Draft Watcher SMYTHE's 2024 Draft Thread

[THE_GUN]

Crows and Draper looking like a perfect fit and a match made in heaven
Right pick right club

 

[danster168]

Smythe Hey mate, thoughts on who you reckon the dees would be looking at with around pick 10. We are DESPERATE for tall forwards, but also could do with some key defenders for life after Steven May

1

Steven May

Age

32

Ht

193cm

Wt

101kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

10.5

4star

HB

4.2

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.5

3star

MG

307.3

4star

D

15.5

4star

K

12.1

5star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

0.5

1star

MG

378.4

5star

D

12.4

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

and more mids. So no idea. When I look at Jack Whitlock, I'm still deciding whether he is coordinated or not. Moves well but sort of looks like a giraffe, all limbs.

 

[Smythe]

Smythe Hey mate, thoughts on who you reckon the dees would be looking at with around pick 10. We are DESPERATE for tall forwards, but also could do with some key defenders for life after Steven May and more mids. So no idea. When I look at Jack Whitlock, I'm still deciding whether he is coordinated or not. Moves well but sort of looks like a giraffe, all limbs.

Hard one mate,........ i would say at that range they would be going best available, which is probably a mid that had slid a few selections due to bids etc.

You grabbed a nice winger last year in Windsor and have a plethora of tall fwds they are trying to improve in Seston, Kentfield, Adams, Jefferson, Schache, Brown, McDonald def/fwd, Fullarton ruck/fwd (will/can any of them make it??, brown, schache and McDonald may not even be on the list next year) and you probably need a young mid.

Mids in that range - could it be a Lalor, Allan, Langford, Moraes??

Tall forwards, Jobe Shanahan, Jack Whitlock, or dual positioner Matt Whitlock def/fwd and see where he develops better, but if you want a lockdown defender Harry O'Farrell is your man which would let Jake Lever do his thing.

Could you see if Sydney want to jump up and grab someone they like early and trade that first pick down to them giving you 2 late picks in the first round, it is pretty even from around the 12/13 mark onwards, giving you a chance to get a KPD and KPF although there are developable talls from the 20 on range also and you already (currently) have a late second round and early third rounder you could use on those options - Jonty Faull, Harry Armstrong, Tom Simms, Charlie West, Charlie Nicholls, Kayle Gerreyn, Zayden Lockwood, Alix Tauru.

I would say, IMO, if the draft were today, they may be looking at/hoping for Sam Lalor or Bo Allan for their first pick and maybe even possibly Alex Dodson for their second pick, although they may have to move up the order from their late second pick to get him. Alex can kick a goal but is primarily a very good tap Ruckman. He marks around the ground, can move well, rack up possessions, kicks well, great hands, clean below his knees, gets clearances and is very athletic (hopefully he chooses AFL over basketball).
Then with later picks get developable KPP's as i mentioned earlier (named above) as it is a deep, even draft pool, however i doubt Gerreyn or Faull will be available for those other picks Melbourne currently have.

 

[danster168]

Hard one mate,........ i would say at that range they would be going best available, which is probably a mid that had slid a few selections due to bids etc.

You grabbed a nice winger last year in Windsor and have a plethora of tall fwds they are trying to improve in Seston, Kentfield, Adams, Jefferson, Schache, Brown, McDonald def/fwd, Fullarton ruck/fwd (will/can any of them make it??, brown, schache and McDonald may not even be on the list next year) and you probably need a young mid.

Mids in that range - could it be a Lalor, Allan, Langford, Moraes??

Tall forwards, Jobe Shanahan, Jack Whitlock, or dual positioner Matt Whitlock def/fwd and see where he develops better, but if you want a lockdown defender Harry O'Farrell is your man which would let Jake Lever do his thing.

Could you see if Sydney want to jump up and grab someone they like early and trade that first pick down to them giving you 2 late picks in the first round, it is pretty even from around the 12/13 mark onwards, giving you a chance to get a KPD and KPF although there are developable talls from the 20 on range also and you already (currently) have a late second round and early third rounder you could use on those options - Jonty Faull, Harry Armstrong, Tom Simms, Charlie West, Charlie Nicholls, Kayle Gerreyn, Zayden Lockwood, Alix Tauru.

I would say, IMO, if the draft were today, they may be looking at/hoping for Sam Lalor or Bo Allan for their first pick and maybe even possibly Alex Dodson for their second pick, although they may have to move up the order from their late second pick to get him. Alex can kick a goal but is primarily a very good tap Ruckman. He marks around the ground, can move well, rack up possessions, kicks well, great hands, clean below his knees, gets clearances and is very athletic (hopefully he chooses AFL over basketball).
Then with later picks get developable KPP's as i mentioned earlier (named above) as it is a deep, even draft pool, however i doubt Gerreyn or Faull will be available for those other picks Melbourne currently have.

Thanks so much for your detailed reply. I think Jefferson is touch and go. He lacks aggression and physicality. Kentfield is barely getting a touch in the VFL, Adams is a defender, Schache is delist worthy, Sestan is a small fwd, Brown will get cut, Fullarton isn't a fwd (more of a ruck) and Mcdonald is a defender now and maybe 1 more season and then delist. So we really have no-one outside of Van Rooyen in key forward stocks.


Thanks for all of those names, I'll look them up. I do hope we just go best available and don't succumb to pressure to draft a tall just for the sake of it. Yeah, all of our other picks are late 30's and 40's so I feel that if the demons don't trade our Future 1 then we're stuck with essentially 1 draft pick and the rest just highly speculative picks. Although it is a good draft to have late picks in because the draft seems to have a lot of depth?

 

[Smythe]

Thanks so much for your detailed reply. I think Jefferson is touch and go. He lacks aggression and physicality. Kentfield is barely getting a touch in the VFL, Adams is a defender, Schache is delist worthy, Sestan is a small fwd, Brown will get cut, Fullarton isn't a fwd (more of a ruck) and Mcdonald is a defender now and maybe 1 more season and then delist. So we really have no-one outside of Van Rooyen in key forward stocks.


Thanks for all of those names, I'll look them up. I do hope we just go best available and don't succumb to pressure to draft a tall just for the sake of it. Yeah, all of our other picks are late 30's and 40's so I feel that if the demons don't trade our Future 1 then we're stuck with essentially 1 draft pick and the rest just highly speculative picks. Although it is a good draft to have late picks in because the draft seems to have a lot of depth?

I meant Turner, not Adams. And yeah, i keep thinking Seston is a tall fwd but what is he around 190cm?
I also actually think Fullarton is better as a fwd than in the ruck, but as depth only, he is not up to starter standard. But yeah, I agree a few will move on leaving a dearth of backup/developing fwds, also ruck stocks are very thin. Unbearably thin.
Also, it's not that I forgot about Petty down fwd either, I just don't think he will stay long term, maybe he even goes this year if Adelaide want him bad enough.

 

[briztoon]

Thanks so much for your detailed reply. I think Jefferson is touch and go. He lacks aggression and physicality. Kentfield is barely getting a touch in the VFL, Adams is a defender, Schache is delist worthy, Sestan is a small fwd, Brown will get cut, Fullarton isn't a fwd (more of a ruck) and Mcdonald is a defender now and maybe 1 more season and then delist. So we really have no-one outside of Van Rooyen in key forward stocks.


Thanks for all of those names, I'll look them up. I do hope we just go best available and don't succumb to pressure to draft a tall just for the sake of it. Yeah, all of our other picks are late 30's and 40's so I feel that if the demons don't trade our Future 1 then we're stuck with essentially 1 draft pick and the rest just highly speculative picks. Although it is a good draft to have late picks in because the draft seems to have a lot of depth?

Surely Melbourne look to package up all your late picks, either to try and trade for Carlton’s first round pick, or Gold Coast’s pick 20. Both should be gettable in a live draft night trade.

Give’s Melbourne two first round picks, then a bunch of picks at the back end of the draft.

 

[danster168]

I meant Turner, not Adams. And yeah, i keep thinking Seston is a tall fwd but what is he around 190cm?
I also actually think Fullarton is better as a fwd than in the ruck, but as depth only, he is not up to starter standard. But yeah, I agree a few will move on leaving a dearth of backup/developing fwds, also ruck stocks are very thin. Unbearably thin.
Also, it's not that I forgot about Petty down fwd either, I just don't think he will stay long term, maybe he even goes this year if Adelaide want him bad enough.

Sestan is 188cm but he plays smaller than his height.
Yeah if Petty goes it would completely change our draft hand but I dont really want to lose him. he's a very good defender.

 

[danster168]

Surely Melbourne look to package up all your late picks, either to try and trade for Carlton’s first round pick, or Gold Coast’s pick 20. Both should be gettable in a live draft night trade.

Give’s Melbourne two first round picks, then a bunch of picks at the back end of the draft.

I dont think 38, 40 and 46 etc. is really going to help any club who wants to trade down. They're just so speculative.

 

[briztoon]

I dont think 38, 40 and 46 etc. is really going to help any club who wants to trade down. They're just so speculative.

They are valuable to teams looking for extra points to match an academy or father son bid.

 

[blueiris]

They are valuable to teams looking for extra points to match an academy or father son bid.

Are they though with the changing of the rules and points allocated those points don’t look like being good picks

 

[briztoon]

Are they though with the changing of the rules and points allocated those points don’t look like being good picks

I’m not sure the changes to the points system will be implemented this year. I believe there will be enough lobbying from Carlton, Richmond and clubs with father son and academy kids to see these changes introduced next year.

If you listen to Twomey, he has repeatedly said he can see some changes introduced this year, but those changes are ones that benefit clubs.

Making NGA availability either outside the top 20 or removing restrictions all together.

That benefits a couple of clubs this year. Most notably Essendon, and possibly the WA clubs.

And he’s also said future trading might be pushed out to two years, and brought in this offseason.

 

[Jack Richards]

Smythe who is the best small forward in the draft?

 

[Juice030103]

Seems like we will get a pick in before the f/s picks

who are some good defenders around that range

 

[Smythe]

Smythe who is the best small forward in the draft?

Taj Hotton. Although, he can easily play high half fwd and go through the mid also, but before his injury curtailed this year he showed enough to say that and even though he is not a pure small fwd, that is definitely where he will start his afl career. Finds the goals with class and poise and tackles well.

Joe Berry is probably the best pure small fwd. Tackles hard, team oriented and kicks bags of goals.

Isaac Kako in my opinion is right after him. Kako probably has more speed and can be more of a one touch player and run up the ground better giving a team different scope but I don’t like his goal kicking. I don’t think it is bad enough to put teams off though as they will back themselves in to fix it.

On my rankings I have Kako above Berry by one spot purely because of Kako’s speed, agility, he is dual positional and, most of the time, he has one touch skills.

 

[Smythe]

Seems like we will get a pick in before the f/s picks

who are some good defenders around that range

Depends on the type, Harry O’Farrell- tall one v one lockdown defender, Matt Whitlock rangy athletic intercept marker still beefing up for one v ones but can also play tall fwd, Noah Mraz is a tall rangy defender, still working on his one v one skills, likes to play next to or behind and come in with a fist abut also runs to intercept and then set play up from that rebound. Or will Tobin Travaglia be available, mid sized defender very much in the Nick Vlaustin mold but with more run dash and dare than what Nick has these days.

 

[Smythe]

Are they though with the changing of the rules and points allocated those points don’t look like being good picks

They wouldn’t do it for this year given teams are running a business and effectively set themselves up last year for this year and would demand compensation if the afl changed the rules this year.
Some will be changed but none that would affect the pick swapping and points build up some teams have, that most likely will get changed, but it would come into effect for next year and the AFL would have to make sure all teams are advised before the silly season begins this year so they can arrange themselves, take stock and attack the trades and pick swaps with the knowledge of the new rule.

 

[Smythe]

Sestan is 188cm but he plays smaller than his height.
Yeah if Petty goes it would completely change our draft hand but I dont really want to lose him. he's a very good defender.

I agree with the Petty comment, he is a much better defender than a fwd, it’s what he has known his whole life.

 

[eth-dog]

I’m not sure the changes to the points system will be implemented this year. I believe there will be enough lobbying from Carlton, Richmond and clubs with father son and academy kids to see these changes introduced next year.

If you listen to Twomey, he has repeatedly said he can see some changes introduced this year, but those changes are ones that benefit clubs.

Making NGA availability either outside the top 20 or removing restrictions all together.

That benefits a couple of clubs this year. Most notably Essendon, and possibly the WA clubs.

And he’s also said future trading might be pushed out to two years, and brought in this offseason.

It'll be interesting to see what happens if our pick 13/14 (most likely IMO) gets pushed out due to FA/Father Son. If it lands around 17/18 do we risk taking Kako knowing that he's a few picks away from being ours? Do we bid on Camporeale if he isn't bid on already to get an extra little bit of security?

 

[Smythe]

It'll be interesting to see what happens if our pick 13/14 (most likely IMO) gets pushed out due to FA/Father Son. If it lands around 17/18 do we risk taking Kako knowing that he's a few picks away from being ours? Do we bid on Camporeale if he isn't bid on already to get an extra little bit of security?

That’s what I love most about the silly season, the ‘draft game’ strategy

 

[eth-dog]

That’s what I love most about the silly season, the ‘draft game’ strategy

Part of me hopes it stays the same this season, so that if we want Isaac we just take him.

 

[CrowTownRoad]

Crows and Draper looking like a perfect fit and a match made in heaven
Right pick right club

I think West Coast might just steal him with the pick before. Would suit their midfield well too

 

[Smythe]

With the champs now done and dusted, some players showed a bit more than expected, some eased off a bit and others have gone back to their state comps and even seniors and played really well.

Watched 12 games this week (twice each) and realised I have been really harsh on some players during the year and taken it easy on others with a ‘faith’ they will show what I believe they can.

I have also gone over all of my data sets from the last two years of this crop and the difference between where I rated some players back then and now is staggering for some.

I have brought back some old data to compare to this years and found my rankings currently would be different today than what I had released last week. This is mostly to having more time over the last few years and having more variables to rate within my rankings system than I have had this year.

So, I have re-ranked them accordingly.

I will be bringing back my positional rankings tomorrow night and will release my updated rankings this week…….and I have a new number 1.

Also keep your eye out for the Big Footy mid season draft starting tomorrow!

 

[Significant]

I think West Coast might just steal him with the pick before. Would suit their midfield well too

St Kilda now

 

[Wouldbetackler]

Don’t get the hype with Sid Draper at all

He has just smashed his first 2 ever games of league football this week and last. 27 touches, 10 tackles and 9 clearances was this week's effort.

 

[footy411]

He has just smashed his first 2 ever games of league football this week and last. 27 touches, 10 tackles and 9 clearances was this week's effort.

Not his first league games. He played 3 last year as a 16 year old, recording a BOG performance with 21 disposals. He’s come out this year and has put another two BOG performances up. How he isn’t talked about in contention for no.1 is baffling considering the work he’s doing against men