Analysis The Rebuilds of Carlton and Fremantle and their future prospects

[Arkhitect]

Carlton should be in contention right now with the age and profile of their list. Inclusive of the last two Coleman medalists and the reigning Brownlow medallist.

The fact they aren't speaks volumes about their list strategy, the general development of their players they draft, and their continuous turnover of coaches over the past 10 years. Personally, I think Voss is a potato, but Carlton can't afford to get rid of him. Not for financial reasons, but because they really need the stability. Their hands are tied.

I'm obviously bias, but Freo has clearly rebuilt much better and more methodically than Carlton ever did. We won a final last year and have one of the youngest lists in the competition. Our rebuild commenced in 2016, and we've had reasonable setbacks with some key players leaving, but we've largely drafted and traded very well with the capital we've had available to us.

On the other hand, Carlton have nothing to show for their rebuilding efforts over a longer period of time. Carlton jumped the gun and brought in high value trade targets (spuds) way too early in their rebuild and are paying the price for it now. Their salary cap is maxed out and their list is on the precipice of atleast another mini rebuild. It's not a great time to be a Carlton fan, that's for sure.

 

[demondavey]

I'm with you.

But go back and read all the articles, media reports and even BigFooty predictions during the off season.

Infinitely more people had Carlton making the top 4 than missing the 8.

It is a perplexing phenomenon.

That doesn’t mean they were right because of the quantity of that shared opinion. Who picked Port Adelaide as a flag smoky?

Only me

 

[Juddernaut08]

Nice diversion tactic.

Don’t get upset because Carlton haven’t lived up to the unrealistic and lofty expectations Sportsbet applied with regards to their odds to win the flag. Anyone with half a brain could see that there’s no way a team that hasn’t played finals for about 9 years was going to even get close to a flag. It just doesn’t happen.

Sportsbet hoodwinked the mug punters and that’s that. Cut and dry.

If you’re stupid enough to gamble and piss your money into those apps, all the power to you. The whole premise of betting is to take your money very easily with a sexy marketing program, makes it easier when you can drip feed that content to the Victorian footy public.

We suck, plain and simple. Our gameplan is the worst in the league, other than perhaps the bottom 4 who don't have the cattle anyway.

This doesn't change the fact that you made a fool of yourself by revealing you lack a basic understanding of odds and how markets work. Hope you're still some school kid because you have a lot to learn.

 

[demondavey]

We suck, plain and simple. Our gameplan is the worst in the league, other than perhaps the bottom 4 who don't have the cattle anyway.

This doesn't change the fact that you made a fool of yourself by revealing you lack a basic understanding of odds and how markets work. Hope you're still some school kid because you have a lot to learn.

Nice try.

I know exactly how they work. The question at hand was never about my understanding of odds, it was the ridiculous notion that the market could have Carlton as a premiership favourite.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Nice try.

I know exactly how they work. The question at hand was never about my understanding of odds, it was the ridiculous notion that the market could have Carlton as a premiership favourite.

You questioned the specific platform, Sportsbet and people who use or refer to that platform.

Don't go backtracking now. Do go back to school, instead.

 

[demondavey]

You questioned the specific platform, Sportsbet and people who use or refer to that platform.

Don't go backtracking now. Do go back to school, instead.

I still do question them, in fact I question any idiot who parts with their money on any gambling platform

 

[Freomaniac]

Fans and media are too reactionary in the moment.

In another 6 weeks both teams might have the same record and the narrative will have flipped completely.

good call

 

[Juddernaut08]

I still do question them, in fact I question any idiot who parts with their money on any gambling platform

That I can agree with.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Have Carlton gone past Fremantle?

Carlton started rebuilding before Fremantle did so it's concerning how Fremantle have gone past Carlton in their rebuild.

6 weeks apart

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Carlton is a finished product imo they are just underperforming

 

[morningbrown]

chinggis77 you wanna come back and try again? Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

25 lmao.

 

[RonnieRaven]

No fwd line freo have 3 guys in the top 25 of the Coleman.
They have all kicked more then McKay and if you add their 2023 wages together it would be similar to McKays wage.

 

[Arr0w]

No fwd line freo have 3 guys in the top 25 of the Coleman.
They have all kicked more then McKay and if you add their 2023 wages together it would be similar to McKays wage.

How's the salary for Fyfe and Jackson panning out per goal?

 

[gungho]

How's the salary for Fyfe and Jackson panning out per goal?

Do you watch Freo games? Both these guys spend only half their time in the forward line at most.

 

[Arr0w]

Do you watch Freo games? Both these guys spend only half their time in the forward line at most.

Not sure why you always start with "do you watch X club games". I watch every game every week

Point is, it's way more than player X Y Z just kicking goals based on salary

 

[gungho]

Not sure why you always start with "do you watch X club games". I watch every game every week

Point is, it's way more than player X Y Z just kicking goals based on salary

The metric of goals kicked to value a players ability, begins to have little relevance when that player spends most of their time outside the forward line. It’s pretty simple isn’t it? If you were to say how is Matt Taberner salary per goal kicked as a retort it would make more sense - he plays 95 percent in the forward line.

 

[RonnieRaven]

How's the salary for Fyfe and Jackson panning out per goal?

Fyfe signed a 6 year contract that comes to an end this year free up some cap.
He was remunerated for being our captain one of best players, midfield general and service for the club.
Jackson is one goal behind McKay and a few infront of dolph who if we kept would have taken a similar pay check.
Jackson’s 21 overs now unders when he hits his peak.

 

[Arr0w]

The metric of goals kicked to value a players ability, begins to have little relevance when that player spends most of their time outside the forward line. It’s pretty simple isn’t it? If you were to say how is Matt Taberner salary per goal kicked as a retort it would make more sense - he plays 95 percent in the forward line.

So Fyfe predominately the forward line is good bang for buck?

And Jackson splits his time forward yeah?

It's a poor metric isn't it

 

[RonnieRaven]

Not sure why you always start with "do you watch X club games". I watch every game every week

Point is, it's way more than player X Y Z just kicking goals based on salary

What have you thought of the anchors the last 3 weeks?

 

[Arr0w]

Fyfe signed a 6 year contract that comes to an end this year free up some cap.
He was remunerated for being our captain one of best players, midfield general and service for the club.

But right now, this year, it's poor return per goal by your metric

Jackson is one goal behind McKay and a few infront of dolph who if we kept would have taken a similar pay check.
Jackson’s 21 overs now unders when he hits his peak.

Again, splits his time forward. Doesn't matter how old he is

 

[Arr0w]

What have you thought of the anchors the last 3 weeks?

Enjoying the more attacking, direct, footy

 

[gungho]

The metric of goals kicked to value a players ability, begins to have little relevance when that player spends most of their time outside the forward line. It’s pretty simple isn’t it?

So Fyfe predominately the forward line is good bang for buck?

And Jackson splits his time forward yeah?

It's a poor metric isn't it

Well, kicking goals is actually a pretty good metric on performance if you are a key forward. If you are Harry McKay (who is a key forward) and you haven’t kicked many goals then I’d say you’re not going that well. The same applies for Amiss or Treacy- who are key forwards for us.

 

[Wilksyy]

Been a good read this one.

 

[RonnieRaven]

But right now, this year, it's poor return per goal by your metric


Again, splits his time forward. Doesn't matter how old he is

Amiss is our full fwd
McKay is yours
Amiss is having a better season the McKay on 1/8th of his wage

 

[Arr0w]

Well, kicking goals is actually a pretty good metric on performance if you are a key forward. If you are Harry McKay (who is a key forward) and you haven’t kicked many goals then I’d say you’re not going that well. The same applies for Amiss or Treacy- who are key forwards for us.

So now it's narrowed to key forwards?

McKay has been poor in front of the sticks, but his workrate has been decent

But, using salary as a metic for goals kicked is bizarre.

Fyfe is on more money this year, than McKay, played predominantly forward, yet, we want to judge only key forwards on salary per goal?

Seriously