Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[DanA]

McAuliffe is 18 and has played 2 VFL games, so he's kid, but yes you have to translate it into AFL ability.

Sounds like you’ve got a ripping VFL player.

 

[Mr Meow]

Impressive, your top end young players are starting to get around that experience/age where they really feel at home.

Not saying Richmond was equivalent vs Swans, but some pretty good games by players almost unheard of or 'taking us nowhere', (including myself at times), Campbell, Mansell, Rioli Jnr, Dow, Ross, Miller and Young. Sonsie not bad for his first game back and playing out of position. Lefau was better.

Seems like both sides have some decent youth coming on. Injuries have hit Richmond pretty hard, so depth will be tested further but good signs in the VFL. 18 year old MacAuliffe, BOG in the middle 2 weeks in a row and a few others turning up.

These Bruhn, O.Henry, Holmes types have hovered around the 8th-20th best players on the field not too infrequently since being in the team. Which doesn't sound that impressive but from 44 players it's not bad if you're in your first few seasons and not done superstar top 5 draft pick.

I guess the point is, you can play very well as a youngster without the type of recognition (e.g coaches votes) that would make the wider public pay attention.

All 3 of these players are eligible for the 22under22 team but even when Geelong youngsters have good seasons, the neutral fans don't seem to vote them in. Holmes at half back rather than wing (where they love shoving inside mids) might help his chances.

 

[Morro]

Not here to dick measure, but a couple of points that should be considered,

We have plenty of kids / young players now starting to prove they are AFL quality despite most on here saying we have no youth coming through
We have some kids killing it at VFL level with our VFL team starting the year very well

The narrative that we have no youth has already be debunked and we are a few weeks in. Are we ahead of the Cats in a rebuild, only time will tell. For now, their older players are playing better than ours.

 

[juss]

It's alright I'm mainly just having a laugh. You do seem to like talking up Richmond kids based on VFL form.

But the link between a kid dominating at VFL level as a mid with little positional flexibility and having a good AFL career is thin. I remember how excited Geelong fans got when Dean Gore and Charlie Constable would rack up big numbers and were in the bests every week. Turns out it's an incredibly high bar to make it as an AFL mid. So it's the VFL guys with particular positional skills like Gryan Miers, Zach Guthrie and Jack Henry that become good long-term AFL players despite rarely if ever being BOG at VFL level.

I wish McAuliffe nothing but the best. I hope he can break the mould.

Positional flexibility isn't really a necessity to be a good AFL player. So many players are great at what they do, but wouldn't do well outside of those positions.

Macaullife has been very impressive so far at the level he's played at. He doesn't need to come into the AFL yet and dominate to have a good AFL career. The signs are good though that we've found a value pick given he was taken in the 40s.

Sure it might not translate to AFL level, but no one sensible is going to make that call this early on, the only thing we can rate him on so far is how he's played in the VFL, which is close to 2x BOG performances in his first couple of games as a first year midfielder. That's a good start to a developing players career any way you look at it.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Not here to dick measure, but a couple of points that should be considered,

We have plenty of kids / young players now starting to prove they are AFL quality despite most on here saying we have no youth coming through
We have some kids killing it at VFL level with our VFL team starting the year very well

The narrative that we have no youth has already be debunked and we are a few weeks in. Are we ahead of the Cats in a rebuild, only time will tell. For now, their older players are playing better than ours.

You've certainly had a few promising performances. Mansell has improved a lot, Rioli Jnr looks back to form and Campbell moves really well.

But there's never a club that has literally no youth. That's just silly. I still don't see the volume and quality of young players to be close to any other team in the league.

If we're comparing to Geelong (cause that's the thread) all objective measures show a huge gulf between the performance of the young players so far this year.

In 4 games this year the youngest player to receive coaches votes for Richmond is 24 year old Noah Balta. Good player but calling a 24 year old young is really stretching it. No young Richmond player is putting in match changing performances being recognised by the coaches.

In comparison 4 Geelong players aged 21 or younger have received coaches votes this year in just 3 games. Dempsey, Bruhn, O Henry and Holmes twice. These guys look like elite young players having major impacts on games. I, and the coaches, don't see a single equivalent at Richmond.

 

[sr36]

I bet they wouldn't.

What are these massive flaws. He kicks goals, he tackles, he makes things happen around the ball, he is very aggressive, he is a very good mark for his size. His flaws are that he doesn't always concentrate, gets a bit down on himself when he makes a mistake, didn't play to Hardwick/McQualters structures, that's about it. Even the detractors on the Richmond board will agree with what I'm saying. If you know better after watching every VFL and AFL match he has played, like most of us have, then do tell.

But even so, he has done way more than Mansell and Rioli, at both AFL and VFL level, that is not even disputable.

That's a pretty big issue if you want to be selected, and in terms of how a team performs.

 

[Footy Smarts]

That's a pretty big issue if you want to be selected, and in terms of how a team performs.

It's pretty amazing how far back Cumberland is now. Can't make the extended squad with at least 7 best 22 including both key forwards missing.

 

[BF Tiger]

Great clubs don't spend 5 to 10 years in the bottom 4 rebuilding.

Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood.

8 flags and 18 Grand Final appearances between them since 2002.

When is the most recent period any of these teams had a 'rebuild'?

So the “Daicos Effect” is a myth because nothing needed to be re-built. Thanks for clearing that up. Make sure you mention it in the Daicos GOAT thread.

 

[sr36]

It's pretty amazing how far back Cumberland is now. Can't make the extended squad with at least 7 best 22 including both key forwards missing.

Some blokes just don't get systems. If he's not yet running the patterns they want, you can't select him. To be a berserker who does his own thing - you've got to be a star.

 

[sr36]

Great clubs don't spend 5 to 10 years in the bottom 4 rebuilding.

Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood.

8 flags and 18 Grand Final appearances between them since 2002.

When is the most recent period any of these teams had a 'rebuild'?

All clubs have to re-build - time takes them all. Pies have got two players left from 2010. Cats maybe 1 left from 2011. The question is whether you have to become really shit to replace your players and remain a decent team. The simple answer is no. You can simply continually build - adding and replacing players every year. Hopefully we'll stop crapping on about how these spooners are in such a great position for the future with stars coming through.

 

[Grrr]

That's a pretty big issue if you want to be selected, and in terms of how a team performs.

It is when your coach is so obsessed with structures. As Hardwick said himself, Dusty and Bolton don't do the structures well, so can't have another one. You should know, Buckley vs McRae, Hardwick of 2017 vs Hardwick of 2023, massive difference in demands in regard to structures.

 

[sr36]

It is when your coach is so obsessed with structures. As Hardwick said himself, Dusty and Bolton don't do the structures well, so can't have another one. You should know, Buckley vs McRae, Hardwick of 2017 vs Hardwick of 2023, massive difference in demands in regard to structures.

Disagree with that. Bucks and Fly both heavily into defensive structures, but Macrae has added in better attacking structures. It may look like blokes just creatively doing their own thing - but they drill the bejesus out of those running patterns in order to get people running through the right patterns to make it work. I suspect the same with the difference between early Hardwick and the successful version - it's his assistants doeing it for us.

Malthouse used to have most of the team playing a rigid system with a few berserkers.

 

[Morro]

You've certainly had a few promising performances. Mansell has improved a lot, Rioli Jnr looks back to form and Campbell moves really well.

But there's never a club that has literally no youth. That's just silly. I still don't see the volume and quality of young players to be close to any other team in the league.

If we're comparing to Geelong (cause that's the thread) all objective measures show a huge gulf between the performance of the young players so far this year.

In 4 games this year the youngest player to receive coaches votes for Richmond is 24 year old Noah Balta. Good player but calling a 24 year old young is really stretching it. No young Richmond player is putting in match changing performances being recognised by the coaches.

In comparison 4 Geelong players aged 21 or younger have received coaches votes this year in just 3 games. Dempsey, Bruhn, O Henry and Holmes twice. These guys look like elite young players having major impacts on games. I, and the coaches, don't see a single equivalent at Richmond.

Maybe so, but this thread argued black and blue that we had no promising kids, its also worth looking at the amount f games played for your kids mentioned v ours.

Campbell looks like being a very good player
Sonsie killed VFL now back after a huge pre season looks a classy type and has proven he can play
Miller 2 x very good games at Full back looks like he's arrived
M Rioli building very nicely
Mansell looking likely
Gibcus looks the goods and potential A class quality but who knows after this injury
Mcauliffe - 2 x best on grounds in the VFL
Brown looks every bit a very good player
Dow looks like he belongs
Ross finally getting some credit after a breakout year

There are a few more but you get my point.

Now while we may not have the 18-21 year old quality of the Cats butI would argue, our players in their mid 20's are far better quality however your older stars are playing better footy and staying on the park.

This year with our draft hand, we could end up with 2 x 18 year old stars and some B grader/s and this argument suddenly goes away.

Its nowhere near as dire as oppo fans want it to be is my point.

 

[Grrr]

You've certainly had a few promising performances. Mansell has improved a lot, Rioli Jnr looks back to form and Campbell moves really well.

But there's never a club that has literally no youth. That's just silly. I still don't see the volume and quality of young players to be close to any other team in the league.

If we're comparing to Geelong (cause that's the thread) all objective measures show a huge gulf between the performance of the young players so far this year.

In 4 games this year the youngest player to receive coaches votes for Richmond is 24 year old Noah Balta. Good player but calling a 24 year old young is really stretching it. No young Richmond player is putting in match changing performances being recognised by the coaches.

In comparison 4 Geelong players aged 21 or younger have received coaches votes this year in just 3 games. Dempsey, Bruhn, O Henry and Holmes twice. These guys look like elite young players having major impacts on games. I, and the coaches, don't see a single equivalent at Richmond.

Yes, our development of young players under the last few years of the Hardwick reign was awful and has set the club back. To be fair a lot of our drafted young players were pretty light so needed a few seasons, that's more the recruiters than the coaches. Besides Balta, the only regular best 22 getting games in the last few years was Bolton, and he's a cut above most so impossible not to play. Young only got a gig when Tarrant was injured, who we should never have recruited because Miller was waiting in the wings. Not backing young players and recruiting an injury prone 32 year old was ridiculous.

Jack Ross started like a house on fire, then spent the next few years playing all over the shop, dropped, in and out like a yo-yo. Has played good football for a while now, but he's 23 and still not absolutely cemented. Sydney Stack had as much talent as I have seen in years but spent an entire VFL season playing half forward. Not once did they give him even a quarter at half back where he made his name.

We didn't have any top 10 picks other than Gibcus, who is a tad unlucky. Our next line of Dow, Brown, Sonsie, Banks and Clarke all needed plenty of preseasons in the gym to get them anywhere near big enough. Behind the 8 all when you are skinny. But they are at least developing, how well we will see. There are a few others that will get their chance soon as well, like every club.

But, Jack Graham who has barely played a good game in years marches straight back in after a 6 week quad injury. No doubt Grimes will come in next week and push out another young player who is doing well. Seems like coming back through the VFL is below them.

But you certainly are above us when it comes to developing youth, don't know there are many better clubs in the league at it.

 

[Grrr]

Disagree with that. Bucks and Fly both heavily into defensive structures, but Macrae has added in better attacking structures. It may look like blokes just creatively doing their own thing - but they drill the bejesus out of those running patterns in order to get people running through the right patterns to make it work. I suspect the same with the difference between early Hardwick and the successful version - it's his assistants doeing it for us.

Malthouse used to have most of the team playing a rigid system with a few berserkers.

By the end of Bucks rule the players had no clue. Sideways, backwards, to the boundary line. Take no chances at all. Fly has you backing yourself in, big difference. Structures are part of every game of football at every club, but nothing works better than being given the freedom to show your flare and be a bit daring that has been part of football forever. Look at De Goey once the shackles have been let loose. Hardwick was much the same, the players have all said how nice it is to have the shackles off.

 

[Andyy]

I see better youth quality at Richmond, but not enough for my liking, and suspect it's worse for Geelong.

 

[sr36]

By the end of Bucks rule the players had no clue. Sideways, backwards, to the boundary line. Take no chances at all. Fly has you backing yourself in, big difference. Structures are part of every game of football at every club, but nothing works better than being given the freedom to show your flare and be a bit daring that has been part of football forever. Look at De Goey once the shackles have been let loose. Hardwick was much the same, the players have all said how nice it is to have the shackles off.

I think we're talking about different things. I mean positioning and running patterns. Someone like Bobby Hill runs the same patterns every game - that's what I mean by structure. Within that Fly has given them licence to take the game on and make their own decisions in contests and with the ball. Bucks tried to micromanage their decisions - which resulted in no aytacking flair.

 

[Daka]

I'm pretty bullish & confident Kane Mcauliffe will be good at AFL level, he has that grit look about him that maybe Dow & Sonsie lack.
I know VFL form doesn't always translate to AFL but to me he seems to have some good attributes watching him play.

At the draft combine 2023 he was Top 5 in the 20m sprint, standing vertical jump, running vertical jump.

Seems to have real power not sure what he runs a 2k time trial at he wasn't on the list of top draftees at the draft combine so it's fair to say he doesn't look to have an elite tank maybe what he is probably working on right now.

 

[Grrr]

I think we're talking about different things. I mean positioning and running patterns. Someone like Bobby Hill runs the same patterns every game - that's what I mean by structure. Within that Fly has given them licence to take the game on and make their own decisions in contests and with the ball. Bucks tried to micromanage their decisions - which resulted in no aytacking flair.

Exactly, Bucks micromanage, as did Hardwick in the end. Of course there are patterns and positioning, but sometimes the coaches go to far with it, which often takes the flair out of a player. Cumberland is a case in point, De Goey another (although with far greater talent).

 

[Footy Smarts]

Dow looks like he belongs

Really?

He's averaging 13 touches as a full time inside mid while having no defensive side to his game. This is his 5th season having played 20-odd AFL games and 50-odd VFL games so it's not like he's a kid just starting out.

Do you mean he looks like he belongs in the VFL?

 

[Grrr]

Really?

He's averaging 13 touches as a full time inside mid while having no defensive side to his game. This is his 5th season having played 20-odd AFL games and 50-odd VFL games so it's not like he's a kid just starting out.

Do you mean he looks like he belongs in the VFL?

30 games of VFL, just saying.

Last 3 games of '23 he averaged over 21 disposals per game including 27 against Port.

Started off the year with a shocker, but since then is building. Has great agility and great handball, these types bring others into the game so don't need it as often as those that give it like a hot potato to the teammate standing next to them. Which happens a lot.

Sure he has not made it yet, but the coach stuck with him, hope it pays off. Last season he would have been in the 2's after his first game. Has some very good tools to work with, just needs to get it a bit more often. He's light for an inside mid, so these types always take longer.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I'm pretty bullish & confident Kane Mcauliffe will be good at AFL level, he has that grit look about him that maybe Dow & Sonsie lack.
I know VFL form doesn't always translate to AFL but to me he seems to have some good attributes watching him play.

At the draft combine 2023 he was Top 5 in the 20m sprint, standing vertical jump, running vertical jump.

Seems to have real power not sure what he runs a 2k time trial at he wasn't on the list of top draftees at the draft combine so it's fair to say he doesn't look to have an elite tank maybe what he is probably working on right now.

I wanted McAuliffe at the draft. Reckon he'll go well

 

[Footy Smarts]

I see better youth quality at Richmond, but not enough for my liking, and suspect it's worse for Geelong.

Not sure what exactly you mean by youth but I'd love to know which under 24 at Richmond you would compare to Max Holmes.

 

[Daka]

Not sure what exactly you mean by youth but I'd love to know which under 24 at Richmond you would compare to Max Holmes.

Noah Balta is 24 but I would say he is on the same level as Holmes talent wise. so not under 24 but talented it's hard to say we will be finding out a lot this year about Richmond's youth too early to tell.

 

[Grrr]

I'm pretty bullish & confident Kane Mcauliffe will be good at AFL level, he has that grit look about him that maybe Dow & Sonsie lack.
I know VFL form doesn't always translate to AFL but to me he seems to have some good attributes watching him play.

At the draft combine 2023 he was Top 5 in the 20m sprint, standing vertical jump, running vertical jump.

Seems to have real power not sure what he runs a 2k time trial at he wasn't on the list of top draftees at the draft combine so it's fair to say he doesn't look to have an elite tank maybe what he is probably working on right now.

And he's already 85kg's with a lovely left foot on him. Definitely building the tank, I don't think they want to over do it with the young kids. He played half games in ever practice match only.