Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[DaRick]

One thing Labor did very well this election is not chase the Greens vote. You cannot chase the Greens vote without moving further left. It was dumb luck that the Greens imploded like they did - bit the strategy was right. You can go back and get the Greens on side after the election if you need to - which as it turns out they don’t.

Why the LNP chase the One Nation and Australia First vote has me dumbfounded. They are going to get those votes eventually anyway and it leaves a massive void for Labor to fill in the centre.

Howard did successfully co-opt One Nation by adopting and watering down some of their policies.

I suspect that the LNP are trying to repeat the same trick, only that One Nation lacks the appeal that it did in the late 1990's - plus no-one in the current LNP IMO is as skilful a politician as Howard was in his prime.

 

[Hawk Dork]

You do realise PVO was being sarcastic!

he has been trolling hard,quite well too
https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP

 

[Demonic Ascent]

A Sudanese is 33 times more likely to comit a crime than an Aus born person. And that isn't a problem?

Again, so the overal crime rate has to be 51% before it's a problem in your eyes? And hypthetically if that was the case, is that still racist?

So sick and tired of this leftist horseshit where everything is racist. Same thing in Europe a decade ago, look at how well that's turning out...

Poverty is a far greater influence on crime than skin colour.

 

[Crankyhawk]

The kind whose father needs a tax loss on the books.

Have we found gc26 irl identity?
Silver spoon check
“Works” for father check

 

[Crankyhawk]

Signs and portents - the hunger games years

Here is an example of what the LNP is doing wrong.

Brighton is about as blue as they come. It was Louise Asher's seat, held by a massive margin, and somewhere that should never be in play. If you want to put someone somewhere they should never be in doubt, someone who is a future leader of the party, this is a spot. Choose wisely, and watch them grow.

Or, you could be Kroger and his claque, pandering to the happy clappers and nutjobs. Let me introduce, James Newberry.

James is a former Napthine and Abbott staffer, an apparatchik par excellance. A happy clapper charismatic with three law degrees where his soul should be, with the characteristic psychopathology of his ken, it should be a hard sell to the otherwise decent folk of Brighton to make this troglodyte seem appealing.

So in steps the Liberal Branch head for Brighton one Marcus Bastiaan (see above) to stack like nobody has stacked before, and in comes our hero..

An idea of his psychopathology can be garnered from his twitter feed. Amongst a stream of the usual goo and drivel about immigrants, there is an awful lot of US based retweeting of Trump ally sourced material, and clues to his ideals such as this


Normally I would expect a politician wanting to close down the only homeless accommodation in his electorate and sell it to his wealthy mates to want to keep that shit secret. At least our hero is open about it, indeed boasts about it without seeming to see this as a problem. If there is anything notably impressive about this fellow, it is his seeming lack of any desire to cloak his bigotry and lack of shame in otherwise acceptable language. The responses on twitter are telling.

He does tweet a lot about praying though, you have to give him that.

This is how you almost lose Brighton to a spotty faced adolescent who joined the ALP 2 months ago and probably was doing it to lose his cherry. By imposing a freak on otherwise decent people and watching them vomit bodily at the reality of this jumped up s**tstain representing them. I would guess the high informal rate in Brighton might have something to do with this.

But according to the usual types, the answer is to just go harder.

I think he was hoping that Brighton people were like him and wanted to shut the shelter to improve property values/ put the homeless somewhere else

 

[Blinkybill66]

On a personal note, I am acquainted with Danielle Green and am delighted that she won Yan Yean as expected. She’s an excellent local member.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I think he was hoping that Brighton people were like him and wanted to shut the shelter to improve property values/ put the homeless somewhere else

It all gets back to the Liberals not actually standing for anything.

The old “Rich = Liberal voter, poor = Labor voter” dichotomy won’t necessarily hold.

I mean, what do today’s Libs really offer highly paid execs, doctors etc that live in these suburbs? What are their policies?

 

[Crankyhawk]

It all gets back to the Liberals not actually standing for anything.

The old “Rich = Liberal voter, poor = Labor voter” dichotomy won’t necessarily hold.

I mean, what do today’s Libs really offer highly paid execs, doctors etc that live in these suburbs? What are their policies?

Lower taxes and capital gain concessions? Better salary sacrifice

 

[NSWCROW]

Unless I found the wrong Ozpolitics forum, I thought it was rubbish.

That " juliar " moron drags the entire show down.

 

[its free real estate]

Howard did successfully co-opt One Nation by adopting and watering down some of their policies.

I suspect that the LNP are trying to repeating the same trick, only that One Nation lacks the appeal that it did in the late 1990's - plus no-one in the current LNP IMO is as skilful a politician as Howard was in his prime.

Howard’s strategy only worked because of September 11.

 

[tandino]

Just poking my head in and saying that I have been seeking out an Oz politics forum to celebrate/gloat about the LNP being comprehensively kicked into touch.

Bugger me, bigfooty politics is not only the most vibrant, but (mainly) the most intelligent of them all.

Good show guys.

Don't you be coming in here blowing smoke up our ass.

We're a bunch of ferals, we know that.

 

[Dry Rot]

Just poking my head in and saying that I have been seeking out an Oz politics forum to celebrate/gloat about the LNP being comprehensively kicked into touch.

Welcome aboard mate.

Bugger me, bigfooty politics is not only the most vibrant, but (mainly) the most intelligent of them all.

I'm not sure. My "Pyne for PM" campaign curiously found little support here.

Serves the rest of you right, you almost got Dutton and now you have Morrison.

 

[The Speaker]

Bugger me, bigfooty politics is not only the most vibrant, but (mainly) the most intelligent of them all.

top kek

 

[go you pups]

Meh Hinch and his liberals are only 13 members combined + 2 taxi drivers. That still leaves 19 over 15!

Imo Hinch is more Greens than Liberal these days

But yeah I think he swings around between the two

Labor should never, ever chase the Greens vote.

Probably not

Though having them onside with policy helps as their ideologies are similar normally

Prue Macsween looks like a pole dancer from Goldfingers from the 2000's who has now let herself go because any more face tucks would see her lips meet around her left earlobe. Pole dancers from Goldfingers in the 2000's would have cause to be angry at me for the comparison on moral grounds. I apologise.

Reckon Goldfingers was the only strippers I highly approved of as a youngster, once I starting hitting the King St precinct.

Kittens easily the worst (though that's in South Melbourne).

Poverty is a far greater influence on crime than skin colour.

Yep, poor influences/peer pressure comes into it too

 

[QuietB]

Poverty is a far greater influence on crime than skin colour.

Which crimes?

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Imo Hinch is more Greens than Liberal these days

Look at the way he votes. With Coalition most of the time.

 

[William Wonka]

Pole dancers from Goldfingers in the 2000's would have cause to be angry at me for the comparison on moral grounds. I apologise.

And on aesthetic grounds.
Prue looks like the cadaver of an unconvincing transvestite.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Howard’s strategy only worked because of September 11.

Hanson and Howard's coopting of her policies predated s11

Remember it was the Asian invasion back then

 

[Bunk Moreland]

What shouldn’t be overshadowed here is the beating the Greens have taken.

Labor are taking votes back off them... large numbers of them.

 

[aCunningPlan]

What shouldn’t be overshadowed here is the beating the Greens have taken.

Labor are taking votes back off them... large numbers of them.

Pretty easy for labor to be progressive in Victoria and make the case that if you want deliberable solutions to things like energy targets, safe schools and safe injecting you are best to vote ALP.

That being said the Greens will fair much better federally next year simply by drumming the refugee message Day and night to bring back its base.

 

[its free real estate]

Hanson and Howard's coopting of her policies predated s11

Remember it was the Asian invasion back then

Howard never won an election on racial animus before September 11. In fact it worked against him in the 80s when he made it an explicit part of his platform and Australia was essentially more racist.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Howard never won an election on racial animus before September 11.

it was a simmer, not a boil, but winding back multiculturalism was very much a part of his rhetoric

 

[its free real estate]

it was a simmer, not a boil, but winding back multiculturalism was very much a part of his rhetoric

Absent September 11 Howard loses in 2001.

 

[its free real estate]

Also Howard didn’t coopt Hanson, he was against Asian immigration 10 years before Hanson came on the scene.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Absent September 11 Howard loses in 2001.

agree on this

Also Howard didn’t coopt Hanson, he was against Asian immigration 10 years before Hanson came on the scene.

he didnt have the audience back then. hanson energized the electorate to that message, and he rode on her coat tails

howard was excellent at many things, but he wasnt a leader who inspired passion. remember he was the guy who had his goal to make Australia feel "comfortable and relaxed"