Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Noidnadroj]

It's interesting isn't it.

You said O Henry over Cumberland which seems pretty obvious given their current career points. And you were semi joking in picking Clark over Sonsie (I take that as you admitting that realistically Clark is more likely to make it right?). Yet you would take the Tigers cohort.

Which of the comparisons do you think clearly favour the tigers to make up for those 2?

Nah, I was semi joking with the entire list. I believe Henry is an obvious one, albeit I still hold great hope for Cumberland given he kicked 19 goals in his first 9 games at the end of 2022 (2 as sub).

But to be as fair as I can:

Ryan v Neale: Ryan. He’s 206cm and showed some great promise in 2023. Got tired but I’d take him over Neale with what I’ve seen.

Banks v Knevitt: Banks. This is a bit controversial, but Banks looks like being an excellent player, and if you hear him interviewed has leadership written all over him. He played some very promising games in 2023. Knevitt has shown a bit, but I’m bullish on Banks being a future star.

Clarke v Dempsey: Clarke. Only based on him being a top-30 draft pick who kicked 11 goals in 13 games this year. Dempsey has had limited opportunities and being sub 4 times in 5 games in 2023. I’d take Clarke.

Gibcus v O’Sullivan. Gibcus. Played 18-games in debut year which was full of promise for a KPP. O’Sullivan is a complete unknown and not rated as highly as Gibcus in their respective draft years.

Brown v Mullin. Brown. Top-20 pick who has had a few injury troubles. Got 16-touches on debut and looked very good. I’ll be very disappointed if he’s not a better player than a 23yo who has barely played AFL.

Coulthard v Willis. Willis. For reasons above, Willis was a pick #32 and based on very limited exposure I’d take the higher rated youngster.

Sonsie v Clark: Clark. I was torn here as Sonsie was BOG at half time of an EF against Lions, and is very talented and was touted as a potential #1 as a 16yo. But he was also putrid in the few games he played this year and went off the rails a bit including the punch on the VFL. So to be fair whilst I’m optimistic about Sonsie, if you put a gun to my head I’d take Clark.



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[Footy Smarts]

Nah, I was semi joking with the entire list. I believe Henry is an obvious one, albeit I still hold great hope for Cumberland given he kicked 19 goals in his first 9 games at the end of 2022 (2 as sub).

But to be as fair as I can:

Ryan v Neale: Ryan. He’s 206cm and showed some great promise in 2023. Got tired but I’d take him over Neale with what I’ve seen.

Banks v Knevitt: Banks. This is a bit controversial, but Banks looks like being an excellent player, and if you hear him interviewed has leadership written all over him. He played some very promising games in 2023. Knevitt has shown a bit, but I’m bullish on Banks being a future star.

Clarke v Dempsey: Clarke. Only based on him being a top-30 draft pick who kicked 11 goals in 13 games this year. Dempsey has had limited opportunities and being sub 4 times in 5 games in 2023. I’d take Clarke.

Gibcus v O’Sullivan. Gibcus. Played 18-games in debut year which was full of promise for a KPP. O’Sullivan is a complete unknown and not rated as highly as Gibcus in their respective draft years.

Brown v Mullin. Brown. Top-20 pick who has had a few injury troubles. Got 16-touches on debut and looked very good. I’ll be very disappointed if he’s not a better player than a 23yo who has barely played AFL.

Coulthard v Willis. Willis. For reasons above, Willis was a pick #32 and based on very limited exposure I’d take the higher rated youngster.

Sonsie v Clark: Clark. I was torn here as Sonsie was BOG at half time of an EF against Lions, and is very talented and was touted as a potential #1 as a 16yo. But he was also putrid in the few games he played this year and went off the rails a bit including the punch on the VFL. So to be fair whilst I’m optimistic about Sonsie, if you put a gun to my head I’d take Clark.



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This is all reasonable.

I think O Henry is the only one who is currently a long way above the direct comparison in terms of performance. And Clark is well above in terms of junior ranking so it's hard to justify Sonsie who hasn't done much to move up the rankings.

The rest I see as marginal. If I were to give the reasons to pick the Geelong players that you haven't they'd be (not that I agree with all of them):

Ryan v Neale: Neale was taken earlier in the same draft and is almost 2 years younger. According to Scott we only rushed back Hawkins at the start of the year when he was underdone cause Neale went down injured late in the preseason so they clearly rate him.

Banks v Knevitt: Knevitt was taken 4 picks earlier in the same draft and has played more footy in a better team since being drafted.

Clarke v Dempsey: Dempsey had an extraordinary VFL season (37 coaches votes and team of the year in only 14 games). He hasn't yet translated that fully to AFL but he's come a long way for a skinny basketballer who didn't go through the junior programs. Honestly I'm super bullish on Dempsey. But I like the look of Clarke too.

Gibcus v O’Sullivan: both extremely highly rated in their drafts. A full season missed with a highly complex injury more than makes up for 2 draft spots difference.

Brown v Mullin: Mullin is the highest credentialed Irishman to come out and play the game. He won the equivalent of the rising star twice and was selected in the equivalent of the AA once. He debuted in just his 4th competitive game, played 6 games in his debut season and has already signed a contract extension. Brown played 26 VFL games in his first 2 years and didn't earn a debut until the last round with players retiring or being rested.

The way I see it O Henry is a clear win. Clark is a win. And the rest are marginal. So I'd take the Geelong list fairly comfortably. If course there are no guarantees and it's absolutely possible Richmond's group end up better.

I think I've included all the highest rated Richmond kids. I deliberately didn't include Holmes, SDK, Bruhn or Conway. They'd be 4 of Geelong's best 7 young talents (Henry, O'Sullivan and Clark the other 3).

 

[tiger_tough]

Short term Richmond are not winning a flag!

So what is your best strategy to win your next flag?

Surely fast tracking your younger players whilst you have a good core of experienced players.

What older players would you leave out for youngsters? Grimes, McIntosh and Pickett are the 3 and I dont expect McIntosh or Pickett to be best 23. Grimes...unsure, had a shocker last year but deserves the chance to lock in a spot.

So who else would you be dropping to fast track the development?

 

[Noidnadroj]

This is all reasonable.

I think O Henry is the only one who is currently a long way above the direct comparison in terms of performance. And Clark is well above in terms of junior ranking so it's hard to justify Sonsie who hasn't done much to move up the rankings.

The rest I see as marginal. If I were to give the reasons to pick the Geelong players that you haven't they'd be (not that I agree with all of them):

Ryan v Neale: Neale was taken earlier in the same draft and is almost 2 years younger. According to Scott we only rushed back Hawkins at the start of the year when he was underdone cause Neale went down injured late in the preseason so they clearly rate him.

Banks v Knevitt: Knevitt was taken 4 picks earlier in the same draft and has played more footy in a better team since being drafted.

Clarke v Dempsey: Dempsey had an extraordinary VFL season (37 coaches votes and team of the year in only 14 games). He hasn't yet translated that fully to AFL but he's come a long way for a skinny basketballer who didn't go through the junior programs. Honestly I'm super bullish on Dempsey. But I like the look of Clarke too.

Gibcus v O’Sullivan: both extremely highly rated in their drafts. A full season missed with a highly complex injury more than makes up for 2 draft spots difference.

Brown v Mullin: Mullin is the highest credentialed Irishman to come out and play the game. He won the equivalent of the rising star twice and was selected in the equivalent of the AA once. He debuted in just his 4th competitive game, played 6 games in his debut season and has already signed a contract extension. Brown played 26 VFL games in his first 2 years and didn't earn a debut until the last round with players retiring or being rested.

The way I see it O Henry is a clear win. Clark is a win. And the rest are marginal. So I'd take the Geelong list fairly comfortably. If course there are no guarantees and it's absolutely possible Richmond's group end up better.

I think I've included all the highest rated Richmond kids. I deliberately didn't include Holmes, SDK, Bruhn or Conway. They'd be 4 of Geelong's best 7 young talents (Henry, O'Sullivan and Clark the other 3).

Don’t know what your criteria was, but Dow (22yo) looks like he might make a career. Finished the season with 21/16/27 touches in just his 15-17th games. He was always very light and when drafted at pick-20 Richmond said he may take a few years to develop. He’s a zippy clearance player with fast hands (albeit he’s not big) so has always been behind Cotch, Martin, Prestia and Bolton… no guarantees but he was promising to close out the season.

Tresize also looks promising. Picked up in mid-season draft of 2023. Won the VFL B&F and got 17 touches on debut in final round. A good size and very athletic.

Bauer was mid-season pick in 2022. Has played good footy both forward and back in VFL. Interestingly Richmond have extended him to end of 2025 which suggests the club rates him.

I’d be surprised if at least two of those three above don’t make careers for themselves at AFL level.


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[tiger_tough]

Sonsie is a late 20s pick 2 seasons into his career who played his last 12 games at VFL level without being promoted.

Clark is a pick 8 who was always very highly rated. Showed plenty on debut as sub and then unfortunately was injured for the rest of his first year.

The rest are plausible even if I disagree with some. But Sonsie over Clark feels tough to justify.

He would have been promoted had he not knocked that North blokes head off in the VFL.

I expect him to be a lock in the 22 by the end of the year.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

What older players would you leave out for youngsters? Grimes, McIntosh and Pickett are the 3 and I dont expect McIntosh or Pickett to be best 23. Grimes...unsure, had a shocker last year but deserves the chance to lock in a spot.

So who else would you be dropping to fast track the development?

As I said in my post, it's more about fast-tracking you high end young talent whilst you have a good core of experienced players, to get them to 50+ games for yout next flag assault.

 

[tiger_tough]

As I said in my post, it's more about fast-tracking you high end young talent whilst you have a good core of experienced players, to get them to 50+ games for yout next flag assault.

So....tanking?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

So....tanking?

Not at all.

Richmond won't win the spoon as have a good core of experience.

 

[tiger_tough]

Not at all.

Richmond win the spoon as have a good core of experience.

English?

 

[Caligo]

So....tanking?

I think there is a gap between trying to get a bit of experience into promising young players and trying to create conditions to lose games. Adelaide for example is a pretty young team but nobody could say they are tanking.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

English?

Missed won't.

Edited now.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Don’t know what your criteria was, but Dow (22yo) looks like he might make a career. Finished the season with 21/16/27 touches in just his 15-17th games. He was always very light and when drafted at pick-20 Richmond said he may take a few years to develop. He’s a zippy clearance player with fast hands (albeit he’s not big) so has always been behind Cotch, Martin, Prestia and Bolton… no guarantees but he was promising to close out the season.

Tresize also looks promising. Picked up in mid-season draft of 2023. Won the VFL B&F and got 17 touches on debut in final round. A good size and very athletic.

Bauer was mid-season pick in 2022. Has played good footy both forward and back in VFL. Interestingly Richmond have extended him to end of 2025 which suggests the club rates him.

I’d be surprised if at least two of those three above don’t make careers for themselves at AFL level.


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I was just picking what I thought were the best handful of young prospects at Richmond and then putting them against the best comparison at Geelong. It wasn't an exhaustive list.

Just from the typical attrition rate of young players it's highly unlikely that 2 or more of Dow, Bauer and Tresize play say 150+ games. You're taking about a midfielder 4 seasons into his career that's managed 17 games (only 12 not being sub or subbed out) and 2 midseason draftees. If 1 of them makes it in any significant way it would be a big win.

 

[tiger_tough]

I think there is a gap between trying to get a bit of experience into promising young players and trying to create conditions to lose games. Adelaide for example is a pretty young team but nobody could say they are tanking.

Yeah but they just have a younger list overall. They still played all the older guys - Tex, Sloane before he got injured (and re-signed him), Brodie Smith etc. Plus brought in Matt Crouch late.

 

[Caligo]

Yeah but they just have a younger list overall. They still played all the older guys - Tex, Sloane before he got injured (and re-signed him), Brodie Smith etc. Plus brought in Matt Crouch late.

Absolutely. And I don't think anybody is saying don't play prestia or lynch.

There is a balance you can find without trying to lose (tanking). I think so anyhow.

 

[TheUnicorn]

Average age at Opening Round, 2024: 24.9 (equal fourth oldest)
Average games: 71.1 (eighth most experienced)
Most games: Dustin Martin (289)
Players with 100-plus games: 15
Players with less than 50 games: 25
Most finals games: Dustin Martin and Nick Vlastuin

1

Nick Vlastuin

Age

30

Ht

187cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

6.6

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.7

4star

MG

269.3

4star

D

13.3

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.3

3star

M

4.9

5star

T

1.8

3star

MG

257.6

4star

D

20.2

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

8.8

5star

M

7.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

(16)
Players with finals experience: 24

Average age at Opening Round, 2024: 25.4 (second oldest)
Average games: 88.6 (second most experienced)
Most games: Tom Hawkins

26

Tom Hawkins

Age

36

Ht

197cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.9

4star

G

2.1

5star

D

12.7

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.1

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.2

5star

(347)
Players with 100-plus games: 18
Players with less than 50 games: 22
Most finals games: Tom Hawkins

26

Tom Hawkins

Age

36

Ht

197cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.9

4star

G

2.1

5star

D

12.7

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.1

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.2

5star

(32)
Players with finals experience: 23

List analysis: Where your club ranks for age and experience

Who has the oldest list, who has the youngest, and which club has the most experience heading into 2024?

www.afl.com.au

 

[Dr Tigris]

Average age at Opening Round, 2024: 24.9 (equal fourth oldest)
Average games: 71.1 (eighth most experienced)
Most games: Dustin Martin (289)
Players with 100-plus games: 15
Players with less than 50 games: 25
Most finals games: Dustin Martin and Nick Vlastuin (16)
Players with finals experience: 24

Average age at Opening Round, 2024: 25.4 (second oldest)
Average games: 88.6 (second most experienced)
Most games: Tom Hawkins (347)
Players with 100-plus games: 18
Players with less than 50 games: 22
Most finals games: Tom Hawkins (32)
Players with finals experience: 23

List analysis: Where your club ranks for age and experience

Who has the oldest list, who has the youngest, and which club has the most experience heading into 2024?

www.afl.com.au

That makes it look very similar between the 2 teams. Still very experienced but with a lot of young guys. Transitioning without dropping too much it looks like.

Young guys with talent, i.e. most draftees, tend to develop better with solid older players to act as role models and to 'protect' them when young. My guess right now is that both clubs will bring through a solid core for the next decade over the next few years. Both have high end talent, but nowhere near as much as GC, North etc. Add in a couple of good smart trades / FAs and voila you have a contender.

Tigers have an amazing pick hand next year for picks/trades, so might be able to step into more good players quickly. That should, hopefully, build out the list refresh very quickly.

Cats have done a great job of regenerating the list in the last few years.

To me the Cats are ahead on young talent right now. But I suspect the tigers have enough potential to catch up if things go right. Add in more good picks, or trades and I reckon either club could be contending over the next few years. (of course, assuming good injury etc run to older players)

 

[Noidnadroj]

Sonsie is a late 20s pick 2 seasons into his career who played his last 12 games at VFL level without being promoted.

Clark is a pick 8 who was always very highly rated. Showed plenty on debut as sub and then unfortunately was injured for the rest of his first year.

The rest are plausible even if I disagree with some. But Sonsie over Clark feels tough to justify.

Have you checked Sonsie’s debut year ?

Comparing Sonsie’s debut year of 2022 with Knevitt’s 2023 and Bruhn’s 2023:

Disposals: 17.6 v 11.9 v 16.3
Goals: 0.4 v 0.2 v 0.4
GA’s: 0.6 v 0.5 v 0.3
I50’s: 2.4 v 2.2 v 2.9
Clearances: 2.3 v 0.6 v 2.9
SI’s : 6.7 v 3.0 v 3.9
Turnovers: 2.1 v 3.0 v 3.7

Stats aren’t everything but they are enough to show he’s got no issue finding the ball or using it well… and he easily eclipsed Knevitts output.

He was close to BOG in the first half of EF at the GABBA with 15 touches and a goal in just his 7th game.

He seemed to go off the rails a bit in 2023 and as shown by his punch must have been a bit mentally fried.

But his outstanding first 7-games as a 19yo shows there’s every reason to be optimistic with Sonsie, and many would take him over a totally unproven Clark.




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[tiger_tough]

Absolutely. And I don't think anybody is saying don't play prestia or lynch.

There is a balance you can find without trying to lose (tanking). I think so anyhow.

If Yze picks the team on merit I'm hoping McIntosh and Pickett are no longer regulars. Probably Grimes too and the fact he's dropped the C suggests it's a chance. That leaves Dusty, Prestia and Lynch as the next 3 oldest players on the list (apart from Naismith who will be ruck insurance), all 3 are clearly in our best side.

That's a start.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Have you checked Sonsie’s debut year ?

Comparing Sonsie’s debut year of 2022 with Knevitt’s 2023 and Bruhn’s 2023:

Disposals: 17.6 v 11.9 v 16.3
Goals: 0.4 v 0.2 v 0.4
GA’s: 0.6 v 0.5 v 0.3
I50’s: 2.4 v 2.2 v 2.9
Clearances: 2.3 v 0.6 v 2.9
SI’s : 6.7 v 3.0 v 3.9
Turnovers: 2.1 v 3.0 v 3.7

Stats aren’t everything but they are enough to show he’s got no issue finding the ball or using it well… and he easily eclipsed Knevitts output.

He was close to BOG in the first half of EF at the GABBA with 15 touches and a goal in just his 7th game.

He seemed to go off the rails a bit in 2023 and as shown by his punch must have been a bit mentally fried.

But his outstanding first 7-games as a 19yo shows there’s every reason to be optimistic with Sonsie, and many would take him over a totally unproven Clark.




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Why are you comparing a guy who played 77% time on ground (Sonsie) with guys who played 62% (Bruhn mainly due to in game injuries) and 59% (Knevitt mainly due to being sub a few times)?

Knevitt was playing as a defensive winger so comparing him to a midfielder is absurd. Once you adjust for time on ground Bruhn was clearly superior to Sonsie and Knevitt was likely better too (eg clearly higher supercoach per time on ground despite playing a more defensive role).

And we're supposed to ignore him having a terrible second season?

Any neutral would take the much higher rated junior who had a bad injury run in their first year over a guy who had a handful of ok games in their first year and a terrible second season. In an open draft now Clark would go pick 10-15 (taken a hit due to injury compared to pick 8 initially). Sonsie would be lucky to go top 30.

 

[Footy Smarts]

He was close to BOG in the first half of EF at the GABBA with 15 touches and a goal in just his 7th game.

It's pretty incredible how this performance has been blown up. He had the worst disposal efficiency of any Richmond player at under 50%. And if you're right that he got 15 touches in the first half then he got 2 in the second.

For a first year player that's not an issue. But it sure doesn't suggest he's a star. And backing that up with barely cracking a game in his second year and finishing the season by King hitting an opponent behind play doesn't scream highly valuable player.

He might make it. He's got some talent. But nobody is giving up more for him now than when he was drafted.

 

[Footy Smarts]

If Yze picks the team on merit I'm hoping McIntosh and Pickett are no longer regulars. Probably Grimes too and the fact he's dropped the C suggests it's a chance. That leaves Dusty, Prestia and Lynch as the next 3 oldest players on the list (apart from Naismith who will be ruck insurance), all 3 are clearly our best handful.

That's a start.

Every time I watched Richmond I thought McIntosh was poor. But he finished 9th in your best and fairest.

Was he just better than I thought?

 

[tiger_tough]

Every time I watched Richmond I thought McIntosh was poor. But he finished 9th in your best and fairest.

Was he just better than I thought?

Dimma and Dimma mkII loved him. He was gifted far too many games last year. He can run all day and is a team player but he's a very limited footballer. Really hoping he becomes handy depth from now on. Sam Banks should start r1 r0 on a wing in his spot.

 

[Noidnadroj]

It's pretty incredible how this performance has been blown up. He had the worst disposal efficiency of any Richmond player at under 50%. And if you're right that he got 15 touches in the first half then he got 2 in the second.

For a first year player that's not an issue. But it sure doesn't suggest he's a star. And backing that up with barely cracking a game in his second year and finishing the season by King hitting an opponent behind play doesn't scream highly valuable player.

He might make it. He's got some talent. But nobody is giving up more for him now than when he was drafted.

Yes, he tired being a 19yo, but had a superb first half with 15 touches and a goal. Thats pretty good going in your 7th game at the GABBA.

He ended with match with 17 touches so faded badly, but only 1 clanger. For Richmond he was 4th for SI’s, 4th for clearances, 6th for disposals and 3rd for tackles. You’d be thrilled if any first year player delivered that performance in any game, let alone a tightly contested GABBA final.

As for Bruhn … his ball use is a concern. For midfielders in 2023 his rate of turnovers per disposal was 5th worst in the competition at 4.4 disposals per turnover.


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[Meteoric Rise]

You really give up on your ludicrous arguments way too easily these days MR. I see you're just leaving the Mooney thing now.

What was the Mooney thing again?

Mooney to me is proof that when a spud plays as the key forward target for a really strong team he can produce passable performances. Dusty on the other hand is proof that when a gun plays deep forward at crucial times in a really strong side he can produce insane performances.

 

[Mr Meow]

What was the Mooney thing again?

Mooney to me is proof that when a spud plays as the key forward target for a really strong team he can produce passable performances. Dusty on the other hand is proof that when a gun plays deep forward at crucial times in a really strong side he can produce insane performances.

This was from ages ago, we had a few posts each about it after.

I never said Mooney was a star. But if Kozzy has a career matching his then Richmond have found a bargain and will be delighted.

The more you add disclaimers about strong teams, good service and lots of goals/assists in big finals wins being because of that - the more I'm confused. Simply because you spent the better part of a year arguing against that when I mentioned it in terms of Martin finals in dominant premiership winning finals vs the 5 finals series Richmond did not make a grand final.