Analysis The Rebuilds of Carlton and Fremantle and their future prospects

[btdg]

The worrying thing for blues is they’re in the hitting zone.
I broke down the lists that played lions.
A blues supporter can fill in young talent and correct me on their list as my knowledge is limited.

25+
Freo
9 vs lions

Key
Pearce (27) FB

Important
Ryan(27) BP
Switta(26) FP
Shultz(25) FP
Aish(27) wing/tagger
Walters(32) HF

Fillers
Omeara(29)
Hughes(28)
Banfield(25)

U25 Talent
Jackson(21) rising star
Serong(22) rising star
Brayshaw(23) MVP
Darcy(24) BNF
Cox(24) AA squad
Young(22) 22u22
Clark(22) 22u22
Chapman(21) 2022 rising star nom
O’Driscoll(20) 2022 rising star nom
Walker(20) 2022 rising star nom
Sturt(22) 2020 rising star nom
Fredrick(22) 2022 22u squad

U25 Potential
Amiss(19) pick 8 2021
Erasmus(19) pick 10 2021
Johnson(20) pick 20 2021


Blues
14 vs lions

Key
Weiters(25) FB
McGovern(28) CHB
Cripps(28) Centre
Curnow(26) CHF
McKay(25) FF
Pittonet(26) Ruck

Important
Saad(28) HB
Docherty(29)
Hewett(27)
Acres(27)

Fillers
E.curnow(33)
Kennedy(26)
Newman(30)
Jsos(25)


U25 Talent


U25 potential


Freo starting the rebuild later and losing talent for picks has pushed us out a few more years.
Although we’re poor at the minute the scope is still big with the majority of our list peaking 2025-30.
I feel blues list is peaking 2023-2026
Missing @ 2016 2017 drafts has hurt their ability for sustained success.
Blues now are better but the future prospects of the two clubs is chalk and cheese!

That's why this has always been an odd thread. Very different age profile and list structure.

Carlton, for better and worse, began rebuilding a lot before and the list is in its peak now. It's a deep peak with a fair way to go... Curnow/Weitering/McKay are all 25-26 and locked in forever so that gives another 6 years or so (ie: peak should last 2022-2028 before they have to hand over to another crew), but the age profile is very different overall

Freo, meanwhile, are probably better compared with Sydney - who had a massive advantage through their academy, but share a more similar profile and also made a leap last year with a combo of young guys stepping up, and older guys having a good year.

 

[Freomaniac]

Feel like Carlton are a fair way ahead.

For starters Carlton have three genuine AA quality players in Weitering, McKay and Walsh. All young.

Freo have none. Maybe Darcy is potential AA ?

The Freo backline I like but the midfield lacks quality and the fwd line is absolutely terrible.

Thanks mate...

How did you go vs the dockers at the SCG? LoL

 

[Freomaniac]

Freo with a lack of forwards will struggle

Dockers tall forwards did ok vs the swans. Luke Jackson, Jye Amiss and Josh Traecy are all taller than 193 cm and are all under 23 years old

 

[RonnieRaven]

Really happy with freos youth development in this rebuild.
it’s great to see most of the non first rders really come on.
Darcy
Cox
Ryan
Walker
Odriscol
Fredrick
Treacy
Johnson
Switta
Shultz
Banfield

If the first rds keep tracking toward their potential should have a cracking team for the second half of the decade.

AB
Brodie
Clark
Serong
Young
Jackson
Chapman
Amiss
Erasmus

That’s a full team taken from 2016 draft onwards

 

[Fadge]

You've got to laugh at the arrogance of Carlton supporters a month or so again in this thread after Freo had a slow start to the season, despite Freo doing something last year Carlton hasn't done in a decade...

 

[Freomaniac]

Trading out your 1st, future 1st (likely a top 6 pick at this stage) and future 2nd for a ruckman when you have a genuine ruck AA already whilst thinking you were in a premiership window might literally have set Fremantle back 5 more years in getting this list in shape. One of the worst decisions in a while.

Freo form in their wins vs hawks, swans at SCG and cats at home is far from bottom 6 form

 

[Freomaniac]

Sportsbet have Blues as 3rd favourite to win the flag (Pies/Dees are equal 1st).

A bit insane, thought if anything we discredited ourselves against GWS with our shocking ball use.

Did you throw $1000 on blues for the flag? LoL

 

[White Dogg]

That's why this has always been an odd thread. Very different age profile and list structure.

Carlton, for better and worse, began rebuilding a lot before and the list is in its peak now. It's a deep peak with a fair way to go... Curnow/Weitering/McKay are all 25-26 and locked in forever so that gives another 6 years or so (ie: peak should last 2022-2028 before they have to hand over to another crew), but the age profile is very different overall

Freo, meanwhile, are probably better compared with Sydney - who had a massive advantage through their academy, but share a more similar profile and also made a leap last year with a combo of young guys stepping up, and older guys having a good year.

Carlton started rebuilding before Fremantle did so it's concerning how Fremantle have gone past Carlton in their rebuild.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Did you throw $1000 on blues for the flag? LoL

nah bra. voss sux

 

[Schnitzengruben]

I think you can put a lot of blame on the failings of Voss as a coach, the ego-driven board who selected him and non-existent club culture. But how far can a team really go carrying spuds like Silvagni and Durdin around?

 

[Lach72]

Carlton started rebuilding before Fremantle did so it's concerning how Fremantle have gone past Carlton in their rebuild.

and they took two of our best 22 players too….

how quickly things turn eh?

 

[Toffee Lion]

Last year Blues fans bumped the Lions & Carlton rebuild thread after their hot start, I assume that one won't see the light of day again.

Soon it'll be the rebuilds of Carlton & Hawthorn and their future prospects.

 

[Kanye West]

Trading out your 1st, future 1st (likely a top 6 pick at this stage) and future 2nd for a ruckman when you have a genuine ruck AA already whilst thinking you were in a premiership window might literally have set Fremantle back 5 more years in getting this list in shape. One of the worst decisions in a while.

Set Freo back only 5 years, phew, I had it at another 25 years!

Thanks heaps for the insight!

 

[chinggis77]

That's why this has always been an odd thread. Very different age profile and list structure.

Carlton, for better and worse, began rebuilding a lot before and the list is in its peak now. It's a deep peak with a fair way to go... Curnow/Weitering/McKay are all 25-26 and locked in forever so that gives another 6 years or so (ie: peak should last 2022-2028 before they have to hand over to another crew), but the age profile is very different overall

Freo, meanwhile, are probably better compared with Sydney - who had a massive advantage through their academy, but share a more similar profile and also made a leap last year with a combo of young guys stepping up, and older guys having a good year.

This.

Look at the age profile of the key players of each team:

Cripps (28), Hewett (27), Kennedy (26), Walsh (25), Acres (27), Weitering (25), Curnow (26), McKay (25), Cerra (23), Docherty (29), McGovern (29)

Versus

Brayshaw (23), Serong (22), Darcy (22), Jackson (21), Young (21), Amiss (19), Clark (22), Cox (23), Chapman - inj (21), Traecy (20), O'Driscoll (20), Pearce (27), Schultz (26), Ryan (27), supported by the ageing Fyfe and O'Meara (brought in to provide some help for the young kids, but ended up displacing Brodie (22)). Fyfe (probably retiring end of year)/O'Meara also allow time for Erasmus (19) and Johnson (19) to develop in the midfield.

I understand where the perception comes from though. We had Neale, Hogan, Cerra, Lobb, arguably B Hill, Weller, but they left for a myriad of reasons, some in our control, some out of our control, but we used them (mostly, except the whole Neale-Hogan debacle), to bring in a fair bit of the current crop. If we still had them on our list then we may be challenging now I reckon, but we don't and our window is rather pushed back a couple of years.

Tabs is probably out of our forward line now, so the future is Amiss (19), Traecy (20), Jackson (21) rotating with Darcy (22). Its a few years until we get games into our kids and are in a position to challenge. There's no excuse for Carlton though, their window should be now. All their players are at the age where they should be at their peak.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

This.

Look at the age profile of the key players of each team:

Cripps (28), Hewett (27), Kennedy (26), Walsh (25), Acres (27), Weitering (25), Curnow (26), McKay (25), Cerra (23), Docherty (29), McGovern (29)

Versus

Brayshaw (23), Serong (22), Darcy (22), Jackson (21), Young (21), Amiss (19), Clark (22), Cox (23), Chapman - inj (21), Traecy (20), O'Driscoll (20), Pearce (27), Schultz (26), Ryan (27), supported by the ageing Fyfe and O'Meara (brought in to provide some help for the young kids, but ended up displacing Brodie (22)). Fyfe (probably retiring end of year)/O'Meara also allow time for Erasmus (19) and Johnson (19) to develop in the midfield.

I understand where the perception comes from though. We had Neale, Hogan, Cerra, Lobb, arguably B Hill, Weller, but they left for a myriad of reasons, some in our control, some out of our control, but we used them (mostly, except the whole Neale-Hogan debacle), to bring in a fair bit of the current crop. If we still had them on our list then we may be challenging now I reckon, but we don't and our window is rather pushed back a couple of years.

Tabs is probably out of our forward line now, so the future is Amiss (19), Traecy (20), Jackson (21) rotating with Darcy (22). Its a few years until we get games into our kids and are in a position to challenge. There's no excuse for Carlton though, their window should be now. All their players are at the age where they should be at their peak.

When the hell did Walsh age 3 years? Darcy 22? Half of these aren't even accurate lol

 

[Fadge]

When the hell did Walsh age 3 years? Darcy 22? Half of these aren't even accurate lol

Regardless.

His point is spot on.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Regardless.

His point is spot on.

His point about us being in a prime contending age yet still being rubbish has some truth to it but the rest of his post is completely silly.

Guys like Treacy and Odriscoll are no surer things than players like Hollands or Motlop for us. If we're going down that route we could make the case our age demographic is fantastic.

 

[demondavey]

Sportsbet have Blues as 3rd favourite to win the flag (Pies/Dees are equal 1st).

A bit insane, thought if anything we discredited ourselves against GWS with our shocking ball use.

Just shows how dumb punters are who follow and use that platform.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Just shows how dumb punters are who follow and use that platform.

Do you honestly think Sportsbet would have substantially different odds from other betting platforms? That would create arbitrage opportunities and allow punters to make easy, risk-free money.

The punters got it wrong (not just Sportsbet but all outlets including much of the media), but your statement just shows a complete lack of understanding of how betting, and indeed the world of money works.

Overall, you receive an F (because you failed).

 

[RonnieRaven]

Just shows how dumb punters are who follow and use that platform.

AFL controlled media pump up the well supported clubs
Money flows in to betting agencies.
Club not as good as portrayed
bookies clean up and AFL get percentage of earnings.

 

[demondavey]

Do you honestly think Sportsbet would have substantially different odds from other betting platforms? That would create arbitrage opportunities and allow punters to make easy, risk-free money.

The punters got it wrong (not just Sportsbet but all outlets including much of the media), but your statement just shows a complete lack of understanding of how betting, and indeed the world of money works.

Overall, you receive an F (because you failed).

Nice diversion tactic.

Don’t get upset because Carlton haven’t lived up to the unrealistic and lofty expectations Sportsbet applied with regards to their odds to win the flag. Anyone with half a brain could see that there’s no way a team that hasn’t played finals for about 9 years was going to even get close to a flag. It just doesn’t happen.

Sportsbet hoodwinked the mug punters and that’s that. Cut and dry.

If you’re stupid enough to gamble and piss your money into those apps, all the power to you. The whole premise of betting is to take your money very easily with a sexy marketing program, makes it easier when you can drip feed that content to the Victorian footy public.

 

[Fadge]

Nice diversion tactic.

Don’t get upset because Carlton haven’t lived up to the unrealistic and lofty expectations Sportsbet applied with regards to their odds to win the flag. Anyone with half a brain could see that there’s no way a team that hasn’t played finals for about 9 years was going to even get close to a flag. It just doesn’t happen.

Sportsbet hoodwinked the mug punters and that’s that. Cut and dry.

Did you live under a rock between October 2022 and March 2023?

 

[demondavey]

Did you live under a rock between October 2022 and March 2023?

Sorry? What was supposed to happen that would make me think Carlton could win a flag?

 

[Dockeroo]

Nice diversion tactic.

Don’t get upset because Carlton haven’t lived up to the unrealistic and lofty expectations Sportsbet applied with regards to their odds to win the flag. Anyone with half a brain could see that there’s no way a team that hasn’t played finals for about 9 years was going to even get close to a flag. It just doesn’t happen.

Sportsbet hoodwinked the mug punters and that’s that. Cut and dry.

If you’re stupid enough to gamble and piss your money into those apps, all the power to you. The whole premise of betting is to take your money very easily with a sexy marketing program, makes it easier when you can drip feed that content to the Victorian footy public.

But but but…
Jimmy Bartel and daisy Thomas and Llordo were BIG on Carlton this year?
Surely these few geniuses couldn’t get it that wrong? They wouldn’t have any VFL/east coast/big club bias at all.. would they??


Apart from west coast, Carlton have the worst bottom 6 players in their best 22 in the afl. By some distance.
Light years from winning anything serious.

 

[Fadge]

Sorry? What was supposed to happen that would make me think Carlton could win a flag?

I'm with you.

But go back and read all the articles, media reports and even BigFooty predictions during the off season.

Infinitely more people had Carlton making the top 4 than missing the 8.

It is a perplexing phenomenon.