Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[RAPPA]

Bolton is stuck with the list he currently has for the year, so the only thing that will impact the players he has at his disposal is injuries. Moving him on during the season won’t achieve anything. The assistants at Carlton aren’t much chop and is probably one of the most critical parts of the club that needs an overhaul in the preseason.
The midfield is being held up by one A-grader in Cripps who is 24, and he is supported by 4 players aged 18-21. That midfield’s age demographic is not going to win many games. It was hoped Murphy would be thrown in there but he’s well past his days in the midfield. Curnow is for whatever reason being used as a forward. In short, there’s sweet FA mature bodies in the midfield. Docherry was being trialed in the midfield during the preseason before he did his first knee. Who knows how his return will go but there’s no doubt he will take some time to adjust and may not be his same damaging self.
There is absolutely no question that Brisbane is ahead of Carlton. There is also no doubt that 1-8 was not anticipated.
Unless there are further multiple beltings in the year, 2020 will be make or break for Bolton. That unfairly lumps all responsibility upon Bolton’s shoulders when a number of individuals are responsible for what he has to play with. But that’s the reality. The club will throw the kitchen sink at probably two good mature midfielders - not sure who is available but those holes need filling. They’ll also need to a good second ruckman to cover for Kreuzer (and support De Koning in his development) who is both fundamentally important to how we square up - especially given the gulf between he and the current mature rucks - but can’t be relied upon for a full season given his body.
So yep - there’s a bit ahead of the club. But no one will be moved on until after the end of this season at the earliest and I’ll reserve my position until then.

 

[ManOfClay]

So you’re basing how talented he is off 6 games this season? That’s a small sample size if I’ve ever seen one.

2018: 13.8 disposals a game, 6.2 marks a game (1.9 contested ), 1.7 goals a game (34 for the year)
2017: 14.1 disposals a game, 5.7 marks a game (1.7 contested), 0.9 goals a game (20 for the year)

Explain to me how that is a young key forward who isn’t extremely talented and is only athletic.

I’d say his stats last year were fairly impressive considering he was playing for one of the worst teams ever right at the bottom for inside 50s.

Sure. If you set a low bar. Always excuses for Carlton.

 

[PP34]

Sure. If you set a low bar. Always excuses for Carlton.

Comparable stats to any good young key forward really.

But low bar you reckon....

Excuses? So a bloke has a shit few games and suddenly he’s no good.

**** me you’re full of it. Don’t know why I bother responding to your posts.

Good luck with your sad posting about young Carlton players.

 

[Flip Side]

I keep hearing the phrase "cut too hard" being bandied about in relation to the way the Carlton list has been pruned back and refilled.

Even though I have been calling for a Ground Zero approach to the list for many years, based on the number of young physically undeveloped players being thrown in the deep end of senior footy right now, I'm starting to believe we did go a little too hard too early.

I also think we have been our own worst enemy at times in regards to who we flung and why, who we knocked back from other clubs and the heavy misses with mature age rookies etc.

As part of the Gibbs trade, Jarryd Lyons was offered to us and we knocked him back (there is another school of thought who believe he didn't want to come to us) yet he is playing some solid footy for the Lions in their midfield right now (after a season with the Suns) averaging 21 disposals a game. Lyons and an early first round pick for Gibbs the first time around would of been a good deal for us because we would have picked up a readymade senior player plus the draftee should be approaching 80-100 games now. Instead, SOS stood on principle and waited till the year after to offload Gibbs.
Too hard too quick ………….. with hindsight on my side, yeah it probably has been but on the flipside, the sooner you start the sooner you finish.

!

I find this observation from a blues supporter really interesting.

At the time I felt that SOS rejected the trade on ego rather than strategy (and the front ended contract Gibbs was on probably played a big part too). Not saying the blues should have accepted Lyons, but had they taken the Crows first rounder they could have had Powell-Pepper or Jarrod Berry as a bash brother taking some heat off Cripps. Giving him support had to be a priority in my mind. Whether they took an additional 2nd rounder or Lyons or something else could be argued further.

I felt SOS lost sight of these possibilities based on winning the Gibbs trade in isolation. A year on and the trade happens, and it would be fair to say it looks like he is ahead in the Gibbs trade, but what was lost was the time and experience into a big mid that would have 50 games by now. In a sense I think both clubs lost from that trade not getting done.

 

[PP34]

I find this observation from a blues supporter really interesting.

At the time I felt that SOS rejected the trade on ego rather than strategy (and the front ended contract Gibbs was on probably played a big part too). Not saying the blues should have accepted Lyons, but had they taken the Crows first rounder they could have had Powell-Pepper or Jarrod Berry as a bash brother taking some heat off Cripps. Giving him support had to be a priority in my mind. Whether they took an additional 2nd rounder or Lyons or something else could be argued further.

I felt SOS lost sight of these possibilities based on winning the Gibbs trade in isolation. A year on and the trade happens, and it would be fair to say it looks like he is ahead in the Gibbs trade, but what was lost was the time and experience into a big mid that would have 50 games by now. In a sense I think both clubs lost from that trade not getting done.

Both years Gibbs was up for trade I said it would hurt us even if we won the trade.

Gibbs hasn’t been playing amazing footy as of late but he was a strong senior body who is obviously talented. He hasn’t been replaced or even close to it. That’s absolutely an area where SOS has come up short.

I feel like if our midfield right now had a few more experienced players to help out Cripps and the youngsters we’d be sitting on a few more wins and I doubt we’d have played so deplorably against GWS and North. In both those games stronger midfielders bullied us. But the young guys also put in shocking efforts basically from the moment both those sides started to kick a few goals. With older players I don’t think you get that as much.

 

[Milux]

I'm all for sinking the boot in as I know when we were down not many clubs from the Vic state were any better. But cripps is an absolute gun and would be picked top 2 if not first at every club in the land. Curnow is stupidly talented but cant get the ball at the moment. They are just facts and anyone arguing that are clueless.

 

[ManOfClay]

I'

Curnow is stupidly talented but cant get the ball at the moment. They are just facts and anyone arguing that are clueless.

Your opinion does not equal fact. My observations are Curnow is lazy, soft, and hasn’t shown nearly as much as Blues fans would tell all and sundry.

He was getting the ball earlier in the year, just burning it

 

[Tandy]

The list in fairly crap. Those who aren't crap have potential and show it in patches only.
Cripps and 2 or so others would be the only exception to that.

 

[Milux]

Your opinion does not equal fact. My observations are Curnow is lazy, soft, and hasn’t shown nearly as much as Blues fans would tell all and sundry.

He was getting the ball earlier in the year, just burning it

Keep telling yourself that.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Both years Gibbs was up for trade I said it would hurt us even if we won the trade.

Gibbs hasn’t been playing amazing footy as of late but he was a strong senior body who is obviously talented. He hasn’t been replaced or even close to it. That’s absolutely an area where SOS has come up short.

I feel like if our midfield right now had a few more experienced players to help out Cripps and the youngsters we’d be sitting on a few more wins and I doubt we’d have played so deplorably against GWS and North. In both those games stronger midfielders bullied us. But the young guys also put in shocking efforts basically from the moment both those sides started to kick a few goals. With older players I don’t think you get that as much.

Agree on the lack of more mature midfielders

Who fits that bill who may be up for trade at the end of the year?

 

[Gavin Excell]

Also far from me to bring a hint of positivity to the debate but I think McKay has been a good story for Carlton this year.

Can be a great long term player to build a forward line around

 

[Thrawn]

You look at the likes of Thomas, Keizer, Murphy etc and you aren't instilled with a desire to follow them into battle. You don't sit there and watch the Blues play thinking 'great leadership'. You don't look at their young talented draft picks and see very clear, linear development paths outside of a few.

Haha. What?

Why would you lump in a lionheart like Kreuzer with those names? A fully fit Kreuzer is a godsend and makes our team walk taller for it. His first half vs Hawthorn was one of the primary reasons why we played so well and had the lead that we did, before he got injured.

 

[Nunez]

Haha. What?

Why would you lump in a lionheart like Kreuzer with those names? A fully fit Kreuzer is a godsend and makes our team walk taller for it. His first half vs Hawthorn was one of the primary reasons why we played so well and had the lead that we did, before he got injured.

Stupid autocorrect.

Although if Keizer Soze was playing for the Blues your lot would be flag favourites.

I'll take your word for it as you've no doubt seen more Blues games than I have. With that said, Kreuzer falls into the 'cant get on the park' category and has his whole career. Your club shouldn't be expecting they can rely on him to lead when he can barely get on the field to play.

 

[Thrawn]

Stupid autocorrect.

Although if Keizer Soze was playing for the Blues your lot would be flag favourites.

I'll take your word for it as you've no doubt seen more Blues games than I have. With that said, Kreuzer falls into the 'cant get on the park' category and has his whole career. Your club shouldn't be expecting they can rely on him to lead when he can barely get on the field to play.

"Can't get on the park" isn't the same thing as "non-inspirational", though. Yes we shouldn't be expecting big things but he's still pretty important to us. Should've got AA ruck ahead of Ryder a couple of years back... one of his very few relatively injury free years sadly.

 

[boncer34]

"Can't get on the park" isn't the same thing as "non-inspirational", though. Yes we shouldn't be expecting big things but he's still pretty important to us. Should've got AA ruck ahead of Ryder a couple of years back... one of his very few relatively injury free years sadly.

Think from memory the only significant area Ryder had him was hitouts.

Kreuzer did more of everything else, was truly bizarre not picking him.

 

[augie]

Half baked rebuild because we traded our pick for a kid we liked and another draft pick which will be a young kid.

Calling it a half baked rebuild is certainly a strange way of seeing it.

It is almost the opposite of a half baked rebuild. It is a scorched earth rebuild, all youth and with no attention, or very poor attention, to mature age players. So you can be criticized for the structure of the re build, but not the fact that it is a full blown rebuild.

I think the most valid criticism is the mature agers. I can't think of another club with a worse record over the past 4 or 5 years on this front. The GWS experiment has been a disaster. I dont think there is a cohort with a lower success rate than former high draft picks who didn't make it at their first club, and the blues have dived into this pool.

 

[RAPPA]

Stupid autocorrect.

Although if Keizer Soze was playing for the Blues your lot would be flag favourites.

I'll take your word for it as you've no doubt seen more Blues games than I have. With that said, Kreuzer falls into the 'cant get on the park' category and has his whole career. Your club shouldn't be expecting they can rely on him to lead when he can barely get on the field to play.

If Keizer Soze was playing, we wouldn’t know until the end of the game

 

[RAPPA]

Your opinion does not equal fact. My observations are Curnow is lazy, soft, and hasn’t shown nearly as much as Blues fans would tell all and sundry.

He was getting the ball earlier in the year, just burning it

 

[LoungeLizard]

View attachment 678306

So MoC was asked to give some opinion on why he doesn't rate him, and this is all you have.

Says more about you i think.

 

[Baird]

Why are Brisbane top 4 but Carlton still trash?

They started at the same place in 2015

 

[ManOfClay]

So MoC was asked to give some opinion on why he doesn't rate him, and this is all you have.

Says more about you i think.

Carlton are much more competitive this year but Curnow can’t get a kick. Meanwhile last year he kicked 34 in a side often non competitive.

Count how many of these are junktime:



But apparently needing to see more before declaring him the messiah is wrong and just part of an anti-Carlton set.

The Blues’ long term prospects hinge on Curnow pulling his finger out and actually learning to impact games regularly.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Carlton are much more competitive this year but Curnow can’t get a kick. Meanwhile last year he kicked 34 in a side often non competitive.

Count how many of these are junktime:



But apparently needing to see more before declaring him the messiah is wrong and just part of an anti-Carlton set.

The Blues’ long term prospects hinge on Curnow pulling his finger out and actually learning to impact games regularly.

Yep, and i have noticed a few saying he is injured, then wtf is he playing if he is injured?

 

[SickQwon]

Yep, and i have noticed a few saying he is injured, then wtf is he playing if he is injured?

It's only bone bruising, he missed some weeks. At the moment, he can still play with some minor hinderance. It can take up to a month or two to fully recover. Bont was injured last year but was still playing and it obviously affected his performences, don't recall people calling him lazy.

 

[Malifice]

Also far from me to bring a hint of positivity to the debate but I think McKay has been a good story for Carlton this year.

Can be a great long term player to build a forward line around

McKay, Curnow, Cripps, Marchbank, Weitering. The spine is sorted.

The mids are Cripps, Walsh, SPS, Fisher, Dow, Setters. Barring Cripps they're all 1st, 2nd or 3rd year players.

Our issues this year have nothing to do with talent, and everything to do with age and experience. We've been playing 12-14 players each week in our best 22 that are on 0-50 games. Thats an insane amount of kids; most sides dont feature more than 4 or 5, and even GCS and Brisbane dont feature more than 7 or 8 (and ususally less).

Brisbane have taken the next step this year due to the support of established players (Neale, Zorko, Rich, Robinson, Lyons etc) which Carlton dont have at present. You shut down Cripps, and the rest of our ball winners are in diapers and are TAC cup kids.

We desperately need to add 2-3 A grade players to support those kids, plus get another year or two into those 12-14 in pre-seasons and games played.

We lack any established players in the 24-28 game age range, and it's killing us at the moment. As a young side we're either falling away late, or blown off the park early.

The trick is going to be getting those A graders to come over the next 2 trade and FA periods.

 

[LoungeLizard]

It's only bone bruising, he missed some weeks. At the moment, he can still play with some minor hinderance. It can take up to a month or two to fully recover. Bont was injured last year but was still playing and it obviously affected his performences, don't recall people calling him lazy.

So you are saying he is not right, he is playing poorly, yet they don't rest him, is this right?