thread.

 

[WALL-e]

yeah, probably not fair. my bad



and yet we didn't draft anyone in the first round who wasn't expected to go there i.e. we didn't overdraft anyone.

Davis & Talia need to do a bit more before we start giving Rendell the first round keys to the city.

Not praising his picks as saviours, but I think Fantasia first round picks (excluding Sellar and Douglas (in which year we had 2)) have combined for 10 or so games (don't know exactly). At least the Rendell guys have shown something.

Talia was the only one who featured prominently in top 10 predictions from experts pre draft though, but Danger and Philthy were both in the 10-20 range, Danger a little lower maybe due to school commitments.

Definately not massiah worth (yet), but an improvement.

On another point, isn't it strange people get that feeling, yes we won....but lets keep a good pick. I guess it's hard not to when finals is a minute possibility and we've never had a real low pick (not that this year would change that).

 

[Crow-mo]

Not praising his picks as saviours, but I think Fantasia first round picks (excluding Sellar and Douglas (in which year we had 2)) have combined for 10 or so games (don't know exactly). At least the Rendell guys have shown something.

you need to go back and see how long Fantasia was in charge for, as its a lot longer than you seem to be aware of.

however, if you don't over draft anyone, and we didn't - then the other question is about development.

Talia was the only one who featured prominently in top 10 predictions from experts pre draft though, but Danger and Philthy were both in the 10-20 range, Danger a little lower maybe due to school commitments.

I'm not even sure what you're trying to say. Talia & Davis haven't done anything yet, and danger looks good.

that said, a quick peak through Burgatron shows Danger first suggested as a possibility to St Kilda at 9 & Adelaide at 10. not exactly a shock overdraft.

He also discusses Davis as being mooted at our pick.

 

[WALL-e]

you need to go back and see how long Fantasia was in charge for, as its a lot longer than you seem to be aware of.

however, if you don't over draft anyone, and we didn't - then the other question is about development.

I'm not even sure what you're trying to say. Talia & Davis haven't done anything yet, and danger looks good.

that said, a quick peak through Burgatron shows Danger first suggested as a possibility to St Kilda at 9 & Adelaide at 10. not exactly a shock overdraft.

He also discusses Davis as being mooted at our pick.

I think fantastia was 94-06?

Anyway over that period of 13 draft selections we made the following:
94 – No first, Toby Kennett selected early second.
95 – Brent Williams – don’t believe he played
96 – Tom Gilligan – Don’t believe he played
97 – Lance Picioane – 4 games
98 – Brett Burton – 170 games (start of year) – very good pick
99 – No first pick
00 – Angwin – 0 games – Ayres fault
01 – Reilly – 112 games (start of year) – solid pick, but passing on some very handy players
02 – No pick – Carey year – **** up by club
03 – Fergus Watts – 5 Games - Fail
04 – John Meesen – 2 games - Fail
05 – Douglas & Pheiffer – 43/0 games
06 – Sellar – 11 games

So in that period we drafted 11 players in the first round, totalling 347 games for the club. We have three players who remain on our list, 3 trade aways and 1 who was picked up and delisted prior with minimal games.

This equates to 31 games per player drafted, or 25 games per average first round pick per year.

As you’ve mentioned, the jury is most definitely out on Talia and Davis due to lack of time, but Dangers already played more than 31, or around the mark (excuse the laziness). So you’d say, Rendell probably has the upper hand in the whole first rounders so far. But I’m not claiming him as the second coming either.

I think what burns most was the recent 1st rounders by Fantasia (02-06) in which we didn’t get a whole lot out of our picks (Douggie and Sellar appear to be on the way now though).

Who knows what we’ll do or get in this years first round, but it will be interesting to see how Rendell picks his smalls.

I’d like to note though, Fantasia did a terrific job drafting in the 2nd and 3rd rounds over the years.

 

[Crow-mo]

02 – No pick – Carey year – **** up by club
03 – Fergus Watts – 5 Games - Fail

the 2 worst drafts of modern times, what should he have done?

trading out of 2002 was a great decision, did we really want to bank on spending pick 4 on Tim Walsh.

on point however, if you want to talk a seriously good draft pick look at Stephen Hill. we picked no one outside their range, whereas Hill at Pick 3 was an awesomely gutsy move - made better by the fact he has subsequently repaid that faith and will prob be the best player of his year.

should we trade Rendell for Freo's draft manager

 

[TigerTime88]

I don't normally like to make generalisations but there's something ringing alarm bells about taking a young indigenous midfielder with "potential" with a pick like 6. I know there are exception eg Rioli, Buddy (although not a small) but there have been a number that haven't worked, e.g. Raph Clarke, Tambling, Jarrod Oakley-Nicholls (spelling?), Daniel Wells.

They have turned out OK but not haven't fulfilled their potential or necessarily justified their high pick. It is easy in hindsight though

I guess it's a risk/reward trade off. You look at Rioli, a kid with great "potential" who slid in the draft. With these types of guys it's a higher risk but a big reward if it turns out. I'm just not convinced it's worth the risk

I must admit I don't know much about this particular kid and am sure I'll have people disagreeing with me. That's half the reason I posted, I'm happy to have my mind changed about this. Thoughts?

I completely understand what you are saying. Coming from a supporter whose club took the freakshow the was Richard Tambling at u/18 level. Make no mistake Tambling was a freak and Sheehan described him " as a mix between Judd and Akermanis"...wow how wrong he was.

I think this year the first 4 picks will depend on GC:

1. Swallow
2. Day
3. Bennell or Darling

If Darling is available at pick 4 I think we will take him. Bennell probably the same however I am concerned about taking this kid. Could turn out like Stephen Hill though.

I find it interesting reading what some of the Crows supporters are interesting to offer up. You guys have so many quality young talls in Talia, Davis, McKernan ect but they are all still in development.

Someone suggested Thompson would be offered to EFC for Davey, a 2nd rounder and C.Bock. That would be the worst deal ever...Thompson is worth way more than 2 average and limited footballers and a 2nd rounder.

 

[WALL-e]

the 2 worst drafts of modern times, what should he have done?

trading out of 2002 was a great decision, did we really want to bank on spending pick 4 on Tim Walsh.

on point however, if you want to talk a seriously good draft pick look at Stephen Hill. we picked no one outside their range, whereas Hill at Pick 3 was an awesomely gutsy move - made better by the fact he has subsequently repaid that faith and will prob be the best player of his year.

should we trade Rendell for Freo's draft manager

Hill was a fantastic pick. Very ballsy, and Lloyd's brother, he's been fantastic for them.

I don't think Rendell's been 'conventional' though, there's been no real what the **** moments, but guys like Danger and Davis flew up draft orders as rumours had us taking them, like Hill, who jumped up orders days before due to talk.

It's amazing how the mocks change in the last few days. Danger was to us in the second round of Burgans initial draft and then went to the Swans with talk at our first in the final one.

It's getting harder to have those left of field guys as well as everyone has eyes everywhere, there's no more hiding, and everyones scouring for athletic left field talent to get the one up.

Lol @ Tim Walsh

Would have had #2 in 02 after Carlton lost their picks. So Wells I guess, but we weren't to know.

You're right re 03, Mundy Chaplin and Symes are the only players of note close to Watts. Not much in that year.

 

[johnnypanther]

the 2 worst drafts of modern times, what should he have done?

trading out of 2002 was a great decision, did we really want to bank on spending pick 4 on Tim Walsh.

Good to see someone who knows how the trade/draft system actually worked and evaluates it properly.

I always thought you were the omniscient one on this board Cro-mo