Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Saint]

Operationally it is a huge loss. Syria was being used as a base for all Wagner activity in Africa supporting two bit dictators. Also allowed them a warm water Mediterranean port for their navy to operate out of, repair damaged assets as Turkey controls entry to the Black Sea.

Of course Putin had to exile Assad otherwise he would have been captured and much of Putin's activities would have been exposed. It's Yanukovych all over again and the only reason both haven't fallen out of a window is their high profile.

They'll find another port around Africa to operate from. Their main show is in Ukraine now and they'll find another sympathetic dictatorship somewhere. It's not like Wagner are under threat in any of their combat zones if their re-supply is changed by a day or two from Russia rather than from Tartus. They're fighting militia-level opponents in Africa.

 

[wannabejack]

I found this an interesting article from a couple of years ago talking about why Mr P mounted his stupid invasion. It talks a bit about the role of 'white Russian' émigrés in forming intellectual justification for the invasion of Ukraine. Sadly the author predicts a very long war.
https://www.cirsd.org/files/000/000/009/83/07c4011b79675bf82057e13d0f8669ff60d67441.pdf

In Putin’s world, Ukrainians do not exist and are a branch of the pan-Russian people.
Putin’s deep obsession with Ukraine means that as long as he is Russian President, the Russo-Ukrainian war will continue.

Between 2014 and the 2022 Russian invasion, nearly three quarters of Ukrainians believed that Russia and Ukraine were at war. Seventy-two percent of Ukrainians, including 62 percent in the south and 47 percent in the east, believed Ukraine was at war with Russia.
This was not the case in Russia where the predominant view was that of a “civil war” between Russian and Ukrainian speakers, which had nothing to do with reality as most Russian speakers were fighting on Ukraine’s side.
...not a single region of Ukraine’s southeast has welcomed Russian troops, who are seen
by all Russian-speaking Ukrainians as occupiers.

 

[Saint]

Syria changing does have other problems for Russia and Iran:

• More competition for Russian gas exports into europe

View attachment 2188505

• Putin credibility damaged
• Russia's access to Africa impacted
• Russia did not pay for bases in Syria. Will this continue?
• Iran "closest ally" gone
• Iran's ability to send military equipment to other nations is impacted (Hezbollah)

Any of those pipelines could have happened via Turkey or Jordan/Israel/Sinai anyway.

Nobody (from the west) is financing a pipeline through Iran, Iraq and Syria, or Saudi, Jordan, Syria and Turkey......And even if they started today, it wouldn't be done for 10 years.

 

[Zidane98]

Any of those pipelines could have happened via Turkey or Jordan/Israel/Sinai anyway.

Nobody (from the west) is financing a pipeline through Iran, Iraq and Syria, or Saudi, Jordan, Syria and Turkey......And even if they started today, it wouldn't be done for 10 years.

Saudi / Gulf pipelines go as far as Jordan already with connections to Israel / Egypt. Completion to Europe is as simple as building pipeline(s) from Jordan to Turkey via Syria- Putin has stopped this by being Assad's mafia stand over man for security.


No reason for the west to fund this as gulf countries would save enormously on shipping costs to sell their own oil / gas. It would pay for itself pretty quickly.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

In Putin’s world, Ukrainians do not exist and are a branch of the pan-Russian people.
Putin’s deep obsession with Ukraine means that as long as he is Russian President, the Russo-Ukrainian war will continue.

Between 2014 and the 2022 Russian invasion, nearly three quarters of Ukrainians believed that Russia and Ukraine were at war. Seventy-two percent of Ukrainians, including 62 percent in the south and 47 percent in the east, believed Ukraine was at war with Russia.
This was not the case in Russia where the predominant view was that of a “civil war” between Russian and Ukrainian speakers, which had nothing to do with reality as most Russian speakers were fighting on Ukraine’s side.
...not a single region of Ukraine’s southeast has welcomed Russian troops, who are seen
by all Russian-speaking Ukrainians as occupiers.

Amazing that some believe the enemy of Ukranian people is Zelensky.


It's Putin / Russia end of story.

 

[Saint]

Saudi / Gulf pipelines go as far as Jordan already with connections to Israel / Egypt. Completion to Europe is as simple as building pipeline(s) from Jordan to Turkey via Syria- Putin has stopped this by being Assad's mafia stand over man for security.


No reason for the west to fund this as gulf countries would save enormously on shipping costs to sell their own oil / gas. It would pay for itself pretty quickly.

They could easily have gone around Syria if it was so lucrative. It's also a 10-year project, not a 3-year project.

 

[Zidane98]

They could easily have gone around Syria if it was so lucrative. It's also a 10-year project, not a 3-year project.

Not really. Turkey has existing pipelines to Europe already so that always was going to be the destination for a ME pipeline.

The only option not via Syria / Iran was Iraq and thats even less stable,right through Iraqi & Turkish Kurdistan.


Considering the existing pipeline in place in Jordan to near the Syrian border already the only realistic option always was Syria.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Saint]

Not really. Turkey has existing pipelines to Europe already so that always was going to be the destination for a ME pipeline.

The only option not via Syria / Iran was Iraq and thats even less stable,right through Iraqi & Turkish Kurdistan.


Considering the existing pipeline in place in Jordan to near the Syrian border already the only realistic option always was Syria.

Russia is muscling into a port in Libya and not really offering the local military leader much choice.

See, didn't take them long.

Russia scrambles to reinforce Libya bases after collapse of Assad regime

Kremlin reacts to uncertain future in Syria by increasing military presence in north Africa, data show

www.telegraph.co.uk

The West is trying to make a big deal out of Syria for Russia. But there's always another dictator somewhere. And it's only a matter of time until HTS fall out of favour with the West after Israel continues to try to start a war with them, and where will they turn?

 

[CD Xbow]

Russia is muscling into a port in Libya and not really offering the local military leader much choice.

See, didn't take them long.

Russia scrambles to reinforce Libya bases after collapse of Assad regime

Kremlin reacts to uncertain future in Syria by increasing military presence in north Africa, data show

www.telegraph.co.uk

The West is trying to make a big deal out of Syria for Russia. But there's always another dictator somewhere. And it's only a matter of time until HTS fall out of favour with the West after Israel continues to try to start a war with them, and where will they turn?

I think the big deal is more to do with prestige than with the practical. The Russians can set up in Libya. That Putin couldn't or wouldn't support his ally is what is significant.

 

[Zidane98]

Ukraine's developed laser defense drone system. Can take out other drones, cruise/ballistic missiles in flight.

All done without one shred of NATO help.


That must really drive those trying to sell the lie about NATO being a threat to Russia nuts.

 

[Zidane98]

Russia is muscling into a port in Libya and not really offering the local military leader much choice.

See, didn't take them long.

Russia scrambles to reinforce Libya bases after collapse of Assad regime

Kremlin reacts to uncertain future in Syria by increasing military presence in north Africa, data show

www.telegraph.co.uk

The West is trying to make a big deal out of Syria for Russia. But there's always another dictator somewhere. And it's only a matter of time until HTS fall out of favour with the West after Israel continues to try to start a war with them, and where will they turn?

They're also apparently going to base themselves in Sudan.



The thing is Putin was Assad's stand over protection in Syria and he couldn't deliver on that. Russia's lost huge credibility and setting up base with African warlords is a further blow to Russia's credibility.


Remains to be seen if HTS governs Syria long term, they'll need to form some sort of coalition with the Kurds perhaps.


HTS is not fighting Israel though or has any interest in doing so. Israel has taken out Assad chemical weapon labs and military assets of Assad loyalists. Did you see the ammunition explosion at Latakia? There won't be an uprising from pro Assad forces for sure now.


At this stage there doesn't seem to be a conflict with HTS but we'll see down the track whether that status quo remains.

 

[Visions]

Russian government looking at a proposal to bring back food stamps. Lol

This in an economy that is flourishing according to the terrorists…..

 

[Aussie in exile]

Another one dies who must have upset little legs

Igor Kirillov: Russian general killed in Moscow explosion

Lt Gen Igor Kirillov was reportedly leaving a residential block when a nearby scooter exploded.

www.bbc.com

 

[Visions]

Another one dies who must have upset little legs

Igor Kirillov: Russian general killed in Moscow explosion

Lt Gen Igor Kirillov was reportedly leaving a residential block when a nearby scooter exploded.

www.bbc.com

Nah, reckon its Ukrainian special forces doing good work way beyond enemy lines.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Nah, reckon its Ukrainian special forces doing good work way beyond enemy lines.

If that is the case Little Legs must be changing his pants every hour as he would be on their hit list, but for now I'm sticking with my theory that's he's upset Little Legs and Little Legs has decided his time is up.

 

[Chadwiko]

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6593629

 

[tricknologist]

So have the vatniks finally accepted that North Koreans are fighting in the war after the recent casualty reports? Or do they still think it's a Ukrainian psyop?

 

[Visions]

If that is the case Little Legs must be changing his pants every hour as he would be on their hit list, but for now I'm sticking with my theory that's he's upset Little Legs and Little Legs has decided his time is up.

I just think if it was an inside Kremlin job, they would have had him fall out of a window like everyone else and sweep it under the carpet as a suicide.

Exploding scooter is high profile well publicised murder that the Kremlin would like to avoid showing their people. Darya Dugina car bomb murder the Ukrainians perpetrated comes to mind.

For what its worth, the Ukrainians are claiming this one as their operation. Either way good riddance, one less war criminal in the world, day to celebrate.

 

[Baldur]

Was watching videos of Russian troops leaving Syria and even the enlisted did not seem happy. If I was a Russian private, I too would be very unhappy, Ukraine here we come, oh no.

 

[Mobbs]

This excerpt from a story was found on SOTA. Can't link it while in transit sorry. Can't remove/edit links either.



"A Window to Europe" - How a Yakut Conscript Escaped the War Through a Hole in the Fence.

The plane was already preparing for takeoff. The line of mobilized people in Ulan-Ude moved slowly. Andrei Amonov tried to be at the very end. There was not enough space in the cabin for him, and while they were waiting for the next flight, Andrei found a way out for himself. Through a hole in the fence of the military unit.

Amonov fled to Kazakhstan, then to France. Now he helps other mobilized soldiers escape the war, records videos and tells how he managed to get to France without a passport or visa.

How a road worker from a Yakut village cheated the system, challenged the authorities and won, read the story on the website.


On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Zidane98]

This excerpt from a story was found on SOTA. Can't link it while in transit sorry. Can't remove/edit links either.



"A Window to Europe" - How a Yakut Conscript Escaped the War Through a Hole in the Fence.

The plane was already preparing for takeoff. The line of mobilized people in Ulan-Ude moved slowly. Andrei Amonov tried to be at the very end. There was not enough space in the cabin for him, and while they were waiting for the next flight, Andrei found a way out for himself. Through a hole in the fence of the military unit.

Amonov fled to Kazakhstan, then to France. Now he helps other mobilized soldiers escape the war, records videos and tells how he managed to get to France without a passport or visa.

How a road worker from a Yakut village cheated the system, challenged the authorities and won, read the story on the website.


On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

Great stuff.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Little legs now appear vulnerable.

MSN