Analysis The Rebuilds of Carlton and Fremantle and their future prospects

[WalshistheGOAT]

I feel Silvagni could be that Mason Wood style roaming half-forward who can lead to the wing and centre to be the link man.

But too often he seems to play deep and just get in Curnow/McKay's way.

Not sure if that's lack of game nous or specific instruction/gameplan, but he's always seemed mis-used to me.

I'm sure theres many ways to utilize him, my personal favourite is delisting him

 

[Freomaniac]

I think Fremantle's one shot at a flag with this group was in 2022. Similar to Melbourne in 2018 except the Demons were able to go to the draft and fix their deficiencies. Fremantle can't do that because they sold the farm for Jackson.

Yeah I know that. Only got 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th and 7th rounders in 2023.

Yet... Almost every year from 2015-21, dockers traded their future 2nd Rounder.

So I won't be surprised if Freo trades their 2024 2nd rounder for pick 30-36.

Then finish bottom 4-6 in 2024 and have pick 4-6 and use that to get a couple of 1st rounders

 

[Rich01]

Any Carlton fans still big on Fisher?

Cuningham, Martin, E Curnow, Fisher, Philp, Dow all shouldn’t be toyed with selection in that best 22. JSOS is a trier but limited.

Their mids get a bucket load of the ball but are ineffectual on the result. Cripps excepted.

176 possessions between Hewett, Acres, Cripps, Cerra and Walsh today. Incredible. Only Cripps had a decent contested game today.

Hewett 29 possies for 30 metres gained. Where has he gone?

 

[doppleganger]

Which Carlton rebuild are we talking about? The last one? The current one? Or the one that needs to start at the end of the failed 2023 campaign?

Carlton have been rebuilding since the early 2000s.

The only team they should be compared to are the Suns.

 

[RAPPA]

Any Carlton fans still big on Fisher?

Cuningham, Martin, E Curnow, Fisher, Philp, Dow all shouldn’t be toyed with selection in that best 22. JSOS is a trier but limited.

Their mids get a bucket load of the ball but are ineffectual on the result. Cripps excepted.

176 possessions between Hewett, Acres, Cripps, Cerra and Walsh today. Incredible. Only Cripps had a decent contested game today.

Hewett 29 possies for 30 metres gained. Where has he gone?

It took 12 months but we Carltoned the $hit out of him

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Any Carlton fans still big on Fisher?

Cuningham, Martin, E Curnow, Fisher, Philp, Dow all shouldn’t be toyed with selection in that best 22. JSOS is a trier but limited.

Their mids get a bucket load of the ball but are ineffectual on the result. Cripps excepted.

176 possessions between Hewett, Acres, Cripps, Cerra and Walsh today. Incredible. Only Cripps had a decent contested game today.

Hewett 29 possies for 30 metres gained. Where has he gone?

I'm intrigued Rich as you've been spouting that same line for years now and year on year more and more Carlton fans come to the realisation that you were probably correct. Where do you see our list if we replaced our half forwards like Fisher, Martin, Honey, Silvagni etc with some good players? That to me is our achilles heel right now, defense is no impenetrable wall circa Melbourne 2021 but more than serviceable overall when healthy.

For years Blues fans have shouted from the rooftops that we keep bombing the ball into our forward line, much like Melbourne pre 2021... They then went out and addressed some of that outside run and class and looked a whole new team (Plus Choco worked some wonders with some of their boys), but still occasionally fall into old habits and look eerily similar to us tonight.

Imo our inside mids simply shouldn't be the ones delivering the ball inside 50 unless forced to, but our half forwards are so weak and at times invisible that they leave it for those big brutes to do it for them. Add to that they also seem quite poor at crumbing goals, it's just not working at all.

Compare that to players like Close, Stengle, Neal Bullen, Spargo, McCreery, Gulden etc who often assist in winning the ball back for their team up the ground and also deliver it to their forwards on a platter. Our best half forward is genuinely Fisher right now and he absolutely cannot be relied on as you've long thought.

 

[Juzzk1d]

And you guys sold the farm for Liam Jurrah and his machete lol

This reply just sums you up perfectly. Classy.

 

[Freomaniac]

It took 12 months but we Carltoned the $hit out of him

How on earth does one player get 29 disposals and only gains 30 metres?

Was he on the defensive 50 and kicked backwards to a team mate on a goal square to pass to another team mate on the other side on the wing that was less flooded?

 

[Rich01]

I'm intrigued Rich as you've been spouting that same line for years now and year on year more and more Carlton fans come to the realisation that you were probably correct. Where do you see our list if we replaced our half forwards like Fisher, Martin, Honey, Silvagni etc with some good players? That to me is our achilles heel right now, defense is no impenetrable wall circa Melbourne 2021 but more than serviceable overall when healthy.

For years Blues fans have shouted from the rooftops that we keep bombing the ball into our forward line, much like Melbourne pre 2021... They then went out and addressed some of that outside run and class and looked a whole new team (Plus Choco worked some wonders with some of their boys), but still occasionally fall into old habits and look eerily similar to us tonight.

Imo our inside mids simply shouldn't be the ones delivering the ball inside 50 unless forced to, but our half forwards are so weak and at times invisible that they leave it for those big brutes to do it for them. Add to that they also seem quite poor at crumbing goals, it's just not working at all.

Compare that to players like Close, Stengle, Neal Bullen, Spargo, McCreery, Gulden etc who often assist in winning the ball back for their team up the ground and also deliver it to their forwards on a platter. Our best half forward is genuinely Fisher right now and he absolutely cannot be relied on as you've long thought.

All isn’t lost. There’s a few holes in your list and a shift in game style required.

The backline is solid. Young and Weitering are key pillars. Saad is excellent in his role.

Williams should be seen for what he is. A solid half back who hopefully can get out on the park for 15 games a season for the rest of his career. He isn’t that $850k mid they recruited him as. Need to temper the expectation of what he is, and this is symbolic of several of your other players. Plowman is a trier but unfortunately required as Marchbank can’t make it out onto the park. A decision needs to be made of him as you’ve carried him and hoped for so long. Where is Kemp being developed? It’s not doing him any good playing VFL. If he’s a defender and talented enough then there is no reason he shouldn’t be in the side. I wonder if he is either. But they should at the least give him a look.

McGovern is ok, but expectations on him are high. Drops simple marks at vital times and struggles to get out on the park. He is a classic third tall forward for mine but doesn’t fit with Charlie and Harry up forward. Down back he goes ok, as long as his matchup isn’t on one of the two opposing best forwards.

Mids should be good. Hewett should be that defensive mid that applies pressure to the opposition mids. He played this role well for periods last year. No need to be the ball winner, but a solid role player.

Cripps is Cripps. Totally respect how he came back from a horrid 2021. I thought we had seen the best of him, but he went to another level. He’s elite.

Walsh is a ball magnet but his hurt factor is low. Cerra is improving as a transition mid.

Kennedy is a big bodied depth mid.

Acres shouldn’t be getting a bucketload of ball. Just go back to his role at the Dockers in 2022 as that hard running, good kicking player who transitions and kicks well into forward 50. Play the one role and do it well.

LOB should be given the other wing until the end of the year, unless Carroll can play that role. Regardless, they aren’t doing LOB any favours moving him between seniors and vfl. Either he is given the chance or give it to someone else. I think he suits the hard running role on the dead side of the ground, and could do this well. But with the game plan suited to winning the contest in the middle, this makes this role a little redundant in Voss style of play.

Overall they are one paced in the middle.

Because they lack speed around the ground and especially in the forward line, they are reliant on winning the contest in the middle to win games.

They get caught out by sides that move the ball quickly or beat them in the middle. Voss has decided to be all in on beating sides with the talent he has rather than a system and that’s a problem long term.

Up forward they have 2 guns. Harry and Charlie should both be full forwards but can’t because they get in each others way. They need to play the Hawkins and Cameron role to succeed. I see Harry better placed up closer to goal and Charlie using his mobility to run up and down the ground in the Cameron role. This year Voss sees it the opposite way, and it could also work this way too I spose. They key is his acknowledgment that both can’t play close to goal at the same time.

The difference between Geelongs forward line and Carltons is that there are no hard running or defensive small forwards / half forwards.

JSOS is what he is. An ok medium forward.
Motlop looks decent but will take time. I’m not too sure on the rest of the young smalls, but I don’t see hard running from them up and down the ground working hard for that one paced midfield. This is more important that goal output from this group.

TDK is also an interesting piece. Do you give him that number one ruck mantle now and let him grow into it or concede he’s that third tall in the forwardline that also chops out in the ruck? He could be much more dangerous as the latter but I admit I haven’t seen the talent that many blues fans are projecting for him. Just small highlights. Needs to be settled into a position though and kept there for his development.

They have a lot of talent in the top half dozen in their list, and some able bodied support.

I still think they make finals this year, but need to re-shape their game plan for them to contend for a flag.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

All isn’t lost. There’s a few holes in your list and a shift in game style required.

The backline is solid. Young and Weitering are key pillars. Saad is excellent in his role.

Williams should be seen for what he is. A solid half back who hopefully can get out on the park for 15 games a season for the rest of his career. He isn’t that $850k mid they recruited him as. Need to temper the expectation of what he is, and this is symbolic of several of your other players. Plowman is a trier but unfortunately required as Marchbank can’t make it out onto the park. A decision needs to be made of him as you’ve carried him and hoped for so long. Where is Kemp being developed? It’s not doing him any good playing VFL. If he’s a defender and talented enough then there is no reason he shouldn’t be in the side. I wonder if he is either. But they should at the least give him a look.

McGovern is ok, but expectations on him are high. Drops simple marks at vital times and struggles to get out on the park. He is a classic third tall forward for mine but doesn’t fit with Charlie and Harry up forward. Down back he goes ok, as long as his matchup isn’t on one of the two opposing best forwards.

Mids should be good. Hewett should be that defensive mid that applies pressure to the opposition mids. He played this role well for periods last year. No need to be the ball winner, but a solid role player.

Cripps is Cripps. Totally respect how he came back from a horrid 2021. I thought we had seen the best of him, but he went to another level. He’s elite.

Walsh is a ball magnet but his hurt factor is low. Cerra is improving as a transition mid.

Kennedy is a big bodied depth mid.

Acres shouldn’t be getting a bucketload of ball. Just go back to his role at the Dockers in 2022 as that hard running, good kicking player who transitions and kicks well into forward 50. Play the one role and do it well.

LOB should be given the other wing until the end of the year, unless Carroll can play that role. Regardless, they aren’t doing LOB any favours moving him between seniors and vfl. Either he is given the chance or give it to someone else. I think he suits the hard running role on the dead side of the ground, and could do this well. But with the game plan suited to winning the contest in the middle, this makes this role a little redundant in Voss style of play.

Overall they are one paced in the middle.

Because they lack speed around the ground and especially in the forward line, they are reliant on winning the contest in the middle to win games.

They get caught out by sides that move the ball quickly or beat them in the middle. Voss has decided to be all in on beating sides with the talent he has rather than a system and that’s a problem long term.

Up forward they have 2 guns. Harry and Charlie should both be full forwards but can’t because they get in each others way. They need to play the Hawkins and Cameron role to succeed. I see Harry better placed up closer to goal and Charlie using his mobility to run up and down the ground in the Cameron role. This year Voss sees it the opposite way, and it could also work this way too I spose. They key is his acknowledgment that both can’t play close to goal at the same time.

The difference between Geelongs forward line and Carltons is that there are no hard running or defensive small forwards / half forwards.

JSOS is what he is. An ok medium forward.
Motlop looks decent but will take time. I’m not too sure on the rest of the young smalls, but I don’t see hard running from them up and down the ground working hard for that one paced midfield. This is more important that goal output from this group.

TDK is also an interesting piece. Do you give him that number one ruck mantle now and let him grow into it or concede he’s that third tall in the forwardline that also chops out in the ruck? He could be much more dangerous as the latter but I admit I haven’t seen the talent that many blues fans are projecting for him. Just small highlights. Needs to be settled into a position though and kept there for his development.

They have a lot of talent in the top half dozen in their list, and some able bodied support.

I still think they make finals this year, but need to re-shape their game plan for them to contend for a flag.

I agree with most of it, the last line especially. I think we will scrape in the 8 and maybe can win a final if the talent fires on all cylinders on the night, but we still need 1-2 off seasons needed to re-shape the list and the subsequent gameplan to become contenders.

One thing though, Hollands has taken Obriens spot on the wing and I wouldn't move him out under any circumstances. Much more natural footballer than Obrien and will do better with the experience in coming seasons.

 

[Rich01]

I agree with most of it, the last line especially. I think we will scrape in the 8 and maybe can win a final if the talent fires on all cylinders on the night, but we still need 1-2 off seasons needed to re-shape the list and the subsequent gameplan to become contenders.

One thing though, Hollands has taken Obriens spot on the wing and I wouldn't move him out under any circumstances. Much more natural footballer than Obrien and will do better with the experience in coming seasons.

I’ll admit I haven’t seen much of Hollands or Cowan but admire Voss bringing in and backing the young talent.

 

[Joao]

Neither of these teams are relying on 30+ players enough to have any medium term concerns. Carlton maybe a season of experience ahead. The idea that either has to win it in the next year (or even last year) or miss their window is stupid.

Fairly convinced both have significant coaching issues though. Underwhelmed by both.

 

[Noidnadroj]

I said in the off-season Carlton should look to trade McKay for a couple of first rounders and was widely ridiculed. I made the point he provided little at ground level, is a terrible shot for goal, and that Carlton’s list was lacking badly in other areas that could be addressed by freeing up McKay’s $850k/season.

Now here we are with McKay having kicked 9-goals in 6 games (5 in 5 if you take out his game against the Roos who had no B McKay and no Logue).

With their age profile and what appears to be lack of elite talent 21yo or under, it is pretty clear they don’t have a Premiership in their current list. So they need to look at how they can improve their list to greatly improve it over the next 3-4 x seasons. McKay has the most value to another team.

McKay is a terrific mark but gives nothing else. He’s 121st in the competition for score involvements. 126th for goal assists. 132nd for inside-50’s.

So if he’s marking it but those marks don’t turn into scores. They don’t turn into goals. They don’t turn into goal assists ….then if he’s not providing pressure and not providing ground ball benefit what’s he providing?

Don’t get me wrong, he’s a good player, but my point is the Blues would get massive overs in a trade and free up $850k.

Their list isn’t anywhere near it and has way too many holes, so action needs to be taken.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[gungho]

I said in the off-season Carlton should look to trade McKay for a couple of first rounders and was widely ridiculed. I made the point he provided little at ground level, is a terrible shot for goal, and that Carlton’s list was lacking badly in other areas that could be addressed by freeing up McKay’s $850k/season.

Now here we are with McKay having kicked 9-goals in 6 games (5 in 5 if you take out his game against the Roos who had no B McKay and no Logue).

With their age profile and what appears to be lack of elite talent 21yo or under, it is pretty clear they don’t have a Premiership in their current list. So they need to look at how they can improve their list to greatly improve it over the next 3-4 x seasons. McKay has the most value to another team.

McKay is a terrific mark but gives nothing else. He’s 121st in the competition for score involvements. 126th for goal assists. 132nd for inside-50’s.

So if he’s marking it but those marks don’t turn into scores. They don’t turn into goals. They don’t turn into goal assists ….then if he’s not providing pressure and not providing ground ball benefit what’s he providing?

Don’t get me wrong, he’s a good player, but my point is the Blues would get massive overs in a trade and free up $850k.

Their list isn’t anywhere near it and has way too many holes, so action needs to be taken.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Agree. Mckay is hopeless. We will have to do the honourable thing and take him off Carlton's hands.

 

[gungho]

Slow ball movement is the biggest problem for the Dockers and Blues: and the fact they both have unproven coaches.
List wise, they both are pretty good - albeit with a lack of quality key forwards for the Dockers.

 

[RonnieRaven]

The worrying thing for blues is they’re in the hitting zone.
I broke down the lists that played lions.
A blues supporter can fill in young talent and correct me on their list as my knowledge is limited.

25+
Freo
9 vs lions

Key
Pearce (27) FB

Important
Ryan(27) BP
Switta(26) FP
Shultz(25) FP
Aish(27) wing/tagger
Walters(32) HF

Fillers
Omeara(29)
Hughes(28)
Banfield(25)

U25 Talent
Jackson(21) rising star
Serong(22) rising star
Brayshaw(23) MVP
Darcy(24) BNF
Cox(24) AA squad
Young(22) 22u22
Clark(22) 22u22
Chapman(21) 2022 rising star nom
O’Driscoll(20) 2022 rising star nom
Walker(20) 2022 rising star nom
Sturt(22) 2020 rising star nom
Fredrick(22) 2022 22u squad

U25 Potential
Amiss(19) pick 8 2021
Erasmus(19) pick 10 2021
Johnson(20) pick 20 2021


Blues
14 vs lions

Key
Weiters(25) FB
McGovern(28) CHB
Cripps(28) Centre
Curnow(26) CHF
McKay(25) FF
Pittonet(26) Ruck

Important
Saad(28) HB
Docherty(29)
Hewett(27)
Acres(27)

Fillers
E.curnow(33)
Kennedy(26)
Newman(30)
Jsos(25)


U25 Talent


U25 potential


Freo starting the rebuild later and losing talent for picks has pushed us out a few more years.
Although we’re poor at the minute the scope is still big with the majority of our list peaking 2025-30.
I feel blues list is peaking 2023-2026
Missing @ 2016 2017 drafts has hurt their ability for sustained success.
Blues now are better but the future prospects of the two clubs is chalk and cheese!

 

[morningbrown]

The worrying thing for blues is they’re in the hitting zone.
I broke down the lists that played lions.
A blues supporter can fill in young talent and correct me on their list as my knowledge is limited.

25+
Freo
9 vs lions

Key
Pearce (27) FB

Important
Ryan(27) BP
Switta(26) FP
Shultz(25) FP
Aish(27) wing/tagger
Walters(32) HF

Fillers
Omeara(29)
Hughes(28)
Banfield(25)

U25 Talent
Jackson(21) rising star
Serong(22) rising star
Brayshaw(23) MVP
Darcy(24) BNF
Cox(24) AA squad
Young(22) 22u22
Clark(22) 22u22
Chapman(21) 2022 rising star nom
O’Driscoll(20) 2022 rising star nom
Walker(20) 2022 rising star nom
Sturt(22) 2020 rising star nom
Fredrick(22) 2022 22u squad

U25 Potential
Amiss(19) pick 8 2021
Erasmus(19) pick 10 2021
Johnson(20) pick 20 2021


Blues
14 vs lions

Key
Weiters(25) FB
McGovern(28) CHB
Cripps(28) Centre
Curnow(26) CHF
McKay(25) FF
Pittonet(26) Ruck

Important
Saad(28) HB
Docherty(29)
Hewett(27)
Acres(27)

Fillers
E.curnow(33)
Kennedy(26)
Newman(30)
Jsos(25)


U25 Talent


U25 potential


Freo starting the rebuild later and losing talent for picks has pushed us out a few more years.
Although we’re poor at the minute the scope is still big with the majority of our list peaking 2025-30.
I feel blues list is peaking 2023-2026
Missing @ 2016 2017 drafts has hurt their ability for sustained success.
Blues now are better but the future prospects of the two clubs is chalk and cheese!

There's this bloke named Sam Walsh, dunno if you've heard of him...

 

[RonnieRaven]

There's this bloke named Sam Walsh, dunno if you've heard of him...

Ran out of time sorry
I’ve acknowledged else where cerra and Walsh being young guns.

 

[Robertio]

The worrying thing for blues is they’re in the hitting zone.
I broke down the lists that played lions.
A blues supporter can fill in young talent and correct me on their list as my knowledge is limited.

25+
Freo
9 vs lions

Key
Pearce (27) FB

Important
Ryan(27) BP
Switta(26) FP
Shultz(25) FP
Aish(27) wing/tagger
Walters(32) HF

Fillers
Omeara(29)
Hughes(28)
Banfield(25)

U25 Talent
Jackson(21) rising star
Serong(22) rising star
Brayshaw(23) MVP
Darcy(24) BNF
Cox(24) AA squad
Young(22) 22u22
Clark(22) 22u22
Chapman(21) 2022 rising star nom
O’Driscoll(20) 2022 rising star nom
Walker(20) 2022 rising star nom
Sturt(22) 2020 rising star nom
Fredrick(22) 2022 22u squad

U25 Potential
Amiss(19) pick 8 2021
Erasmus(19) pick 10 2021
Johnson(20) pick 20 2021


Blues
14 vs lions

Key
Weiters(25) FB
McGovern(28) CHB
Cripps(28) Centre
Curnow(26) CHF
McKay(25) FF
Pittonet(26) Ruck

Important
Saad(28) HB
Docherty(29)
Hewett(27)
Acres(27)

Fillers
E.curnow(33)
Kennedy(26)
Newman(30)
Jsos(25)


U25 Talent


U25 potential


Freo starting the rebuild later and losing talent for picks has pushed us out a few more years.
Although we’re poor at the minute the scope is still big with the majority of our list peaking 2025-30.
I feel blues list is peaking 2023-2026
Missing @ 2016 2017 drafts has hurt their ability for sustained success.
Blues now are better but the future prospects of the two clubs is chalk and cheese!

Try listing Carltons U/25 talent and potential

 

[RonnieRaven]

Try listing Carltons U/25 talent and potential

Could you do it for me?
Top of my head
U25 talent
Cerra
Walsh
Motlop
Young
TDK
???
Unlike other fans that pretend to have full knowledge of freo and their scope.
I just left it blank for someone more knowledgeable on the topic then I

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Not sure where Freo’s improvement comes from if their under 25’s (an awfully convenient age btw) are already superstars of the competition.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Not sure where Freo’s improvement comes from if their under 25’s (an awfully convenient age btw) are already superstars of the competition.

I noted brayshaw has no improvement
You can make a case for Darcy and cox.
The rest are 23 or under with good signs.
Notice I didn’t go full purple and I exclude Henry brodie Treacy from the conversation

 

[Robertio]

Could you do it for me?
Top of my head
U25 talent
Cerra
Walsh
Motlop
Young
TDK
???
Unlike other fans that pretend to have full knowledge of freo and their scope.
I just left it blank for someone more knowledgeable on the topic then I

Kemp
Durdin
Cowan
Hollands
Binns
Lemmney
Carroll
Honey
Cottrell
O'keefe
I see you've called 2017 a bust so i won't list them but all the above show a bit

 

[RonnieRaven]

Kemp
Durdin
Cowan
Hollands
Binns
Lemmney
Carroll
Honey
Cottrell
O'keefe
I see you've called 2017 a bust so i won't list them but all the above show a bit

Thankyou A few there!
I’ve left out brodie Henry and Treacy
My cut off for u25 talent was rising star nom/ 22u22 squad base.
Just mentioned 2021 draft as potentials

 

[Freomaniac]

Not sure where Freo’s improvement comes from if their under 25’s (an awfully convenient age btw) are already superstars of the competition.

Only in 2 areas I can think of....

Backline... Meh it's ok. But most of the blokes there are in their prime. Pearce, cox are the main kpds. Walker and Clarke are solid.

Midfield... I see something here. Darcy is still 24 years old. Erasmus and Johnson should get games. Nathan O Driscoll has a nice left foot.

Forward line.... A few tall forwards aged 23 or under. Amiss and Traecy are both 194-196 cm. That's the 2 key forwards.

Gutted Sam Sturt got dropped. He was our 1st pick in 2018, taken before Xavier Duursma. A decent 190cm 2nd Or 3rd tall that has talent. Spent 3 years either injured or in the WAFL.

Lachie Schulz is 25. He is the Hayden Ballantyne of the side without the dirty tactics. A mature aged pick up that kicks 25-30 goals a season. He kicked 30 goals last season.

Michael Frederick kicked 28 goals last season too.

Luke Jackson is a KPF ruckman but can be anything.