Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Caligo]

The difference (I hope …) is that when Hawks went and got Mitchell, JOM, Wingard, they gave away far more draft collateral and one of your most talented kids in Burton, and followed it up with the likes of Tom Phillips. And I may be wrong, but soon after getting those guys in Sicily was perhaps your only highly talented player heading to their peak.

Richmond has 7-8 high quality players aged 24-27yo Hawks just didn’t have. And have also hit the draft hard in 2021 with 5 x top-30 draft picks, and we have another very strong draft hand next year.

So getting TT and Hopper wasn’t an ‘all-in’ play as we’ve been hitting the draft around those trades which Hawks didn’t really do, and they have 6-7 years left.

It was an eye on 2023, and an eye on our midfield from 2025-2029 post Cotchin, Edwards, Prestia and Martin.



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You are indeed wrong. Hawthorn also had the same number of high quality players in the 24-27 bracket including rioli gunston bruest mcevoy shiels as well as a few elite players slightly older but still elite including roughhead Smith stratton frawley henderson.

We should have also had the best emerging winger in the league but he unfortunately needed to return home for a monumental contract. Add that to the issues with rioli and roughhead and things went to heck, but we certainly weren't in a weaker position than you are now. It just didn't work out for us.

Edit: The draft price for Tom and JOM was about the same as for hopper and TT too. Surprisingly similar actually, including an unexpectedly high future first both times!

 

[Pomsta]

My stats were 100% true. No current under 23 on Richmond's list played 18+ games. The highest was Ryan with 14.

Maybe ask why have Miller, Mansell, Ryan, Dow, Cumberland, Ralphsmith and Rioli played so few games after 3-6 seasons? The difference between the clubs under 30 games played is more than made up for by those players (on average 3.5 of those 7 played each week).

Do you think they've been repeatedly dropped back to the VFL cause of their high quality performances?

So let's do a real breakdown:

Players currently under 23 who were selected consistently:
Geelong - 4 (Bruhn, Holmes, SDK, O Henry)
Richmond - 0

Genuine youngsters (in their first 2 seasons) played each game:
Geelong - 2
Richmond - 2

"Young" players with 3+ seasons on the list who still can't hold their spot played per game:
Richmond - 3
Geelong - 0

But keep coming up with stats that can ignore the genuine youngsters who are locked in the best 22 at Geelong while counting the older players at Richmond that are repeatedly being dropped.

The interesting take for Richmond fans would be if any of the Geelong 4 would have had the same amount of games at the Tigers. SDK would have. Holmes probably plays 16-18. Bruhn would be in a similar situation to Ross so maybe 8-12. Henry would have maybe played 10 as Dimma would have hated his lack of defensive pressure. It's just the way that Dimma treats the kids. You have to play a certain way and it's easy to get in his doghouse. With a new coach hopefully the kids get a more sustained run in the ones.

 

[PhatBoy]

165 goals in 73 games is not actually an impressively high number for a team's primary key forward who was their main marking target. It works out like a player slotting 50 goals in a 22 game season. What was actually impressive about Mooney statistically in this period is his goal assist stats. When 84 assists are added to his 165 goals you get 249 goals + assists over 73 games at almost 3.4 per game. This is right up there normally amongst the top 5 in the AFL these days, probably top 10 ish at that time. But these were Mooney's only 3 impressive seasons, and it would be difficult not to get some sort of decent return from playing FF for Geelong 2007-09. He got 28 goals + assists in 9 finals over this period, which on the face of it looks impressive. But if you remove his 13 from 2 massive routs against North and Port in the 2007 finals, what is left is 15 from 7 other finals.

I don't think overall anyone would be doing cartwheels if a moderately priced recruit matched Cam Mooney. He finished 11th 17th and 26th for goals per game in his best 3 seasons. Players that level are not actually that difficult to find. The most memorable things Mooney ever did in big games were sadly memorable for the wrong reasons.

What, like coming out in the opening 10 minutes of each half of the arguably the millennium’s most intense grand final and clunking a mark and kicking a goal, a year after what YOU think was his most memorable grand final moment? A grand final we would ultimately win by two kicks?

Yes, one of his worst finals performances was memorable to YOU for all the wrong reasons. Either side of it he kicked 5 in a winning grand final and kicked 2, gave another one off, and had a couple of contested marks while the most vaunted CHF of his generation was kept to a solitary goal for scoreboard impact at the other end.

Cats fans think about a somewhat bigger picture than just one kick at goal in a game where his 2.3 was hardly the biggest sin in an otherwise generally poor team performance

 

[Meteoric Rise]

What, like coming out in the opening 10 minutes of each half of the arguably the millennium’s most intense grand final and clunking a mark and kicking a goal, a year after what YOU think was his most memorable grand final moment? A grand final we would ultimately win by two kicks?

Yes, one of his worst finals performances was memorable to YOU for all the wrong reasons. Either side of it he kicked 5 in a winning grand final and kicked 2, gave another one off, and had a couple of contested marks while the most vaunted CHF of his generation was kept to a solitary goal for scoreboard impact at the other end.

Cats fans think about a somewhat bigger picture than just one kick at goal in a game where his 2.3 was hardly the biggest sin in an otherwise generally poor team performance

He wouldn't get selected in the role if he didn't contribute meaningfully sometimes. But Mooney's overall record doesn't lie. It is a pretty moderate record when you are comparing him to the likes of Hawkins, Riewoldt, A Lynch, T Lynch and Franklin and Roughead on this thread. Mooney served a purpose for the Cats in their dynasty team but they didn't seem to miss him much in 2011.

Edit: Lol, wrong thread. getting confused.

 

[PhatBoy]

He wouldn't get selected in the role if he didn't contribute meaningfully sometimes. But Mooney's overall record doesn't lie. It is a pretty moderate record when you are comparing him to the likes of Hawkins, Riewoldt, A Lynch, T Lynch and Franklin and Roughead on this thread. Mooney served a purpose for the Cats in their dynasty team but they didn't seem to miss him much in 2011.

I don’t disagree he’s nowhere near that class for his career and there’s certainly an element of ‘you could put anyone in that team at CHF or FF and it would have seen them with good numbers’ BUT there is also a big element of, along with the arrival of Selwood, Ablett being told to pull his finger out, and Chapman telling Johnson to stop playing for himself, Mooney finally playing sensible but tough, smart footy, that saw him start to post good numbers, and give us direction. And Hawkins followed on the back of that

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I don’t disagree he’s nowhere near that class for his career and there’s certainly an element of ‘you could put anyone in that team at CHF or FF and it would have seen them with good numbers’ BUT there is also a big element of, along with the arrival of Selwood, Ablett being told to pull his finger out, and Chapman telling Johnson to stop playing for himself, Mooney finally playing sensible but tough, smart footy, that saw him start to post good numbers, and give us direction. And Hawkins followed on the back of that

I recall now, this part of the conversation started when one of your posters said Richmond would be ecstatic if Koschitzke turned out as good as Cam Mooney. Basically all successful teams have someone who plays Mooney's role as well or better than Mooney himself. He is a budget version. There really isn't that much scope for a player to have a weaker career and be seen as a success over a long career as a key forward. But Mooney was the Cats principle marking and goal kicking target mostly. Richmond will be looking for Koschitzke to be their secondary target. Their Dan McStay type.

 

[PhatBoy]

I recall now, this part of the conversation started when one of your posters said Richmond would be ecstatic if Koschitzke turned out as good as Cam Mooney. Basically all successful teams have someone who plays Mooney's role as well or better than Mooney himself. He is a budget version. There really isn't that much scope for a player to have a weaker career and be seen as a success over a long career as a key forward. But Mooney was the Cats principle marking and goal kicking target mostly. Richmond will be looking for Koschitzke to be their secondary target. Their Dan McStay type.

You more than anyone will be familiar with the ‘does the team make the player or does the player make the team’ paradox but it’s especially tricky when talking about key forwards but I reckon funnily enough you could look at someone like Kozzy’s namesake to do a bit of a test on Mooney’s standing.

I don’t really have an answer to this, but do you think if you took Mooney’s peak years, and put him in the Saints team in 08-10 alongside Nick Riewoldt, they would have won a flag? Especially if Kozzy was playing for the Cats?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You more than anyone will be familiar with the ‘does the team make the player or does the player make the team’ paradox but it’s especially tricky when talking about key forwards but I reckon funnily enough you could look at someone like Kozzy’s namesake to do a bit of a test on Mooney’s standing.

I don’t really have an answer to this, but do you think if you took Mooney’s peak years, and put him in the Saints team in 08-10 alongside Nick Riewoldt, they would have won a flag? Especially if Kozzy was playing for the Cats?

I couldn't honestly say. But it probably isn't a great test, because you could form arguments around so many other players hypothetically switching teams and changing the result of a close game. You might for example say placing n Riewoldt in Geelong's 2009 team and Mooney in Saints 2009 team alters the Grand Final result by several goals in Geelong's favour.

Richmond won a flag in 2017 partially due to Jacob Townsend and Shaun Grigg playing makeshift roles surprisingly well. But it doesn't make them better than average AFL footballers.

 

[Noidnadroj]

You are indeed wrong. Hawthorn also had the same number of high quality players in the 24-27 bracket including rioli gunston bruest mcevoy shiels as well as a few elite players slightly older but still elite including roughhead Smith stratton frawley henderson.

We should have also had the best emerging winger in the league but he unfortunately needed to return home for a monumental contract. Add that to the issues with rioli and roughhead and things went to heck, but we certainly weren't in a weaker position than you are now. It just didn't work out for us.

Edit: The draft price for Tom and JOM was about the same as for hopper and TT too. Surprisingly similar actually, including an unexpectedly high future first both times!

You traded for Wingard with Burton (who didn’t want to leave) at end of 2018.

R1 2019:

Henderson 30yo
McEvoy 29yo
Roughy 32yo
Burgoyne 36yo
Smith 30yo
Stratton 30yo
Breust 28yo
Frawley 30yo
Shiels 27yo
Gunston 27yo
Puopolo 31yo
Rioli (didn’t play in 2019)

That trade was effectively Burton, 15 and 35 for Wingard. So they could’ve read the writing on the wall with their ageing stars, but didn’t.

But as you see above, most of the quality remaining was certainly older than 24-27yo, with most only have a year or two left at their peak.

Richmond did the TT and Hopper trades in 2022 off-season, and R1 2023 had:

TT: 25yo
D Rioli: 25yo
Graham: 25yo
Hopper: 26yo
Bolton: 24yo
Short: 27yo
Baker: 25yo
Nankervis: 28yo
Vlastuin: 28yo
Balta: 23yo

*then Lynch 30yo and Broad 29yo

That’s 10 pretty good players who were 23-28yo heading into R1 2023.

The Hawks list just didn’t have this depth of quality in their mid-20’s after giving away loads of draft capital and Burton for Wingard at end of 2018.



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[Footy Smarts]

The interesting take for Richmond fans would be if any of the Geelong 4 would have had the same amount of games at the Tigers. SDK would have. Holmes probably plays 16-18. Bruhn would be in a similar situation to Ross so maybe 8-12. Henry would have maybe played 10 as Dimma would have hated his lack of defensive pressure. It's just the way that Dimma treats the kids. You have to play a certain way and it's easy to get in his doghouse. With a new coach hopefully the kids get a more sustained run in the ones.

Yep.

Holmes. Rated the best winger in the league in the back end of 2022 and was an absolute lock for the premiers. Backed it up with 20 coaches votes this year.

Ollie Henry finished 15th in the Coleman and kicked 9 more goals than any Richmond player this year.

But yeah they would've been fringe players at the mighty Tiges

 

[Footy Smarts]

You traded for Wingard with Burton (who didn’t want to leave) at end of 2018.

R1 2019:

Henderson 30yo
McEvoy 29yo
Roughy 32yo
Burgoyne 36yo
Smith 30yo
Stratton 30yo
Breust 28yo
Frawley 30yo
Shiels 27yo
Gunston 27yo
Puopolo 31yo
Rioli (didn’t play in 2019)

That trade was effectively Burton, 15 and 35 for Wingard. So they could’ve read the writing on the wall with their ageing stars, but didn’t.

But as you see above, most of the quality remaining was certainly older than 24-27yo, with most only have a year or two left at their peak.

Richmond did the TT and Hopper trades in 2022 off-season, and R1 2023 had:

TT: 25yo
D Rioli: 25yo
Graham: 25yo
Hopper: 26yo
Bolton: 24yo
Short: 27yo
Baker: 25yo
Nankervis: 28yo
Vlastuin: 28yo
Balta: 23yo

*then Lynch 30yo and Broad 29yo

That’s 10 pretty good players who were 23-28yo heading into R1 2023.

The Hawks list just didn’t have this depth of quality in their mid-20’s after giving away loads of draft capital and Burton for Wingard at end of 2018.



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At this point in 2016.

Hawthorn best 22 players under 28:

Isaac Smith, Ben McEvoy, Ben Stratton, Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust, Ryan Schoenmakers, Jack Gunston, Taylor Duryea, Liam Shiels, Will Langford, Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O'Meara.

Richmond best 22 players under 28:

Short, Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Young, Bolton, Balta, Ross (?), Gibcus (?)

Both good lists but Hawthorn's is better. Hawthorn finished 12th in 2017, snuck into the top 4 in 2018 (6th best team by %) and a straight sets exit, finished 9th in 2019 and then the wheels feel off.

I expect similar for Richmond. Competitive for a few years. Could make finals. But unable to go with the best teams and then struggling once the lack of youth coming through is unable to replace the retiring greats.

 

[Grrr]

Yep.

Holmes. Rated the best winger in the league in the back end of 2022 and was an absolute lock for the premiers. Backed it up with 20 coaches votes this year.

Ollie Henry finished 15th in the Coleman and kicked 9 more goals than any Richmond player this year.

But yeah they would've been fringe players at the mighty Tiges

He's not talking fringe players, he's talking young players in general. The minute a young player at Richmond had a quiet game they were dropped. Cumberland, Sonsie, Banks, Ross and a few others, all have some real quality, but one bad week and they were out. And they stayed out. I am sure Homes and Henry had quiet games, but they were backed in and when a quality young player is backed in they generally respond.

Best example we had was Sydney Stack. Brilliant first season at half back. Covid stuffed him up, or he stuffed up in many ways, but was made to play small forward in the VFL for an entire season without once playing in his best position to run him into form. Hardwick teaching him a lesson, or being stubborn, or maybe they just wanted Stack gone for whatever reason. Whatever reasons one of the greatest waste of talents I have seen.

 

[Grrr]

At this point in 2016.

Hawthorn best 22 players under 28:

Isaac Smith, Ben McEvoy, Ben Stratton, Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust, Ryan Schoenmakers, Jack Gunston, Taylor Duryea, Liam Shiels, Will Langford, Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O'Meara.

Richmond best 22 players under 28:

Short, Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Young, Bolton, Balta, Ross (?), Gibcus (?)

Both good lists but Hawthorn's is better. Hawthorn finished 12th in 2017, snuck into the top 4 in 2018 (6th best team by %) and a straight sets exit, finished 9th in 2019 and then the wheels feel off.

I expect similar for Richmond. Competitive for a few years. Could make finals. But unable to go with the best teams and then struggling once the lack of youth coming through is unable to replace the retiring greats.

You may be right, but you, like most of us Richmond supporters are not really sure what our young players coming through are really like because of their lack of exposure. Sure no Daicos type talent, which would be nice. I think we will all know a bit more after season 24, until then we are all sort of guessing. Besides you only need to add a Lynch/Cameron type play and you are back in the running.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

At this point in 2016.

Hawthorn best 22 players under 28:

Isaac Smith, Ben McEvoy, Ben Stratton, Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust, Ryan Schoenmakers, Jack Gunston, Taylor Duryea, Liam Shiels, Will Langford, Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O'Meara.

Richmond best 22 players under 28:

Short, Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Young, Bolton, Balta, Ross (?), Gibcus (?)

Both good lists but Hawthorn's is better. Hawthorn finished 12th in 2017, snuck into the top 4 in 2018 (6th best team by %) and a straight sets exit, finished 9th in 2019 and then the wheels feel off.

I expect similar for Richmond. Competitive for a few years. Could make finals. But unable to go with the best teams and then struggling once the lack of youth coming through is unable to replace the retiring greats.

Hawks drafted in the 9 years leading up to the acquisition of Mitchell + O'Meara who were still at the club for the 2017 season:

2016 74 Morrison, 76 Lewis, rookie Hanrahan, rookie Cousins

2015 19 Burton, 22 Lovell, 44 Hardwick, Rookies Surman Stewart Glass

2014 31 Howe, 49 Miles 50 Pittonet

2013 24 Hartung, 56 Sicily

2012 28 O'Brien, 66 Brand, Rookie Ceglar

2011 -

2010 19 Isaac Smith, 66 Puopolo,

2009 46 Stratton, 69 Duryea

2008 16 Schoenmakers, 34 Shiels, Rookie Breust

Picks in first 3 rounds: 16, 19, 19, 22, 24, 28, 31, 34, 44, 46, 56

Players of best 22 quality at any time 2017: Burton, Hardwick, Ceglar, Smith, Puopolo, Stratton, Duryea, Sicily, Breust, Shiels

Players who emerged later into best 22: Lewis



Richmond drafted 9 years prior to Taranto, Hopper still at club for 2023:

2022 49 Smith, 55 Green, rookies Bauer, Campbell, Young

2021 9 Gibcus, 17 Brown, 28 Sonsie, 29 Banks, 30 Clarke

2020 40 Ryan, 51 Rioli Jnr, SSP Mansell

2019 21 Dow, 43 Cumberland, 46 Ralphsmith, 54 Nyuon, MSD M Pickett

2018 43 Ross

2017 25 Balta, 63 Miller, rookie Baker

2016 29 Bolton, 53 Graham

2015 15 D Rioli, 67 Broad

2014 Rookie Short, Castagna, Soldo

Picks in first 3 rounds: 9, 15, 17, 21, 25, 28, 29, 29, 30, 40, 43, 43, 46, 49, 51, 53, 54, 55

Best 22 as at any time 2023: Young, Gibcus, Sonsie, Rioli Jnr, Mansell, Cumberland, Pickett, Ross, Miller, Baker, Balta, Bolton, Graham, D Rioli, Broad, Short

Players likely to emerge later: Banks, Clarke, Brown, Ryan



So side by side comparisons...

Picks taken first 3 rounds:

Hawks - 16, 19, 19, 22, 24, 28, 31, 34, 44, 46, 56

v

Tigers - 9, 15, 17, 21, 25, 28, 29, 29, 30, 40, 43, 43, 46, 49, 51, 53, 54, 55


Players in best 22 any time within a year after the trades were done + emerging players.....

Hawks - Burton, Hardwick, Ceglar, Smith, Puopolo, Stratton, Duryea, Sicily, Breust, Shiels, Lewis

V

Richmond - Young, Gibcus, Sonsie, Rioli Jnr, Mansell, Cumberland, Pickett, Ross, Miller, Baker, Balta, Bolton, Graham, D Rioli, Broad, Short, Banks, Clarke, Brown, Ryan


There is absolutely no comparison whatsoever between the positions these teams were in at the time the Mitchell/O'Meara trades were done on one hand, and the Taranto/Hopper trades on the other. Richmond is brimming over with young talent in comparison to what the Hawks had on their list.

 

[Noidnadroj]

At this point in 2016.

Hawthorn best 22 players under 28:

Isaac Smith, Ben McEvoy, Ben Stratton, Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust, Ryan Schoenmakers, Jack Gunston, Taylor Duryea, Liam Shiels, Will Langford, Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O'Meara.

Richmond best 22 players under 28:

Short, Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Young, Bolton, Balta, Ross (?), Gibcus (?)

Both good lists but Hawthorn's is better. Hawthorn finished 12th in 2017, snuck into the top 4 in 2018 (6th best team by %) and a straight sets exit, finished 9th in 2019 and then the wheels feel off.

I expect similar for Richmond. Competitive for a few years. Could make finals. But unable to go with the best teams and then struggling once the lack of youth coming through is unable to replace the retiring greats.

Yes, you went again end of 2018 (Burton, 15 and 35 is a very good cache) after a straight sets finals exit. Knowing how old all those players I listed were coming into R1 2019. It wasn’t a mistake in hindsight, it was ridiculous, especially as it was clear there wasn’t loads of quality youth on your books.

It would be the same as Richmond getting to the end of 2025 having gone out in straight sets… with all those quality players now 28-32yo, and trading our most promising young player, 15 and 35 for a 26yo forward flanker on the back of a couple of inconsistent seasons.. let’s say Ollie Florent.

If Richmond pulls that kind of move I’ll be mightily surprised and peeved, especially if our depth of quality youth looks really light on as the Hawks was post 2018.

This doesn’t mean we won’t go down the bottom or have a shonky list in the near future … if we’ve butchered our picks and butcher next years strong draft hand we might be in for pain. And I don’t begrudge the Hawks getting Mitchell and JOM as your midfield needed beefing up post Mitchell and Lewis, and they had 6-8 years left each.

But when it was clear post 2018 you were a fair way off the mark and the youth was not very good on your list, the Wingard trade was stupidity.


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[Pomsta]

Yep.

Holmes. Rated the best winger in the league in the back end of 2022 and was an absolute lock for the premiers. Backed it up with 20 coaches votes this year.

Ollie Henry finished 15th in the Coleman and kicked 9 more goals than any Richmond player this year.

But yeah they would've been fringe players at the mighty Tiges

Ollie Henry would probably have played a few games and then get replaced by someone like Mansell. As a fan we would hate it but that's just what Dimma does. Holmes was still inconsistent. A couple of poor games, or even poor halves would have seen him dropped. Dimma would have still played Macintosh over him every week. Frustrated the hell out of Richmond supporters.
Jack Ross got dropped after playing one of his best games to bring in one of Dimma's old faces. Got a last minute reprieve due to an injury and played his best football until the end of the year.
Let's just hope that Yze gives the kids a decent run. Then we might be able to find out if our kids are good enough.

 

[Caligo]

You traded for Wingard with Burton (who didn’t want to leave) at end of 2018.

R1 2019:

Henderson 30yo
McEvoy 29yo
Roughy 32yo
Burgoyne 36yo
Smith 30yo
Stratton 30yo
Breust 28yo
Frawley 30yo
Shiels 27yo
Gunston 27yo
Puopolo 31yo
Rioli (didn’t play in 2019)

That trade was effectively Burton, 15 and 35 for Wingard. So they could’ve read the writing on the wall with their ageing stars, but didn’t.

But as you see above, most of the quality remaining was certainly older than 24-27yo, with most only have a year or two left at their peak.

Richmond did the TT and Hopper trades in 2022 off-season, and R1 2023 had:

TT: 25yo
D Rioli: 25yo
Graham: 25yo
Hopper: 26yo
Bolton: 24yo
Short: 27yo
Baker: 25yo
Nankervis: 28yo
Vlastuin: 28yo
Balta: 23yo

*then Lynch 30yo and Broad 29yo

That’s 10 pretty good players who were 23-28yo heading into R1 2023.

The Hawks list just didn’t have this depth of quality in their mid-20’s after giving away loads of draft capital and Burton for Wingard at end of 2018.



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The wingard trade was sheer madness. The year we got JOM and Tom was really similar to the year you got TT and Hops though. That was the comparison I was seeking to make, and if anything Hawthorn had a stronger list at that time.

 

[Footy Smarts]

The wingard trade was sheer madness. The year we got JOM and Tom was really similar to the year you got TT and Hops though. That was the comparison I was seeking to make, and if anything Hawthorn had a stronger list at that time.

This is exactly right. The failed Wingard trade made Hawthorn's rebuild need to be longer and deeper. But after the O'Meara and Mitchell trades it became pretty obvious they weren't quite good enough and those massive investments weren't going to give the ultimate reward.

 

[Caligo]

This is exactly right. The failed Wingard trade made Hawthorn's rebuild need to be longer and deeper. But after the O'Meara and Mitchell trades it became pretty obvious they weren't quite good enough and those massive investments weren't going to give the ultimate reward.

That and burton was one of my favourite players. I just wanted to cry.

 

[Footy Smarts]

That and burton was one of my favourite players. I just wanted to cry.

Burton's had a weird career. He's been alright but hasn't really fulfilled his potential yet.

 

[Caligo]

Burton's had a weird career. He's been alright but hasn't really fulfilled his potential yet.

Definitely. But every fan knows the pain of a young potential star who is a personal favourite leaving.

I have experienced it twice. Once with Hill and again with Burton.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Definitely. But every fan knows the pain of a young potential star who is a personal favourite leaving.

I have experienced it twice. Once with Hill and again with Burton.

Yeah that hurts. Brent Moloney was my favourite Geelong player in 2004. Couldn't believe we traded him. I still wonder how good he would've been if he stayed at Geelong.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Hawks drafted in the 9 years leading up to the acquisition of Mitchell + O'Meara who were still at the club for the 2017 season:

2016 74 Morrison, 76 Lewis, rookie Hanrahan, rookie Cousins

2015 19 Burton, 22 Lovell, 44 Hardwick, Rookies Surman Stewart Glass

2014 31 Howe, 49 Miles 50 Pittonet

2013 24 Hartung, 56 Sicily

2012 28 O'Brien, 66 Brand, Rookie Ceglar

2011 -

2010 19 Isaac Smith, 66 Puopolo,

2009 46 Stratton, 69 Duryea

2008 16 Schoenmakers, 34 Shiels, Rookie Breust

Picks in first 3 rounds: 16, 19, 19, 22, 24, 28, 31, 34, 44, 46, 56

Players of best 22 quality at any time 2017: Burton, Hardwick, Ceglar, Smith, Puopolo, Stratton, Duryea, Sicily, Breust, Shiels

Players who emerged later into best 22: Lewis



Richmond drafted 9 years prior to Taranto, Hopper still at club for 2023:

2022 49 Smith, 55 Green, rookies Bauer, Campbell, Young

2021 9 Gibcus, 17 Brown, 28 Sonsie, 29 Banks, 30 Clarke

2020 40 Ryan, 51 Rioli Jnr, SSP Mansell

2019 21 Dow, 43 Cumberland, 46 Ralphsmith, 54 Nyuon, MSD M Pickett

2018 43 Ross

2017 25 Balta, 63 Miller, rookie Baker

2016 29 Bolton, 53 Graham

2015 15 D Rioli, 67 Broad

2014 Rookie Short, Castagna, Soldo

Picks in first 3 rounds: 9, 15, 17, 21, 25, 28, 29, 29, 30, 40, 43, 43, 46, 49, 51, 53, 54, 55

Best 22 as at any time 2023: Young, Gibcus, Sonsie, Rioli Jnr, Mansell, Cumberland, Pickett, Ross, Miller, Baker, Balta, Bolton, Graham, D Rioli, Broad, Short

Players likely to emerge later: Banks, Clarke, Brown, Ryan



So side by side comparisons...

Picks taken first 3 rounds:

Hawks - 16, 19, 19, 22, 24, 28, 31, 34, 44, 46, 56

v

Tigers - 9, 15, 17, 21, 25, 28, 29, 29, 30, 40, 43, 43, 46, 49, 51, 53, 54, 55


Players in best 22 any time within a year after the trades were done + emerging players.....

Hawks - Burton, Hardwick, Ceglar, Smith, Puopolo, Stratton, Duryea, Sicily, Breust, Shiels, Lewis

V

Richmond - Young, Gibcus, Sonsie, Rioli Jnr, Mansell, Cumberland, Pickett, Ross, Miller, Baker, Balta, Bolton, Graham, D Rioli, Broad, Short, Banks, Clarke, Brown, Ryan


There is absolutely no comparison whatsoever between the positions these teams were in at the time the Mitchell/O'Meara trades were done on one hand, and the Taranto/Hopper trades on the other. Richmond is brimming over with young talent in comparison to what the Hawks had on their list.

Lol. I like how you include every Richmond player imaginable in "best 22" but leave out a heap of Hawthorn players that would fit then announce:

"See! There is absolutely no comparison!"

Just look at the teams that Hawthorn picked for finals in 2016 and 2018, and the players you conspicuously left out of Hawthorn's "best 22 + emerging players" to see that the only thing your post shows is delusional bias.

Overall the lists look remarkably similar when you actually use a fair comparison.

 

[Noidnadroj]

The wingard trade was sheer madness. The year we got JOM and Tom was really similar to the year you got TT and Hops though. That was the comparison I was seeking to make, and if anything Hawthorn had a stronger list at that time.

Fair enough. You got TOM for unders being #14.

But the JOM trade ended up being very expensive, as you traded 23 (Brad Hill pick) 36 and a F1 (#7) to Saints for pick #10. Then traded #10 and a F2 (#26) for JOM.

So if was effectively

In: JOM

Out: pick 7, pick 23 (Hill) pick 26 and pick 36.

I remember the time, and it’s like Clarko assumed JOM would become the player he’d promised to be when he was 18yo, and he was going to do whatever it took to secure him despite multiple years of knee injuries.

Then the Wingard trade was pretty eye watering also. Burton was a pick #19, so worth probably every bit of that in a trade after a very good season. So it was :

In: Wingard
Out: Pick 15, Pick 19 (Burton) & 35

There was also Jarman Impey for pick-33 in 2017. I won’t count Scully as he was secured for nothing, or Vickery as he was a free agent (we got Shai Bolton with the pick …

So from 2016-2018, in terms of player trades for picks it was:

In: Wingard, Impey, Mitchell, JOM

Out: Picks 7, 14, 15, 19, 23, 26, 33, 35, 36

Total: 7,996 draft points.

For Richmond from 2020-2022, keeping in mind we traded CCJ to North to secure their F2, and this was used to get TT along with 12…. Both picks slipped back. So it was effectively:

In: TT, Hopper,
Out: pick 8, 12, CCJ (19), 31

So if we ignore the late picks, it’s:

TT and Hopper for:

Total: 3,851 draft points.

(Just TOM and JOM was 4,851 points).

So you massively overpaid for JOM at 3,690 draft points. We’ve overpaid for Hopper but it’s around 2,000 points, so pales in comparison. TT looks good value at around 2,000 and TOM was a bargain for #14.

But the 2017-18 years are what has killed you when you had enough information at your fingertips : Impey and Wingard for 15, 19 (Burton) 33 and 35.

This is the mistake Richmond can’t afford to make. We need to take 4-5 quality picks to the draft, focus on a free agent which doesn’t cost picks, or if it’s a trade ensure they are under 25yo and a crucial part of a list build (eg KPF).


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[Meteoric Rise]

Lol. I like how you include every Richmond player imaginable in "best 22" but leave out a heap of Hawthorn players that would fit then announce:

"See! There is absolutely no comparison!"

Just look at the teams that Hawthorn picked for finals in 2016 and 2018, and the players you conspicuously left out of Hawthorn's "best 22 + emerging players" to see that the only thing your post shows is delusional bias.

Overall the lists look remarkably similar when you actually use a fair comparison.

Ok fair enough, let's do it right then.

The last 2016 finals team contained Schoenmakers, and that is it so ok, let's add him to the list.

Langford. Howe. Brand. O'Brien played 16+ games in 2017. Let's add them to the list.

Players in best 22 any time within a year after the trades were done + emerging players.....

Hawks - Burton, Hardwick, Ceglar, Smith, Puopolo, Stratton, Duryea, Sicily, Breust, Shiels, Lewis, Schoenmakers, Langford, Howe, Brand, O'Brien.

Richmond - Young, Gibcus, Sonsie, Rioli Jnr, Mansell, Cumberland, Pickett, Ross, Miller, Baker, Balta, Bolton, Graham, D Rioli, Broad, Short, Banks, Clarke, Brown, Ryan

So let's rank them side by side and see how they look(the rankings are very rough and based on perceived value end of 2016/22, proven performers at the time first, then highest performers, then highest potential):

1. Bolton 23 v Smith 28

2. Balta 23 v Breust 26

3. D Rioli 25 v Shiels 25

4. Short 26 v Stratton 27

5. Baker 24 v Puopolo 29

6. Broad 29 v Duryea 25

7. Graham 24 v Ceglar 25

8. Pickett 30 v Burton 19

9. Cumberland 21 v Schoenmakers 27

10. Gibcus 19 v Langford 24

11. Rioli Jnr 20 v Sicily 21

12. Sonsie 19 v Hardwick 19

13. Miller 23 v Howe 20

14. Clarke 19 v O'Brien 22

15. Mansell 22 v Brand 22

16. Ross 22 v Lewis 18

17. Brown 19

18. Banks 19

19. Young 24

20. Ryan 22


Richmond had more, their players retained from previous 9 drafts were on average younger, and they are better.

We sort of know already how these Hawks players 25 and under at the time have resolved.

Sicily, Shiels, Burton, Hardwick, Lewis are/were pretty good players at least. Duryea has been useful. The rest probably not made a big impact.

For Richmond Bolton, Balta, Baker, D Rioli, Graham are strong proven performers. Young, Ross, Mansell, Rioli Jnr, Cumberland, Sonsie have shown either strong form for a shorter period or consistently decent form for a longer period.

And then to come is Brown, Banks, Clarke, Gibcus, Ryan who are likely to give us about 3 long term players at least.

So the 25 and under lists at the time of the double midfield trades is not comparable, Richmond's is much stronger. Hawks had 6 players 25 and under who went on to amount to anything. And one of those, Burton, was traded away in short order. Richmond looks like they have half a decent team(11 players) who were under 25 when their trades were made. It is a big difference.

Where the Hawks were stronger was the 26+ yo's:

Smith, Breust, Stratton, Puopolo who were nailed on best 22 v Short, Broad, Pickett for Richmond.