Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[its free real estate]

The kind whose father needs a tax loss on the books.

Yeah, something suss there.

 

[GreyWind]

He sounds more like a complete loser:
"A three-time university dropout"
"got into business with the aid of his father"
"He now spends his time leaping between an e-commerce start-up and politics"

And now he's been very close to the helm of a political party which has suffered a loss for the guiness books.

What a ******* loser lmao

He was a plonker at school and he's turned into a ****wit since leaving. Going by the Wiki page on him Brighton Grammar held him back a year as well as he was initially a year above me.

 

[its free real estate]

His wife looks like a real pain in the arse too

Definitely, but I’d still go there.

 

[Bad Horse]

Signs and portents - the hunger games years

Here is an example of what the LNP is doing wrong.

Brighton is about as blue as they come. It was Louise Asher's seat, held by a massive margin, and somewhere that should never be in play. If you want to put someone somewhere they should never be in doubt, someone who is a future leader of the party, this is a spot. Choose wisely, and watch them grow.

Or, you could be Kroger and his claque, pandering to the happy clappers and nutjobs. Let me introduce, James Newberry.

James is a former Napthine and Abbott staffer, an apparatchik par excellance. A happy clapper charismatic with three law degrees where his soul should be, with the characteristic psychopathology of his ken, it should be a hard sell to the otherwise decent folk of Brighton to make this troglodyte seem appealing.

So in steps the Liberal Branch head for Brighton one Marcus Bastiaan (see above) to stack like nobody has stacked before, and in comes our hero..

An idea of his psychopathology can be garnered from his twitter feed. Amongst a stream of the usual goo and drivel about immigrants, there is an awful lot of US based retweeting of Trump ally sourced material, and clues to his ideals such as this


Normally I would expect a politician wanting to close down the only homeless accommodation in his electorate and sell it to his wealthy mates to want to keep that shit secret. At least our hero is open about it, indeed boasts about it without seeming to see this as a problem. If there is anything notably impressive about this fellow, it is his seeming lack of any desire to cloak his bigotry and lack of shame in otherwise acceptable language. The responses on twitter are telling.

He does tweet a lot about praying though, you have to give him that.

This is how you almost lose Brighton to a spotty faced adolescent who joined the ALP 2 months ago and probably was doing it to lose his cherry. By imposing a freak on otherwise decent people and watching them vomit bodily at the reality of this jumped up s**tstain representing them. I would guess the high informal rate in Brighton might have something to do with this.

But according to the usual types, the answer is to just go harder.

 

[Bombermania]

It's bizarre how this happened, like you'd think in 2018 Victoria which is dominated by the services sector and unionism is at an all-time low that the traditional party of business would have had no trouble finding common ground with voters while the party of the unions would be the one needing to re-invent itself. Instead we've got the complete opposite. Bizarre, absolutely bizarre.

This is a good point because from a demographic point of view with an emerging professional class of workers which now makes up something like a third of the working population and a population that is financially well off by historical standards then the Liberals should be the natural government but instead of embracing these trends we have the Liberal Party turning regressive and reactionary. They have too many people still fighting over issues from the 1980s or longing for something that probably never really existed. It is not Victoria that has changed, it is the Liberal Party that has.

 

[DaRick]

Neoconservatism is really only a term I would use for International Relations theory. They're either liberals or conservatives.

I tend to think of them as being militaristic neoliberals or conservatives. Socially they range from quite progressive to quite conservative but economically they're very much Thatcherites.

 

[ClokesShankedIt]

Definitely, but I’d still go there.

 

[Maggie5]

Current seats in doubt - don't think they will change with 70% of votes counted in some cases.

 

[its free real estate]

The other story of this election is the almost irrelevance of the Nats with them like to lose two seats to independents, Morwell (although think Ind was ex Nat) and Mildura and a 2 point swing against them statewide. This would be interesting Federally.

I think the Joyce saga may have trashed their brand immeasurably. Country people aren’t going to vote for a lefty party, but a popular independent local and the Nationals will be cooked.

 

[NSWCROW]

****ing LOL at murdoch




fingers in ears LALALALALALALALALALALALALALA



petulant filth

 

[its free real estate]

******* LOL at murdoch




fingers in ears LALALALALALALALALALALALALALA



petulant filth

That bloody Mordecai, huh?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

******* LOL at murdoch




fingers in ears LALALALALALALALALALALALALALA



petulant filth

check out their main headlines today on the website. crime crime crime crime, and on it goes

 

[Maggie5]

I think the Joyce saga may have trashed their brand immeasurably. Country people aren’t going to vote for a lefty party, but a popular independent local and the Nationals will be cooked.

Think it may not have been just the affair but more about it being all about him (Joyce) and the Nats not really having anyone else that has a strong voice in the joint party room. There have been some good Nationals in the past, Fischer, Truss, Anthony that worked hard for their party.

Agree though, a good, local independent will give them a run for their money.

 

[NSWCROW]

That bloody Mordecai, huh?

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

Just don't expect a surplus anytime soon then.

Hope you comfort yourself about your high energy prices and lack of jobs by reassuring yourself that you are a good and nice person.

All good we will enjoy a government who spends on infrastructure and health care and not one who cuts everything and fires cops then sits on their hands for 4 years. Liberal we will keep you safe from blacks and terrorists but we will also cut the police force and health care

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

I thought the issue was Sudanese crime, so it's all black people is it, how is that not racist?

Because all white people who commit crime are only mentally ill and we should feel sorry for them

 

[Ant_]

Voting above the line means we now have two but t hurt taxi owners in the senate

 

[go you pups]

Voting above the line means we now have two offended taxi owners in the senate

I filled out the entire 46 allocations below the line

The two Liberal Democrat flogs were choices 45 and 46 for me. Disappointing not to see Australian Conservatives running in the western region, they'd have been 45th and 46th instead with LD going up to 43rd and 44th.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Voting above the line means we now have two offended taxi owners in the senate

dont worry

they will rock up to parliament late because they will go to Springvale by mistake

 

[Bunkdar]

Neither major party deserved a win
The only thing i can feel good about this election is the fact fear mongering & law snoreda didn't work. Congratz Victoria

Funniest line 4 me was by Matthew Guy in the ABC radio debate with Jon Faine running the law and order spiel
" I don't care about evidence "

 

[Benny78]

Meh Hinch and his liberals are only 13 members combined + 2 taxi drivers. That still leaves 19 over 15!

 

[Bad Horse]

Current seats in doubt - don't think they will change with 70% of votes counted in some cases.

View attachment 588546

There isnt much to go, but some could swing.

Given the generally poor performance of the Greens in their organisation, and the late breaking cluster****s in their campaign, its likely they will go worse in postals than their on the day vote, as they will be both later in time now and more exposed to the Greens incompetence in the week leading up, and better for a party with stronger organisation anyway.

So I think Brunswick is gone to the ALP, and I wouldn't rule out Melbourne even.

Morwell, if that 2PP count is accurate (and Im always a little wary of 2PP counts in multi-corner contests/independents), I dont know why it would be in doubt. That aint coming back.

Likewise Benambra shouldnt be a question, if that number is right (but see disclaimer above). One not here I'm still not convinced of is Ovens. Just something seems wrong there.

Prahran, I assume the only thing holding it from being declared is if Greens (3rd on primary) somehow failed to overtake Labor in 2nd and it turned into Labor v Liberal. I cant see that happening. Hibbins' ground game was uncommonly strong for the Greens.

Of the rest, I cant see Sandringham or Nepean moving now enough to matter.

That leaves Ripon, Hawthorn, and Bayswater.

All could go the other way. The imponderable is, how much did LNP support soften in the last week, and is that going to be reflected in the postals, absentees, etc to come. Will they break more like the vote on the day, in which case, all 3 could go ALP, or reflect more the other postals and earlies which brought all 3 back to evens from comfortable Labor. Dont know.

best case for Labor is win all of Ripon, Bayswater, Hawthorn, Brunswick, maybe pull a miracle in Prahran and Melbourne.

Realistically, its maybe Brunswick and one or two more at most, plus Nepean from that list. I have them 55-56, Greens 2, IND 3, LNP 27-28

 

[Demonic Ascent]

1 in 10 homes get broken into in some suburbs in the south east and west. Terrorism becoming a yearly norm.

But sure, ‘fear and division’, aka putting your fingers in your ears and telling yourself nothing is wrong

Lol

 

[QuietB]

But they don't know why they don't stand for anything, which is why their only response is "we have to go back to being a broad church".

Being a broad church worked when the conservatives and the liberals had an enemy in the socialist ALP, up until the end of the Cold War. But that generation died with Howard, because the Hawke/Keating era turned the ALP into a predominantly liberal party. With no common enemy (despite a re-emergent socialist wing in the ALP), the Liberals are left fighting themselves over very significant differences in their worldviews.

One thing Labor did very well this election is not chase the Greens vote. You cannot chase the Greens vote without moving further left. It was dumb luck that the Greens imploded like they did - bit the strategy was right. You can go back and get the Greens on side after the election if you need to - which as it turns out they don’t.

Why the LNP chase the One Nation and Australia First vote has me dumbfounded. They are going to get those votes eventually anyway and it leaves a massive void for Labor to fill in the centre.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I keep seeing the name Bastiaan, so I had a look. Jesus Christ it got ugly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Bastiaan

"Marcus Bastiaan (born 1990)[2] is an Australian businessman and political power broker. Bastiaan graduated from Brighton Grammar during 2008"

So he's been out of highschool for 10 years. Whats he done since?

"Bastiaan attended multiple universities before completing a Bachelor of Film and Television at Swinburne University in 2014.[22] Bastiaan has run several technology businesses, including e-commerce and logistics start-up.Bastiaan's father is a periodontist and supported Bastiaan in starting an antiques business."

He starts businesses with daddy's money. Not exactly someone who would relate to the factory worker in Dandenong. But I do give him credit for trying.

This for me was the best part of the article

"In 2017, Bastiaan was interviewed by the ABC TV show Four Corners during which he stated "those who don't like a big Liberal Party should go and join another party""

I haven't watched the interview so I can't say what "big" means - I assume he is referring to complaints about his branch stacking - but **** me dead. This snotty little aristocrat 10 years out of high school arrogantly calls the shots and tells the rest of the party to piss off. Any wonder why the libs just copped the baseball bats?

If there is any doubt - I laughed when I saw this photo of what the SMH labelled "(A) Victorian Liberal Party power couple"

I think I read something about him, IIRC he’s some brand of religious nutter, a young face the weirdo Christians put up to represent them.

He’s not there for any other reason. He’s in his 20s, has no profile, no history and has never had a job. He’s clearly just the face for something uglier.