List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 2

[tugga]

Southeast Queensland could go into lockdown tomorrow.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Based on what? Kicking 4, 2 and 2 in his 2nd-4th games of footy aint enough for you?

Hes played 5 games of AFL and hes averaging 11.5 touches, 4.8 marks and 2 goals a game.
Reiwoldt is averaging 10.8 touches, 5.1 marks and 2.4 goals a game this year for comparison.

To say your expectations are too high is a massive understatement.

By ave he is ranked in the top 20 in the comp for both Goals and Contested marks
Very good numbers for a guy who has only played 5 games

 

[Charlie Pannam]

Greene would be an amazing replacement for Cotch who should retire end of this year.

Cerra would also be an amazing get for us as complete midfielder with elite kicking.

The problem is, we cant afford to give up 2 first rounders for any one player, as we simply have too many holes in our list.

Cotch should retire on his terms

Jack sticks around to mentor but no certainty to be best 22
Astbury for insurance only or retire
Houli retire

Trade bait

George
Rioli
Arts
Macca
Caddy
Chol

Do a mini rebuild, hit the draft, trade and FA periods and hope we nail it for a quick bounce.

I think Green is contracted until 23, so I’d imagine we’d inherit his current contract if we traded for him. Being a second year player and the GWS cap pretty tight I wouldn’t imagine he’d be on big $$

So from a cap perspective it wouldn’t be a major problem

 

[Morro]

I think Green is contracted until 23, so I’d imagine we’d inherit his current contract if we traded for him. Being a second year player and the GWS cap pretty tight I wouldn’t imagine he’d be on big $$

So from a cap perspective it wouldn’t be a major problem

Yeah he's the one we can afford and still have an immediate impact.

 

[fargothegreat]

If we do decide to let CJ go due to his incompatibility with Lynch in our forward line, rather than going to the draft for a key forward where there's not much to choose from this year I'd hope we got in the ear of Jarrod Brander. He's got similar attributes to Balta and would make a great Riewoldt replacement at CHF for us imo.

 

[NZ_Tiger]

Based on what? Kicking 4, 2 and 2 in his 2nd-4th games of footy aint enough for you?

Hes played 5 games of AFL and hes averaging 11.5 touches, 4.8 marks and 2 goals a game.
Reiwoldt is averaging 10.8 touches, 5.1 marks and 2.4 goals a game this year for comparison.

To say your expectations are too high is a massive understatement.

We will see. Other having a height advantage over his opponents, I haven’t seen a hell of a lot else. Could be the next Tom Lynch or could be the next Vickery.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Hoos]

If we do decide to let CJ go due to his incompatibility with Lynch in our forward line

In fairness, they haven't played together yet. I'll reserve judgement until they've played a few games together.

 

[banzai]

If we do decide to let CJ go due to his incompatibility with Lynch in our forward line, rather than going to the draft for a key forward where there's not much to choose from this year I'd hope we got in the ear of Jarrod Brander. He's got similar attributes to Balta and would make a great Riewoldt replacement at CHF for us imo.

Not sure we are letting him go, if he's leaving, he probably made that call before the season started. Ideally we would get a future pick so we can be loaded 2 drafts in a row.

 

[fargothegreat]

In fairness, they haven't played together yet. I'll reserve judgement until they've played a few games together.

Yeah definitely. I was just saying that if do go down that path, then Brander would be a good option. Probably get him for the Saints' second too.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Not sure we are letting him go, if he's leaving, he probably made that call before the season started. Ideally we would get a future pick so we can be loaded 2 drafts in a row.

Future 1st?
We gamble they'll continue to be shit.
The gamble to be us.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Greene or Green?

As Kermit the Frog once said, it's not easy spelling Green.

 

[_RT_]

It’s not a simple question because you’ve cropped age and games played. One could be a 10 game player and a top three draft pick while the other could be a 150 game player in the peak of their career. This is why it’s such a pointless and stupid exercise.

The only reason you label it stupid and pointless was to avoid making a call so you didn't look foolish given it was you who claimed that if we compared Rowell to Ross everyone would pick Ross as his stats would be so much better. As the comparison shows, they're actually quite close and in fact Rowells stats were marginally better given they also include the Cats game where he was injured after less than 5 minutes.

 

[_RT_]

Happy to do that comparison and this is Green 2nd year and their stats are reasonably the same against Cerra 4th year
Compare Cerra 2nd year to Green 2nd year its clear where Green is the better player with more traits we look for like winning contested inside ball

Adam Cerra and Tom Green AFL Stats Comparison

Adam Cerra and Tom Green AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Should be noted that Cerra has spent a lot of time playing as a winger while at Fremantle, whereas Green plays inside mid pretty much every game.

 

[THE_GUN]

Players aren't necessarily closer to the end product 4 years in if they haven't played their end role for the whole 4 years. IMO I'd suggest Green is closer to the end product than Cerra given Cerra was a skinny kid when drafted compared to Green who was physically more developed hence being able to slide into an inside mid role from the start whereas Cerra is currently more of a hybrid midfielder and still maturing.

Its not the physical size or the game style im referring to but more the games played and time at the club learning game plans and team mates game
usually 50-70 games is when you get a clear indication of the player they project to become.
Tom green has played 18 games compared to 70 for Cerra

 

[_RT_]

Its not the physical size or the game style im referring to but more the games played and time at the club learning game plans and team mates game
usually 50-70 games is when you get a clear indication of the player they project to become.
Tom green has played 18 games compared to 70 for Cerra

Don't forget that Cerra has had to learn Lyons game plan and then learn Longmuirs game plan in his 4 years, whereas Green was GWS academy kid so was probably learning their game plan before he was even drafted.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I think Green is contracted until 23, so I’d imagine we’d inherit his current contract if we traded for him. Being a second year player and the GWS cap pretty tight I wouldn’t imagine he’d be on big $$

So from a cap perspective it wouldn’t be a major problem

I am not sure about this at all. They have a history of signing the high end picks quickly on 2 year contract extensions at $400-450k pa. This is why for instance they had to salary dump Aiden Bonar to North Melbourne for North’s future 3rd rounder. Jye Caldwell was traded to the Bombers on a similar sort of basis I think. My best guess is if we got Green we’d be inheriting a $400-450k contract.

Still I think this is the sort of thing Richmond should be looking to do, get young talented players in any way we can. Develop the team while we absorb the fat end of the Martin and Lynch contracts over the next 3 seasons or so then with 3 more years into Bolton, Balta, Coleman-Jones/Ryan, Collier-Dawkins, Ralphsmith, Nyuon, Mansell, Colina, Cumberland, Martyn, Stack, Rioli Jnr, Dow and our 2021 draft and trade haul, we should have a good cap position to address any needs at that time. Thus, 2025 will be 2017 all over again.

 

[Oshka]

The only reason you label it stupid and pointless was to avoid making a call so you didn't look foolish given it was you who claimed that if we compared Rowell to Ross everyone would pick Ross as his stats would be so much better. As the comparison shows, they're actually quite close and in fact Rowells stats were marginally better given they also include the Cats game where he was injured after less than 5 minutes.

Omfg! I don’t even know where to begin with this. Surely you can’t be this dense.

I would avoid choosing any player in your little stats game because it’s missing critical information (games played & age) for me to make an informed decision. Even if that vital info was provided, I would still be hesitant about choosing anyone on the back of pure numbers. Stats only tell half the story. I’d back an eye test first and foremost. You could find countless examples of one player looking superior to another player on paper despite having an inferior season.

As for the Rowell/Ross stats, here are their averages for 2021:



I don’t know where you’ve plucked your stats from or why you’ve included the Geelong game from last year where Rowell got injured (another reason why stats should not be relied upon), but as you can see, Ross looks vastly superior on paper. Would I take Ross over Rowell? No, I wouldn’t.

Just accept you attempted to make Cerra look superior to Green by deliberately cropping games played and age, you thought you were clever, you got found out and you were made to look stupid. Now you’re trying to persist with this bullsh*t, when you’re actually proving my point without even realising it.

 

[_RT_]

Omfg! I don’t even know where to begin with this. Surely you can’t be this dense.

I would avoid choosing any player in your little stats game because it’s missing critical information (games played & age) for me to make an informed decision. Even if that vital info was provided, I would still be hesitant about choosing anyone on the back of pure numbers. Stats only tell half the story. I’d back an eye test first and foremost. You could find countless examples of one player looking superior to another player on paper despite having an inferior season.

As for the Rowell/Ross stats, here are their averages for 2021:

View attachment 1166412View attachment 1166414

I don’t know where you’ve plucked your stats from or why you’ve included the Geelong game from last year where Rowell got injured (another reason why stats should not be relied upon), but as you can see, Ross looks vastly superior on paper. Would I take Ross over Rowell? No, I wouldn’t.

Just accept you attempted to make Cerra look superior to Green by deliberately cropping games played and age, you thought you were clever, you got found out and you were made to look stupid. Now you’re trying to persist with this bullsh*t, when you’re actually proving my point without even realising it.

Once again for the people with poor comprehension I put up the stats of 2 players people on this thread are interested in the club chasing and asked people to who they'd choose if they could only take 1 for 2021. Yes I cropped out their names but I left in the fact it was based on 2021 games played, which made it quite easy for anyone to work out who was who, I mean you were able to work it out quick enough. You're the one who made, and are have continued making, the incorrect assumption that I was trying to make one look better than the other.

 

[Hoos]

As Kermit the Frog once said, it's not easy spelling Green.

Oh dear.

 

[Oshka]

Once again for the people with poor comprehension I put up the stats of 2 players people on this thread are interested in the club chasing and asked people to who they'd choose if they could only take 1 for 2021. Yes I cropped out their names but I left in the fact it was based on 2021 games played, which made it quite easy for anyone to work out who was who, I mean you were able to work it out quick enough. You're the one who made, and are have continued making, the incorrect assumption that I was trying to make one look better than the other.

Firstly, your original post said who would you take at the end of 2021. Now you’re saying who would you take for 2021. Pick one.

Secondly, I still don’t understand the purpose of the exercise. Do you not yet understand that stats require context and that leaving out vital info such as age and games played can be incredibly deceptive (see: Rowell/Ross comparison)?

Lastly, if you knew it was going to be easy to work out who you were referring to, why crop out the names of the players and their respective age and games played? Is it because your ridiculous comparison would’ve been rightfully mocked?

We both know you were trying to trap/surprise someone who favours Green over Cerra. It failed.

 

[THE_GUN]

I just look at the type of player we need and the type that we are currently crying out for is
Jacob Hopper , Patrick Cripps , Josh Kennedy (swans) , Jack Steele , Josh Dunkley types

We desperately need an inside mid beast that can extract the ball 30 times a game to pump out to our outside players
We are always getting killed in clearances .

 

[Muddiemoose]

I just look at the type of player we need and the type that we are currently crying out for is
Jacob Hopper , Patrick Cripps , Josh Kennedy (swans) , Jack Steele , Josh Dunkley types

We desperately need an inside mid beast that can extract the ball 30 times a game to pump out to our outside players
We are always getting killed in clearances .

I guess the only problem with those guys (don’t disagree that we don’t need one like them) but to get them into the club you are looking at two first round picks (low ones) and at least 850k+ a season

The closest we have is RCD who is starting to show some promise at VFL level with those disposal numbers growing very well so the club may be happy to back in his development instead of trying to trade that type of player in

 

[THE_GUN]

I guess the only problem with those guys (don’t disagree that we don’t need one like them) but to get them into the club you are looking at two first round picks (low ones) and at least 850k+ a season

The closest we have is RCD who is starting to show some promise at VFL level with those disposal numbers growing very well so the club may be happy to back in his development instead of trying to trade that type of player in

Thats the thing though
With whats being mentioned about Cerra he is looking at similar $$$ and will require similar picks
this is where i think the picks & dollars are needed elsewhere and Cerra is not really what we need now

I recorded the Freo / Pies game deliberately to take a good look at Cerra game and re watched it today rewinding each possession and game involvement
and in all honest was very disappointed with what i seen.

Specially the last quarter where the game was in the balance 2 kicks 1 free against and looked timid , He is still a kid and im sure he will improve but currently i wouldnt be giving up anything more than pick #12-#15 and $450k - $500k

He moves well and kicks well but just doesnt go in as hard as he should and doesnt not have elite pace or goal kicking
Currently i see a poor mans Josh Kelly but Josh Kelly was much better at the same age

Joshua Kelly and Adam Cerra AFL Stats Comparison

Joshua Kelly and Adam Cerra AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

 

[Bojangles17]

If we do decide to let CJ go due to his incompatibility with Lynch in our forward line, rather than going to the draft for a key forward where there's not much to choose from this year I'd hope we got in the ear of Jarrod Brander. He's got similar attributes to Balta and would make a great Riewoldt replacement at CHF for us imo.

He’s looked pretty average to date nowhere near kpp quality , he’s seriously about Garth’s level

 

[RJK Tiger]

Imagine if he is only ever a B+ grader. $700+ a year for probably four years tied up in the cap. For players $650+ they really have to be bona fide A grader mids or gun key position players. Cerra just doesn't strike me as a Richmond type. No mongrel.

They all can't be mongrels & don't get fooled into thinking the ethos of this team will remain the same, it will evolve. The way this game keeps getting re-written, there will be no place for a team of mongrels in 5 years. Anyway, with Graham, RCD, Dow, Martyn - we should have enough "Mongrel" to go around.

What we need is a bloke who has great skills and can deliver an inside 50 onto someones chest as opposed to their head. If the money is going to be $650-750k then its perhaps not worth following up - that does seem too high. In saying that i do feel like i am a bit detached to what certain players get paid these days. I am not sure why the AFL is not like the NBA, where all salaries are public knowledge & fans, journalist have access to their contracts, cap space etc