Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[a mayes ing]

Just to get back to the Brisbane/Carlton comparison, I thought it worth comparing the median age and games played of the teams, year by year. I've used round 1 games each season as a proxy - as close to best 22 as likely to be seen

2019:
Brisbane age = 24yr 258days, 81.5 games
Carlton age = 23yrs 10 days, 40 games

2018:
Brisbane age = 23yr, 288 days, 67.5 games
Carlton age = 23yr, 55 days, 54.5 games

2017:
Brisbane age = 22yr 125 days, 69.5 games
Carlton age = 24yr 124 days, 72 games

2016:
Brisbane age = 24yr 15 days 51 games
Carlton age = 26yr 103 days 57.5 games

2015:
Brisbane age = 24yr 115 days, 65 games
Carlton age = 26yr 25 days, 74 games

For a comparison: Here's the current top 4 and their median age and games played in round 1:
Geelong 26yrs 103 days / 62.5 games. Collingwood 26 yrs 23 days / 85 games. GWS 25 yrs 55 days / 72 games. Richmond 26 yrs 151 days / 113 games. And some bottom teams: St Kilda 24 125 days / 64.5 games. Gold Coast 23 yr 168 days / 61 games

I've said it before in this thread, but the position Carlton started from was perhaps the worst in recent history. We were last in 2015 with a list in its absolute prime, and very few solid calibre youngsters. The real apocalypse wasn't 2015 - it was always going to be 2018, when Gibbs, Murphy, Kreuzer, etc all started turning 30.That's when we made a committment to rebuilding the list over 3 years. Our list has got younger and younger each year.

Day 1 for Carlton was really the start of this season. This is the youngest we'll be - our round 1 squad this year featured 14 players aged 24 or younger. Of those 12 were picked in the top 20 of the draft. That's the core we're building around, who will get older, more experienced and better. That's not saying it'll lead to anything. But its a core that it is possible to build around - albeit an insanely young one compared to the rest of the league.

Brisbane, on the other hand, probably had their 'day 1' in 2016 - that's when their average games played stopped falling, and starting rising again, as they started to get their 'core' together, and they've grown in age and experience since - up to this year, when their profile starts to look pretty close to that of a contender - and next year, they'll probably be right there.

*** all medians calculated manually using AFL tables and in a bit of a rush - I may have made some errors (particularly on the days)

Take out Hodgy and we would be a fair bit younger l reckon.
You just need to recruit better, and maybe whoever is pitching to your prospective players needs to stop and get someone better. You also need to trade fairly. You probably could have had some pretty good players if you had given up some decent draft pics but you wanted to keep them for kids. I reckon u could have got Shiel if you did something with your pick 1 for example

 

[btdg]

Well the stats were good but then the inferences from the stats were extremely dodgy and basically just long suffering Carlton fan propaganda and a lot of hindsight justification.

Day 1 of your rebuild was when you brought Bolton in and said you were going to rebuild, you can't just ignore 3 years of building just because you didn't have an ideal starting position. This may come as a surprise but every team that does a full rebuild has a completely stuffed up list. Eg Richmond, Melbourne, Brisbane at various points over the last decade or so. A median age of 23 isn't even that young, we've seen far younger sides take the field in the 2010s. We've also seen numerous teams improve more in 1 preseason than Carlton has in 4 of them.

Selling this idea that rebuilding is an impossible task is just pure nonsense. The biggest thing the whole Carlton club lacks, from the fans to the players is an honest desire and expectation of winning every time they take the field. That's the cultural change that needs to happen.

Brisbane aren't better than Carlton because they are older its because their recruiting absolutely craps all over Carlton's over a period of time where both teams have had similar picks and opportunities (Carlton actually have had a bit more but similar enough).

Sorry, I should have clarified. We've been 'rebuilding' the list for 3 years. We now have the 'core' that will take us forward and have essentially finished 'rebuilding', and can start thinking about contending, ladder positions, etc, while shifting our recruiting to adding mature players, plugging gaps, and building around that core.

The big thing in those stats, and again, what non-Carlton people continue to miss, is that from where we were in 2015 things were ALWAYS going to get a whole lot worse (worse even than 18th) before they got better. Our list was just in that terrible shape: the middle aged guys had walked out or quit (thanks Malthouse) in the previous 2-3 years, the core players were 28-30 (and therefore about to decline/retire) and there were basically zero young guys (Cripps and Docherty, with the latter unfortunately injured the past 2 years). We were last, AND getting worse. We rebounded in 2016 and 2017, but that was more about getting players healthy and focused once Malthouse was purged. But we were always going to get a lot worse.

We did have a big intake of young guys in 2015 - Curnow, Weitering, McKay, Silvagni, Cuningham. All somewhere between solid to excellent prospects. But unfortunately, they're only still 21-22 years old. 2019 is probably the first year they can make a solid contribution (as in the case of McKay, Silvagni, Cuningham). They won't hit their peak and start providing consistently good performances for another year or two. The other young guys are a year or two behind them.

In the mean-time, the guys who have been good for us recently are tailing off. Murphy, Kreuzer, Thomas, Simpson, Ed Curnow... all falling away. They were 27-30 in 2015. They're now basically washed up.

As for a median age of 23 not being that young... when? Other than expansion teams, which teams have been 'far younger' in the 2010s? I'm genuinely curious, because I can't see any teams that fit that description (but happy to be proven wrong).

Here's some I thought might be worth looking at. Again, based on round 1 teams (a proxy for 'full strength best 22').
- Melbourne 2012 (their 2 win season): Median age 24yrs 151 days. Median games 73
- St Kilda 2013: Median age 23 yrs 46 days. Median games 40.5
Western Bulldogs 2012: Median age 24 yrs 165 days. Median games=49. In 2013 their team had a higher median age, but median games of 39 (the lowest I could find)
- Brisbane Lions 2014 (post go home 5): Median Age 23 yrs 195 games. Median games = 49
- Richmond 2010 (last year of their 'rebuild' imo): Median age 23yrs 11 games. Median games 48.5

Again, I may have made some errors (particularly on the days because AFL tables is a bit funny sometimes). But other than expansion teams, I can't see ANY evidence that there have been teams 'far younger' than Carlton are currently playing.

Not saying that is good, either. I've argued on the Carlton board about how poorly we have added mature players and used late/rookie picks the last few years.

But that's where we are at. Our team right now is

 

[btdg]

Take out Hodgy and we would be a fair bit younger l reckon.
You just need to recruit better, and maybe whoever is pitching to your prospective players needs to stop and get someone better. You also need to trade fairly. You probably could have had some pretty good players if you had given up some decent draft pics but you wanted to keep them for kids. I reckon u could have got Shiel if you did something with your pick 1 for example

I'm using median age and games precisely for that reason. It uses the mid-point players in the team to avoid being dragged up (or down) by outliers such as Hodge, Simpson, Walsh, etc.

It gives a pretty good estimate of the state of the team. Half the players are younger and half are older than that. Get up to around 26 and its likely that most of your team are in their primes = contender. Get below 24 and it means that more than half of your team are still young/developing = struggling.

Brisbane should hit the 25 yr / 75 game mark next year which puts them at the 'young' end of the contender range. Interesting that for various reasons GWS are still 'young' for a contending team too. We are 2 years off that level (if the core stays around and keeps developing, and we add some veterans). We're 3-4 years off if a few things go wrong.

We could have got some players by handing off draft picks. Are we better off with Walsh for 12 years or Shiel for 6? Would we have been better keeping Gibbs for 3-4 years, or having (essentially) O'Brien, Kennedy, McGovern and Tom De Koning for 8-10 years? I dunno. You could certainly make a case.

But that's where Carlton are at.

 

[bungalow_bill]

I will cop crap for this but Hipwood>Curnow

Why would think many would agree. Hipwood is quietly having a break out season - finally starting to clunk those contested marks. Just needs to tidy up his goal kicking.

Another note.sos trading out pick 15 for marchbank who wouldn't be best 22 any other club. that 2017 draft has killed Carlton and hurt the rebuild.. didn't the lions end up with that cats pick and take Bailey. Full circle

Yes drafted Zac Bailey with pick 15

 

[StevoJenkins]

The big thing in those stats, and again, what non-Carlton people continue to miss, is that from where we were in 2015 things were ALWAYS going to get a whole lot worse (worse even than 18th) before they got better.

No, it’s not that we don’t get it, it’s you guys trying to find any excuse for the state of your club is what we don’t get. We’ve received so many excuses that it was pathetic, it still is.

Your club in 2015 didn’t know they were going to get worse, otherwise the club management wouldn’t think they are close to finishing their rebuild now. It’s just not happening. If they knew they were going to get worse, then they would pickup players like Goddard and Barlow to make sure the kids would get protected and obtain experience from them. It didn’t happen, which is a massive part of why Carlton is in the shitter, but Carlton management don’t seem to see it and neither can the supporters apparently.

 

[btdg]

No, it’s not that we don’t get it, it’s you guys trying to find any excuse for the state of your club is what we don’t get. We’ve received so many excuses that it was pathetic, it still is.

Your club in 2015 didn’t know they were going to get worse, otherwise the club management wouldn’t think they are close to finishing their rebuild now. It’s just not happening. If they knew they were going to get worse, then they would pickup players like Goddard and Barlow to make sure the kids would get protected and obtain experience from them. It didn’t happen, which is a massive part of why Carlton is in the shitter, but Carlton management don’t seem to see it and neither can the supporters apparently.

I’m not making excuses, just explaining the reality. Carlton committed to a particular path and here is the result. This thread is about the rebuild and prospects for the future, and that’s where Carlton is - for various reasons, we have an exceptionally young team by AFL standards.

But to show you the other side, I’ll throw you a stat the explains quite clearly why we are currently last.

In the last 4 drafts we have recruited 24 players who would currently be aged 23 to 28. Of those 24, only 5 are currently best 22.

In the same time frame we have used 19 late draft and rookie picks. Only 1 (actually probably 2 with Silvagni’s recent form) is currently best 22. Note some players are in both categories (age 23+ and late picks).

That’s arguably the reason we are terrible in the present. We have added a bunch of players for the ‘now’ and they haven’t worked out. Some have had injuries, bad luck, others were terrible and indefensible long shots. We missed on a few players we really coveted too - Devon smith and Dylan Shiel in particular who ditched us at the 11th hour, and that is a killer - but there’s nothing else we could have done in those cases.

Carlton supporters can separate that from the ‘rebuild’ - putting together the core that will take us forward for the next decade. But it’s killed us in the present, and I’m open about that (and have copped flack on the Carlton board for mentioning it).

 

[Robertio]

No, it’s not that we don’t get it, it’s you guys trying to find any excuse for the state of your club is what we don’t get. We’ve received so many excuses that it was pathetic, it still is.

Your club in 2015 didn’t know they were going to get worse, otherwise the club management wouldn’t think they are close to finishing their rebuild now. It’s just not happening. If they knew they were going to get worse, then they would pickup players like Goddard and Barlow to make sure the kids would get protected and obtain experience from them. It didn’t happen, which is a massive part of why Carlton is in the shitter, but Carlton management don’t seem to see it and neither can the supporters apparently.

The club don't owe you any excuse and they did try for Goddard, he knocked them back. We will pick a couple up at the end of the season. McGovern and Newman are doing alright just need a couple of the right type.

 

[a mayes ing]

The club don't owe you any excuse and they did try for Goddard, he knocked them back. We will pick a couple up at the end of the season. McGovern and Newman are doing alright just need a couple of the right type.

where does it say this?

 

[Blue1980]

I’m not making excuses, just explaining the reality. Carlton committed to a particular path and here is the result. This thread is about the rebuild and prospects for the future, and that’s where Carlton is - for various reasons, we have an exceptionally young team by AFL standards.

But to show you the other side, I’ll throw you a stat the explains quite clearly why we are currently last.

In the last 4 drafts we have recruited 24 players who would currently be aged 23 to 28. Of those 24, only 5 are currently best 22.

In the same time frame we have used 19 late draft and rookie picks. Only 1 (actually probably 2 with Silvagni’s recent form) is currently best 22. Note some players are in both categories (age 23+ and late picks).

That’s arguably the reason we are terrible in the present. We have added a bunch of players for the ‘now’ and they haven’t worked out. Some have had injuries, bad luck, others were terrible and indefensible long shots. We missed on a few players we really coveted too - Devon smith and Dylan Shiel in particular who ditched us at the 11th hour, and that is a killer - but there’s nothing else we could have done in those cases.

Carlton supporters can separate that from the ‘rebuild’ - putting together the core that will take us forward for the next decade. But it’s killed us in the present, and I’m open about that (and have copped flack on the Carlton board for mentioning it).

Nailed it, we are developing a talented core of youngsters, but the recruiting for experienced players, late picks and rookie selections under SOS has been terrible.

That is why we aren’t more competitive now. SOS has used to many of the late picks and rookie draft selections on guys he was in love with in their draft years who had been injured or absent for a couple of years. Then shockingly we get them and they are injured all the time.

 

[Rich01]

Richmond were drooling over stocker pre draft

Were they? Reports from Stocker himself that they were pretty scathing on him for his lack of defensive running.

 

[Rich01]

Combined AFL averages:
Will setterfield v Nathan Krueger
View attachment 680052

Ouch...... if you are okay with maths. Just add another 0 to the right hand column of Nathan Krueger’s stats to calculate the full value of the current pick exchange.... ouch indeed.

Setterfield >>>>>> Krueger + Imaginary future player.

Would take 2019 pick 19 and Krueger over those stats.
Midfielders who average 16 possessions a game and are mainly outside are a dime a dozen.

 

[Blue1980]

Would take 2019 pick 19 and Krueger over those stats.
Midfielders who average 16 possessions a game and are mainly outside are a dime a dozen.

Setterfield may end up a nothing, but an outside player he is not.

See how he goes this year and next

 

[Monkey King]

Would take 2019 pick 19 and Krueger over those stats.
Midfielders who average 16 possessions a game and are mainly outside are a dime a dozen.

Lol. Don’t think he was recruited for what he’d produce in his first year back from an ACL

Some people really can’t see passed the nose on their face.

 

[Robertio]

where does it say this?

It was a story on Goddard in the Herald Sun months ago, if you want to be a know it all better read everything.

 

[LoungeLizard]

It was a story on Goddard in the Herald Sun months ago, if you want to be a know it all better read everything.

Goddard didn't say no, Carlton did.

 

[Robertio]

Goddard didn't say no, Carlton did.

In the artical it said Carlton came knocking, now i don't believe everything i read but that's what it said.

 

[LoungeLizard]

In the artical it said Carlton came knocking, now i don't believe everything i read but that's what it said.

Yes and Goddard didn't say no.

 

[a mayes ing]

It was a story on Goddard in the Herald Sun months ago, if you want to be a know it all better read everything.

Put the story out here so that people can read it to see if you are right or not

 

[Robertio]

Yes and Goddard didn't say no.

Were you there?

 

[LoungeLizard]

Were you there?

LOL, what is that supposed to mean?

You said you read the article, do you have a memory of a goldfish?

 

[a mayes ing]

In the artical it said Carlton came knocking, now i don't believe everything i read but that's what it said.

https://www.triplem.com.au/story/ja...d-brendon-goddard-a-spot-on-their-list-130364
I assume this is the article you read. Carlton were slightly interested but as Goddard said "It fizzled out anyway"

So your team made a mistake, and should have offered him a contract and you never know your team might not be in the spot right now if you had

 

[Happy_Neale]

Is it that hard to google?

St Kilda and Essendon great Brendon Goddard reveals Carlton offered him an AFL lifeline.

Recently retired St Kilda and Essendon great Brendon Goddard has revealed Carlton offered him a lifeline last month.

The dual All-Australian was linked to a move to the Blues when co-captain Sam Docherty ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament in December, but it was the shock retirement of new recruit Tom Bugg at the start of February that sparked Carlton’s interest.

“It was post-January, so it wasn’t when everyone was (speculating about it in December),” Goddard said on Tuesday night.

“I was struggling to get my head around it after not doing much for three or four months and putting on a bit of weight and not training, just because I knew I didn’t have to.

He knocked Carlton back. Probably best to read articles you are referencing.

 

[Rich01]

Setterfield may end up a nothing, but an outside player he is not.

See how he goes this year and next

Agree he isn’t a natural outside mid.

The question will be whether he ends up an adequate inside mid and wins a greater percentage of contested ball.

 

[Robertio]

LOL, what is that supposed to mean?

You said you read the article, do you have a memory of a goldfish?

I have a very good memory, so i'll be reading what you post here with interest.

 

[Robertio]

https://www.triplem.com.au/story/ja...d-brendon-goddard-a-spot-on-their-list-130364
I assume this is the article you read. Carlton were slightly interested but as Goddard said "It fizzled out anyway"

So your team made a mistake, and should have offered him a contract and you never know your team might not be in the spot right now if you had

My team made lots of mistakes, getting Goddard would have been another one.