List Mgmt. 2021 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

[Ticky009]

Hi everyone, for those interested some great links plus the Big Footy Draft, Trade & Free Agency twitter as per below:

 

[RUNVS]

The key words being best available whoever that is take him worry about needs later.

Except if all teams just took the best available player every team would have a super lopsided list.

"Why does your team have 18 ruckmen"?

"Well they were the best available at our draft picks"

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Except if all teams just took the best available player every team would have a super lopsided list.

"Why does your team have 18 ruckmen"?

"Well they were the best available at our draft picks"

Luckily there ain’t any rucks worth it. I am comfortable taking JVR if he’s there he’s be best available anyway just can’t see him getting past the Giants or Brisbane

 

[anotherletdown]

If we have upgraded 3 rookies, it means that we are not necessarily required to take 3 selections in the draft. Everyone keeps mentioning that we will take Paddy and Anderson in the rookie draft but we have already guaranteed that we will resign Taylor as a rookie.

Gee I hope someone 'steals' Taylor as a delisted free agent sometime in the next couple of weeks.

 

[dosser]

So long as these are best available I’m happy enough.

Making you happy is what it's all about.

 

[tombomb]

This pipe dream for Moore is weird. It won’t happen. Develop within.

Of all the suggestions that get made on here, Moore seems like one of the less far fetched.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Of all the suggestions that get made on here, Moore seems like one of the less far fetched.

It is about as likely as Petracca joining us next season

 

[dosser]

It is about as likely as Petracca joining us next season

He's what??!?!?

 

[tombomb]

It is about as likely as Petracca joining us next season

I think there is a more of a chance Darcy Moore is playing for us in 2023 than Petracca.

But only time will tell ....

 

[LukeParkerno1]

He's what??!?!?

One can have a pipe dream like Moore is lol

 

[Bloods86]

He is at least rated in the top 25 or so that’s a positive lol

Ling was rated inside the top 25 by Cal Twomey, FoxSports, ZeroHanger etc. All had him mentioned or picked at pick 22. Twomey had him at 21 for a while.

Interestingly, Stoddart was much higher rated than I remember. Consistently rated in the 20s by the usual suspects, we got him for 53. Obviously didn't turn out though. But goes to show how much ratings mean sometimes, and 'best available' is pretty subjective. Like what does 'best' even mean. Best on potential, best on current talent, best on recent exposed form, best on impact to the team making the pick (i.e. needs).

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Ling was rated inside the top 25 by Cal Twomey, FoxSports, ZeroHanger etc. All had him mentioned or picked at pick 22. Twomey had him at 21 for a while.

Interestingly, Stoddart was much higher rated than I remember. Consistently rated in the 20s by the usual suspects, we got him for 53. Obviously didn't turn out though. But goes to show how much ratings mean sometimes, and 'best available' is pretty subjective. Like what does 'best' even mean. Best on potential, best on current talent, best on recent exposed form, best on impact to the team making the pick (i.e. needs).

Stoddart was seen as a steal at the time I was happy still believe he could have worked but unfortunately had limitations. I'm just more annoyed over the ones taken after Ling not the pick itself especially Oscar Allen among others.

 

[dosser]

As was said earlier, you draft for talent and trade for needs. If you have a bunch of talented HBFs but the best player at your pick is a talented HBF, then you pick them. You can then use them (or one of the other HBFs) to trade for the 'need' down the track because they are viewed as talented and are therefore valuable to someone.

 

[Bloods86]

Stoddart was seen as a steal at the time I was happy still believe he could have worked but unfortunately had limitations. I'm just more annoyed over the ones taken after Ling not the pick itself especially Oscar Allen among others.

Oh yeah, it's definitely annoying, but not one I blame the club too much for, or Ling. Just unfortunate.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

As was said earlier, you draft for talent and trade for needs. If you have a bunch of talented HBFs but the best player at your pick is a talented HBF, then you pick them. You can then use them (or one of the other HBFs) to trade for the 'need' down the track because they are viewed as talented and are therefore valuable to someone.

Yep 100% and whether she on here don't believe it next year is looking a bumper KPP draft. It actually makes sense to go tall then. Now that doesn't mean you don't look at a tall this draft, but it's not going to bother me if we say, you know what we'll add Paddy, and back Melican (not that I rate him) and the other defenders in. We were a kick off a top 6 finish...

 

[Bloods86]

As was said earlier, you draft for talent and trade for needs. If you have a bunch of talented HBFs but the best player at your pick is a talented HBF, then you pick them. You can then use them (or one of the other HBFs) to trade for the 'need' down the track because they are viewed as talented and are therefore valuable to someone.

If you're right at the start of a rebuild, maybe you just pick talent and some will undoubtedly switch and fill other roles, some you can use as trade value. When you already have a bunch of young mids, half backs, small forwards who might form a potential flag side in the coming years (which I think we're all reasonably optimistic on for the most part), this makes zero sense. Trading in for needs is largely external to our control - a player has to want to come, we have to beat others to the deal (much harder sans COLA), maybe all our wishlist players will re-sign with their current clubs, or the other club doesn't want picks or a promising HB. The thing in our control is to maximise our chances via the draft, of filling any needs by the time we could compete for a flag (with the players in other positions). It makes zero sense to keep kicking the can down the road in our case.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

If you're right at the start of a rebuild, maybe you just pick talent and some will undoubtedly switch and fill other roles, some you can use as trade value. When you already have a bunch of young mids, half backs, small forwards who might form a potential flag side in the coming years (which I think we're all reasonably optimistic on for the most part), this makes zero sense. Trading in for needs is largely external to our control - a player has to want to come, we have to beat others to the deal (much harder sans COLA), maybe all our wishlist players will re-sign with their current clubs. The thing in our control is to maximise our chances via the draft, of filling any needs by the time we could compete for a flag (with the players in other positions). It makes zero sense to keep kicking the can down the road in our case.

Even if we go tall this year apart from JVR none are going to be ready for 3+ years. Next year from all the experts and I trust them here, is a better bet for taels. We have two prime first rounders, we could potentially flip both next year for a prime top end pick. Think next year is the better bet for taels. Not saying don't consider a tall but we have to be careful

 

[Bloods86]

Even if we go tall this year apart from JVR none are going to be ready for 3+ years. Next year from all the experts and I trust them here, is a better bet for taels. We have two prime first rounders, we could potentially flip both next year for a prime top end pick. Think next year is the better bet for taels. Not saying don't consider a tall but we have to be careful

The fact that they take time to develop, seems to me a very logical reason why drafting a KPD this year is a much better idea than waiting for next year, which we would be hoping turns out better, rather than know it will. Are we trying to build a potential flag list or are we just trying to 'win' drafts based on the mock ratings? I mean if we don't think we're much of a chance for another 4-5 years, then I get waiting. I'd hope to think we're competing within 2-3.

Pick a KPD somewhere this year. Pick a KPD next year. Easy. Likelihood is that one of Gould or BOC won't get another deal, or both. Melican may or may not be able to get consistency going to extend beyond 2023. Paddy is a hit and hope. We literally have 1 KPD beyond next year that anyone has great confidence in, whereas we have at least some exposed, optimistic depth everywhere else (that we're going to add to anyway). If we end up with too many, hey we've got trade value.

 

[dosser]

If you're right at the start of a rebuild, maybe you just pick talent and some will undoubtedly switch and fill other roles, some you can use as trade value. When you already have a bunch of young mids, half backs, small forwards who might form a potential flag side in the coming years (which I think we're all reasonably optimistic on for the most part), this makes zero sense. Trading in for needs is largely external to our control - a player has to want to come, we have to beat others to the deal (much harder sans COLA), maybe all our wishlist players will re-sign with their current clubs, or the other club doesn't want picks or a promising HB. The thing in our control is to maximise our chances via the draft, of filling any needs by the time we could compete for a flag (with the players in other positions). It makes zero sense to keep kicking the can down the road in our case.

I know what you are saying, but if you look at the teams that played in the GF, 3 of the 4 KPBs were traded in. I don't have the inclination to look back at who was traded to get them, but if you have enough talent on the rest of the ground then you can trade a player and picks to get what you need. A KPB is the final piece of the puzzle but it is also one of the most important pieces. The team with the best defence usually wins the GF, so we stock up with talent and when one of them wants to go home then we use that to fill the need. This is the situation that played out with Jetta and Sinclair; if we have any sort of leverage (and that is a sore point) then we use the excess talent to trade to fill our need.

 

[Ticky009]

Sydney interviewed Goater twice it seems

The four clubs who have ‘doubled up’ their interest in top-20 draft hopeful

He played in the VFL for Essendon in 2021.

www.sen.com.au

 

[Bloods86]

I know what you are saying, but if you look at the teams that played in the GF, 3 of the 4 KPBs were traded in. I don't have the inclination to look back at who was traded to get them, but if you have enough talent on the rest of the ground then you can trade a player and picks to get what you need. A KPB is the final piece of the puzzle but it is also one of the most important pieces. The team with the best defence usually wins the GF, so we stock up with talent and when one of them wants to go home then we use that to fill the need. This is the situation that played out with Jetta and Sinclair; if we have any sort of leverage (and that is a sore point) then we use the excess talent to trade to fill our need.

Traded in from SA or Qld, to Vic clubs. Very important point. I think it's going to be much harder to attract good, established players to us, given the disparity between what our $ are worth, vs others. We may get lucky on a lifestyle, or culture front (or if the original club flubs the process e.g. Ladhams), but it's going to be much harder now we can't give closer value to others who will be in the market for those same players. I'm not saying we couldn't use surplus talent elsewhere to satisfy clubs, but they aren't the ones who ultimately decide which club to move to. Our best bet, our most likely reward, is to draft.

Also ignores Petty, Cordy, Wood, but ok.

And if we're going to look at successful teams, and use anecdotes, I mean we could look at Richmond with Rance, Grimes, Astbury, Broad, Balta.

 

[dosser]

Traded in from SA or Qld, to Vic clubs. Very important point. I think it's going to be much harder to attract good, established players to us, given the disparity between what our $ are worth, vs others. We may get lucky on a lifestyle, or culture front (or if the original club flubs the process e.g. Ladhams), but it's going to be much harder now we can't give closer value to others who will be in the market for those same players. I'm not saying we couldn't use surplus talent elsewhere to satisfy clubs, but they aren't the ones who ultimately decide which club to move to.

Also ignores Petty, Cordy, Wood, but ok.

I agree that we have our own hurdles in attracting players, however my point still remains. And I wasn't ignoring the other members in the backline because I don't think anyone trades in their entire backline. Maybe the point here is that good KPBs don't grow on trees (even though some of them look like they have just come down from them - Micky Martin ) so it is probably more common to try to trade for those guys which means that you have to have something of value to trade with in the first place. Hence taking the best available at the draft.

OK, on reflection, I will amend my statement to apply particularly to round 1 - take the best available and then maybe draft for needs later.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I would be happy with Goater it’s why I want that Dogs pick 23 too.

 

[Bloods86]

I agree that we have our own hurdles in attracting players, however my point still remains. And I wasn't ignoring the other members in the backline because I don't think anyone trades in their entire backline. Maybe the point here is that good KPBs don't grow on trees (even though some of them look like they have just come down from them - Micky Martin ) so it is probably more common to try to trade for those guys which means that you have to have something of value to trade with in the first place. Hence taking the best available at the draft.

OK, on reflection, I will amend my statement to apply particularly to round 1 - take the best available and then maybe draft for needs later.

Yeah, look if JVR isn't there at pick 18/19 or if we don't think he's worth that as a KPD, or has just used his size disproportionately to his talent, then I'm fine with us taking a hybrid or outside mid / wing potential player. I've mentioned Wilmot and Chesser a few times (but more in terms of positions they could move to, rather than HB exposure). But I also won't complain if the club thinks that Bazzo or some other KPD has a high chance of being an A grade player, and 'reaches'. I think some circumstances and stages in a clubs flag profile warrant that, like ours.

For what it's worth, I added it to my previous comment late, we could look at Richmond for example - Rance, Grimes, Astbury, Broad, Balta. All drafted.

 

[dosser]

Yeah, look if JVR isn't there at pick 18/19 or if we don't think he's worth that as a KPD, or has just used his size disproportionately to his talent, then I'm fine with us taking a hybrid or outside mid / wing potential player. I've mentioned Wilmot and Chesser a few times (but more in terms of positions they could move to, rather than HB exposure). But I also won't complain if the club thinks that Bazzo or some other KPD has a high chance of being an A grade player, and 'reaches'. I think some circumstances and stages in a clubs flag profile warrant that, like ours.

For what it's worth, I added it to my previous comment late, we could look at Richmond for example - Rance, Grimes, Astbury, Broad, Balta. All drafted.

Yep, Richmond is a great example of drafting right. One of the things I find of interest is that for his first few years, Rance was not good at all and was a bit of a whipping boy for their fans. He even shopped himself around to other clubs at the end of one of those seasons. It was only when he had been on their list for about 4-5 years that he started to show something, which makes you realise that this is a familiar trajectory for the big backs. Rance, Grundy, Richards, etc all looked completely lost at first until one year it clicked. That is why I am not at all prepared to write off Melican as it could be that something will click and he will make a fool of his detractors. Many have.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Look from my perspective on the KPDs we are just about x'd out.

Ramps is near toast and has been umpired out of the game.

Tommy Mac is a good developing KPD.

We otherwise only have a D- Grader in Melican and untried folks in Gould and BOC. Neither inspire confidence.