Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Footy Smarts]

No. I think he’s a second string midfielder for a premiership side. Or a starting midfielder for a side that’s just off the pace.

So this is much more reasonable than your first claim. "Geez I hope you don’t think Bruin in the midfield is the way forward to win a flag."

So it is the way forward to winning a flag just not as a midfield starter?

Marking him down as a contributor in a potential premiership side isn’t writing anyone off. It’s being realistic about how he competes against the top tier mids for Sydney, Brisbane and GWS. Do you think he’s up there with them, honestly?

Right now? No.

But he did get more clearances per game than every mid at Brisbane, Sydney and GWS except Tom Green, Lachie Neale and Isaac Heeney.

So more than Coniglio, Callaghan, Kelly, Dunkley, Ashcroft, Mcluggage, Berry, Warner, Gulden and Rowbottom. That's despite playing very low game time due to in game injuries.

It's pretty bold to think a guy who is an excellent clearance player at 21-22 and uses the ball extremely well can't become a very good mid in time. He's very strong in some of the most difficult areas.

 

[Rich01]

So this is much more reasonable than your first claim. "Geez I hope you don’t think Bruin in the midfield is the way forward to win a flag."

So it is the way forward to winning a flag just not as a midfield starter?



Right now? No.

But he did get more clearances per game than every mid at Brisbane, Sydney and GWS except Tom Green, Lachie Neale and Isaac Heeney.

So more than Coniglio, Callaghan, Kelly, Dunkley, Ashcroft, Mcluggage, Berry, Warner, Gulden and Rowbottom. That's despite playing very low game time due to in game injuries.

It's pretty bold to think a guy who is an excellent clearance player at 21-22 and uses the ball extremely well can't become a very good mid in time. He's very strong in some of the most difficult areas.

Very similar to George Hewett. George is superior to him but Tanner will probably continue to improve.

Interestingly Carlton have pegged him as a second string mid behind Walsh, Cerra, Cripps.

 

[Romeoh1]

Scott is right in trying to punch thru for another flag.
The comp is so even there are 12 teams that could fluke a flag. Port and Geelong are two of them.

But when push comes to shove, I don’t think midfields led by Bowes and Bruin stand up to sides like Brisbane and Sydney in the big games. Thats where you fell short and will need to improve. Do you disagree with this or believe those two are the answer?

Nope- the midfield has been our weakness all year, longer really. Most of us recognise that, and are hopeful that we can pick up a couple of quality mids, and that the others will continue to improve.(without them probably ever becoming stars- but then, players can develop-look at Zach Guthrie- I never really thought he was going to make it, now he is an integral part of the team).
When we get a good midfield again, then we will be a vg team. Wells and Mackie are really smart cookies, so I’m confident they will find the players we need sooner than later.

 

[Rich01]

Nope- the midfield has been our weakness all year, longer really. Most of us recognise that, and are hopeful that we can pick up a couple of quality mids, and that the others will continue to improve.

Could not agree with you more.
I’m unsure why other cats fans can’t see this when it was glaringly obvious when Holmes came off the field on Saturday.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Regardless, Gibcus, Rioli, Clarke, Bauer, Ross(23 at season start) Fawcett had major interruptions to their season and several others like Brown, Trezise, Gray had 4-6 week periods they couldnt play due to injury. Even overlooking how many games which players in the age group would have played, injuries have clearly had a major impact on the performance of this cohort for Richmond in 2024. And by major I mean massive. Such that you and I have no way of fairly judging what this group may have otherwise produced.

We're back to "you can't judge our 21-23 year olds who can't get a game".

It's very funny seeing you try and pick holes in the AFL performances of Dempsey, Holmes, O Henry, Humphries, Bruhn, etc while refusing to make any judgement on players like Bauer, Trezise and Sonsie who spent big periods of the year in the VFL.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Could not agree with you more.
I’m unsure why other cats fans can’t see this when it was glaringly obvious when Holmes came off the field on Saturday.

It was when Bruhn came off the field that it went bad too. But because our midfield of Danger, Atkins, Stanley, Blicavs, etc had a bad 3rd quarter the conclusion is that Bruhn will never be more than a role player. I don't really get that logic.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

We're back to "you can't judge our 21-23 year olds who can't get a game".

It's very funny seeing you try and pick holes in the AFL performances of Dempsey, Holmes, O Henry, Humphries, Bruhn, etc while refusing to make any judgement on players like Bauer, Trezise and Sonsie who spent big periods of the year in the VFL.

What a stupid statement. In fact the whole post.

I will happily judge players that had a decent run at it like Sonsie, who clearly has plenty to work on.

Trezise is not going to be telling either way but I think he should be ok once he finds a consistent role. Bauer missed basically the whole pre-season and more than the first half of the season. He was given some time to get to match fitness in the VFL then had 3 really tidy games to finish the season. So there is every reason to have some optimism on him, but it is a small sample of AFL games to judge by.

It seems to be incredibly difficult for you to acknowledge the young Richmond players were serverely impacted by injuries in 2024. But that's on you.

 

[Rich01]

It was when Bruhn came off the field that it went bad too. But because our midfield of Danger, Atkins, Stanley, Blicavs, etc had a bad 3rd quarter the conclusion is that Bruhn will never be more than a role player. I don't really get that logic.

Do you see your side winning a flag if he is one of your top three mids?

Because it seems from the above you are crediting the drop off from the prelim on Bruins injury.

I didn’t see his output drop off immensely though. He wasn’t noticeable in the first half either.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Do you see your side winning a flag if he is one of your top three mids?

Maybe. He's improved immensely since his first few games at Geelong. Why should the improvement stop now?

He had the second highest centre bounce attendances for Geelong against Port in the QF. That seemed to work out ok.

 

[Sttew]

tl;dr

Can you believe the effort he goes to to post one Cats related thesis after the next. That is obsession!

 

[Rich01]

Maybe. He's improved immensely since his first few games at Geelong. Why should the improvement stop now?

He had the second highest centre bounce attendances for Geelong against Port in the QF. That seemed to work out ok.

William Drew had less CBAs but twice as many centre clearances than Tanner.

Attendances in the centre is a highly unusual stat to justify the talent a player has. All it shows is that he’s a preferred starting mid in a side that falls short of contending for a flag.

 

[PhatBoy]

Could not agree with you more.
I’m unsure why other cats fans can’t see this when it was glaringly obvious when Holmes came off the field on Saturday.

Mate we can see it - the thing is that people aren’t just resigned to the idea that guys won’t get better.

Take a kid like Jhye Clarke at 19. Now who knows, he might be a total bust. But he’s also 19 and there was a reason he was taken at 7 in the draft - he must have had something going for him. He will, logically improve now that he’s got ten games or so under his belt. Bruhn as I said is just as likely to get better. Bowes won’t improve much but you never know, I didn’t think Tom Atkins would ever have a season like he did in 2022 then he suddenly came out and was a key part of our run to the premiership.

I don’t believe in the idea of ever needing a blue ribbon midfield. It helps, but I think having one elite player, and a whole bunch of capable ones, is about all you need if your strengths lie elsewhere.

 

[ThatsjustDappa]

Yep, I'm now convinced, Richmond have the better youth and it was only the senior players that held the team down to bottom of the ladder.

 

[Footy Smarts]

William Drew had less CBAs but twice as many centre clearances than Tanner.

Attendances in the centre is a highly unusual stat to justify the talent a player has. All it shows is that he’s a preferred starting mid in a side that falls short of contending for a flag.

You know Bruhn averages almost double the centre clearances over the season as Drew? That's despite him playing 61% game time to over 80% for Drew.

You're sounding very confused here. You desperately made sweeping statements about Bruhn's limitations based on a period when he was mainly on the bench.

Let's take a step back and be realistic. He's a young player who has improved a lot recently to become a solid contributor.

GWS and Geelong both pumped games into him while young so saw a lot of talent. He should develop a lot more physically from here. He's already a decent inside mid with some strengths but also limitations.

He'll end up somewhere between a decent but limited inside mid, which he already is, and a genuine gun. Only time will tell where he ends up in that range.

Geelong being beaten in midfield while he mostly wasn't out there tells us absolutely nothing about how good he will be.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Ollie Henry’s ‘really poor’ home and away season that still saw him kick multiple goals 9 times and 32 goals - and 13 assists - as a 21 year old (more or less - he turned 22 two weeks before it finished).


If that’s ’really poor’ for a non-key forward is, playing behind the likes of Cameron and Stengle I’d hate to see what some other players rate at.

Let’s look at…. Say, Bailey Fritsch, who aside from his disgusting hair was actually lauded in some circles for how he played this year. He was the first option for Melbourne in many ways; he’s almost the same size as Henry, he’s five years older at 27, and in 23 games he contributed 41 goals and 12 assists. 53 goals in total in 23 games, Henry had 45 goals contributed - in a very poor home and away season, apparently, in 21 games. And in one of those games he was subbed out….. against the 2-21 Tigers just after quarter time with a hamstring injury.

He also missed the game against Essendon which we won comfortably, and the game against Sydney, and only played less than a quarter against Hawthorn in a game we won easily, and a quarter of the win over Collingwood. Games where he was used as the sub after he returned from injury.

Fritsch played, aside from 57 per cent time on ground in the final round against Collingwood, virtually the entirety of every match this year aside from regulation spells on the bench for a quick rest.


Now I’m guessing, MR, as someone who adheres so STRICTLY to data gained from here there and everywhere, as well as your insistence on removing the centrefold from ancient copies of Hustler and replacing it with a printout or a Player Ratingz spreadsheet, with a player like Jack Henry, all you’ve done is have a quick look at games played and goals kicked for the express purpose of your post in this thread.

Henry had a perfectly decent season for a player of his age whenever he was able to build any continuity.

The only thing lacking in his game is some extra work off the ball as his defence in forward 50 needs work.

Henry's key home and away averages(approximate) in 2024, playing forward in the 3rd highest scoring team in the AFL, ranked 5 for inside 50's:

Disposals - 8.5
Cont poss - 4.3
Disp eff - 61%
Marks - 3
Cont marks - 0.7
Goals - 1.5
Assists - 0.6
Score involvements - 4.5
Tackles - 1.3
Offensive 1 v 1 win % - 27%
Pressure acts - 10

He was the 108th highest rated forward in the AFL. Fritsch was the 43rd highest rated forward in the AFL. Now bar the player rating, those are roughly Henry's home and away season averages without his 2 very good finals which would boost his season averags a little. But you were taking me to task on my saying he had a poor home and away season. I stand by that. Henry is a 22yo mid sized player in his 4th year in the AFL. He should have upside, but that return, notwithstanding his finals performances, is not great. It also represents a backwards step from the previous season.

 

[Rich01]

You know Bruhn averages almost double the centre clearances over the season as Drew? That's despite him playing 61% game time to over 80% for Drew.

You're sounding very confused here. You desperately made sweeping statements about Bruhn's limitations based on a period when he was mainly on the bench.

Let's take a step back and be realistic. He's a young player who has improved a lot recently to become a solid contributor.

GWS and Geelong both pumped games into him while young so saw a lot of talent. He should develop a lot more physically from here. He's already a decent inside mid with some strengths but also limitations.

He'll end up somewhere between a decent but limited inside mid, which he already is, and a genuine gun. Only time will tell where he ends up in that range.

Geelong being beaten in midfield while he mostly wasn't out there tells us absolutely nothing about how good he will be.

When we are trying to justify him being better than William and Hewett, it’s pretty safe to say where he lands in terms of quality.

Time will tell if the cats brains trust agree with you or look to bring in genuine quality mids to bolster their stocks of role players supporting Danger and Holmes. I’m tipping the latter.

 

[PhatBoy]

Henry's key home and away averages(approximate) in 2024, playing forward in the 3rd highest scoring team in the AFL, ranked 5 for inside 50's:

Disposals - 8.5
Cont poss - 4.3
Disp eff - 61%
Marks - 3
Cont marks - 0.7
Goals - 1.5
Assists - 0.6
Score involvements - 4.5
Tackles - 1.3
Offensive 1 v 1 win % - 27%
Pressure acts - 10

He was the 108th highest rated forward in the AFL. Fritsch was the 43rd highest rated forward in the AFL. Now bar the player rating, those are roughly Henry's home and away season averages without his 2 very good finals which would boost his season averags a little. But you were taking me to task on my saying he had a poor home and away season. I stand by that. Henry is a 22yo mid sized player in his 4th year in the AFL. He should have upside, but that return, notwithstanding his finals performances, is not great. It also represents a backwards step from the previous season.

Ratingz

He contributed 8 less goals total than the five-years-older Fritsch, playing as his side’s 3rd, and sometimes 4th forward, from two less total home and away games and with 3 of the games he did play adding up to a total of around three-quarters of football.

Spin it any way you want. All that does is just kick the player ratings in the dick yet again.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You know Bruhn averages almost double the centre clearances over the season as Drew? That's despite him playing 61% game time to over 80% for Drew.

You're sounding very confused here. You desperately made sweeping statements about Bruhn's limitations based on a period when he was mainly on the bench.

Let's take a step back and be realistic. He's a young player who has improved a lot recently to become a solid contributor.

GWS and Geelong both pumped games into him while young so saw a lot of talent. He should develop a lot more physically from here. He's already a decent inside mid with some strengths but also limitations.

He'll end up somewhere between a decent but limited inside mid, which he already is, and a genuine gun. Only time will tell where he ends up in that range.

Geelong being beaten in midfield while he mostly wasn't out there tells us absolutely nothing about how good he will be.

Bruhn is the 78th highest rated midfielder to play 10 or more games in 2024. So he would be about the 5th highest rated midfielder in an average team. There are 11 mids in the AFL his age or younger that rated higher in 2024. But he comes from an incredibly weak draft. In the draft year prior there were 8 mids rating higher at Bruhn's age. He's played 17 games in the midfield and got 3 coaches votes. I doubt GWS would be lining up to buy him back at the same price they sold him for.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Lol Rich01 I just saw you tried to blame Guthrie for our midfield issues in the prelim in another thread

Have a good day.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Bruhn is the 78th highest rated midfielder to play 10 or more games in 2024. So he would be about the 5th highest rated midfielder in an average team. There are 11 mids in the AFL his age or younger that rated higher in 2024. But he comes from an incredibly weak draft. In the draft year prior there were 8 mids rating higher at Bruhn's age. He's played 17 games in the midfield and got 3 coaches votes. I doubt GWS would be lining up to buy him back at the same price they sold him for.

Yep. Except when injured (remember them? Even some Geelong players have them!) he's currently a solid number 4 mid.

Let's see how he improves. Maybe you'll be as right about Bruhn as you were about Holmes. Is Tom Brown still the better footballer???

 

[Footy Smarts]

Well at least we aren’t talking about how Tanners the second coming of Christ anymore Smarts! Thanks for showing interest in all my posts, at least I know someone’s reading all of them
Enjoy your evening bud.

I'll make sure I keep an eye out for your posts whenever I need a good laugh. Thanks for your contribution.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Ratingz

He contributed 8 less goals total than the five-years-older Fritsch, playing as his side’s 3rd, and sometimes 4th forward, from two less total home and away games and with 3 of the games he did play adding up to a total of around three-quarters of football.

Spin it any way you want. All that does is just kick the player ratings in the dick yet again.

What's comparing him to Fritsch got to do with anything? Fritsch essentially had his worst year in the AFL, and was playing in a mess of a forward line, in a team struggling with midfield issues as well. Compare him with someone like Jack Gunston in a similar role at 22 in a high scoring top 4 team and see how he comes off. Or Tim Membrey as a 22yo in a similar role for a weak St Kilda team. Henry is not even at the races compared to those guys.

And kicking X goals less or more doesn't itself tell you how well a forward has played, there is a lot more to playing forward than just how many goals you kick....for most forwards anyway.

I mean you are denigrating player ratings, which take into account everything a player does, and next minute you are yourself making sweeping judgements based solely on how many goals a player has kicked.

 

[Rich01]

I'll make sure I keep an eye out for your posts whenever I need a good laugh. Thanks for your contribution.

All good, always know you what makes you bite Smarts. Keep up with that CBA stat. We may be able to pick a Brownlow winner next year by that stat the way you’ve been spruiking it.

And yeah, Guthrie lol.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yep. Except when injured (remember them? Even some Geelong players have them!) he's currently a solid number 4 mid.

Let's see how he improves. Maybe you'll be as right about Bruhn as you were about Holmes. Is Tom Brown still the better footballer???

Brown has better skills than Holmes. Holmes is a much better athlete. Holmes is of course better overall right now, but don't be surprised if Brown becomes a very highly rated player when he builds his tank.

Bruhn's ratings etc obviously affected by his low time on ground in 2024, but even so, he hasn't had much of a season with 3 coaches votes from 9 games above 80% time on ground.

 

[PhatBoy]

What's comparing him to Fritsch got to do with anything? Fritsch essentially had his worst year in the AFL, and was playing in a mess of a forward line, in a team struggling with midfield issues as well. Compare him with someone like Jack Gunston in a similar role at 22 in a high scoring top 4 team and see how he comes off. Or Tim Membrey as a 22yo in a similar role for a weak St Kilda team. Henry is not even at the races compared to those guys.

And kicking X goals less or more doesn't itself tell you how well a forward has played, there is a lot more to playing forward than just how many goals you kick....for most forwards anyway.

I mean you are denigrating player ratings, which take into account everything a player does, and next minute you are yourself making sweeping judgements based solely on how many goals a player has kicked.

Because people actually gave Fritsch, from the general feeling I got anyway, a decent pass for his year. He’s a player with reasonable pedigree, he’s far more experienced, and he was basically his team’s number one avenue to goal even if he’s not a traditional key forward.

Jack Gunston is one of the greatest medium forwards of the last 30 years who played in a dynasty side with Sam Mitchell, Shaun Burgoyne, Jordan Lewis, Isaac Smith, Luke Hodge, Tom Mitchell for a while, sending it down his throat

Membrey had a great start to his career. No argument.

I’m denigrating player ratings because they’re an algorithm. They DONT take into account everything a player does. They take into account stats mate. That’s it. They’re numbers on a page. They give no context to anything at all. Keep telling yourself there’s something beyond that in them.