List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 6

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Our Key Fwd situation concerns me as i fear they will go for Himmelberg to save jobs


Key Fwds for Flags last decade

2022 - Hawkins & Cameron
2021 - Fritsch, Ben Brown, Tom McDonald, Luke Jackson, Max Gawn
2020 - Riewoldt, Lynch & Dusty
2019 - Riewoldt, Lynch & Dusty
2018 - Darling & Kennedy
2017 - Jack & the Chaos Kings
2016 - Boyd, Stringer
2013-15 - Gunston, Roughead, Breust, Cyril (Franklin in 13)





You can have many variants and be successful, but what you almost always need a certain quality of name in your Big 2. There are a few interesting moments for sure looking at that list - the Dogs & Tigers in 2017 both won flags with forwardlines that, on paper, are clearly sub-par to the rest of that decade. It would be interesting to pinpoint what exactly changed in footy after the Hawks dynasty that led to GF's being won with very inexperienced forwardlines that functioned in a very untraditional format. Richmond effectively "righted" that ship when they got Lynch & since then marking forwards have been king again. By 2021 the amount of elite marking forward options Melbourne had to win a flag was about as "yang" to Richmonds 2017 "ying".

Himmelberg just doesn;t look like a name i'd expect to be in that list above.
 
Our Key Fwd situation concerns me as i fear they will go for Himmelberg to save jobs


Key Fwds for Flags last decade

2022 - Hawkins & Cameron
2021 - Fritsch, Ben Brown, Tom McDonald, Luke Jackson, Max Gawn
2020 - Riewoldt, Lynch & Dusty
2019 - Riewoldt, Lynch & Dusty
2018 - Darling & Kennedy
2017 - Jack & the Chaos Kings
2016 - Boyd, Stringer
2013-15 - Gunston, Roughead, Breust, Cyril (Franklin in 13)





You can have many variants and be successful, but what you almost always need a certain quality of name in your Big 2. There are a few interesting moments for sure looking at that list - the Dogs & Tigers in 2017 both won flags with forwardlines that, on paper, are clearly sub-par to the rest of that decade. It would be interesting to pinpoint what exactly changed in footy after the Hawks dynasty that led to GF's being won with very inexperienced forwardlines that functioned in a very untraditional format. Richmond effectively "righted" that ship when they got Lynch & since then marking forwards have been king again. By 2021 the amount of elite marking forward options Melbourne had to win a flag was about as "yang" to Richmonds 2017 "ying".

Himmelberg just doesn;t look like a name i'd expect to be in that list above.
It’s really hard to say imo
That Melbourne forward group is the weakest in terms of key forward ability that is made up of a medium forward being the biggest threat, a couple of resting rucks plus Brown and McDonald who wouldn’t even get a game at most clubs

Even if we look at this year and assume Collingwood (who have no key position players of note bar cox) or Port win the flag
The only real key position player of note in terms of resume is Dixon and that isn’t even that amazing

Finlayson has been essential to the power’s successes this season and he is essentially a like for like comparison to Himmelberg apart the the fact Himmelberg is a lot more versatile with his ability to play back as well and that alone provides us with options to potentially shift Gibcus forward

I feel posters are getting caught in the trap of just looking at the names instead of what they actually offer structure wise and ultimately that is more important than the individual accolades the player might of achieved
 
Logan Morris was moved fwd yesterday for VM.Kicked 4.Looked alright up fwd as a defender.lol
Everyone needs to settle down regarding Morris 4 goal performance. WA were ordinary and lost by 14 goals, VM midfield and defence dominated and continually pumped the ball inside 50, they must have had 75 inside 50’s. I would expect the forwards to dominate with amount of delivery. In saying all that he still played a good game along with others.
 

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Everyone needs to settle down regarding Morris 4 goal performance. WA were ordinary and lost by 14 goals, VM midfield and defence dominated and continually pumped the ball inside 50, they must have had 75 inside 50’s. I would expect the forwards to dominate with amount of delivery. In saying all that he still played a good game along with others.
Don't think i went overboard.lol
 
It’s really hard to say imo
That Melbourne forward group is the weakest in terms of key forward ability that is made up of a medium forward being the biggest threat, a couple of resting rucks plus Brown and McDonald who wouldn’t even get a game at most clubs

Even if we look at this year and assume Collingwood (who have no key position players of note bar cox) or Port win the flag
The only real key position player of note in terms of resume is Dixon and that isn’t even that amazing

Finlayson has been essential to the power’s successes this season and he is essentially a like for like comparison to Himmelberg apart the the fact Himmelberg is a lot more versatile with his ability to play back as well and that alone provides us with options to potentially shift Gibcus forward

I feel posters are getting caught in the trap of just looking at the names instead of what they actually offer structure wise and ultimately that is more important than the individual accolades the player might of achieved


I don't think that at all about Melbourne - that forward-line in the context to that season was exceptional. They had 5 rotating elite marking targets all firing on all cylinders & Kosi roaming around them.

Our 2017 forwardline is a freak of nature. Jack & Dusty are Hall of famers, but the supporting cast even still is not regarded. Butler was traded for spare parts. Townsend spent another 4-5 years being cut, rookied etc, Graham has been somewhat underwhelming. Castagna was basically bullied out of the league. Dan was a young pup and he has had to be moved to the backline to be saved Georgies fate.

The 2016 Dogs forwardline is the same. look, but even weirder. They had Boyd playing his 1 great season, Stringer - then a bunch of guys that are not overly memorable 3/4 of a decade on - Tory Dickson, Zayne Cordy, Jack Macrae, Clay Smith, Dalhaus . Both Richmond and the Dogs almost won using an AFL version of "Small Ball" to use the NBA term. When a team will not play a traditional centre, spread the floor and run and gun them off the floor. I think the Demons forwardline is without much question superior to both 16-17 - most of those players have continued success at least at some point of their career, pre or post the flag

Re Himmellberg and structure - I just don't see him impacting winning. Port are able to use Finlayson effectively as they have a plethora of young elite talent sparkling around the entire ground. Our list is clearly aging and lacking in any elite young talent outside Bolton. If we can obviously get an elite young marking forward that will get us 2 birds with one stone. we are 12th -whatss Himmelberg get you up to - 8th?, maybe 5th if things go your way ? I see no point in doing that with more future assets, with an aging list. its a purgatory move for me
 
Himmelberg just doesn;t look like a name i'd expect to be in that list above.
GIF by NETFLIX

No you are right, let's sign Ben Brown and Tom McDonald instead lol

Wasn't Himmelberg Cameron's robin that got them to the 2019 GF?

2017 showed that you needed one key forward with a supporting cast. HH is elite for goal kicking and goal assists, sounds like the perfect Robin to our Batman, but whatever
 
We do not need a ‘gun’ KPF. We just need a fierce competitor capable of kicking 35+.

Pies are flying and their big forwards are Mihocek, Cox and Johnson. Dees won a flag with big forwards of BB and McDonald. Port are flying with a cooked Dixon and Marshall was injured for ages. Dons turned their forward line around by putting Langford down there as he competes.

Blues have done sweet FA with 2 x Coleman medallists. GC are poo with Ben King. Saints haven’t fired a shot with Max King. That’s because the King boys are not fierce competitors. Lions have won nothing with Daniher / McStay - not fierce competitors. Crows never won a thing with Walker, Jenkins and now Walker, Fogarty and Thilthorpe.

Of course if you’ve got a gun, great. But let’s not panic about needing a ‘marquee’ KPF.

Focus on someone who is 193cm+ and smashes packs and attacks the ball like their life depends on it as priority #1 (an underrated asset for both Jack and Lynch). Then worry about the rest.

I don’t know if Georgiades or Riccardi have that attribute ..?? I’m not sure HH does from what I’ve seen. He’s a ‘nice’ player, but not a kamikaze forward like Mihocek.

If they don’t have ultra competitive mongrel and crazy courage to crash packs, bypass them.


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This is spot on.

Can't underrate the importance of someone who crashes packs and can bring the ball to ground 2 or 3 on 1. Just need a real team player who attacks the ball, is a fierce competitor and is prepared to play a role for the team. Decent at ground level wouldn't go astray either. Don't really care if he doesn't slot many goals. Our biggest downfall this year has IMO been our tendency to kick long down the line and then get picked off too easily by the intercept kings. Especially if we maintain our forward handball type game style - it really relies on getting the ball to ground and then outnumbering sides at ground level and sprinting forward in waves.

Himmelberg at 800 or 900K aint doing that. He's a talent for sure, but he isn't what we need.
 
I don't think that at all about Melbourne - that forward-line in the context to that season was exceptional. They had 5 rotating elite marking targets all firing on all cylinders & Kosi roaming around them.

Our 2017 forwardline is a freak of nature. Jack & Dusty are Hall of famers, but the supporting cast even still is not regarded. Butler was traded for spare parts. Townsend spent another 4-5 years being cut, rookied etc, Graham has been somewhat underwhelming. Castagna was basically bullied out of the league. Dan was a young pup and he has had to be moved to the backline to be saved Georgies fate.

The 2016 Dogs forwardline is the same. look, but even weirder. They had Boyd playing his 1 great season, Stringer - then a bunch of guys that are not overly memorable 3/4 of a decade on - Tory Dickson, Zayne Cordy, Jack Macrae, Clay Smith, Dalhaus . Both Richmond and the Dogs almost won using an AFL version of "Small Ball" to use the NBA term. When a team will not play a traditional centre, spread the floor and run and gun them off the floor. I think the Demons forwardline is without much question superior to both 16-17 - most of those players have continued success at least at some point of their career, pre or post the flag
If anything this just further supports why Himmelberg could be an astute pick up because despite his flaws his biggest asset is his marking ability

You said it yourself in relation to Melbourne’s forward line “They had 5 rotating elite marking targets” and it’s plain to see that our biggest issue this season isn’t our backline or even midfield

We are getting stupid amounts of inside 50’s and defending winning scores
What we aren’t doing it capitalising on inside 50’s because we don’t have enough marking targets in our forward line and mainly tall ones especially with Lynch injured

Next season we could say Lynch, Dusty and Bolton would be our forward line elite marking targets and probably means we do lack in that area next rung are Miller and Ryan who are maybe c grade marking targets (definitely not elite but both have scope for improvement )

So our options are either to get one of our marking backs to come forward (Gibcus best option, Balta and Vloss) but that also weakens our backline considerably

Or we can hope one of our younger listed forwards like Ryan become elite standard extremely quickly (not going to happen in the short term)

Or bring in a player that fits the bill and that’s where Himmelberg enters consideration and shows himself as a very viable option not only because he can play forward but also could potentially help facilitate the move of one of our marking backs forward without weakening our back 6’s marking ability if that’s the way our coaches prefer to set up

Even to say Bolton is our only elite young talent is incorrect
Balta is only 23 (1 year young than Bolton) & the thing about young talent is that we don’t actually know what we have until we give them a few years in the system

2 years ago Bailey Smith was the hottest prospect in the comp and now he’s a glorified role player we have a number of players that are still in that cooking stage that could easily transition into that elite young talent category or just be okay but we can’t make that call either way (referring to players like Gibcus, Banks, Clarke, Brown, Ryan and Ross)
Only time will tell but we won’t really know realistically for another 2 - 5 seasons
 
Have you heard it from me ?

They will have the best list in 2 years time
Several years there was hysterics over gws list and how many flags they’d win , I said at the time , cool ya jets , two words would bring them undone
Free Agency
Same applies to GC
 
Several years there was hysterics over gws list and how many flags they’d win , I said at the time , cool ya jets , two words would bring them undone
Free Agency
Same applies to GC
Yup they are a revolving door or elite talent and picks stuck in a vicious cycle

It sounds odd but they have far to much talent that comes in every year

Guys who are far two good to be stuck in the vfl comp so they leave for opportunities… and the ones who break into the side as must keeps are still to young to make a difference but also need to be paid decent money

So that older tier (the ones who will ultimately dictate if they win a flag or not) go elsewhere for better financial opportunities (Taranto and Hopper)

As counter intuitive as it seems they almost need to forgo the elite ends of the drafts for a few years and just focus on one core group and develop some role players around them and ignore what they could get in the door
 
have to disagree RJK Tiger on Castagna being bullied outta the game,the blame almost lies squarely on Dimmas shoulders by not doing the professional thing and dropping a footballer who clearly needed and deserved time in the VFL,just one of a few reasons hes not coaching at the moment,total loss of judgement,its harsh but he contributed in a huge way to both Castagnas success but also his alarming rapid decline

u know whats strange ? i believe if George was to make a comeback with Dimma gone i believe hed be able to recapture
that chaos magic that he always had and prove a handfull with a new voice
 
We do not need a ‘gun’ KPF. We just need a fierce competitor capable of kicking 35+.

Pies are flying and their big forwards are Mihocek, Cox and Johnson. Dees won a flag with big forwards of BB and McDonald. Port are flying with a cooked Dixon and Marshall was injured for ages. Dons turned their forward line around by putting Langford down there as he competes.

Blues have done sweet FA with 2 x Coleman medallists. GC are poo with Ben King. Saints haven’t fired a shot with Max King. That’s because the King boys are not fierce competitors. Lions have won nothing with Daniher / McStay - not fierce competitors. Crows never won a thing with Walker, Jenkins and now Walker, Fogarty and Thilthorpe.

Of course if you’ve got a gun, great. But let’s not panic about needing a ‘marquee’ KPF.

Focus on someone who is 193cm+ and smashes packs and attacks the ball like their life depends on it as priority #1 (an underrated asset for both Jack and Lynch). Then worry about the rest.

I don’t know if Georgiades or Riccardi have that attribute ..?? I’m not sure HH does from what I’ve seen. He’s a ‘nice’ player, but not a kamikaze forward like Mihocek.

If they don’t have ultra competitive mongrel and crazy courage to crash packs, bypass them.


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Maybe we get Nank to drop 10kg and play forward Neil Balme could teach him the finer points of being a forward
 

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Maybe we get Nank to drop 10kg and play forward Neil Balme could teach him the finer points of being a forward
Not a terrible idea and I like the out of the box thinking but Nank is also not the greatest contested mark

If Nank did drop 10kgs I would just throw him in as a big bodied mid

It’s how he essentially plays now but would mean he wouldn’t need to take the ruck contests
 
Yes agree, it’s just a general summary as there are comments around this forum that he’s a top 10 pick
First time I think his name was mentioned here.Not sure why you come onto our board and be all high n mighty about it.
 
I still don't mind if we chase HH, but I don't reckon he will be coming to us anyway. I can't see Samson as a forward target, perhaps as a chop out at times. He is perfect as our ruck though. Bauer obviously the club think highly of him to offer him an extension and thinks he can make it. I see him more as that 3rd forward option, with Lynch and HH. Would be a pretty good fit IMO.
 
It’s really hard to say imo
That Melbourne forward group is the weakest in terms of key forward ability that is made up of a medium forward being the biggest threat, a couple of resting rucks plus Brown and McDonald who wouldn’t even get a game at most clubs

Even if we look at this year and assume Collingwood (who have no key position players of note bar cox) or Port win the flag
The only real key position player of note in terms of resume is Dixon and that isn’t even that amazing

Finlayson has been essential to the power’s successes this season and he is essentially a like for like comparison to Himmelberg apart the the fact Himmelberg is a lot more versatile with his ability to play back as well and that alone provides us with options to potentially shift Gibcus forward

I feel posters are getting caught in the trap of just looking at the names instead of what they actually offer structure wise and ultimately that is more important than the individual accolades the player might of achieved
Pies brought in McStay who had identical stats to HH. (600k x 5?) until HH started playing in defence. I saw in a TV show that Finlayson went for 300k. Sick wife or kid I think.
Finlayson been playing a lot of ruck due to injury and going well.

HH playing KPD while Riccardi & Hogan play KPF with cameos from Cadman. KPD back up ruck has only been since the change of coach. HH doesn't miss much footy, 5 years not ideal.

I don't know if Lynch & Dusty contracts affect which FA KPF we can go for.

Young playing as well as he has, really frees Gibcus to move forward. Miller could be back up KPD & KPF.
 
Pies brought in McStay who had identical stats to HH. (600k x 5?) until HH started playing in defence. I saw in a TV show that Finlayson went for 300k. Sick wife or kid I think.
Finlayson been playing a lot of ruck due to injury and going well.

HH playing KPD while Riccardi & Hogan play KPF with cameos from Cadman. KPD back up ruck has only been since the change of coach. HH doesn't miss much footy, 5 years not ideal.

I don't know if Lynch & Dusty contracts affect which FA KPF we can go for.

Young playing as well as he has, really frees Gibcus to move forward. Miller could be back up KPD & KPF.
Agree with everything you are saying

I think it essentially comes down to HH being the best option available to plug the hole we have right now from an overall list and structure perspective

Personally I really don’t know if he is the right play to make I’m more just looking at the reasons why a play for HH would make sense and how we could benefit

If I was sitting in the chair making the decisions I probably wouldn’t make the play for him I would be more inclined to double down on what we already have and continue to back in the development of Ryan and see how he looks playing as a foil to Lynch next season

But unfortunately the nature of the league makes it extremely difficult to just wait and see without being proactive and trying to improve the list either
HH is available now, won’t be available next year… yes other key position players will become available but that is also a risk in itself hoping whoever is available is as good as HH or even is interested in joining us as a club or won’t cost draft capital to make it happen (something that HH won’t cost us)
 
Several years there was hysterics over gws list and how many flags they’d win , I said at the time , cool ya jets , two words would bring them undone
Free Agency
Same applies to GC
Let’s see how much the AFL have taken note for when Tassie come in. Let’s face it everyone wants to be in Victoria 👍
 
Go back a little further and you will find Gibcus played a lot more forward it was only really his final year he played back

But my point is more about Key position draftees tend to move around a fair bit before settling on any position so saying we haven’t recruited a gun forward is an odd take when you should be looking at key position players overall not where they got drafted playing
Yeah, nah

Miller was drafted as a ruckman, looks best as a ruckman

Ross was drafted as an inside midfielder, looks best as in inside midfielder

Recently both have put in some complete games playing elsewhere but it's taken years and they still look best in their old role.

In regards to Bauer and Gibcus both look comfortable at both ends so it will depend a bit on other personnel.
 
Agree with everything you are saying

I think it essentially comes down to HH being the best option available to plug the hole we have right now from an overall list and structure perspective

Personally I really don’t know if he is the right play to make I’m more just looking at the reasons why a play for HH would make sense and how we could benefit

If I was sitting in the chair making the decisions I probably wouldn’t make the play for him I would be more inclined to double down on what we already have and continue to back in the development of Ryan and see how he looks playing as a foil to Lynch next season

But unfortunately the nature of the league makes it extremely difficult to just wait and see without being proactive and trying to improve the list either
HH is available now, won’t be available next year… yes other key position players will become available but that is also a risk in itself hoping whoever is available is as good as HH or even is interested in joining us as a club or won’t cost draft capital to make it happen (something that HH won’t cost us)
HH would be invaluable if we had him now we’d have won 2-3 more games that would have us cusp of top 4. I wouldnt go near 7y we have our quote but 5y no problem
 
Yeah, nah

Miller was drafted as a ruckman, looks best as a ruckman

Ross was drafted as an inside midfielder, looks best as in inside midfielder

Recently both have put in some complete games playing elsewhere but it's taken years and they still look best in their old role.

In regards to Bauer and Gibcus both look comfortable at both ends so it will depend a bit on other personnel.
Don’t think Miller will make it unfortunately just doesn’t have that mongrel and competitive drive that is needed to succeed as a key position player imo, Ruck, Forward or back

But would loved to be proven wrong

Don’t think Ross has played as an inside mid since his first year at any level so can’t really say it’s his best position until we are shown that he can actually do it (will be interesting to see if he gets a crack next year at a role that would facilitate it) but for now Ross’s best position is the one he is playing now and that’s the wing

Very similar to Steele Sideass imo
 
Don’t think Miller will make it unfortunately just doesn’t have that mongrel and competitive drive that is needed to succeed as a key position player imo, Ruck, Forward or back

But would loved to be proven wrong

Don’t think Ross has played as an inside mid since his first year at any level so can’t really say it’s his best position until we are shown that he can actually do it (will be interesting to see if he gets a crack next year at a role that would facilitate it) but for now Ross’s best position is the one he is playing now and that’s the wing

Very similar to Steele Sideass imo
Last one Ross played entirely inside was R23 last year against Bombers, had about 25d and a goal.

Think that they are both coming along very nicely, can play multiple positions and showing new tricks most weeks now.
 
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