Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[Shadow89]

Last week Brisbane played 9 players with less than 50 games, had an average age of 24 years 7 months, and had an average games of 83.1.

Their 10 best players (AF) were Neale, Zorko, Lyons, McLuggage, Witherden, Robinson, Cameron, McStay, Rich and Martin. Of those 10, only McLuggage and Witherden were drafted in the past 4 years, and the rest are all senior players.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9795

Last week Carlton had 12 players with less than 50 games, had an average age of 23 years and 9 months, and an average games of 70.3 (with most of them coming from Murphy who was injured early).

Our 10 best players (AF) were Newman, Mckay, Walsh, Ed Curnow, Kruezer, McGovern, Fisher, Silvagni, Thomas and C Curnow. McKay, Walsh, Fisher, Silvagni and Curnow are all drafted in the past 4 years.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9801

Brisbane relied on senior players - Neale, Zorko, Lyons, Robinson, Cameron, McStay, Rich and Martin - to get them over the line.

Carlton had to rely on Nic Newman, Ed Curnow, Kruezer, McGovern and Daisy.

Which group of senior players is better in your opinion?

The facts are that we routinely field a side significantly younger and less experienced than every other side in the comp (including Brisbane) and have less senior players to rely on than every other side in the AFL, and of the senior players we do have, they arent very good.

I have no issues with the young talent at Carlton, and only a fool would write those kids off. The issues at Carlton are due to a lack of senior bodies, not a lack of talented young kids.

As someone whose partner has had to endure a lot of heartache with the aptly named 'Blues' over the years, what I saw on the weekend was the first time I actually started to lose hope for her, and you guys.

Seeing Walsh burst onto the scene at the start of the year was impressive, and it looked like you were in for a competitive year. After the narrow loss to the Hawks (where you should have won if not for injury and shoddy umpiring) and then the win against the Bulldogs, I doubled down on that thought process, as it looked like things were clicking into gear. Fast forward 3 weeks, and it seems that there is an issue when the heat is put on the kids to perform when challenged.

Whilst I agree with the senior player side of things, I think it's getting to that point where you probably can't talk about the amount of games that certain players have played, when it seems more reflective of system and intent than anything. Our side on the weekend had 9 players under 50 games and 6 players under 10 games. Gold Coast had 11 players under 50 games and don't have one of the best midfielders in the game in Cripps, along with two very potent forwards in McKay and Curnow and a star backman in Weitering. They have around the same percentage (0.4 less) and 3 wins, (which is more than most thought), while you guys have 1 win. The major difference being, Gold Coast is in their first year of their rebuild, you guys are now in your 4th.

Their gameplan is very simple - just put pressure on and try to keep sides under 60-70 points, and keep it congested. That's something that all young players can do, is apply effort with tackling and pressure, but it's not something that seems to be fundamentally instilled in the way you guys play. No matter how many senior bodies you bring in, that lack of effort is where the concern lies.

I hope for everyone's sake that this turns around and we're all jumping at shadows, but another pre-season into some of those young players, and it still doesn't seem like the 'want' or desire is there to perform when others around them are struggling. Cripps is an absolute beast, but it seems if you shut down his clearance work and contested ball numbers, the side just can't exert that same amount of influence themselves. This is what I see as needing to be rectified, and quick. Bringing Kennedy in, just as a bull that can protect Cripps, is a start. Chuck Ed Curnow back in the middle and bring Cuningham back in, and start teaching the smaller players to just crack in and apply pressure at all costs. They did in the Collingwood game, and it was amazing. That needs to be the standard every week, not just games where there's higher stakes like the traditional 'grudge match' against Collingwood.

 

[a mayes ing]

Not sure if Bolton is the right man for the job. Originally thought he was but he has to come under pressure. Yes he has been given a bunch of babies to work with but they have to show effort. PLus he has done some wierd things like why would you put Cripps in the forward line when your midfield is getting destroyed and the ball is continually down in your defence?

 

[doppleganger]

Last year SOS was critisised for drafting and retaining C Grade defenders (Shaw, Mullet, OShea) as back up for injuries to the backline.

This year he's **** for... getting rid of them.

Never change Bigfooty, never change.

LoL, SoS was correctly criticised for picking up a bunch of soft outside flanker types who didn’t fill a role in Carlton’s best 22 and none had any decent leadership traits.

They were absolutely horrendous additions to the list.

The doubters were proven correct when all three were subsequently delisted after just one year on the list.

Carlton were, and still are, crying out for some big bodied midfielders. They don’t need to be A graders, just a couple of work horses to give Cripps a chop out.

SoS inability to recruit decent mature talent has set any ‘rebuild’ back markedly, and if it isn’t corrected is in danger of the Blues having to go back to the well circa Melbourne or Gold Coast, because their talented kids don’t develop as hoped with no quality supporting them.

 

[FairKouta]

I feel sorry for Carlton supporters. My club has been **** for nearly 20 years and went through 4 years of absolute hell because of our own stupidity, and yet supporting Essendon still seems like a delight compared to being a Carlton fan.

This is looking like another failed rebuild. Another year on the bottom. No #1 pick to give them some hope. Dismal times.

No thanks.

 

[RAPPA]

So MoC was asked to give some opinion on why he doesn't rate him, and this is all you have.

Says more about you i think.

Yep, and my opinion - by way of a gif - is exactly what I thought of his opinion. His opinion- that a player is a lazy and soft - is underpinned by purportedly observing 6 games this season to the exclusion of the 44 other games that Curnow has played in his total of 50 games. Says more about how his perception on players is formed. Thanks for your input

 

[RAPPA]

Carlton are much more competitive this year but Curnow can’t get a kick. Meanwhile last year he kicked 34 in a side often non competitive.

Count how many of these are junktime:



But apparently needing to see more before declaring him the messiah is wrong and just part of an anti-Carlton set.

The Blues’ long term prospects hinge on Curnow pulling his finger out and actually learning to impact games regularly.

Lol you are hilarious. Please keep posting.

 

[Happy_Neale]

Because we werent prepared to pay for them (in the event of Trades) and Free Agents dont go to rebuilding sides.

An A grader costs a minimum of a 1st round pick, usually 2. With the list where it was, we didnt have any 1st round picks to spare. As it was, we needed to trade senior out players for extra picks (Gibbs, Henderson, Tuohy, Yarran).

Our list was genuinely rubbish at the end of 2015. We'd blown 8 straight years of drafting (barring Cripps in 2013), and had already leaked what good players we had on the list out the door (Robinson, Garlett, Betts etc).

We were basically razing the joint to the ground and starting from ground zero. We set ourselves 5 years to basically build a totally new list. Come R1 2021, only Cripps and Docherty will remain from our list as it was at the end of 2015.

With respect to Free Agents, blind Freddy could see we had several years of rebuilding ahead of us, and no player wants to come to a side in that position.

That would all make sense if you didn’t then go out and target mature talent with later picks. Traded your first pick this year for Stocker instead of adding another top three pick to the list. Picked up Newman, Fasolo, Smedts, Lang et al who are all gap fillers but simply are not of quality. Brisbane managed to get in Beams, Christensen and Robinson when we were terrible, even Charlie Cameron came into a bottom 4 team.

I disagree that you could not have added higher quality talent over these years instead of targeting discards with late picks. From the outside looking in it appears the ‘hit the draft’ strategy has been half done when you consider how many top 30 picks have been traded for underperforming youth, as well as trading in mature talent who weren’t getting games at their previous clubs.

 

[jenny61_99]

Because we werent prepared to pay for them (in the event of Trades) and Free Agents dont go to rebuilding sides.

An A grader costs a minimum of a 1st round pick, usually 2. With the list where it was, we didnt have any 1st round picks to spare. As it was, we needed to trade senior out players for extra picks (Gibbs, Henderson, Tuohy, Yarran).

Our list was genuinely rubbish at the end of 2015. We'd blown 8 straight years of drafting (barring Cripps in 2013), and had already leaked what good players we had on the list out the door (Robinson, Garlett, Betts etc).

We were basically razing the joint to the ground and starting from ground zero. We set ourselves 5 years to basically build a totally new list. Come R1 2021, only Cripps and Docherty will remain from our list as it was at the end of 2015.

With respect to Free Agents, blind Freddy could see we had several years of rebuilding ahead of us, and no player wants to come to a side in that position.

McLovin did.

 

[00Stinger]

Tom Bugg would be sitting back thinking to himself 'yep, retiring was a better decision than playing with Carlton'

 

[TooBlue14]

I still t think Malthouse absolutely destroyed the list and sent Carlton into the wasteland. Silvagni hasn't build a list to be competitive yet either. Needed to look at a few mature players. Never did. Just GWS castoffs who while were talented wouldn't add much

Mcgovern, Lang, Gibbons, Newman, Kennedy. It’s began to turn. The Adelaide first rounder will be used for another player like papley or similar I reckon. Free agency will be key for Carlton 2020. I don’t expect to see any more losses like north and GWS. Attitude based losses are hopefully past them. Simpson, Plowman nature defenders return helps the backline return to early season form. Jones next week. We are 5 seconds away from being 3-6 instead of 1-8. We are a fair umpire away from being 4-5 and on the edge of finals. We’re not as bad as this thread makes us out to be. Imagine if Curnow was playing like his 2018 form. He’s improving week by week and I feel the knee plus the forward set up is still getting sorted.

I couldn’t give a **** if we finished last and gave up pick 1. We can’t be relying on that to help.

 

[Fadge]

Mcgovern, Lang, Gibbons, Newman, Kennedy. It’s began to turn. The Adelaide first rounder will be used for another player like papley or similar I reckon. Free agency will be key for Carlton 2020. I don’t expect to see any more losses like north and GWS. Attitude based losses are hopefully past them. Simpson, Plowman nature defenders return helps the backline return to early season form. Jones next week. We are 5 seconds away from being 3-6 instead of 1-8. We are a fair umpire away from being 4-5 and on the edge of finals. We’re not as bad as this thread makes us out to be. Imagine if Curnow was playing like his 2018 form. He’s improving week by week and I feel the knee plus the forward set up is still getting sorted.

I couldn’t give a **** if we finished last and gave up pick 1. We can’t be relying on that to help.

This could very well be the most deluded post in this thread, and that is saying something...

 

[TooBlue14]

The fact that nobody took him before pick 19 tells you that he wasn’t rated in the first round. I thought that was obvious.

ZMerrett says hello.

 

[TooBlue14]

This could very well be the most deluded post in this thread, and that is saying something...

Explain the delusion please us Carlton supporters need as much help as yours does by umpires.

 

[TooBlue14]

Stocker was drafted at 19. He was probable rated at around 19 by most of the afl clubs. Perhaps slightly lower or higher. You are putting forward a scenario a number of teams covertly had him much higher, yet unlucky didnt have access to a pick in the 7-18 range. Could this be true? Sure, but the likely hood is extremely low... That you have resorted to the 'its within the realms of possibility' argument shows that your clutching at straws IMO.

Its a bit rough on Blakey, Caldwell, Hately types

Richmond had RCD and Ian Hill higher than Stocker on their draft board.

According to HS both hawks and Richmond wanted Stocker. Richmond’s first pick was at 20 I believe. No?? They could of easily had stocker much higher.

https://outline.com/5naMM8

 

[TooBlue14]

The frustrating thing for Carlton supporters in the Bolton era is that when they're playing their three biggest rivals - Essendon, Collingwood, Richmond - they have always been competitive.

They've beaten the Pies and Dons on multiple occasions and never had a loss that's reached 25 points.

Their record against Richmond is a bit worse but they've pushed Richmond harder at the MCG in the last couple of years than most teams do. Indeed, the highest H&A scores Richmond conceded at the MCG in 2017 & 2018 were against Carlton (Bulldogs equalled them in 2018). Personally speaking, I'm betting the Round 21 clash is going to be another tough struggle.

It just makes their performances this round or against North a couple of weeks back or against Fremantle last year all the more unacceptable. They've shown at the MCG in front of big crowds they can hold their own, but seem to mentally switch off when the expectation and focus is on them.

Someone making sense. I like it. Absolutely agree. When your core strength is Cripps plus about 8 21 and under agers it’s going to be a lot of this early. Until they believe they are AFL footballers and get hardened bodies. Cuningham, McKay, Weitering, Silvagni Curnow (injury holding him back) are our fourth year players and are all having this clever turned bar Curnow whose having a down year. These four will be added to over the next 2-3 years with O’Brien, Dow, Walsh, Fisher, SPS all showing glimpses and all have been down in games. This will happen less and less as the years go on.

I’m not making excuses. I’m hurting like every other Carlton person. We see the light at the end of the tunnel however faint or distant. But IF and WHEN it happens I’m not sure what the world of big footy will look like without the constant boot kicking of people on here. Maybe you’ll move onto north or Sydney.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Someone making sense. I like it. Absolutely agree. When your core strength is Cripps plus about 8 21 and under agers it’s going to be a lot of this early. Until they believe they are AFL footballers and get hardened bodies. Cuningham, McKay, Weitering, Silvagni Curnow (injury holding him back) are our fourth year players and are all having this clever turned bar Curnow whose having a down year. These four will be added to over the next 2-3 years with O’Brien, Dow, Walsh, Fisher, SPS all showing glimpses and all have been down in games. This will happen less and less as the years go on.

I’m not making excuses. I’m hurting like every other Carlton person. We see the light at the end of the tunnel however faint or distant. But IF and WHEN it happens I’m not sure what the world of big footy will look like without the constant boot kicking of people on here. Maybe you’ll move onto north or Sydney.

I'm actually a sick person, i want Carlton to come good, i enjoy our rivalry.

re the boot kicking, we get that no matter what shape we are in.

 

[TooBlue14]

I'm actually a sick person, i want Carlton to come good, i enjoy our rivalry.

re the boot kicking, we get that no matter what shape we are in.

But at least you can defend the boot kicking from a defensible position. Lol.

I do feel that throughout history there is not many examples of teams NOT coming good while stock piling talent or early draft picks. The FA period of the AFL has allowed teams to stay up for longer. But it will also be a time when the fall from grave will be harder. Apart from GWS, Brisbane and Carlton hand a lot of early picks/young talent. I can’t recall the person in the media but they mentioned that they can see 13 AA on carltons future list compared to Brisbane’s 8. But he used it as an excuse to bring Carlton down stating it’s a reason why Carlton coaching group is failing. Typical. But he could be right.

 

[LoungeLizard]

But at least you can defend the boot kicking from a defensible position. Lol.

I do feel that throughout history there is not many examples of teams NOT coming good while stock piling talent or early draft picks. The FA period of the AFL has allowed teams to stay up for longer. But it will also be a time when the fall from grave will be harder. Apart from GWS, Brisbane and Carlton hand a lot of early picks/young talent. I can’t recall the person in the media but they mentioned that they can see 13 AA on carltons future list compared to Brisbane’s 8. But he used it as an excuse to bring Carlton down stating it’s a reason why Carlton coaching group is failing. Typical. But he could be right.

If you have nailed a few gems, then it won't be long before they take off, but going all young could be a disaster also.

You will come good at some stage, but you may have to go back again and again, that's just a wait and see scenario.

 

[Dede]

Correct me if wrong but didn't will setterfield cost a state league player (pick 43 cats) and pick 21? Ouch..

 

[TooBlue14]

Correct me if wrong but didn't will setterfield cost a state league player (pick 43 cats) and pick 21? Ouch..

Future second plus pick 43 state league player (yet to play a game btw). Future second got back to Adelaide from GWS. what’s the problem with setterfield. ACL in 2018. Played 4 games this year suspended for 2 weeks for dangerous tackle. Touted as pick 1 in front of McGrath in 2016. It’s a super win to SOS and his team. Will be a gun.

 

[TooBlue14]

Correct me if wrong but didn't will setterfield cost a state league player (pick 43 cats) and pick 21? Ouch..

Nathan Krueger. Came from state league where he wasn’t doing much to continuing to do nothing. Averaging 5 disposals in Geelong vfl side. Plus a future second who has yet to exist let alone play a game. Could be the next z Merrett or the next Patrick MacArthy.

 

[TooBlue14]

Correct me if wrong but didn't will setterfield cost a state league player (pick 43 cats) and pick 21? Ouch..

Combined AFL averages:
Will setterfield v Nathan Krueger


Ouch...... if you are okay with maths. Just add another 0 to the right hand column of Nathan Krueger’s stats to calculate the full value of the current pick exchange.... ouch indeed.

Setterfield >>>>>> Krueger + Imaginary future player.

 

[Fadge]

Combined AFL averages:
Will setterfield v Nathan Krueger
View attachment 680052

Ouch...... if you are okay with maths. Just add another 0 to the right hand column of Nathan Krueger’s stats to calculate the full value of the current pick exchange.... ouch indeed.

Setterfield >>>>>> Krueger + Imaginary future player.

You forgot to mention Setterfield is also one of the 13 future All-Australians on your list...

 

[evo]

I will cop crap for this but Hipwood>Curnow

Curnow has more upside IMO. He's just in a bit of a slump at the moment.

Unsurprising given many CHF dont blossom until mid 20s, and he is getting terrible service from Carlton players.

 

[Jeffy38!]

Curnow has more upside IMO. He's just in a bit of a slump at the moment.

Unsurprising given many CHF dont blossom until mid 20s, and he is getting terrible service from Carlton players.

He also isn't putting in 100%. There are countless times he has been on the lead and the ball has slapped his hands or he has run under the ball. Needs to work harder.