List Mgmt. 2014 Draft Trade FA Megathread

[Dopey BJ]

Without giving away our first pick which I think we need, what might interest GWS for a trade for Shiel?

Is a 2nd rounder and Armitage a fair swap? I can't think of anyone else we'd be willing to give up that they would be interested in? Is that paying overs?

Yeah I think it is, more likely The Pelican will arrange a host of pick swaps to get it done

 

[Baldur]

I do not think we are going to be getting any real elite talent under free agency unless we are seen as a well managed club that is about to burst into finals in a big way. Maybe if everything goes right in 3 years or so, but given how we and a couple of other teams begin 6 feet under due to our stadium deal. The odds are against us, as they have been for well over 100 years.

 

[Murraj1966]

I do not think we are going to be getting any real elite talent under free agency unless we are seen as a well managed club that is about to burst into finals in a big way. Maybe if everything goes right in 3 years or so, but given how we and a couple of other teams begin 6 feet under due to our stadium deal. The odds are against us, as they have been for well over 100 years.

We were a dodgy goal umpire and a bounce away from smashing those odds twice. We can get to that point again with good list management and I believe that we will.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

I do not think we are going to be getting any real elite talent under free agency unless we are seen as a well managed club that is about to burst into finals in a big way. Maybe if everything goes right in 3 years or so, but given how we and a couple of other teams begin 6 feet under due to our stadium deal. The odds are against us, as they have been for well over 100 years.

Don't underestimate the positive relationships that our off field team have with players (especially young players from other clubs).

Trout, Ameet, Richo & now Finnis have all had close contact with & developed strong relationships with kids in the lead up to drafts &, in Finnis' case, as head of the AFLPA.

Player managers have a reasonably large influence in these decisions too... hopefully our off field team have damn good relationships with them too!

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yeah I think it is, more likely The Pelican will arrange a host of pick swaps to get it done

Pick swaps to get Dylan Sheil (who at just 21yo) on the weekend got back to his best, with 34 possessions, 7 clearances and 8 tackles, in a team that lost by 113 points?

If he was on the table and they would accept Armo and our 2nd rounder, I expect we'd take it and run like we stole him. That would be an outstanding result, especially since by next year he could potentially be as good as Armo (who will be 27 next year ) already (meaning not necessarily any short term pain for a long term gain) and yet be able to play for us for another 10 years, while Armo might only have 5 more good years in him.

Last year, at just 20yo, Sheil had 411 possessions and 73 clearances. By comparison, it took Armo until he was 24yo to have his first 400 possie (426), 79 clearance season (both from 21 games). It took Armo until his 24th year and 55th game to have his first game of over 26 possessions (a 28), whereas Dylan had a 28 (15 contested, with 9 clearances) in just his (and GWS's) 3rd AFL game, at 19yo. The most touches Armo (about to turn 26yo) has ever had in a game is 31 (despite often having played in pretty good teams), whereas Dylan has now already had a 34, at just 21yo.

Another major factor, especially with the rotations and interchange cap, is that Armo has always tended to struggle with his tank and it doesn't look like ever being very good. Last year for instance he only had 6 games where he cracked the 80% game time (most was 83%), whereas Sheil did it in 17 games last year, at just 20yo (including 5 between 84 and 87%), which would suggest he may already have a bigger tank than Dave and likely to only get bigger.

 

[Dopey BJ]

Pick swaps to get Dylan Sheil (who at just 21yo) on the weekend got back to his best, with 34 possessions, 7 clearances and 8 tackles, in a team that lost by 113 points? If he was on the table and they would accept Armo and our 2nd rounder, I expect we'd take it and run like we stole him. That would be an outstanding result.

Last year, at just 20yo, Sheil had 411 possessions and 73 clearances. By comparison, it took Armo until he was 24yo to have his first 400 possie (426), 79 clearance season (both from 21 games). It took Armo until his 24th year and 55th game to have his first game of over 26 possessions (a 28), whereas Dylan had a 28 (15 contested, with 9 clearances) in just his (and GWS's) 3rd AFL game, at 19yo. The most touches Armo (about to turn 26yo) has ever had in a game is 31, whereas Dylan has now had a 34, at just 21yo.

Another major factor, especially with the rotations and interchange cap, is that Armo has always tended to struggle with his tank and it doesn't look like ever being very good. Last year for instance he only had 6 games where he cracked the 80% game time (most was 83%), whereas Sheil did it in 17 games last year, at just 20yo (including 5 between 84 and 87%), which would suggest he may already have a bigger tank than Dave and likely to only get bigger.

Yeah agree with all that but if he wants out I don't think we would need to offer up Armo, I don't think it will be as simple as a straight trade like that.
More likely a lesser player and a swap of picks to advantage the Giants.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Maybe from a sellers perspective but from a buyers perspective one has been in and out of the team whilst the other has already had a knee reco and shown sporadic form at best.
At the end of the day they will oy get what someone is prepared to pay, and as I have said for two years or so, Dylan wants to play for St kilda.

On the other hand, they are both contracted, so GWS hold all the cards and they are not likely to trade someone they got with pick 1 a couple of years ago (who, given his size, was always likely to take a while to hit his straps, ala Tom Hawkins, and who is also currently in his first season back from said reco, at just 21yo), plus someone else, who just got back to his best on the weekend with a 34 possie, 7 clearance, 8 tackle game, in a team that got demolished- and who many have considered was/is worth a top 5 pick on his own- for just a pick like 3, I wouldn't imagine.

If we got them both for say pick 3 and Armo we'd be doing very well, especially if Sheil continues on like he was going on the weekend, particularly as they don't have to trade either of them.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Having players on your list that emphatically do not want to be there, is like gangrene for overall club and list morale.

This works extremely badly for GWS, but works flipping awesomely for us.

All those Giants early picks are coming with a SERIOUS bout of entitlement syndrome. Playing in some dunghill seconds comp for years on end when you're a first-round AFL pick is going to lead to a lot of disgruntled 20ish year olds.

Whereas, as has been said several times, we've worked extremely hard to ensure that every player - and potential player - knows that the Saints treat them well, if they treat the Saints well.

That is another reason why I think Saad is essential for our rookie draft. For that one tiny pick, we honour a promise, and that speaks volumes to other potential recruits. Saad will rabbit on and on about how wonderful we are, to anybody who'll listen - and I think there will be plenty who listen. For the sake of a rookie salary, it is worth its weight in gold.

 

[Moral Decay]

IMHO, we should go for and get Shiel, but I see very little point and capacity in paying overs for Cameron or Patton our realistic trade bait are Gilbert, Armo and Steven, with Finnis as CEO no one will be traded if they don't want to go, and unless someone absolutely wants to come to the Saints I don't see the point in participating in a bidding war just for the glory of getting "the gun player".
As a club our business is getting the best out people, players, staff and supporters, it should be our primary focus not GWS style recruiting for the sake of it, nor Collinwood's "We are the best and you should be grateful you play for or support us", by all means use our drafting wisely but concentrate on developing what we get.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yeah agree with all that but if he wants out I don't think we would need to offer up Armo, I don't think it will be as simple as a straight trade like that.
More likely a lesser player and a swap of picks to advantage the Giants.

The problem with that is that GWS would likely have no interest in a "lesser player than Armo". As it is they already have a few who you could argue are at a similar or lesser level to Armo, such as Scully (who champion data apparently rate almost identically to Armo, despite being a fair bit younger), Rhys Palmer, Dylan Addison and so-on, so they won't want to be adding any more that are just going to clog their list up, as someone "lesser than Armo" probably would. Nor would any swapping of presumably later picks be of any particular interest to GWS as they are after quality, not quantity. They want higher picks, not lower ones.

You could actually argue that if Lenny were to go on and we were to get Sheil at the end of this year that it might almost be in our best interests to trade Armo to get the deal done (if he was happy to go there and GWS wanted him), as our team next year could then have Lenny, Sheil, Dunstan and hopefully Ross in the guts (as well as Steven, Joey, and Curren and hopefully Saunders, Billings and maybe even Wright and/or Murdoch at times by then) and that that would be enough big strong units, who aren't particularly quick, in the same midfield, with another one like Weller also in the mix, if needed.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Okay, left field option.

We not only trade picks or players. But we trade Lenny as an assistant coach.

Basically, say Lenny retires at the end of this year (entirely possible). It's almost certain that he will go into coaching. What if we tried to encourage him to go to GWS as an assistant, mentoring, or line coach? Many would argue it's good for a player to move out of his club's perspectives when going into coaching, even if the goal would be for them to one day coach their original club.

I suspect there would be TONS of clubs who would want Lenny in some kind of coaching role. If we can say to GWS that they get first dibs on him, that might be very, very attractive. Surely, he's the kind of person they'd like mentoring their kids.

Of course, this becomes a nice variant on the "keep player, trade player" arguments we have - do we want to "trade" coach-Lenny, or keep him for ourselves?!

 

[L_W_P]

I'd prefer Lenny went elsewhere and learned before coming back in 5/7/10 years in some role.

Need to get out and see the AFL world for all it's glory.

 

[Persevering Saint]

I'd prefer Lenny went elsewhere and learned before coming back in 5/7/10 years in some role.

Need to get out and see the AFL world for all it's glory.

Yeah, that was my thinking. It sounds like a win-win-win. We sweeten the deal enough to get us a gun Giant or two; Lenny gets external coaching experience; GWS gets a great mentor for their kids.

 

[L_W_P]

Hopefully GWS have a senior coach worth learning off by then! Although he could hang around Sheeds and the NEAFL team...

 

[Saints_MarchingIn]

I think while everyone is caught up in a bidding war for the big guns we pull of a trade like second or third rounder for jaksch and promise him game time. I think I read somewhere he's only played two games for the giants. then we can keep our first pick for wright and have to guns instead of one.

 

[joop]

I think while everyone is caught up in a bidding war for the big guns we pull of a trade like second or third rounder for jaksch and promise him game time. I think I read somewhere he's only played two games for the giants. then we can keep our first pick for wright and have to guns instead of one.

Be careful saying that around here mate

 

[saint sational]

Exactly what I'm hoping

I think while everyone is caught up in a bidding war for the big guns we pull of a trade like second or third rounder for jaksch and promise him game time. I think I read somewhere he's only played two games for the giants. then we can keep our first pick for wright and have to guns instead of one.

Exactly what I am hoping for. But I'm hoping we can work so that we still have 3 picks inside 50.

 

[Defacto]

Anyone else hear SEN claim that Shiel has put an ultimatum to GWS....trade me at the end of this year or I walk

yes pelch excccceeeelllleeennntttt

 

[God Save Max King]

Ah yes, pull the old Doc Rivers-esque trade, but is it legal in the AFL? We'd have to trade Lenny as an out of contract player and have him retire immediately.

 

[Barrels]

Anyone else hear SEN claim that Shiel has put an ultimatum to GWS....trade me at the end of this year or I walk

 

[Barrels]

That said, a midfield of Steven, Shiel, Dunstan, Armitage, Curren and Ross - and I suppose Jonesy - feeding the ball out to Acres, Montagna, Billings and Newnes is starting to look better... Come on Len, one more year!

 

[Half Back Pocket]

Mark Allen: "Forget about Cameron. I'm hearing a big whisper about another (GWS) player who wants out, has delivered an ultimatum to the club"
Ox: "Who?"
Allen: "We'll talk more after the break...his initials - D.S."
Ox: "He'd be a Dill to do that"
Allen: "He's definitely trying to Shield himself"

paraphrased, but you get the gist...

Add him to the list Unc!!!

 

[dewah07]

happy to see him do well

 

[Barrels]

happy to see him do well

Won't happen, but you know, I still wouldn't mind seeing us give him another shot at the big dance...

 

[Persevering Saint]

Totally. A Kiwi tall forward. Let me ask you, would you rather Khan or Beau as a backup 2nd tall? I'd take Kahn every day of the week.