Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Noidnadroj]

The way you keep going on about it you might expect it to be a bit more then an extra 2nd rounder and a couple of late picks.

Does that make up for not having a pick inside 40 in 3 of the last 4 drafts?

One of those years without a top-40 pick is because we traded into the 2021 season (when we had 5 picks inside 30).

2024 Tigers have : 6, 25, 26, 39, 43, 44, 62, 70, 74, 80

Given the father sons and academy kids next year, a points trade leaves us with something like:

6, 20, 25, 26, 43, 74, 80

So 912 points for about 1,400. (Get 20 for 39, 43, 44, 62 and 70).

That would make 14 x top-30 picks in the 8 drafts after our first flag. In addition to bringing in TT and Hopper. Again, doesn’t guarantee a thing, particularly if you butcher too many top-30 picks …. but we’ve certainly not ignored the draft at all, despite a narrative otherwise.


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[Gavin Excell]

What do Tiger fans reasonably expect within the next 3 years?

 

[Gavin Excell]

1. Henry
2. Ryan
3. Banks
4. Clarke
5. Gibcus
6. Brown
7. Coulthard
8. Sonsie



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Tigers

 

[Fadge]

What do Tiger fans reasonably expect within the next 3 years?

Very interesting question.

This will be good...

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

What do Tiger fans reasonably expect within the next 3 years?

What strategy is their new coach taking?

You would think they would be better taking a step back to bring through the younger players.

 

[CharacterFirst]

Sorry!

You're forgiven.

 

[Danw0w]

What strategy is their new coach taking?

You would think they would be better taking a step back to bring through the younger players.

I will never understand this attitude. Clubs should always play to win the premiership.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I will never understand this attitude. Clubs should always play to win the premiership.

Short term Richmond are not winning a flag!

So what is your best strategy to win your next flag?

Surely fast tracking your younger players whilst you have a good core of experienced players.

 

[Danw0w]

Short term Richmond are not winning a flag!

So what is your best strategy to win your next flag?

Surely fast tracking your younger players whilst you have a good core of experienced players.

Can I borrow your time machine?

 

[sydney_gws]

Can I borrow your time machine?

I think whoever is worse over the next 3 years has more chance of winning flags in 2027 to 2030.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Can I borrow your time machine?

Do you honestly think you are a flag chance in the next few years?

Really?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

What do Tiger fans reasonably expect within the next 3 years?

I expect an unexpected 3 flags + minor dynasty within the next 5 years. We have come to expect an unexpected 3 flag + minor dynasty every second 4 year period since 2017 and we are due.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Genuine question. Who would you prefer out of each of these?

Cumberland vs O Henry
Ryan vs Neale
Banks vs Knevitt
Clarke vs Dempsey
Gibcus vs O'Sullivan
Brown vs Mullin
Coulthard vs Willis
Sonsie vs Clark

I simply don't know enough about the Geelong cadets to pass judgement. But I know enough about how our 8 listed players are tracking to bet they'll combine to make up about 6 decent footballers, who with natural attrition will be reduced to maybe 4 by their late 20's.

 

[Danw0w]

Do you honestly think you are a flag chance in the next few years?

Really?

Funny. A lot of people said the same thing ahead of the 2017 season.

 

[Danw0w]

I think whoever is worse over the next 3 years has more chance of winning flags in 2027 to 2030.

That's not necessarily how it works. Carlton were worse than Collingwood in the 2010s and yet Collingwood are the ones with a flag.

 

[BF Tiger]

What do Tiger fans reasonably expect within the next 3 years?

The biggest factor in this right now is not the playing list. It’s Yze and the game plan he implements.

Have the right game plan and player development for the players we have and we could absolutely be challenging. Three years is a long time in football.

Could also go pear shape. Not denying that that is a possibility.

Next year is free swing. If we made finals it’d be great but I think it’s unlikely. So much depends on Yze.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Funny. A lot of people said the same thing ahead of the 2017 season.

You need to make the finals, particularly the top 4 to win a flag.

Richmond don't look close to the top 4 anymore.

Dusty isn't the regular match winner he was.

 

[nut]

What do Tiger fans reasonably expect within the next 3 years?

If we could have a similar run with injuries as you guys did in 22 anything is possible.

I can see us nudging finals if Lynch, Martin, Grimes, Bolton, Balta, Baker, Taranto, Hopper, Short, Graham, Broad, Rioli, Vlastuin and Prestia have some injury luck and can play 90% of games…
Added with some improvement from some kids like Gibcus, Young, Brown,Banks, Coultard, M Rioli, Ryan, etc…

Dare to dream…

 

[Noidnadroj]

Do you honestly think you are a flag chance in the next few years?

Really?

GWS lost Hill, TT and Hopper in the off-season, having lost Cameron 2-years prior. They were a poor couple of umpiring decision off a GF.

Collingwood finished 17th in 2021, with an ageing Sidey and Pendles, having let go Grundy, Treloar and others. Their young stocks were pretty thin. They went PF - GF.

Geelong were demolished in the 2021 PF and had the oldest list in history. They got a great injury run in 2022, had a handful of youngsters emerge from nowhere (SDK, Stengle, Holmes, Close), had their golden oldies wind back the clock and won the flag.

If you have a nucleus of quality players 24yo+ and get a good with injuries anything is possible. But if Lynch can’t make it back, Prestia gets more soft tissue injuries, Gibcus does his hammy, Grimes produces the same garbage he did in 2023 again etc… Tigers won’t be contending.

So my answer is there are far too many unknowns at Richmond .. new coach, new gameplan, talented but largely untried youth, long-term injured players returning.

Odds are not everything will go seamlessly and it will be a year of transition, where results become secondary to developing the list and Yze working out who remains 2025 onwards.

But if we get lucky with injuries and they pick
up the new gameplan quickly, and a few youngsters emerge quickly, nothing should be off the table. Remember, SDK had played 1-game leading into 2022 and Stengle was at his third club and made AA… sh*t happens that nobody predicted. GWS were 3-8 this year weren’t they? Then some youngsters kicked into gear, the gameplan became entrenched and a couple of umpiring howlers off a granny.

There’s enough quality from 24-31yo where there’s every reason to be optimistic.



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[sydney_gws]

That's not necessarily how it works. Carlton were worse than Collingwood in the 2010s and yet Collingwood are the ones with a flag.

That's true. Both clubs have been up for so long that they need some top 5 picks/ elite father sons.
That was what Selwood, Hawkins,Cotchin,Dusty are.
Cats also had pretty good picks to give up for Dangerfield, Cameron.

 

[Footy Smarts]

1. Henry
2. Ryan
3. Banks
4. Clarke
5. Gibcus
6. Brown
7. Coulthard
8. Sonsie



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Sonsie is a late 20s pick 2 seasons into his career who played his last 12 games at VFL level without being promoted.

Clark is a pick 8 who was always very highly rated. Showed plenty on debut as sub and then unfortunately was injured for the rest of his first year.

The rest are plausible even if I disagree with some. But Sonsie over Clark feels tough to justify.

 

[Grrr]

What do Tiger fans reasonably expect within the next 3 years?

There is no reason to think we will be a worse side than last year.

This is very much dependant on Lynch, if he comes back and plays half as well as '22 then that is a big plus.
Gibcus is class and will be a very good player. He is being held back as a precaution, but there is no hamstring issue as yet, so again fingers crossed.

We will not miss Cotchin, he can easily be replace as his output last season was good to average.
Riewoldt kicked 0 goals in 9 games last season, 1 goal in another 7. That's little return from your 'best' forward.
Prestia was average most of the season, if he continues like that he will be replace. Grimes much the same.

Other than those two age is not really a concern for any of our players, a few around the 30 mark but that is not old. Dusty, but he finished off the year like Dusty of old and looks very sharp at training. He had a couple of rough years, so he could easily have a very good year.

We do have a lot of young players who have now had a couple of seasons of solid VFL footy under their belts an look far better players for it than they did at the start of the year. Dow, Sonsie, Cumberland will have better seasons than last, they could not have worse.

I do not see any reason why we will fall off a cliff. Dimma lost the players last year, he said as much, even Cotchin said it. No side plays well in that situation, and new coaches usually have an immediate positive effect.I know the young players in particular will be raring to go.

How that translates to ladder position, I don't really care, I just want to see us play a more exciting game and a good smattering of young players playing like they are enjoying their football. That usually translates to good outcomes.

 

[Grrr]

Sonsie is a late 20s pick 2 seasons into his career who played his last 12 games at VFL level without being promoted.

Clark is a pick 8 who was always very highly rated. Showed plenty on debut as sub and then unfortunately was injured for the rest of his first year.

The rest are plausible even if I disagree with some. But Sonsie over Clark feels tough to justify.

True about Sonsie, but the year before he was just about our best player in the Brisbane final in the first half. Has heaps of skill and class, just needed to play nose over footy for a good spell. Was our best VFL player by the end of in the VFL. That is what VFL is good for, teaching young players to play all game every game, something they don't usually do in the higher levels. Clarke at pic 8 is obviously going to be a good player, Geelong don't often stuff up early pics.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Sonsie is a late 20s pick 2 seasons into his career who played his last 12 games at VFL level without being promoted.

Clark is a pick 8 who was always very highly rated. Showed plenty on debut as sub and then unfortunately was injured for the rest of his first year.

The rest are plausible even if I disagree with some. But Sonsie over Clark feels tough to justify.

I was semi joking … there’s really not enough data on any of those players to judge. But i would take the Tigers cohort if given the choice … which means zip. Time will tell.


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[Footy Smarts]

I was semi joking … there’s really not enough data on any of those players to judge. But i would take the Tigers cohort if given the choice … which means zip. Time will tell.


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It's interesting isn't it.

You said O Henry over Cumberland which seems pretty obvious given their current career points. And you were semi joking in picking Clark over Sonsie (I take that as you admitting that realistically Clark is more likely to make it right?). Yet you would take the Tigers cohort.

Which of the comparisons do you think clearly favour the tigers to make up for those 2?