Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[Hollow Knight]

I love the way that whole premise of the appeal to join up in the ad is based on past performance and then they toss in the fast read past performance is not an indicator line!

A mix of legal requirement and covering their asses I suspect.

 

[Fadge]

In my view as a neutral I can't see Carlton making the finals before 2030 or thereabouts.

Given they're apparantly doing everything right this time around, absolutely everything would need to continue to go right if they're to make finals by 2030 given their current rate of progression.

 

[Robertio]

Given they're apparantly doing everything right this time around, absolutely everything would need to continue to go right if they're to make finals by 2030 given their current rate of progression.

NFI.

 

[doppleganger]

That’s a handful of posters. I think most Carlton fans are happy to give a coach a bit of time to prove himself. After all he has had to deal with a list that has been chopped and changed and last year cruelled by injury.

This is probably his first year with a list that more resembles what the club wants to win with long term so how he performs this year will be a significant factor in whether or not he hangs around. I don’t think many Carlton fans would disagree.

All coaches deal with lists that chop and change. Teams are constantly evolving and changing.

Geelong has only played 7 players who were on their list before Carlton’s ground zero at the end of 2015. Yet they are once again sitting pretty at the top of the ladder.

Successful clubs can overhaul a playing list in 3-4 seasons.

 

[Jeremias]

NFI.

 

[SickQwon]

View attachment 651166

Can't stress this enough, this thread would be much more enticing if people stopped reacting to obvious bait.

 

[Joao]

Carlton could easily win the spoon this year (and if they lose to GC this week it starts to look really likely) but I think anybody objectively watching them this year will note they are more competitive than last year. Not a great achievement but rebuilds take how long they take. As long as they continue forward I don't see the problem.

 

[Robertio]

Can't stress this enough, this thread would be much more enticing if people stopped reacting to obvious bait.

I presume you are aiming this at me, if you look above you will see that i liked Jeremias post which means i got the message.

 

[jezzajay]

Well as they say in the ads, past performance IS a reliable predictor of future performance.

So Adelaide won't win a flag for at least the next twenty years according to you.

 

[LFTWNG11]

Carlton could easily win the spoon this year (and if they lose to GC this week it starts to look really likely) but I think anybody objectively watching them this year will note they are more competitive than last year. Not a great achievement but rebuilds take how long they take. As long as they continue forward I don't see the problem.

If we lose to GC this week - there isn't much doubt we will collect another spoon. Also, if we lose this weekend - we will be 0-4 with the next gettable game looking like our bunnies in round 11.

If Carlton were 0-10 despite looking more competitive in their honourable losses, can Bolton survive? Should Bolton survive that? His first season was easily his best and he has been tracking backwards ever since.

 

[Marcel Proust]

If we lose to GC this week - there isn't much doubt we will collect another spoon. Also, if we lose this weekend - we will be 0-4 with the next gettable game looking like our bunnies in round 11.

If Carlton were 0-10 despite looking more competitive in their honourable losses, can Bolton survive? Should Bolton survive that? His first season was easily his best and he has been tracking backwards ever since.

It makes the Liam Stocker trade look a bit shaky?

Rowell and a couple of other kids are said by experts to be very tidy prospects

 

[Jeremias]

If we lose to GC this week - there isn't much doubt we will collect another spoon. Also, if we lose this weekend - we will be 0-4 with the next gettable game looking like our bunnies in round 11.

You're willing to call the season after 4 rounds?

If we lose to the Suns on the weekend, the only certainty is that there will be another 18 games before we finish our 2019 campaign.

How many curve ball results do we have to see on a weekly basis, before people realize there are no guarantees in football?

If Carlton were 0-10 despite looking more competitive in their honourable losses, can Bolton survive? Should Bolton survive that? His first season was easily his best and he has been tracking backwards ever since.

Don't feed the bullshit narrative pushed by trolls who don't know any better.

We won fewer games in 2017 than we did in 2016 but not many who know what they're talking about will argue we weren't better a season on.

Of course he can survive a 0-10 start just as he could survive another wooden spoon season if it does indeed pan out that way.

It is as simplistic as it gets to just point at the win/loss record and ignore all other factors.

 

[Jeremias]

It makes the Liam Stocker trade look a bit shaky?

Rowell and a couple of other kids are said by experts to be very tidy prospects

How do these experts compare Rowell and Stocker as prospects?

Looking at just one aspect of the Stocker trade rather than the exchange is its entirety, is disingenuous to the extreme.

But you already knew that, didn't you?

 

[Marcel Proust]

How do these experts compare Rowell and Stocker as prospects?

Looking at just one aspect of the Stocker trade rather than the exchange is its entirety, is disingenuous to the extreme.

But you already knew that, didn't you?

To be Fair, that I dont know.

very interesting question given Carlton are in the good position of getting a two for one - where as Adelaide are potentially also in a good position of draft pick number one

I was looking at the Adelaide-Carlton trade in its entirety, but thank you for checking

 

[Marcel Proust]

You're willing to call the season after 4 rounds?

If we lose to the Suns on the weekend, the only certainty is that there will be another 18 games before we finish our 2019 campaign.

How many curve ball results do we have to see on a weekly basis, before people realize there are no guarantees in football?



Don't feed the bullshit narrative pushed by trolls who don't know any better.

We won fewer games in 2017 than we did in 2016 but not many who know what they're talking about will argue we weren't better a season on.

Of course he can survive a 0-10 start just as he could survive another wooden spoon season if it does indeed pan out that way.

It is as simplistic as it gets to just point at the win/loss record and ignore all other factors.

... based on what?

At the end of the day surely wins and loses are the ultimate indicator of success in the professional era of football?

I would be very surprised if BB can coach in '20 if Carlton come last again

 

[Jeremias]

... based on what?

Based on watching every game over that period very closely, and not just blindly following the "zomg Carlton are shit" narrative.

We played considerably more youth in 2017 than we did in 2016 (a combination of fitness and actually having the youth on the list) and yet our points for, against, and percentage remained just about identical.

We reduced our average losing margin and also reduced the number of 5+ goal losses from 8 to 6.

At the end of the day surely wins and loses are the ultimate indicator of success in the professional era of football?

At the end of the day premierships are the ultimate indicator of success in the professional era of football.

Only fans and the media would bother engaging in a dick measuring contest and arguing to the contrary.

I would be very surprised if BB can coach in '20 if Carlton come last again

That's cool.

You've ignored most of the facts and failed to put things into their proper context, so I'm not at all surprised you've come to that conclusion.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Based on watching every game over that period very closely, and not just blindly following the "zomg Carlton are shit" narrative.

We played considerably more youth in 2017 than we did in 2016 (a combination of fitness and actually having the youth on the list) and yet our points for, against, and percentage remained just about identical.

We reduced our average losing margin and also reduced the number of 5+ goal losses from 8 to 6.



At the end of the day premierships are the ultimate indicator of success in the professional era of football.

Only fans and the media would bother engaging in a dick measuring contest and arguing to the contrary.



That's cool.

You've ignored most of the facts and failed to put things into their proper context, so I'm not at all surprised you've come to that conclusion.

mate its the afl premiership ladder its not a 'narrative' or a 'dick measuring contest '

we all agree premierships are the ultimate indicator of success obviously but carlton are a fair way off so we need to go to the next line down

 

[Jibroni]

Based on the Carlton I saw against Port a couple of weeks ago they will win games, its was only about 10 minutes that hurt them.

If they were playing the Dees or Dons this week they would win. 8 wins should still be the end goal.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Based on the Carlton I saw against Port a couple of weeks ago they will win games, its was only about 10 minutes that hurt them.

If they were playing the Dees or Dons this week they would win. 8 wins should still be the end goal.

The middle part of the Richmond game they were very good too.

Certainly have the ability to knock out a few

 

[Jeremias]

mate its the afl premiership ladder its not a 'narrative' or a 'dick measuring contest '

we all agree premierships are the ultimate indicator of success obviously but carlton are a fair way off so we need to go to the next line down

You said wins and losses are the ultimate indicator of success, and now you're saying premierships are also.

Can there be two ultimate indicators of success?

I guess so when it fits your narrative.

And of course we're a fair way off, not sure why you'd think I'm arguing that point. You asked a question, I answered it - don't get all up in arms because it's not what you want to hear.

 

[Marcel Proust]

You said wins and losses are the ultimate indicator of success, and now you're saying premierships are also.

Can there be two ultimate indicators of success?

I guess so when it fits your narrative.

We were specifically talking about the blue baggers were we not? ; the-rebuild-of-carlton-and-brisbane-and-their-future-prospects

Hence its implied for Carlton, the best measure we have is winning and losing.

Obviously a flag would be better but thats not realistic last year or this, i think.


"It makes the Liam Stocker trade look a bit shaky?

Rowell and a couple of other kids are said by experts to be very tidy prospects"

In response to the carlton fan saying the spoon might be looming, again. That was what I initially said, can you answer that, because Im interested in your thoughts on the topic. Not trolling I just have an interest in football (and Rowell i am interested in how he turns out cause hes currently a gun) - cheers mate

 

[Jeremias]

We were specifically talking about the blue baggers were we not?

Hence its implied for Carlton, the best measure we have is winning and losing.

Obviously a flag would be better but thats not realistic last year or this, i think.

Actually we were talking about the difference in our 2016 and 2017 seasons.

And I indicated that sometimes you've got to look beyond wins and losses to see whether a team has improved, because 2017 presented a clear improvement for us over the previous season.

"It makes the Liam Stocker trade look a bit shaky?

Rowell and a couple of other kids are said by experts to be very tidy prospects"

That was what I initially said can you answer that because Im interested in your thoughts on the topic. cheers mate

Thought I already answered it when I asked how Stocker compared to Rowell, which you acknowledged was a good point.

Much like your simplistic view on wins and losses, if all you are willing to look at is a small part of the trade, I am not surprised you come to the conclusion you have.

From our perspective the most relevant part of the trade is Liam Stocker. If he develops into the footballer we think he may, don't tell me you really think we'll be worried about the pick downgrade it took to bring him into the club.

 

[Blue1980]

If Gold Coast and Brisbane are better than us earlier, so be it.

We should compare how we are going to how we were going last year, which is currently better but need something tangible to show for it.

 

[LFTWNG11]

You're willing to call the season after 4 rounds?

If we lose to the Suns on the weekend, the only certainty is that there will be another 18 games before we finish our 2019 campaign.

How many curve ball results do we have to see on a weekly basis, before people realize there are no guarantees in football?

Calling the season? Probably not, because I do live in hope...

But all we have at the moment is hope, curve ball results, no guarantees in football and of course: we look so much better this year when we lose compared to last year when we lost. Not really a convincing myriad of factors pointing to a glut of wins coming up anytime soon.

Don't feed the bullshit narrative pushed by trolls who don't know any better.

We won fewer games in 2017 than we did in 2016 but not many who know what they're talking about will argue we weren't better a season on.

Of course he can survive a 0-10 start just as he could survive another wooden spoon season if it does indeed pan out that way.

It is as simplistic as it gets to just point at the win/loss record and ignore all other factors.

Although there is plenty to troll Carlton about, doesn't mean there isn't some serious valid concerns about where we are heading. It is very hard to look at the last 35 games and think "Carlton look like they are ready to improve" - on the contrary, I think any impartial viewer would be thinking the opposite.

I don't want to sack the coach - but we have a couple of third players who look like first year players, no functioning game plan going forward and a complete lack of mature bodies after 4 seasons of retreads that another wooden spoon would surely indicate something is a miss.

I have read in this thread that we are "12 months behind Brisbane"... I don't think you can look at it like this... we are literally 3 or 4 steps behind Brisbane - it could take us 12 months to take those steps, or it could take us 3 years, or however longer. We are still at square one and have been there for 4 years.

It makes the Liam Stocker trade look a bit shaky?

Rowell and a couple of other kids are said by experts to be very tidy prospects

If Stocker comes on and whatever pick we end up with from the Crows gets us a very good mature body to slot straight into best-22 - then I am actually happy to not have pick 1. Carlton do not need another number 1 pick, even if we end up last this year, developing the plethora of first round picks we already have is going to be much more important than another "once-in-a-generation" kid. Obviously the optics of trading pick 1 will look very bad though.

 

[doppleganger]

We should compare how we are going to how we were going last year, which is currently better but need something tangible to show for it.

Are Carlton actually going any better this year?

Last year in rd1 the Blues performance was just as good as this year, if not better. They were winning at half time, and it was only losing a couple of players in game that allowed Richmond to pull away in the last quarter.

Last year they had a similar performance against Port, ie within a kick at 3/4 time before losing by 3 goals.

They performed better against Sydney this time, but Sydney themselves don’t look like a finals side like they were in 2018.

In 2018 they lost to the Suns by 5 goals early in the year, so is that the pass mark this weekend?? A good result for Carlton is getting within 5 goals of the Suns!!