Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Footy Smarts]

Young, Ross, Mansell, Rioli Jnr, Cumberland, Sonsie have shown either strong form for a shorter period or consistently decent form for a longer period.

And then to come is Brown, Banks, Clarke, Gibcus, Ryan who are likely to give us about 3 long term players at least.

You genuinely think this is a high quality group of young players don't you?

At least we can agree on something. If Richmond's recent drafting proves to be amongst the greatest drafting in AFL history so most of these speculative picks turn into stars, Richmond will do well over the coming years.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You genuinely think this is a high quality group of young players don't you?

At least we can agree on something. If Richmond's recent drafting proves to be amongst the greatest drafting in AFL history so most of these speculative picks turn into stars, Richmond will do well over the coming years.

You are drawing long bows from what I posted. My post was comparing Richmond last 9 years draftees who remain on the list at end of 2022 with Hawthorn's at the end of 2016.

Richmond are unlikely to have a remarkably strong youth contingent as at 2023, due to having a series of very high finishes, and a consequent salary cap squeeze in the preceding years. But the Tiger youth at end of 2022 was nowhere near bad enough to rule out trading draft picks for mature talent in the 2022 off season.

Our youth have shown enough to think a healthy amount of them might have a good future in the game. More than that we could not confidently say at this stage.

But I like how you flipped the conversation from Richmond 2022 youth v Hawks 2016 youth after I showed they were not in any way comparable.

 

[Caligo]

Ok fair enough, let's do it right then.

The last 2016 finals team contained Schoenmakers, and that is it so ok, let's add him to the list.

Langford. Howe. Brand. O'Brien played 16+ games in 2017. Let's add them to the list.

Players in best 22 any time within a year after the trades were done + emerging players.....

Hawks - Burton, Hardwick, Ceglar, Smith, Puopolo, Stratton, Duryea, Sicily, Breust, Shiels, Lewis, Schoenmakers, Langford, Howe, Brand, O'Brien.

Richmond - Young, Gibcus, Sonsie, Rioli Jnr, Mansell, Cumberland, Pickett, Ross, Miller, Baker, Balta, Bolton, Graham, D Rioli, Broad, Short, Banks, Clarke, Brown, Ryan

So let's rank them side by side and see how they look(the rankings are very rough and based on perceived value end of 2016/22, proven performers at the time first, then highest performers, then highest potential):

1. Bolton 23 v Smith 28

2. Balta 23 v Breust 26

3. D Rioli 25 v Shiels 25

4. Short 26 v Stratton 27

5. Baker 24 v Puopolo 29

6. Broad 29 v Duryea 25

7. Graham 24 v Ceglar 25

8. Pickett 30 v Burton 19

9. Cumberland 21 v Schoenmakers 27

10. Gibcus 19 v Langford 24

11. Rioli Jnr 20 v Sicily 21

12. Sonsie 19 v Hardwick 19

13. Miller 23 v Howe 20

14. Clarke 19 v O'Brien 22

15. Mansell 22 v Brand 22

16. Ross 22 v Lewis 18

17. Brown 19

18. Banks 19

19. Young 24

20. Ryan 22


Richmond had more, their players retained from previous 9 drafts were on average younger, and they are better.

We sort of know already how these Hawks players 25 and under at the time have resolved.

Sicily, Shiels, Burton, Hardwick, Lewis are/were pretty good players at least. Duryea has been useful. The rest probably not made a big impact.

For Richmond Bolton, Balta, Baker, D Rioli, Graham are strong proven performers. Young, Ross, Mansell, Rioli Jnr, Cumberland, Sonsie have shown either strong form for a shorter period or consistently decent form for a longer period.

And then to come is Brown, Banks, Clarke, Gibcus, Ryan who are likely to give us about 3 long term players at least.

So the 25 and under lists at the time of the double midfield trades is not comparable, Richmond's is much stronger. Hawks had 6 players 25 and under who went on to amount to anything. And one of those, Burton, was traded away in short order. Richmond looks like they have half a decent team(11 players) who were under 25 when their trades were made. It is a big difference.

Where the Hawks were stronger was the 26+ yo's:

Smith, Breust, Stratton, Puopolo who were nailed on best 22 v Short, Broad, Pickett for Richmond.

What is this utter lunacy? What are you even doing? Why is the best 3rd defensive tall in the league being compared with a list clogger?

All of that post is straight up madness but that was a particularly egregious example. Sonsie vs hardwick or Ross vs Lewis would be just as bad. Even gibcus vs Langford (who had just dominated a finals series).

Not sure what you are doing, but it won't convince any non tiger.

Also what right does balta get to be compared with bruest and where is gunston? Just straight up nuts. You have set the bar though. Hawthorn finished top 4 within 24 months of bringing in TT and Hopper. Let's see Richmond match it.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

What is this utter lunacy? What are you even doing? Why is the best 3rd defensive tall in the league being compared with a list clogger?

All of that post is straight up madness but that was a particularly egregious example. Sonsie vs hardwick or Ross vs Lewis would be just as bad. Even gibcus vs Langford (who had just dominated a finals series).

Not sure what you are doing, but it won't convince any non tiger.

You misunderstand the post.

I am not grading the players in the way you are imagining. I am grading them as per the relevant point in time. And I explained in the post the proven performers at the time are graded higher then the others. I also said it was very rough, but players with potential rather than proven performance at the time would be listed later. Don't get hung up on that, I wasn't going to go into some precise grading of every player. But the detail in my post does show that the 2 clubs were in significantly different positions regarding young talent at the times of their respective trades.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

What is this utter lunacy? What are you even doing? Why is the best 3rd defensive tall in the league being compared with a list clogger?

All of that post is straight up madness but that was a particularly egregious example. Sonsie vs hardwick or Ross vs Lewis would be just as bad. Even gibcus vs Langford (who had just dominated a finals series).

Not sure what you are doing, but it won't convince any non tiger.

Also what right does balta get to be compared with bruest and where is gunston? Just straight up nuts. You have set the bar though. Hawthorn finished top 4 within 24 months of bringing in TT and Hopper. Let's see Richmond match it.

Gunston doesn't figure in this as wasn't drafted by the Hawks. You have picked up the wrong threads of the story.

If Langford had just dominated a finals series at the end of 2016, it was in the VFL. He had a strong finals series 2014, but was selected in exactly 1 of Hawthorn's 8 finals 2015-18, after which he was delisted.

Hawthorn did not finish top 4 in 2018. Teams that are straight setted finish 5th at best.

 

[Caligo]

Gunston doesn't figure in this as wasn't drafted by the Hawks. You have picked up the wrong threads of the story.

Wait, what? Aren't we comparing the future prospects of the clubs?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Wait, what? Aren't we comparing the future prospects of the clubs?

Follow the discussion. I was specifically discussing the players drafted by both clubs within the last 9 drafts.

Richmond had drafted a lot more talent.

if you want to talk about trades and free agents from the previous 9 years who were on the list at the relevant point...

Hawthorn

Burgoyne 34
Gibson 33
Henderson 28
Frawley 28
McEvoy 27
Vickery 26
Fitzpatrick 25
Gunston 25
O'Rourke 23

V Richmond

Tarrant 33
Prestia 30
Lynch 30
Nankervis 28

One team had been busily trying to build a team through trading and free agency, the other had been taking almost all of its picks to the draft.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

What is this utter lunacy? What are you even doing? Why is the best 3rd defensive tall in the league being compared with a list clogger?

All of that post is straight up madness but that was a particularly egregious example. Sonsie vs hardwick or Ross vs Lewis would be just as bad. Even gibcus vs Langford (who had just dominated a finals series).

Not sure what you are doing, but it won't convince any non tiger.

Also what right does balta get to be compared with bruest and where is gunston? Just straight up nuts. You have set the bar though. Hawthorn finished top 4 within 24 months of bringing in TT and Hopper. Let's see Richmond match it.

If you think Richmond have in mind matching Hawks post 2016 exploits then it is you setting the bar low.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Wait, what? Aren't we comparing the future prospects of the clubs?

No. We're comparing future prospects of the clubs after we apply a specific filter that includes all the Richmond players and excludes a bunch of the others.

Hence when we're comparing Richmond's list to Hawthorn's circa 2017 you have to leave out Gunston, McEvoy, etc.

When we're comparing games played by young players for Geelong and Richmond you have to include Tyler Young (25), Ben Miller (24) and Rhyan Mansell (23) but not SDK (22), Holmes (21), Bruhn (21) or O Henry (21).

These are the rules Caligo. Please try to stick to them!

 

[Gavin Excell]

I suspect there may be some disappointed Richmond supporters in the coming years ahead

 

[STPer18]

 

[Noidnadroj]

What is this utter lunacy? What are you even doing? Why is the best 3rd defensive tall in the league being compared with a list clogger?

All of that post is straight up madness but that was a particularly egregious example. Sonsie vs hardwick or Ross vs Lewis would be just as bad. Even gibcus vs Langford (who had just dominated a finals series).

Not sure what you are doing, but it won't convince any non tiger.

Also what right does balta get to be compared with bruest and where is gunston? Just straight up nuts. You have set the bar though. Hawthorn finished top 4 within 24 months of bringing in TT and Hopper. Let's see Richmond match it.

We now know that was the worse thing that could’ve happened. Made the Hawks think they were close and gave up the farm for Wingard.

The facts are Hawks traded a truckload of quality picks for TOM, JOM, Impey and Wingard. Equated to nearly 8,000 draft points.

Richmond have traded multiple quality picks for TT and Hopper, totalling about 3,800, less than half of what Hawks gave up.

Hawks obviously got 4 x players … the 2 most expensive have gone with one being paid some of his salary by Hawks to play in a flag for someone else, another’s career is pretty much cooked, and Impey is a handy player.

And where Hawks were trading in B-graders like Impey and Wingard, Richmond traded out a B-grader in Soldo to beef up our draft hand.

So long as Richmond don’t repeat the Impey/Wingard type mistakes I’ll be ok with our strategy thus far … it doesn’t mean squat in terms of wins and losses, but the strategy is fine.

Hawks gave up way way too much for JOM, and made a mistake getting Wingard and gave up way way too much for him to boot.


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[smasha]

Hocking will have his hand up like Arnold Horshack at the boy's club meeting to stop the Tiger Army from entering the bowling alley when we have to play their after 6 years consecutively of 100k plus members.
Unbelievable stuff.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Follow the discussion. I was specifically discussing the players drafted by both clubs within the last 9 drafts.

Richmond had drafted a lot more talent.

if you want to talk about trades and free agents from the previous 9 years who were on the list at the relevant point...

Hawthorn

Burgoyne 34
Gibson 33
Henderson 28
Frawley 28
McEvoy 27
Vickery 26
Fitzpatrick 25
Gunston 25
O'Rourke 23

V Richmond

Tarrant 33
Prestia 30
Lynch 30
Nankervis 28

One team had been busily trying to build a team through trading and free agency, the other had been taking almost all of its picks to the draft.

The attitude of each team is best reflected this way… top-30 picks taken to the draft by Richmond from 2017-2023 … so after their first flag and the next 7-years:

Top-20 draft picks: 5
21-30 draft picks: 5

Hawks from their first flag and 7-years.. 2013-2019:

Top-20: 2
21-30: 3

Hawks then took another top-20 in 2020, and 1 x 21-30 as well.

Richmond has a very strong draft hand next year and are likely to take 3-4 more top-30 picks.

So we can argue about list quality and depth of youngsters all we like and we will never agree … but the attitude of each club to the draft both during and since their dynasties hasn’t been the same, that much is pretty obvious.


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[Meteoric Rise]

The attitude of each team is best reflected this way… top-30 picks taken to the draft by Richmond from 2017-2023 … so after their first flag and the next 7-years:

Top-20 draft picks: 5
21-30 draft picks: 5

Hawks from their first flag and 7-years.. 2013-2019:

Top-20: 2
21-30: 3

Hawks then took another top-20 in 2020, and 1 x 21-30 as well.

Richmond has a very strong draft hand next year and are likely to take 3-4 more top-30 picks.

So we can argue about list quality and depth of youngsters all we like and we will never agree … but the attitude of each club to the draft both during and since their dynasties hasn’t been the same, that much is pretty obvious.


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Spot on. Anyone looking at it with their eyes open can see of these 2 clubs who has been taking more draft picks and who went the trade route more often. Richmond has traded out its first round pick in 3 of the last 20 drafts. Before 2022 it was 1 in 18 years. But as soon as we do it we are selling the farm apparently.

Taken 22 first round picks the last 20 drafts but sold the far, LOL.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Richmond has a very strong draft hand next year

The way you keep going on about it you might expect it to be a bit more then an extra 2nd rounder and a couple of late picks.

Does that make up for not having a pick inside 40 in 3 of the last 4 drafts?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The way you keep going on about it you might expect it to be a bit more then an extra 2nd rounder and a couple of late picks.

Does that make up for not having a pick inside 40 in 3 of the last 4 drafts?

By the time all is said and done Richmond could easily take 4 first round picks in the 5 drafts 2020-2024, on top of recruiting Taranto and Hopper. So you'd be having kittens about a deficit of 1 single r1 selection. Laughable hysteria from you, but your concern for a club that has won 3 flags and a minor in the last 7 seasons is touching.

 

[CharacterFirst]

The Richmond Vs Hawthorn list rebuild thread.

 

[Caligo]

The Richmond Vs Hawthorn list rebuild thread.

Sorry!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The Richmond Vs Hawthorn list rebuild thread.

Cats rebuild complete apparently. DeKoning, Holmes, Bruhn and Henry locked in A graders, Cats good to go. Miers and Zuthrie will pick up any slack and carry it upon their huge shoulders.

 

[Hamingja]

Hocking will have his hand up like Arnold Horshack at the boy's club meeting to stop the Tiger Army from entering the bowling alley when we have to play their after 6 years consecutively of 100k plus members.
Unbelievable stuff.

Maybe if more than 50% of them showed up to the game against us this year you wouldn't have to

 

[Catsnlakers]

And if you listened to Chris Scott dynasty Richmond(17-20) were not as good as no-flag St Kilda (09-10).

Coaches say a lot of dumb things.

Having seen both groups of teams run around in finals I can comfortably say he’s right. Our 2019/2020 team that played you guys in late September/October was nowhere near the quality of our team 2009/2010, our team that won in 2009 had 17 players who were All Australian at some point in their career, and St.Kilda still almost (possibility should of) beat us on GF day. It’s simply a luck (or lack thereof) in timing, no different to someone like Andy Murray in Tennis, or Hay List in racing, simply competed at the top at the wrong time against better opposition. And before anyone mentions it, yes our 2022 premiership team was much weaker than our 2009 team.

 

[PhatBoy]

Hocking will have his hand up like Arnold Horshack at the boy's club meeting to stop the Tiger Army from entering the bowling alley when we have to play their after 6 years consecutively of 100k plus members.
Unbelievable stuff.

What does that even mean

 

[Footy Smarts]

Cats rebuild complete apparently. DeKoning, Holmes, Bruhn and Henry locked in A graders, Cats good to go. Miers and Zuthrie will pick up any lack and carry it upon their huge shoulders.

Genuine question. Who would you prefer out of each of these?

Cumberland vs O Henry
Ryan vs Neale
Banks vs Knevitt
Clarke vs Dempsey
Gibcus vs O'Sullivan
Brown vs Mullin
Coulthard vs Willis
Sonsie vs Clark

 

[Noidnadroj]

Genuine question. Who would you prefer out of each of these?

Cumberland vs O Henry
Ryan vs Neale
Banks vs Knevitt
Clarke vs Dempsey
Gibcus vs O'Sullivan
Brown vs Mullin
Coulthard vs Willis
Sonsie vs Clark

1. Henry
2. Ryan
3. Banks
4. Clarke
5. Gibcus
6. Brown
7. Coulthard
8. Sonsie



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