Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[Dede]

McKay, Curnow, Cripps, Marchbank, Weitering. The spine is sorted.

The mids are Cripps, Walsh, SPS, Fisher, Dow, Setters. Barring Cripps they're all 1st, 2nd or 3rd year players.

Our issues this year have nothing to do with talent, and everything to do with age and experience. We've been playing 12-14 players each week in our best 22 that are on 0-50 games. Thats an insane amount of kids; most sides dont feature more than 4 or 5, and even GCS and Brisbane dont feature more than 7 or 8 (and ususally less).

Brisbane have taken the next step this year due to the support of established players (Neale, Zorko, Rich, Robinson, Lyons etc) which Carlton dont have at present. You shut down Cripps, and the rest of our ball winners are in diapers and are TAC cup kids.

We desperately need to add 2-3 A grade players to support those kids, plus get another year or two into those 12-14 in pre-seasons and games played.

We lack any established players in the 24-28 game age range, and it's killing us at the moment. As a young side we're either falling away late, or blown off the park early.

The trick is going to be getting those A graders to come over the next 2 trade and FA periods.

Sos got rid of rowe and lamb. while not superstars they would of been great cover with Newman and Simpson.jones going down.. so don't pretend like there weren't ways to keep good experienced depth around to protect the youth

And lets not talk about the last 2 draft picks of the draft they were two of the worst picks I've seen in

 

[SickQwon]

So you are saying he is not right, he is playing poorly, yet they don't rest him, is this right?

Nahhhhhhhh im saying he suddenly forgot how to play football and the injury is just a coincidence......

 

[LoungeLizard]

Nahhhhhhhh im saying he suddenly forgot how to play football and the injury is just a coincidence......

Or the injury is an excuse you use to justify how he is playing, because most clubs rest young players who have injuries.

 

[SickQwon]

Or the injury is an excuse you use to justify how he is playing, because most clubs rest young players who have injuries.

Athletes play through niggles all the time, this is objective fact. His discomfort isnt debilitating. The clubs do fitness test to ensure the players have the capacity to play, this doesnt mean pain doesnt exist. Im genuinly embarrassed that you think there are current players league-wide who arent playing through some sort of niggle. And finally, its bone bruising dude. Bone bruising. It heals with time wtf is your problem?

 

[LoungeLizard]

Athletes play through niggles all the time, this is objective fact. His discomfort isnt debilitating. The clubs do fitness test to ensure the players have the capacity to play, this doesnt mean pain doesnt exist. Im genuinly embarrassed that you think there are current players league-wide who arent playing through some sort of niggle. And finally, its bone bruising dude. Bone bruising. It heals with time wtf is your problem?

Haha, you're embarrassed?

If he's right to go, then he is also right to receive criticism for his form.

Haha you're embarrassed, hahahahahaha

 

[SickQwon]

Haha, you're embarrassed?

If he's right to go, then he is also right to receive criticism for his form.

Haha you're embarrassed, hahahahahaha

whatever man, you're lucky your opinions are allowed to be completely ****ing sht.

 

[LoungeLizard]

whatever man, you're lucky your opinions are allowed to be completely ******* sht.

That's about the gist of it though, isn't it?

Anyone with an opinion that you don't like is ****

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

I think it is pretty clear the Brisbane rebuild is well advanced and is certainly light years ahead of where Carlton is.

Brisbane's bunch of kids are playing terrific footy. McCluggage and Berry are fun to watch as a neutral.

Theoretically with all its high end draft picks and those SOS coaxed from GWS, Carlton should have the talent and experience base to compete as a viable team. Simply they are not.

The Coach no doubt will cop a lot of the blame and SOS his share as well (did they draft the right kids?), but it would seem Carlton's lack of viability as a competitive Club is more deep seated.

In short, Brisbane has a bright future, while Carlton is clinging to the hope it has a future.

 

[Malifice]

Sos got rid of rowe and lamb. while not superstars they would of been great cover with Newman and Simpson.jones going down.. so don't pretend like there weren't ways to keep good experienced depth around to protect the youth

Last year SOS was critisised for drafting and retaining C Grade defenders (Shaw, Mullet, OShea) as back up for injuries to the backline.

This year he's shit for... getting rid of them.

Never change Bigfooty, never change.

 

[Malifice]

Theoretically with all its high end draft picks and those SOS coaxed from GWS, Carlton should have the talent and experience base to compete as a viable team. Simply they are not.

Last week Brisbane played 9 players with less than 50 games, had an average age of 24 years 7 months, and had an average games of 83.1.

Their 10 best players (AF) were Neale, Zorko, Lyons, McLuggage, Witherden, Robinson, Cameron, McStay, Rich and Martin. Of those 10, only McLuggage and Witherden were drafted in the past 4 years, and the rest are all senior players.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9795

Last week Carlton had 12 players with less than 50 games, had an average age of 23 years and 9 months, and an average games of 70.3 (with most of them coming from Murphy who was injured early).

Our 10 best players (AF) were Newman, Mckay, Walsh, Ed Curnow, Kruezer, McGovern, Fisher, Silvagni, Thomas and C Curnow. McKay, Walsh, Fisher, Silvagni and Curnow are all drafted in the past 4 years.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9801

Brisbane relied on senior players - Neale, Zorko, Lyons, Robinson, Cameron, McStay, Rich and Martin - to get them over the line.

Carlton had to rely on Nic Newman, Ed Curnow, Kruezer, McGovern and Daisy.

Which group of senior players is better in your opinion?

The facts are that we routinely field a side significantly younger and less experienced than every other side in the comp (including Brisbane) and have less senior players to rely on than every other side in the AFL, and of the senior players we do have, they arent very good.

I have no issues with the young talent at Carlton, and only a fool would write those kids off. The issues at Carlton are due to a lack of senior bodies, not a lack of talented young kids.

 

[Gunf]

I will cop crap for this but Hipwood>Curnow

 

[cheekyLionsFan]

I will cop crap for this but Hipwood>Curnow

I agree with this

 

[ManOfClay]

I will cop crap for this but Hipwood>Curnow

It’s not a question unless you are this guy

Lol. Hipwood is nowhere near at Curnow's level (right now)
The bias in this thread by homie fans is embarassing

 

[Tom14]

Last week Brisbane played 9 players with less than 50 games, had an average age of 24 years 7 months, and had an average games of 83.1.

Their 10 best players (AF) were Neale, Zorko, Lyons, McLuggage, Witherden, Robinson, Cameron, McStay, Rich and Martin. Of those 10, only McLuggage and Witherden were drafted in the past 4 years, and the rest are all senior players.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9795

Last week Carlton had 12 players with less than 50 games, had an average age of 23 years and 9 months, and an average games of 70.3 (with most of them coming from Murphy who was injured early).

Our 10 best players (AF) were Newman, Mckay, Walsh, Ed Curnow, Kruezer, McGovern, Fisher, Silvagni, Thomas and C Curnow. McKay, Walsh, Fisher, Silvagni and Curnow are all drafted in the past 4 years.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9801

Brisbane relied on senior players - Neale, Zorko, Lyons, Robinson, Cameron, McStay, Rich and Martin - to get them over the line.

Carlton had to rely on Nic Newman, Ed Curnow, Kruezer, McGovern and Daisy.

Which group of senior players is better in your opinion?

The facts are that we routinely field a side significantly younger and less experienced than every other side in the comp (including Brisbane) and have less senior players to rely on than every other side in the AFL, and of the senior players we do have, they arent very good.

I have no issues with the young talent at Carlton, and only a fool would write those kids off. The issues at Carlton are due to a lack of senior bodies, not a lack of talented young kids.

FWIW I don't disagree with the premise of your post re the young talent (other than the fact that AF isn't the most useful stat). Worth noting though that of that list of 'senior players' Neale is 25, Lyons is 26 and McStay is 23/24 - not exactly on the down part of their career either.

Also worth noting is that of that list only 2 players were drafted by Brisbane (Rich, McStay) and one was traded in as a zone concession from GC (Zorko) - the rest were acquired in trades or as DFA.

Just goes to show that we have had better luck with mature age pickups and have also deliberately tried to broaden the age profile of the list by targeting players between ages 23-27 - every single player we brought in last off-season fit that age group (Neale, McCarthy, Adams, Lyons) and Charlie Cameron qualified the year before.

 

[Happy_Neale]

Last week Brisbane played 9 players with less than 50 games, had an average age of 24 years 7 months, and had an average games of 83.1.

Their 10 best players (AF) were Neale, Zorko, Lyons, McLuggage, Witherden, Robinson, Cameron, McStay, Rich and Martin. Of those 10, only McLuggage and Witherden were drafted in the past 4 years, and the rest are all senior players.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9795

Last week Carlton had 12 players with less than 50 games, had an average age of 23 years and 9 months, and an average games of 70.3 (with most of them coming from Murphy who was injured early).

Our 10 best players (AF) were Newman, Mckay, Walsh, Ed Curnow, Kruezer, McGovern, Fisher, Silvagni, Thomas and C Curnow. McKay, Walsh, Fisher, Silvagni and Curnow are all drafted in the past 4 years.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9801

Brisbane relied on senior players - Neale, Zorko, Lyons, Robinson, Cameron, McStay, Rich and Martin - to get them over the line.

Carlton had to rely on Nic Newman, Ed Curnow, Kruezer, McGovern and Daisy.

Which group of senior players is better in your opinion?

The facts are that we routinely field a side significantly younger and less experienced than every other side in the comp (including Brisbane) and have less senior players to rely on than every other side in the AFL, and of the senior players we do have, they arent very good.

I have no issues with the young talent at Carlton, and only a fool would write those kids off. The issues at Carlton are due to a lack of senior bodies, not a lack of talented young kids.

Begs the question why Carlton don't go after more quality mature talent to protect the kids a bit. The difference between acquisitions of Brisbane vs. those of Carlton is similar in number but the difference in quality is noticeable. Surely Carlton are a big enough club to attract a few decent players?

 

[Malifice]

FWIW I don't disagree with the premise of your post re the young talent (other than the fact that AF isn't the most useful stat). Worth noting though that of that list of 'senior players' Neale is 25, Lyons is 26 and McStay is 23/24 - not exactly on the down part of their career either.

The point was that you guys have more senior (defined as 24 years old+/ 6 years in the system+/100+ games) players than us, and they're of a better quality, and they're the main reason you've won more games than us this year.

We really lack players in that 24+ demographic that are any good.

Also worth noting is that of that list only 2 players were drafted by Brisbane (Rich, McStay) and one was traded in as a zone concession from GC (Zorko) - the rest were acquired in trades or as DFA.

I agree we (Carlton) need to get in some experienced players in as trades and F/A. To the extent that I want us to trade out of this years (and next years) drafts entirely to get them in.

We've been trying to get them in (Shiel, Rockliff etc) but they've gone elsewhere.

Just goes to show that we have had better luck with mature age pickups and have also deliberately tried to broaden the age profile of the list by targeting players between ages 23-27 - every single player we brought in last off-season fit that age group (Neale, McCarthy, Adams, Lyons) and Charlie Cameron qualified the year before.

Our plan is to do the same; it was designed to be in two stages:

Phase 1: A 3 year (66 game) rebuild of the list via exclusively maximising our presence in the early part of the draft, and bringing in as many quality kids (18-21) as we could over that period, focussing on talls first.

Phase 1 is now complete. We used 9 x 1st round picks over that time period (Wietering, Curnow, Mckay, Cuningham, SPS, Dow, Obrien, Walsh, Stocker), and brought in a lot of quality players with second round picks (Marchbank, Plowman, Setterfield, Kennedy, McGovern, Fisher). We couldnt have gone any harder at the draft if we tried.

In addition we used this 3 years to bank Salary cap space for the next phase.

Phase 2: Switching to a focus on Trades and F/A to supplement the list of kids aquired in Phase 1.

We're now in Phase 2, but the trick is getting those players to agree to come. We desperately need some quality senior (100+ game) talent.

 

[Malifice]

Begs the question why Carlton don't go after more quality mature talent to protect the kids a bit.?

Because we werent prepared to pay for them (in the event of Trades) and Free Agents dont go to rebuilding sides.

An A grader costs a minimum of a 1st round pick, usually 2. With the list where it was, we didnt have any 1st round picks to spare. As it was, we needed to trade senior out players for extra picks (Gibbs, Henderson, Tuohy, Yarran).

Our list was genuinely rubbish at the end of 2015. We'd blown 8 straight years of drafting (barring Cripps in 2013), and had already leaked what good players we had on the list out the door (Robinson, Garlett, Betts etc).

We were basically razing the joint to the ground and starting from ground zero. We set ourselves 5 years to basically build a totally new list. Come R1 2021, only Cripps and Docherty will remain from our list as it was at the end of 2015.

With respect to Free Agents, blind Freddy could see we had several years of rebuilding ahead of us, and no player wants to come to a side in that position.

 

[Trucker Tiger]

I will cop crap for this but Hipwood>Curnow

Hipwood > C.Curnow+E.Curnow

 

[Dede]

Last year SOS was critisised for drafting and retaining C Grade defenders (Shaw, Mullet, OShea) as back up for injuries to the backline.

This year he's **** for... getting rid of them.

Never change Bigfooty, never change.

Huh... if you can't difference between the names I listed and the ones you did I pity you mateo.

 

[Jeffy38!]

So the only thing you have in common with the 6ers is that they were once crap for 4 years, and Carlton havd been crap for 4 years (actually longer)?

Reminds me of the thread 'Carlton 2012 = Geelong 2006'. Remember that one?

No I don't. Perhaps you have an axe to grind then. My point is like the 6ers we have been down the bottom collecting talent and then the next step is to trade or recruit for quality established middle aged players. Which is what the 6ers did and is what we will do.

 

[Jeffy38!]

I wouldn't get too concerned about Carlton's progress quite yet.

Brisbane's 2018 season
LLLLLLLLWLLLLWWWLLLLWL
Losses by 93, 34 and 26 points their biggest losses in the first nine rounds.

Carlton 2019 season
LLLLWLLLL
Losses by 93, 58 and 44 points their biggest losses in the first nine rounds.

I appreciate your honesty and integrity. I am stoked that the lions have established a good core of players to build around and you will soon see the fruits of their labours.

 

[SonnyBoy1]

Last week Brisbane played 9 players with less than 50 games, had an average age of 24 years 7 months, and had an average games of 83.1.

Their 10 best players (AF) were Neale, Zorko, Lyons, McLuggage, Witherden, Robinson, Cameron, McStay, Rich and Martin. Of those 10, only McLuggage and Witherden were drafted in the past 4 years, and the rest are all senior players.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9795

Last week Carlton had 12 players with less than 50 games, had an average age of 23 years and 9 months, and an average games of 70.3 (with most of them coming from Murphy who was injured early).

Our 10 best players (AF) were Newman, Mckay, Walsh, Ed Curnow, Kruezer, McGovern, Fisher, Silvagni, Thomas and C Curnow. McKay, Walsh, Fisher, Silvagni and Curnow are all drafted in the past 4 years.

And Brisbane beat Adelaide and Carlton lost to GWS by nearly 100 points. Wish Brisbane played a bunch of overrated youngsters instead of winning games

 

[SonnyBoy1]

Carlton needs to start being compared to Gold coast instead of Brisbane, Both in a similar position Suns slightly ahead though.

 

[sosos]

Just have to stay the course. It's not easy but there's no other way.

Don't think the coach and the match committee have covered themselves in glory recently, though I am backing the list build.

And the club.

 

[Shadow89]

Carlton needs to start being compared to Gold coast instead of Brisbane, Both in a similar position Suns slightly ahead though.

I think Carlton's list is ahead, I just think Gold Coast's 'we want to win' culture is probably a bit further along than Carlton at the moment...which is concerning