Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[wannabejack]

ISW: Russian military lacks operational capacity to maintain renewed summer offensive in Ukraine - Euromaidan Press

A new analysis suggests that Russia may be unable to mount a large-scale summer offensive in Ukraine due to resource constraints.

euromaidanpress.com

The ISW posits that the Russian military command may view these periodic, pulsating mechanized assaults as either sufficient to accomplish revised, more limited objectives for the summer of 2024 or as the extent of their current capabilities. This assessment contrasts with earlier reports from Western media, citing unspecified Ukrainian sources, which suggested plans for a large-scale Russian offensive to seize remaining territories in multiple oblasts during the summer of 2024.

The think tank also highlights the Kremlin’s tendency to oversell minor tactical gains for informational purposes, suggesting that limited advances in western Donetsk Oblast might be presented as major victories to the Russian public.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Mobbs]

The current "prisoner exchange" is so confounding, though of course it's good to see some of the names released. I can't find information to describe adequately what's going on.

Firstly, I am extremely happy to see some of the names of the prisoners who seem to be being released. I'd been banging on about Sasha Skochilenko for months in this thread, and Kara-Murza too. I was shocked to see especially the former mentioned in media today.

On the other hand, nothing says terrorism like unjustly incarcerating people and then exchanging them for actual criminals. It seems to say hostage exchange more than prisoner exchange.

And with the two I mention above, along with other Russians - Who is Putin exchanging emprisoned Russian citizens for? RUSSIAN citizens. Who do they get given back to? The penal half of Russia is exchanging with the non-penal half of Russia? Are these two different political entities now? Is despotic Russia negotiating with free Russia?

I'm so confused. I need to google more but haven't had the time.

«Освобождение киллера Красикова — месседж тем, кто выступает против Путина за рубежом: у нас есть люди, готовые вас найти» Исследователь спецслужб Андрей Солдатов — о важных аспектах уникального обмена — Meduza

Россия и Запад произвели уникальный по масштабу и составу обмен заключенными. Впервые в обменную сделку были включены не только фигуранты «шпионских» дел, но и сразу несколько политических активистов, осужденных в России за антивоенные высказывания или действия. О том, какой смысл в такую...

meduza.io

Russia and the West have carried out a prisoner exchange that is unique in its scale and composition. For the first time, the exchange deal included not only defendants in "spy" cases, but also several political activists convicted in Russia for anti-war statements or actions. Meduza discussed with special services researcher Andrei Soldatov what meaning the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin personally could have put into such an exchange configuration, why they need the killer Vadim Krasikov, who was exchanged with Germany, and why the deal today looks like a diplomatic defeat for the Russian authorities.

 

[Mobbs]

Another article on the exchange.

Russia Frees Political Prisoners, Journalists in Landmark Exchange With West - The Moscow Times

U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich, ex-U.S.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Mobbs]

According to a support group TG channel originally set up around Sasha's original arrest/prosecution, she was allegedly being transferred to Moscow, went missing, showed in Ankara where release was ratified, then since transferred to Cologne. Dunno how she would ever be reunited with gf or family, but great news regardless.

Seems all exchanges xdocked in Ankara.

Kara-murza is apparently a dual citizen russo-british, so he'll probably leave Russia.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Mobbs]

Dunno if link will work

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

A plane with Russian prisoners landed in Cologne, reports Ivan Zhdanov. The arrivals are met by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

On board are Liliya Chanysheva, Ksenia Fadeeva, Vadim Ostanin, Ilya Yashin, Andrey Pivovarov, Oleg Orlov, Kevin Leake, Sasha Skochilenko, German Moizhes, Patrick Schebel, Dieter Voronin, Rico Krieger.

In turn, a plane carrying released prisoners arrived in Russia. Among others, there were two children of the Dultsev family there.

Photo: Greeters await the plane in Cologne / Ivan Zhdanov’s telegram channel

 

[Zidane98]

Something's burning

 

[Zidane98]

 

[CD Xbow]

Bit off topic,but it shows the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine has widespread fallout. My friend, Peter, the paleo artist was invited to the Russian embassy in Canberra because one of his colleagues was receiving a medal for scientific discovery. They both have worked on the Ediacaran fossils in Namibia and the White Sea with Russian scientists. Peter decided attendance was not wise in the current climate, firstly because he didn't want to give the Russians any good PR and he was bit worried about attracting the attention of our spooks. After his friend came back from Canberra she was approached by a couple, Ben and Melissa, who asked about the work and asked for a copy of the work to be sent to them.
The address was ASIO headquarters in Canberra.

 

[Chief]

After his friend came back from Canberra she was approached by a couple, Ben and Melissa, who asked about the work and asked for a copy of the work to be sent to them.
The address was ASIO headquarters in Canberra.

That tells us nothing. They might have lived in a flat above the ASIO office.

Why are you so suspicious of everyone?!?

 

[CD Xbow]

That tells us nothing. They might have lived in a flat above the ASIO office.

Why are you so suspicious of everyone?!?

I'm not paranoid, it's because everyone is out to get me.

 

[Couch Coach]

Bit off topic,but it shows the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine has widespread fallout. My friend, Peter, the paleo artist was invited to the Russian embassy in Canberra because one of his colleagues was receiving a medal for scientific discovery. They both have worked on the Ediacaran fossils in Namibia and the White Sea with Russian scientists. Peter decided attendance was not wise in the current climate, firstly because he didn't want to give the Russians any good PR and he was bit worried about attracting the attention of our spooks. After his friend came back from Canberra she was approached by a couple, Ben and Melissa, who asked about the work and asked for a copy of the work to be sent to them.
The address was ASIO headquarters in Canberra.

Peter Trusler?

 

[CD Xbow]

Peter Trusler?

Yep. One of Australia's national treasures. I post some of his works in Ancient Australia thread in the science forum.

Biology - Ancient Australia (Extinct Megafauna, Dinosaurs etc)

We have the most unique fauna in Oz, but we also have had some of the most interesting extinct animals ranging from the ancient Ediacara fauna, 'polar' dinosaurs, through to the recently extinct megafauna. I couldn't find a thread that covered "Ancient Australia", or perhaps better Australian...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Zidane98]

That tells us nothing. They might have lived in a flat above the ASIO office.

Why are you so suspicious of everyone?!?

Inb4 ASIO sends you a pm demanding a list of known vatniks on bigfooty ......

 

[Couch Coach]

Inb4 ASIO sends you a pm demanding a list of known vatniks on bigfooty ......

Have heard the North Board is a good place to find them

 

[Mobbs]

This article details all the prisoners involved in the swap. I've seen a few photos since of some people in Germany as well as those who arrived in the USA, and the Russians returned to Russia.

Russia prisoner exchange: Three US citizens to be released

The prisoner exchange between Russia and Western countries is the biggest since the Cold War.

www.bbc.com

 

[Rob R]

Bit off topic,but it shows the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine has widespread fallout. My friend, Peter, the paleo artist was invited to the Russian embassy in Canberra because one of his colleagues was receiving a medal for scientific discovery. They both have worked on the Ediacaran fossils in Namibia and the White Sea with Russian scientists. Peter decided attendance was not wise in the current climate, firstly because he didn't want to give the Russians any good PR and he was bit worried about attracting the attention of our spooks. After his friend came back from Canberra she was approached by a couple, Ben and Melissa, who asked about the work and asked for a copy of the work to be sent to them.
The address was ASIO headquarters in Canberra.

Interesting that ASIO would use a normal business address when most departments use PO boxes and are discrete.

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Frank Grimes]

Interesting that ASIO would use a normal business address when most departments use PO boxes and are discrete.

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I suspect that they were either the dumbest ASIO agents ever, or that were not really trying to hide it.

 

[CD Xbow]

I suspect that they were either the dumbest ASIO agents ever, or that were not really trying to hide it.

No, they didn't try to hide it. I think it's a message, be careful with who you're dealing with. ASIO also got to check out what was researched and I suppose making sure it was not of security interest. Hard to see how the frondomorphs of the Ediacaran could have any national security interest!

 

[Jamolad]

...Hard to see how the frondomorphs of the Ediacaran could have any national security interest!

That's exactly what they want you to think.

 

[Mobbs]

Comment form Sasha's partner Sonya on [Freedom for Sasha Skochilenko TG]

Sasha Skochilenko and other political prisoners did not know about the exchange before arriving in Ankara

Sasha’s girlfriend Sonya told Paper that the artist was sent from St. Petersburg to the Moscow Lefortovo pre-trial detention center. There Skochilenko was not allowed to receive the parcel*, which is why the girl went hungry.

Then she, along with the rest of the political prisoners, was taken to the airport, without explaining what was happening. Skochilenko was scared. When asked where everyone was being taken, the accompanying security officer replied that he would put a bag over her head if she did not shut up.

Political prisoners learned that they were participating in an exchange only in Ankara. Now the artist is in a hospital** in Berlin.

Here's a photo from another channel taken in Germany ( [OVD-Info]):


Notes:
* I believe this was a care package mostly GF foods for Sasha who is GF-intolerant - a diet not catered for within the RF prison system, procured through an appeal on the TG channel. (which makes my decision to celebrate this event with donuts today perhaps a little frought with irony)
** The reference to being in hospital is actually connected to a protocol quarantine period, not any necessary sign of a need for treatment. All exchanged persons who went to Germany are spending a period of time at the hospital

 

[Mobbs]

Major drone and/or missile attacks on Russian facilities by Ukraine today (not long ago), and also major attacks underway on Ukraine from Russia (just now).

Morozovsk area got hit again (the airfield? dunno - just references to warehouses). There's another oil storage plant up in flames and it seems to be Rostov oblast but I dunno if it's the same hit (as I think Morozovsk is within Rostov region).

Edit: The fuel tanks are in Kamensky which is somewhere in Rostov oblast. [ASTRA]

 

[1990crow]

Weird phase right now.
Russia is moving forward, but not at great pace.
Rumours of peace talks in the near future.
But no signs of how that would actually happen given both sides are still mobilising and sending huge amounts of material to the front.

 

[Mobbs]

There's a report of a Ukrainian drone taking down a RF helicopter midair, which if true is the first time a drone has taken down an aircraft of the ground, in like, ever.

 

[Mobbs]

Fuel storage plant in Kamensky district of Rostov oblast. This area is basically just over the Ukrainian border past Luhansk oblast, a bit north of Rostov. RF reports 55 drones were involved, either here specifically or overall.
View attachment IMG_2061.mp4View attachment IMG_2064.mp4

The other reported attack in the Morozovsk district would be a different event as its on the far east side of the same region.