Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Mofra]

Reports that Ukraine have moved industrial diggers into Kursk and are digging in.
The last time they did that in Ukraine, only ammo shortages (US Republican obstruction) allowed Russia to retake the area, at the cost of 6 months and tens of thousands of Russian lives.

48 hour window for the Russians to repel Ukraine, after that Ukraine will be staying for a long time.

 

[jatz14]

Ukraine Seeks US Green Light for ATACMS to Hold Kursk and Press Moscow

Kyiv is asking the US to authorize the use of ATACMS for strikes in Russia during the offensive in Kursk. This would help Ukraine hold territory and influence negotiations with Moscow.

www.kyivpost.com

The long-range missiles are planned to be used to strike Russian military airfields from which Russian aircraft conduct bombing raids on Ukrainian positions. According to the source, such a political decision would help the AFU maintain control over parts of the Kursk Oblast.
“This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia – this is what it’s all about,” the advisor to Zelensky said.

Some military analysts believe the next target for Ukrainian forces might be the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant...
...Currently, the plant is guarded only by women,
…the plant’s management has no plan in case of an attack, and employees have not been instructed on what to do next.

Highly unlikely they go for the plant.

First, it's a long way and creates a long and vulnerable supply route. A military disaster in the making.

Second, despite the word nuclear, it's just an infrastructure asset.


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[jatz14]

Looks like Kursk would like to be returned to Ukranian sovereignty after it was illegally transferred to Russia SSR.

barreness should Russia cede Kursk in the name of peace?

Ethnic Ukrainians, forced to speak Russian, being liberated.

Seems a familiar story somehow.

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[jatz14]

If Ukraine can dig in and hold it, it would significantly improve their hand in negotiations. But you're against negotiations so idk man

You don't honestly think the partisans could hold an election

So Crimea is fine with Russia after it was transferred(illegally?) to Ukraine? I don't get your point

Everyone is for negotiating. Everyone recognises this only ends with negotiations.

It's your insistence that these negotiations must be on Russian terms, and give Russia everything it wants, while Ukraine only gets a temporary halt in bombing that's discordant.

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[Zidane98]

Does this mean Putin will send a cruise missile in the direction of the John Deere factories in Germany? After all tractors have caused plenty of damage to Russia's invasion. Clearly the US providing Ukraine with tractors is an unacceptable escalation that crosses another one of Putin's red lines.

 

[Zidane98]

Oh look, Russians losing setting fire to stuff




This is a cooling tower only, they've set a whole lot of car tyres on fire at the base of it. Doesn't stop the power plant from running or affect reactors directly but does mean having to reduce power output and reduce safety margins.

 

[Visions]

Oh look, Russians losing setting fire to stuff




This is a cooling tower only, they've set a whole lot of car tyres on fire at the base of it. Doesn't stop the power plant from running or affect reactors directly but does mean having to reduce power output and reduce safety margins.

They’re doing it to scare the local population, nothing more. Not going to effect the reactor itself.

But found this comment in relation to it.

 

[Visions]

Reports that Ukraine have moved industrial diggers into Kursk and are digging in.
The last time they did that in Ukraine, only ammo shortages (US Republican obstruction) allowed Russia to retake the area, at the cost of 6 months and tens of thousands of Russian lives.

48 hour window for the Russians to repel Ukraine, after that Ukraine will be staying for a long time.

Considering its already been a week and is looking to be extended for an indefinite period, it might be time to change the thread title in an ode to Putin.

War is Russia sounds pretty good.

 

[Chief]

Considering its already been a week and is looking to be extended for an indefinite period, it might be time to change the thread title in an ode to Putin.

War is Russia sounds pretty good.

Or the "War of Ukrainian Aggression" as it is known in the barreness house.

 

[barreness]

Or the "War of Ukrainian Aggression" as it is known in the barreness house.

How dare they

Nah but seriously, good on them, completely legitimate to return serve.
I don't think this changes things greatly, PR move and possibly a waste of your best troops. Seems the great advance has stalled less than 20km in, Moscow by christmas I'm sure

 

[barreness]

Everyone is for negotiating. Everyone recognises this only ends with negotiations.

It's your insistence that these negotiations must be on Russian terms, and give Russia everything it wants, while Ukraine only gets a temporary halt in bombing that's discordant.

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Damn you guys really swallow every propaganda line and just change your tune like a canary, my position hasn't changed

That's never been my insistence. Ukraine has refused to negotiate since the failed talks of '22 which they pulled out of, Zelensky decreed this was now illegal. I've always said Putin's claims were rubbish, as is Zelensky's of pre 2014 boarders and Vlad rocks up to the ICC, this is how peace deals start and they end somewhere near the line of contact. You have to come to the table though

 

[barreness]

You didn't answer my question. Should Russia cede Kursk & Belgorod to Ukraine in the name of peace?

To simplify things please choose one of the following answers:


Da
Nyet

Da, Ukraine can keep the village they've taken, as a treat

 

[Mobbs]

They’re doing it to scare the local population, nothing more. Not going to effect the reactor itself.

But found this comment in relation to it.

View attachment 2077259

Surely it's due to the media exposure of the Kursk NPP being potentially in the firing line? RF decides to fake a Ukrainian attack on the NPP at Energodar to try to instil some kind of "bad press" around Ukraine and power plants?

They set fire to tyres in the plant to fake something damaged and then created reports that it was from a Ukrainian attack ...

 

[Anzacpaul]

Forgive my ignorance, but exactly why hasn't Russia rolled over Ukraine?

Have they not committed enough troops and equipment initially due to hubris?

Was their military might really that overstated?

This campaign is seriously embarrassing for Russia, and they're are honestly lucky the west aren't warmongering or someone would be on the phone to Putin saying we'll take the rest of Russia if you don't withdraw from Ukraine immediately.

 

[jatz14]

Damn you guys really swallow every propaganda line and just change your tune like a canary, my position hasn't changed

That's never been my insistence. Ukraine has refused to negotiate since the failed talks of '22 which they pulled out of, Zelensky decreed this was now illegal. I've always said Putin's claims were rubbish, as is Zelensky's of pre 2014 boarders and Vlad rocks up to the ICC, this is how peace deals start and they end somewhere near the line of contact. You have to come to the table though

It is your insistence. You cannot take a position, then absolve yourself of the consequences of that position.

In Ukraine's estimation, a deal with Russia, under the conditions Russia wanted a deal, had worse long term consequences for Ukraine than continuing to fight did.

Thats it, its that simple.

If Russia offers a deal that is better for Ukraine than fighting on, Russia gets a deal.

Your position, that negotiations had to start now, and your position that amounted to, Ukraine must be forced to negotiate now, amount to forcing Ukraine to accept a deal that is for them, is worse than fighting on.

I dont have to come to the table if all your offering is a poke in the eye. And you cannot call a poke in the eye an opening position, or ambit claim, if 2 years later, its still your position. If you want me at the table, make me think that sitting at the table with you has some value greater than a poke in the eye.


Its like the school bully starts a fight with me to steal my pocket money, and 10 minutes later, the fight still goes on, and he doesn't have the money. Your the kid on the side lines saying, give him the money, just give it to him, what are you fighting for. That kid isn't a neutral observer who hates fighting he's the bullies sidekick, upset he isnt winning. He isn't trying to break up the fight, he's trying to get the bully a win, so I can be under their thumb.

That's what you come across as, your very upset that the fighting is still going on, not because it upsets you per se, but because it means Russia hasn't won, and forcing Ukraine to negotiate a bad deal is a way for Russia to win.

 

[Zidane98]

Spot on. Ukraine has always been open to negotiations - as long as they are reasonable. Russia's negotiations have all amounted to Ukraine rolls over to become effectively another oblast of Russia.

Once Russia comes to the table with something reasonable then Ukraine will negotiate.

A starting point for Russia has to be the fact that there is simply no possible way for Ukraine to be a vassal state of Russia ever again. That's off the table permanently and Putin is pretty much the sole party to blame for this new reality.

 

[Mobbs]

Ok this channel has a unique approach to milblogging - I did laugh when he focussed on some ridiculously complicated town name but I think he smashed it after his momentary panic!

I cannot speak for the accuracy except to say he usually seems to be fairly on-song - he is definitely being clear about the areas he's not entirely sure about. He's just reading off reports himself like most of us.

 

[barreness]

It is your insistence. You cannot take a position, then absolve yourself of the consequences of that position.

Quote me?

In Ukraine's estimation, a deal with Russia, under the conditions Russia wanted a deal, had worse long term consequences for Ukraine than continuing to fight did.

Thats it, its that simple.

If Russia offers a deal that is better for Ukraine than fighting on, Russia gets a deal.

Ok, I disagree. I think Ukraine's refusal to negotiate(or even hear offers) has been a mistake

Your position, that negotiations had to start now, and your position that amounted to, Ukraine must be forced to negotiate now, amount to forcing Ukraine to accept a deal that is for them, is worse than fighting on.

I don't know what this means, grammar? a big tautology maybe

I dont have to come to the table if all your offering is a poke in the eye. And you cannot call a poke in the eye an opening position, or ambit claim, if 2 years later, its still your position. If you want me at the table, make me think that sitting at the table with you has some value greater than a poke in the eye.

Poke in the eye is better than a knife in the guts, that's the incentive

Its like the school bully starts a fight with me to steal my pocket money, and 10 minutes later, the fight still goes on, and he doesn't have the money. Your the kid on the side lines saying, give him the money, just give it to him, what are you fighting for. That kid isn't a neutral observer who hates fighting he's the bullies sidekick, upset he isnt winning. He isn't trying to break up the fight, he's trying to get the bully a win, so I can be under their thumb.

School yard bully is a bad analogy for geopolitics. Most countries exist under the thumb of others, it's how it works. I'd say only the US and China have somewhat independence of foreign policy positions atm(even that is limited by the nuclear threat)

That's what you come across as, your very upset that the fighting is still going on, not because it upsets you per se, but because it means Russia hasn't won, and forcing Ukraine to negotiate a bad deal is a way for Russia to win.

Carrying on a war that won't be decisively won by either side is dumb

 

[Chief]

Most countries exist under the thumb of others, it's how it works.

Oh! That makes rape, murder, and theft of children OK!

It's big picture stuff.

 

[barreness]

Oh! That makes rape, murder, and theft of children OK!

It's big picture stuff.

Great, lets live in delusion

 

[Chief]

I don't even have to go on Twitter any more - got the bot pipeline right here.

 

[Saint]

Spot on. Ukraine has always been open to negotiations - as long as they are reasonable. Russia's negotiations have all amounted to Ukraine rolls over to become effectively another oblast of Russia.

Once Russia comes to the table with something reasonable then Ukraine will negotiate.

A starting point for Russia has to be the fact that there is simply no possible way for Ukraine to be a vassal state of Russia ever again. That's off the table permanently and Putin is pretty much the sole party to blame for this new reality.

Russia's position has been ludicrous since very soon after the invasion. Russia wants to pretend that all the areas under their military control are subject to viable Russian claims of sovereignty which means anything during negotiations.

Which is about as stupid as if Zelensky said the parts of Russia under Ukraine control are part of Ukraine.

There are zero countries which consider Russia's claims to eastern Ukraine as legitimate and that includes everyone in Russia except Putin.

The more of Kursk Ukraine captures, the more stupid Russia's claims on Ukraine are exposed.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Good move by Ukraine. I hope the Russians who supported the war are scared.

 

[Visions]

Forgive my ignorance, but exactly why hasn't Russia rolled over Ukraine?

Have they not committed enough troops and equipment initially due to hubris?

Was their military might really that overstated?

This campaign is seriously embarrassing for Russia, and they're are honestly lucky the west aren't warmongering or someone would be on the phone to Putin saying we'll take the rest of Russia if you don't withdraw from Ukraine immediately.

Can sum it up in 2 words.

Paper tiger.

 

[Visions]

Good move by Ukraine. I hope the Russians who supported the war are scared.

You mean like these sycophants who probably don’t have a home now?