List Mgmt. 2015 Trade & Free Agency Hellscape Discussion Thread (PG546: Anderson PG732: Bastinac)

[osaka mick]

lets for arguments sake say Spargo's kid can come to us next year as FS, and we have just won the flag and sit 18th

our picks are 18, 36, 54,72

Hawthorn that finished last (after Carlisle's flogness infected all his team mates), nominate Spargo with pick 1,

we need to find 3000 points

18 — 985
+
36 — 502 = 1483
+
54 — 220 = 1703
+
72 — 019 = 1722

we would need to trade in 1278 points

that is
pick 12
or
picks 29 and 30

you could do this by trading out players for picks, the killer is your draft starts at the end of the draft, Spargo would have to be better then Carey to make it worth doing.

I am not sure if you can trade future pick for picks this year to get the points?

the other interesting bit is you are getting 1 player and four picks are disappearing out of the draft so all third round picks and higher in this example would move down in order.

I think I have this right.

I get your point, and agree it is crazy, BUT one flaw in your argument. 20% discount on all FS selections, if I am not mistaken, which is possible!

 

[john198071]

just cause jed been injured and it aint easy to become best 22 in 3 time premiership side doesnt mean he isnt going to be a star hawthorne were building him for there next gen but like most kids he couldnt wait anymore i reckon 15 is worth it

 

[True North]

After reading the phantom draft reports, Basti is worth pick 4 and Scott McMahon pick 12. Several of the ladies from the rep game will go top 10.

 

[Deadeyeroo]

Another stupid post.

You do realise that an 18 year old drafted at pick 15 would be "unproven" too ?

You do realise that Jed has been to 2 clubs that have been willing to move him on?

 

[Roosurgence]

It's certainly worth talking about when a 21 year old outside mid is consistently kicking goals, earning rave reviews and was just about his teams best player in the VFL grand final.

Who? Basti? He's 24 with 100 AFL games and has shown himself to be massively inconsistent and a bit flakey. Nahas is late 20s and coming off the rookie list. Turner hasn't played to anywhere near Anderson in the VFL and nor has Garner (although Garner would definitely be worth a first rounder).

We're not overpaying; I think it likely that the club has their rankings of players in the draft this year and they rate Anderson higher than a majority of kids they are likely to pick up in the late first round. It also must be remembered that a large part of why he hasn't been selected (as described by Hawthorn fans in this thread) is because he's had injuries that have occurred at inopportune times as well as suffering a serious illness that affected him for over a year. He was also his states captain (as a bottom age I'm pretty sure) and was preselected by the GWS otherwise he likely would have been top 10 and that's why he's still worth a first rounder as a 21 year old.

If we had guys that had Anderson's skillset - quick, great tackler, good skills, kicks goals - performing to his level in the VFL they would have been picked this year. In fact, we picked Garner and Turner off poorer performances that that. With that considered, it's fairly easy to see how he makes us better next year: his skill set is one we are in desperate need of and he's been performing at a good enough level to be selected. It's really not hard to see how he improves us.

I see you have taken a visit to Waverley Park and been drinking the cool aid.

If this kid was everything you are claiming him to be then Hawthorn would be absolutely moronic go let him go, especially as he is contracted. They don't even have him in their plans for next year otherwise why would he be seeking game time? Surely if he was that valuable Hawthorn would have been in his ear telling him that his opportunities will come in 2016?

But guess what they aren't coming out and stating he is untouchable, I wonder why? Because surely the guy you have described is the second coming......

They are probably pissing themselves laughing at how easy it is to bend over North.

 

[TommyVercetti]

Now where near a Grand Final in 2015, despite our finals series.
No decent Free Agents.
No decent players looking at a fair trade.
If we want to be 2016 premiers we have to take risks.
Get the kid!

 

[archereleven]

It's certainly worth talking about when a 21 year old outside mid is consistently kicking goals, earning rave reviews and was just about his teams best player in the VFL grand final.

Who? Basti? He's 24 with 100 AFL games and has shown himself to be massively inconsistent and a bit flakey. Nahas is late 20s and coming off the rookie list. Turner hasn't played to anywhere near Anderson in the VFL and nor has Garner (although Garner would definitely be worth a first rounder).

We're not overpaying; I think it likely that the club has their rankings of players in the draft this year and they rate Anderson higher than a majority of kids they are likely to pick up in the late first round. It also must be remembered that a large part of why he hasn't been selected (as described by Hawthorn fans in this thread) is because he's had injuries that have occurred at inopportune times as well as suffering a serious illness that affected him for over a year. He was also his states captain (as a bottom age I'm pretty sure) and was preselected by the GWS otherwise he likely would have been top 10 and that's why he's still worth a first rounder as a 21 year old.

If we had guys that had Anderson's skillset - quick, great tackler, good skills, kicks goals - performing to his level in the VFL they would have been picked this year. In fact, we picked Garner and Turner off poorer performances that that. With that considered, it's fairly easy to see how he makes us better next year: his skill set is one we are in desperate need of and he's been performing at a good enough level to be selected. It's really not hard to see how he improves us.

I must need more convincing than others, because the fact he has been injured for half his football life says to me he wont improve shit while he is on the side lines. Yeah, yeah, well back Saunders etc etc Jed could be another tazza who we get 45 games from in the next 6-7 seasons.

Worth it then?

 

[True North]

Nahas kicked 7 only a few weeks ago. Basti got 42 touches a few weeks before that.

is Anderson going to be better then
View attachment 184802


he kicked 46 goals in one game for Endeavour Hills so legend has it.

Nahas should have played finals. Stiffest bloke ever ( no pun intended )!

 

[nelroo]

It's certainly worth talking about when a 21 year old outside mid is consistently kicking goals, earning rave reviews and was just about his teams best player in the VFL grand final.

Who? Basti? He's 24 with 100 AFL games and has shown himself to be massively inconsistent and a bit flakey. Nahas is late 20s and coming off the rookie list. Turner hasn't played to anywhere near Anderson in the VFL and nor has Garner (although Garner would definitely be worth a first rounder).

We're not overpaying; I think it likely that the club has their rankings of players in the draft this year and they rate Anderson higher than a majority of kids they are likely to pick up in the late first round. It also must be remembered that a large part of why he hasn't been selected (as described by Hawthorn fans in this thread) is because he's had injuries that have occurred at inopportune times as well as suffering a serious illness that affected him for over a year. He was also his states captain (as a bottom age I'm pretty sure) and was preselected by the GWS otherwise he likely would have been top 10 and that's why he's still worth a first rounder as a 21 year old.

If we had guys that had Anderson's skillset - quick, great tackler, good skills, kicks goals - performing to his level in the VFL they would have been picked this year. In fact, we picked Garner and Turner off poorer performances that that. With that considered, it's fairly easy to see how he makes us better next year: his skill set is one we are in desperate need of and he's been performing at a good enough level to be selected. It's really not hard to see how he improves us.

I've given up KS
Looks like this thread is not going to do its best work after midnight..
I'm tipping some on here might have some egg on their face next year.
One last thing I will say on Anderson..
I would consider Garner in similar light to Jed with his potential ceiling and injury history. If he was contracted with us and wanted out, there is no doubt most posters on here would be wanting a first round for him and would feel short changed with anything less..
Ill leave it at that.

 

[Rooboy 96]

I get your point, and agree it is crazy, BUT one flaw in your argument. 20% discount on all FS selections, if I am not mistaken, which is possible!

I may be wrong, but I thought the 20% discount was for Academy players, some bullshit about developing the talent, but I could be wrong. even with the 20% you would still lose all your picks and have to trade for 800 odd points.

 

[Johndory]

The question about anderson is not whether he's any good or not. The question is how good can can he become? There's no doubt that he'll become a good player if we get him and he stays injury free. Im expecting him to average around 15-20 touches a game at first but more importantly he fills the need of a fast outside mid, which we really need for the thousandth time.

 

[Dan]

Are we looking at Jed Anderson?

 

[Tas]

So, looking at where we are at list-wise.

Outgoing players so far: Adams, Grima and McMahon retired, Wallace and Warren rookies de-listed.
Currie looks like he is going to GC. Bastinac possible trade to Brisbane. Black possible to trade to wherever.

Exiting players in our best 22 exiting: Zero

Our pick were 15, 34, 52, 70, 88, 106, 124. The ones after 34 are likely moving back after compensations.

Our rookies remaining: Fordham, Nahas & Preuss. I'm not sure if any of them will be promoted.

Players who didn't figure prominently in the finals: Wells (injured), Nahas (depth), Thomas (injured), Tippett (depth), Currie (depth), Black (form), Daw (depth), Bastinac (form), Mullett (injured/form), Harper (injured/form), McKenzie (development), Wood (development), McDonald (development), Dumont (development), Vickers-Willis (development), Nielson (development and Durdin (development)

Lets assume Currie, Black and Bastinac are traded, if we don't trade anyone in we will be taking in 6 senior listed players and 2 rookies, assuming nobody else is cut. We already have 13 players under 23, that will push us to 21 players under 23, basically around half our squad.

I think we still have a lot of talent on our list.

1st round picks not playing a major role in the side atm: Durdin, McDonald, Garner, McKenzie
Talented 2nd round picks not playing a major role in the side atm: Bastinac, Black, Harper, Wood, Dumont, Nielson, Vickers-Willis

We already have a significant amount of talent to be injected into our side.

I think we have scope to trade in someone like Anderson, being 21 and the attributes he has is probably going to do a lot more for us than sticking on a KPP, flanker or outside mid that is going to be 4 years stuck in our queue of talented players who do not have any opportunity. We have vacancy for a specific player type and he fits the bill, I would have preferred we had a crack at Bennell as well but I think he was determined to return home.

I think Anderson would be a good fit for our team in the short-term and our list in the long-term. If we can get a reasonable pick in addition to Anderson then that would be a good outcome imo. I think we are in a good position to transition into a strong team post the retirement of the older group.

 

[osaka mick]

I may be wrong, but I thought the 20% discount was for Academy players, some bullshit about developing the talent, but I could be wrong. even with the 20% you would still lose all your picks and have to trade for 800 odd points.

I know. Its still such a high price, but I still think the 20% applies. It may actually be 25% with 20% for the academy players! Sure someone will know for sure.

 

[Rooboy 96]

The question about anderson is not whether he's any good or not. The question is how good can can he become? There's no doubt that he'll become a good player if we get him and he stays injury free. Im expecting him to average around 15-20 touches a game at first but more importantly he fills the need of a fast outside mid, which we really need for the thousandth time.

don't start backtracking, he has to be the difference next year, while we have Boomer, Mickey, Dal, Wells and Drew. we don't have time to Waite.

I am starting to lean back to "NO WAY DO WE HELP HAWTHORN OUT"

would we be better off taking Wayne Milera and Daniel Rioli with our first two picks?

 

[Deadeyeroo]

My biggest concern for the club atm is not giving up 1st rounders for good VFL players, but the fact that with all the players we've tipped in for, not one has picked North to come to except JA.

I wonder if Scotts change in coaching philosophy has hurt us in the recruiting department.

 

[Thewlis Dish]

Just because he is on Hawthorns list, it doesn't mean he is magically a gun.

And just because he's not in Hawthorn's 22, doesn't mean he is automatically a dud.

 

[Deadeyeroo]

And just because he's not in Hawthorn's 22, doesn't mean he is automatically a dud.

But when you've been let go by 2 clubs already there hasnt been many players come back from that.

 

[Roosurgence]

And just because he's not in Hawthorn's 22, doesn't mean he is automatically a dud.

No one is saying he is a dud, but for Pick 15 I would be wanting more than a maybe, otherwise I may as well take my chances in the draft.

 

[royalblue92]

I wonder if Scotts change in coaching philosophy has hurt us in the recruiting department.

Post surgery Brad? He would have never let talk of Bastinac happen before he started cracking the whip

 

[kangaspurs]

I see you have taken a visit to Waverley Park and been drinking the cool aid.

If this kid was everything you are claiming him to be then Hawthorn would be absolutely moronic go let him go, especially as he is contracted. They don't even have him in their plans for next year otherwise why would he be seeking game time? Surely if he was that valuable Hawthorn would have been in his ear telling him that his opportunities will come in 2016?

But guess what they aren't coming out and stating he is untouchable, I wonder why? Because surely the guy you have described is the second coming......

They are probably pissing themselves laughing at how easy it is to bend over North.

Never described him as the 'second coming,' just as a player that offers the exact skillset that we need now and when the likes of Wells, Dal and Boomer retire.

You're clearly missing the part where Hawthorn have said they want to keep him. Anderson himself has said that he wants to see if there is any interest in him and the club happy to facilitate that request. It just also happens to be that Hawthorn now see an opportunity to use a player that may want out as a tool in getting the player they've targeted and that fills a desperate need for him.

In any case, I'm not sure how saying Hawthorn are trading him is a reason why he's not worth 15, just as its not a reason to say that he is worth 15. Surely it's the players skillset, how he fits in the side, potential, performances and attitude that determine his worth and based on those metrics he is definitely worth it. Particularly when it's at the expense of a prospect that is only a couple of years younger than him with a lower standard of relative performance (if that's the conclusion the list management staff have made when comparing Anderson to projected late first round picks).

To also reply to your above post; every draft pick is a maybe as is Anderson. Its just that, on the evidence, Anderson is less of a maybe than the draft pick.

 

[Dodecahedron]

After watching some videos and interviews with Jed, if that kid wants to come to North, let's just get it done. Pick 15 whatever, just get it done.

 

[KangaFan35]

It's certainly worth talking about when a 21 year old outside mid is consistently kicking goals, earning rave reviews and was just about his teams best player in the VFL grand final.

Who? Basti? He's 24 with 100 AFL games and has shown himself to be massively inconsistent and a bit flakey. Nahas is late 20s and coming off the rookie list. Turner hasn't played to anywhere near Anderson in the VFL and nor has Garner (although Garner would definitely be worth a first rounder).

We're not overpaying; I think it likely that the club has their rankings of players in the draft this year and they rate Anderson higher than a majority of kids they are likely to pick up in the late first round. It also must be remembered that a large part of why he hasn't been selected (as described by Hawthorn fans in this thread) is because he's had injuries that have occurred at inopportune times as well as suffering a serious illness that affected him for over a year. He was also his states captain (as a bottom age I'm pretty sure) and was preselected by the GWS otherwise he likely would have been top 10 and that's why he's still worth a first rounder as a 21 year old.

If we had guys that had Anderson's skillset - quick, great tackler, good skills, kicks goals - performing to his level in the VFL they would have been picked this year. In fact, we picked Garner and Turner off poorer performances that that. With that considered, it's fairly easy to see how he makes us better next year: his skill set is one we are in desperate need of and he's been performing at a good enough level to be selected. It's really not hard to see how he improves us.

That's a very good point, we haven't traded any of our top picks for a while now and if Jed Anderson was in this years draft I would take him with pick 15 for sure. I definitely think we should get a better pick than 41 to go with him but if he can stay fit I reckon we will look back at this trade pretty happy.

 

[Rooboy 96]

I know. Its still such a high price, but I still think the 20% applies. It may actually be 25% with 20% for the academy players! Sure someone will know for sure.

I am really looking forward to watching how it works, do you know if you can trade picks during the draft? or do you have to have the points ready to use?

 

[Deadeyeroo]

Never described him as the 'second coming,' just as a player that offers the exact skillset that we need now and when the likes of Wells, Dal and Boomer retire.

You're clearly missing the part where Hawthorn have said they want to keep him. Anderson himself has said that he wants to see if there is any interest in him and the club happy to facilitate that request. It just also happens to be that Hawthorn now see an opportunity to use a player that may want out as a tool in getting the player they've targeted and that fills a desperate need for him.

In any case, I'm not sure how saying Hawthorn are trading him is a reason why he's not worth 15, just as its not a reason to say that he is worth 15. Surely it's the players skillset, how he fits in the side, potential, performances and attitude that determine his worth and based on those metrics he is definitely worth it. Particularly when it's at the expense of a prospect that is only a couple of years younger than him with a lower standard of relative performance (if that's the conclusion the list management staff have made when comparing Anderson to projected late first round picks).

To also reply to your above post; every draft pick is a maybe as is Anderson. Its just that, on the evidence, Anderson is less of a maybe than the draft pick.

Of course they want to keep him he's contracted next year. Dont be so gullible, clubs will tell you whatever you want to hear. This is Hawthorn bending us over plain and simple, showing us there still the big dogs, however you want to put it. North needs to play hardball.