Preview 2022 Rd 6 Carlton vs Fremantle - Saturday 23rd April 7.40PM @ Optus Stadium - Team Post #774

[CeeDee88]

Considering they don’t train till tomorrow before flying out I doubt this is anything but bait.

Interesting it came from a Freo fan as well. Would suggest definitely bait

 

[morningbrown]

But we didn't.

Close to losing 2 not 3.

Beat Hawks by 1pt & Power by 3pts.

They could have easily lost to Adelaide & didn't. Only won by 1pt.

I'm more pointing out the fact that Freo are in winning form and it's unfair to denounce it based on their opposition when we could do the exact same for Carlton. And yes we nearly lost to the Dogs, it was their kicking for goal that saved us.

So we were close to losing some games but the Dockers weren't when they beat the Crows by a point?

Was just showing that it's silly to dismiss their formline based on who they beat.

 

[morningbrown]

Anyway lot of people seem to routinely underestimate our opponents and then we go and dish up trollop. Happened vs the Suns....

 

[IronMan29]

Still a great chance to see his WA family and support the team as captain.

I personally think he plays, but he’s 100% on the plane either way.

I agree its a great opportunity to visit the family but ive also been told that they won't take any risk with the hamstring tightening up because he is confined to a 4 hour flight. If any doubt then he won't be risked. I just don't think they will jeopardise the team because of convienance.

Happy if he plays but not if he ain't right. So far he hasn't done a great deal at training.

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[Arr0w]

Was just showing that it's silly to dismiss their formline based on who they beat.

I doubt anyone is dismissing their formline, but some people here are stating we have no chance in winning which is bizzare

 

[Aphrodite]

Anyway lot of people seem to routinely underestimate our opponents and then we go and dish up trollop. Happened vs the Suns....

I am not dismissing their formline or underestimating them.

Was responding to your post - 'Freo are legit' which I responded 'Wouldn't go that far (yet)'.

 

[myblueroan]

If you don't like discussion of betting odds, please look away now...

Carlton is 5th shortest odds to make the 8 and top 4 this year. Despite being 6th on the ladder with crappy % and a few close calls.

We are shorter odds than STK and Freo, whom are both higher than us on the ladder, suggesting our start to the year is 'more convincing' than either of those two.

Dunno.
I think we could get very excited if we beat the Saints. They look good.
So hard to tell!!

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

How good is it going into each week with a chance to actually win! Loving my boys!!!

 

[SurreyBlue]

Have heard Cripps is flying over (to see family) but won’t play this weekend. Will be reported tomorrow.

Richmond fans tried something similar before our R1 game.....sounds good mate.

 

[Beyond Blue]

His own mind. If Cripps flies over he plays, if he misses he aint flying over with a suspect hamstring.

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I agree the bloke has probably made it up to big note himself but he flew over in 2019 when we beat them despite missing the game due to injury so it wouldn’t be entirely surprising given most of his family live in WA.

There’s only really a risk of re-injury from the flight if he plays as he’s hardly going to damage it walking up and down the plane’s cabin isle.

 

[IronMan29]

I agree the bloke has probably made it up to big note himself but he flew over in 2019 when we beat them despite missing the game due to injury so it wouldn’t be entirely surprising given most of his family live in WA.

There’s only really a risk of re-injury from the flight if he plays as he’s hardly going to damage it walking up and down the plane’s cabin isle.

I can't remember what his injury was the last time, was it a knee?

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[Own The Future]

But we didn't.

Close to losing 2 not 3.

Beat Hawks by 1pt & Power by 3pts.

They could have easily lost to Adelaide & didn't. Only won by 1pt.

I think the 12pt margin in the WB game is deceiving. That game really should have been won by them - so many gettable set shots missed, the ball basically stuck in their half and so many iffy disposals from us. It may not have been quite as dramatic as the HAW/PA games, but I’d put it damn close.

 

[Davey33]

View attachment 1376604​

Formline

Carlton:

W-W-W-L-W

We beat the Tigers in Round 1, coming from being 20 points down to 20 points up. Cripps, Kennedy, Cerra, Hewitt ran rampant. We then beat WB in a performance dominated by our talls up forward, with McKay and Curnow kicking 9 between them; we faded late and they almost caught us, but Charlie’s final term saw them off.

The game against Hawthorn was a gruelling experience in stress, with us being the clearly better side early and kicking out to a significant lead, only to have them spend the entire rest of the match chipping away at that lead and taking it from us late. Still, due to a clever handpass from Fisher and a goal from Silvagni, we retook the lead and the backline were intelligent enough – after two and a half terms of the midfield playing dumb football – to slow the game down late and we held on for the win.

We were burnt against GC. No Pittonett, Cripps with a hamstring, no Oscar or Gov or Durdin. GC beat an insipid midfield group courtesy of Witts absolutely demolishing TDK and Jack – with Jack being oddly the better option, despite the difference in height – and GC beating us in contested ball and clearances. We, in turn, could not get the ball beyond centre wing; conditions were quite dewy, but it was seemingly only one side that could compensate for them. We spent all afternoon fumbling, and looked arguably worse than we have for almost two seasons.

We touched up Port for two terms, and looked for all money like a top 4 side. 6 goals a term twice. We then proceeded to collapse into a heap, and it took a contested mark and conversion from Charlie and half a dozen acts of defense from a number of players to get us over the line.

What the form line suggests is that our best is sublime, but for whatever reason the long break is not working to reset the team, get them or keep them hungry. Whatever that is, we need to fix it pronto, because Fremantle are not going to die wondering.


Fremantle:

W-L-W-W-W

Their game against Adelaide in round 1 was a close one, with them only just pipping Adelaide by a point. Adelaide is a bit of a tricky team at home – when they get on a roll, they frequently kick 5 goals + on the trot – so this shows maturity that they are perhaps not well known for under Longmuir.

The loss they had to St Kilda was at home and was a game that they were expected to win. Having said that, St Kilda are another side that is 4-1, so perhaps this is not so bad a loss as all that. The interesting thing about this game is that St Kilda outtackled them, so that’s potentially a way in.

Their win against WC came when WC were at their most depleted; a top 4 side would have won that game by more arguably, but we’ve not beaten anyone by 55 points yet so we’ll see. Their defeat of GWS at home is interesting, because while they outpossessed GWS they lost the clearances; the only noteworthy statistical observation that can be made here is that Freo didn’t just win the free kick count, it was 42 frees to 16 for the game. GWS can certainly be undisciplined, but a +26 differential’s genuinely absurd.

They absolutely poleaxed Essendon, with a ten goal run that started in the second quarter and finished halfway through the last. Taberner kicked 7, the first time he’s done so in his career. Brayshaw had 34; he’s having an exceptional year, and alongside Mundy and Serong are their best, but Freo are remarkable for their spread of contributors.

They’ve beaten two teams that I’d consider to be noteworthy in GWS and Adelaide at home. It will take a strong performance from us to get over them in Perth.



Observations

• Both teams coming off a six day break
• Both teams in Melbourne this week, needing to travel back; ie, travel might not be a factor
• We average more of the ball, more clearances, more inside 50’s more rebound 50’s. Fremantle average more tackles a game, and force their opponents to kick the ball more; this suits their method, as they seek to create hacked kicks to intercept and set up their offense.
• Carlton 63.8 clangers; Fremantle 62.2; while we get significantly more of the ball, both sides fu** it up at about the same rate.
• Dockers average 70.2 turnovers a game, Carlton 68.8. Dockers 73.8 intercept possessions, Carlton 71.5
• Scoring: Fremantle are finally coming out of a bit of a scoring slump this season; they’re averaging 11.8 goals a game, which doesn’t seem all that spectacular until you realise that we only average 12.2 ourselves. But the way they’re scoring is the noteworthy bit; Rory Lobb has 7 for the season and Taberner had 4 from two games prior to today’s 7, but the rest of their goals have been kicked by their small forwards, with 31 goals coming from Frederick, Schultz, Colyer, O’Driscoll, Banfield and Switkowski.
• What this tells us is that their talls form a more structural purpose than ours do. We rely on mark-kick (less so this year than last, but we still look to Charlie and Harry to take a mark and kick the goal) where they look to Lobb to either take a mark or bring the ball to ground to allow the smalls to go to work; Frederick is more a goalsneak than the others, but all of them appreciate a tackle and serve a defensive purpose.
• Alex Pearce (ankle), Caleb Serong (knee), Darcy Tucker(concussion) are all listed as tests; they might get up, they might not. Fyfe and Johnson do not have definitive timelines for recovery, so expect them to be out.
• At time of writing, they’re healthier than we are, but that truly comes as no surprise.

Strategy

Fremantle set up behind the ball, and they rely on trying to slow you riiiiight down. I’m talking, a deep press. They genuinely do not care if you’re winning clearances around the ground in the back half, because it allows them to continuously grind your mids against their waves of tacklers. People like to talk about other clubs playing a Richmond way; Freo is sincerely one of the only sides who are willing to concede the stoppage in order to build referred pressure. However, no Johnson helps us there; he’s an excellent defender. They rely on Lobb being a combination ruck/CHF, moving around the ground and forming a target for a chopout kick downfield or to get loose inside forward 50; Treacy’s only played the one game this year, so in his absence expect that to continue.

Expect them to outtackle us, because our pressure is focussed at the balldrop inside forward 50 where theirs is designed to create referred pressure around the ball. They don’t score unless we turn it over; while I can’t prove this statistically (because they don’t release scores from turnover to the public in order to make BT and Luke Darcy look intelligent) at the rate they win clearances they cannot really rely on them to score. Expect us to win clearances and contested ball; we should not lose either against them.

Prior to today’s game, I’d have said that they don’t really have in them to match our scoring power, but they’ve demonstrated rather adroitly that they now have the game to score from turnover, and when they win the ball at the coalface they’ll punish you for it, badly.

How this game should go relies almost entirely on our transition game. If we play as we did last week – going for distance as deep inside 50 as we can – we will lose this match, because they set up to stop that from working. Harry and Charlie cannot leap against 5 opposition. If we have Pittonett in, expect us to win hitouts; even if TDK is in, there would be a fair chance of us winning hitouts, as Lobb is more a forward with endurance than he is a ruck.

The win can be drawn from two things: running the ball through wing to half forward, instead of kicking from wing inside 50, and getting the ball to ground once inside 50. We do those things, we win the game.

How the win looks from their perspective is that their smalls go to work on our defenders, and their mids pressure the exit sufficiently that we’re just bombing blindly to their defense. They kick goals from turnovers at half back, and we struggle to get the ball deeper than CHF. The game looks, ostensibly, as it did last week, with us being unable to move the ball beyond halfway before going long down the line; however, a huge component of why this week should be different is that GC had Witts and they correspondingly smashed us around the ball, and I don’t think Freo will. If we go down the line the same way we did against GC, we stand a better than 50/50 chance of winning the stoppage should we knock the ball out, and that’s where the game will be won from their perspective; break even in stoppages or generate the turnover from that throw in and they win, lose stoppages at a 60-40 rate or worse and allow easy entry into our forward line, they lose.

For the season, we’re sitting at a +3 free kick differential, so we probably won’t get hit the same way GWS were, but that is something that can happen interstate. Expect to lose the count, but it will only have an impact if the ball is spending too much time in their half of the ground; ie, keep the ball in our forward line, and their frees won’t matter a whole heap. Plus, we also kind of have the Newnes factor; the AFL has favoured us against Fremantle in the past, and they surely will again. We just need to make sure that the Fremantle Bigfooty board don’t do another deep dive (as they did on our salary cap) and expose the money we’re shooting to Gill specifically for advantage in Freo games; they almost got us last time, so it’s something we genuinely need to be careful about.

In all seriousness, this should be a good game. They’re a much stronger side than they’ve been at any point over the last five years, and our record against them has been strong; however, this is in Perth, and they've just learnt that they are strong.

Carlton by 10

​

We are due one after our last couple of seasons.
Correct me if im wrong but i believe carlton have won 4 in a row against freo since 2019?

 

[Davey33]

I think the 12pt margin in the WB game is deceiving. That game really should have been won by them - so many gettable set shots missed, the ball basically stuck in their half and so many iffy disposals from us. It may not have been quite as dramatic as the HAW/PA games, but I’d put it damn close.

Which means its been awfully close in every single game. And the lapses that all decried under Teague are still there.

 

[SammaGilberto]

I can't remember what his injury was the last time, was it a knee?

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Foot sprain

 

[Beyond Blue]

We are due one after our last couple of seasons.
Correct me if im wrong but i believe carlton have won 4 in a row against freo since 2019?

We have won 4 in a row - 2019, 2020 and 2 x 2021 - but I’m not sure how that means we are “due a loss” to them, if anything it suggests we match up well against them.
I’m pretty sure the Hawks didn’t think they were due a loss to us when they beat us for 15 years in a row!

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

IronMan gets pretty good info, I will back that in

I agree its a great opportunity to visit the family but ive also been told that they won't take any risk with the hamstring tightening up because he is confined to a 4 hour flight. If any doubt then he won't be risked. I just don't think they will jeopardise the team because of convienance.

Happy if he plays but not if he ain't right. So far he hasn't done a great deal at training.

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Fair enough, I was not aware.

Not a risk worth taking unless he is 100%.

 

[Aphrodite]

I think the 12pt margin in the WB game is deceiving. That game really should have been won by them - so many gettable set shots missed the ball basically stuck in their half and so many iffy disposals from us. It may not have been quite as dramatic as the HAW/PA games, but I’d put it damn close.

Bad kicking is bad footy.

What’s to say had they not missed a few of those shots, the ball would have gone back to the middle & there’s every possibility that we would have scored.

 

[Beyond Blue]

I think the 12pt margin in the WB game is deceiving. That game really should have been won by them - so many gettable set shots missed, the ball basically stuck in their half and so many iffy disposals from us. It may not have been quite as dramatic as the HAW/PA games, but I’d put it damn close.

I must admit I was quite negative after the team just held on in the Hawks and Port wins but even I’m willing to say thinking the Dogs game was a loss is a pretty glum view of the world.

If you don’t already then I’d suggest you watch a few games this weekend - I’ve been in Covid isolation the past 2 weekends so I’ve watched lots lately and pretty much 75% of them are decided by a quarter (or sometimes less) of one team dominating the other - usually both teams walk away thinking they could have won or lost.

 

[DangerousD]

I think Arrow mentioned it earlier, but I’d like to see Kennedy up forward for spells and replaced with a bit of pace in the midfield, especially during second halves.

Think that’d help with our effort without the ball and offer better resistance to the opposition’s transition from their back half. Plus Kennedy is a very good forward option.

I agree that Kennedy should spend more time forward and be at the forward line stoppages, but where is this pace that we are replacing him with? How would it work?

Would you drop Martin for Dow and have Kennedy play Martins role?

 

[carlton_99]

I think the 12pt margin in the WB game is deceiving. That game really should have been won by them - so many gettable set shots missed, the ball basically stuck in their half and so many iffy disposals from us. It may not have been quite as dramatic as the HAW/PA games, but I’d put it damn close.

To be fair they missed 4 shots in a row that all came from our poor kick ins. If they score the first there is no guarantee that they get the other 3 as ball goes back to the middle.

 

[Blue Reaper]

I agree that Kennedy should spend more time forward and be at the forward line stoppages, but where is this pace that we are replacing him with? How would it work?

Would you drop Martin for Dow and have Kennedy play Martins role?

I’m an ideas man not a solutions guru.

But… not drop Martin. Thought he was good. Maybe Dow for Setters and do some magnet movements. I like the idea of Walsh on the wing. Just one option. Or throw Durdin in the middle for short spells.

 

[Arr0w]

Bad kicking is bad footy.

What’s to say had they not missed a few of those shots, the ball would have gone back to the middle & there’s every possibility that we would have scored.

I agree that Kennedy should spend more time forward and be at the forward line stoppages, but where is this pace that we are replacing him with? How would it work?

Would you drop Martin for Dow and have Kennedy play Martins role?

The likes of Fisher and Martin are doing some time on the ball, just give them more minutes. Occasionally use Williams, Doc, Durdin, shit even give Saad the occasional centre bounce

You don't need to make best 22 changes to be creative, while still using your go-to mids

 

[ferrisb]

View attachment 1376604​

Formline

Carlton:

W-W-W-L-W

We beat the Tigers in Round 1, coming from being 20 points down to 20 points up. Cripps, Kennedy, Cerra, Hewitt ran rampant. We then beat WB in a performance dominated by our talls up forward, with McKay and Curnow kicking 9 between them; we faded late and they almost caught us, but Charlie’s final term saw them off.

The game against Hawthorn was a gruelling experience in stress, with us being the clearly better side early and kicking out to a significant lead, only to have them spend the entire rest of the match chipping away at that lead and taking it from us late. Still, due to a clever handpass from Fisher and a goal from Silvagni, we retook the lead and the backline were intelligent enough – after two and a half terms of the midfield playing dumb football – to slow the game down late and we held on for the win.

We were burnt against GC. No Pittonett, Cripps with a hamstring, no Oscar or Gov or Durdin. GC beat an insipid midfield group courtesy of Witts absolutely demolishing TDK and Jack – with Jack being oddly the better option, despite the difference in height – and GC beating us in contested ball and clearances. We, in turn, could not get the ball beyond centre wing; conditions were quite dewy, but it was seemingly only one side that could compensate for them. We spent all afternoon fumbling, and looked arguably worse than we have for almost two seasons.

We touched up Port for two terms, and looked for all money like a top 4 side. 6 goals a term twice. We then proceeded to collapse into a heap, and it took a contested mark and conversion from Charlie and half a dozen acts of defense from a number of players to get us over the line.

What the form line suggests is that our best is sublime, but for whatever reason the long break is not working to reset the team, get them or keep them hungry. Whatever that is, we need to fix it pronto, because Fremantle are not going to die wondering.


Fremantle:

W-L-W-W-W

Their game against Adelaide in round 1 was a close one, with them only just pipping Adelaide by a point. Adelaide is a bit of a tricky team at home – when they get on a roll, they frequently kick 5 goals + on the trot – so this shows maturity that they are perhaps not well known for under Longmuir.

The loss they had to St Kilda was at home and was a game that they were expected to win. Having said that, St Kilda are another side that is 4-1, so perhaps this is not so bad a loss as all that. The interesting thing about this game is that St Kilda outtackled them, so that’s potentially a way in.

Their win against WC came when WC were at their most depleted; a top 4 side would have won that game by more arguably, but we’ve not beaten anyone by 55 points yet so we’ll see. Their defeat of GWS at home is interesting, because while they outpossessed GWS they lost the clearances; the only noteworthy statistical observation that can be made here is that Freo didn’t just win the free kick count, it was 42 frees to 16 for the game. GWS can certainly be undisciplined, but a +26 differential’s genuinely absurd.

They absolutely poleaxed Essendon, with a ten goal run that started in the second quarter and finished halfway through the last. Taberner kicked 7, the first time he’s done so in his career. Brayshaw had 34; he’s having an exceptional year, and alongside Mundy and Serong are their best, but Freo are remarkable for their spread of contributors.

They’ve beaten two teams that I’d consider to be noteworthy in GWS and Adelaide at home. It will take a strong performance from us to get over them in Perth.



Observations

• Both teams coming off a six day break
• Both teams in Melbourne this week, needing to travel back; ie, travel might not be a factor
• We average more of the ball, more clearances, more inside 50’s more rebound 50’s. Fremantle average more tackles a game, and force their opponents to kick the ball more; this suits their method, as they seek to create hacked kicks to intercept and set up their offense.
• Carlton 63.8 clangers; Fremantle 62.2; while we get significantly more of the ball, both sides fu** it up at about the same rate.
• Dockers average 70.2 turnovers a game, Carlton 68.8. Dockers 73.8 intercept possessions, Carlton 71.5
• Scoring: Fremantle are finally coming out of a bit of a scoring slump this season; they’re averaging 11.8 goals a game, which doesn’t seem all that spectacular until you realise that we only average 12.2 ourselves. But the way they’re scoring is the noteworthy bit; Rory Lobb has 7 for the season and Taberner had 4 from two games prior to today’s 7, but the rest of their goals have been kicked by their small forwards, with 31 goals coming from Frederick, Schultz, Colyer, O’Driscoll, Banfield and Switkowski.
• What this tells us is that their talls form a more structural purpose than ours do. We rely on mark-kick (less so this year than last, but we still look to Charlie and Harry to take a mark and kick the goal) where they look to Lobb to either take a mark or bring the ball to ground to allow the smalls to go to work; Frederick is more a goalsneak than the others, but all of them appreciate a tackle and serve a defensive purpose.
• Alex Pearce (ankle), Caleb Serong (knee), Darcy Tucker(concussion) are all listed as tests; they might get up, they might not. Fyfe and Johnson do not have definitive timelines for recovery, so expect them to be out.
• At time of writing, they’re healthier than we are, but that truly comes as no surprise.

Strategy

Fremantle set up behind the ball, and they rely on trying to slow you riiiiight down. I’m talking, a deep press. They genuinely do not care if you’re winning clearances around the ground in the back half, because it allows them to continuously grind your mids against their waves of tacklers. People like to talk about other clubs playing a Richmond way; Freo is sincerely one of the only sides who are willing to concede the stoppage in order to build referred pressure. However, no Johnson helps us there; he’s an excellent defender. They rely on Lobb being a combination ruck/CHF, moving around the ground and forming a target for a chopout kick downfield or to get loose inside forward 50; Treacy’s only played the one game this year, so in his absence expect that to continue.

Expect them to outtackle us, because our pressure is focussed at the balldrop inside forward 50 where theirs is designed to create referred pressure around the ball. They don’t score unless we turn it over; while I can’t prove this statistically (because they don’t release scores from turnover to the public in order to make BT and Luke Darcy look intelligent) at the rate they win clearances they cannot really rely on them to score. Expect us to win clearances and contested ball; we should not lose either against them.

Prior to today’s game, I’d have said that they don’t really have in them to match our scoring power, but they’ve demonstrated rather adroitly that they now have the game to score from turnover, and when they win the ball at the coalface they’ll punish you for it, badly.

How this game should go relies almost entirely on our transition game. If we play as we did last week – going for distance as deep inside 50 as we can – we will lose this match, because they set up to stop that from working. Harry and Charlie cannot leap against 5 opposition. If we have Pittonett in, expect us to win hitouts; even if TDK is in, there would be a fair chance of us winning hitouts, as Lobb is more a forward with endurance than he is a ruck.

The win can be drawn from two things: running the ball through wing to half forward, instead of kicking from wing inside 50, and getting the ball to ground once inside 50. We do those things, we win the game.

How the win looks from their perspective is that their smalls go to work on our defenders, and their mids pressure the exit sufficiently that we’re just bombing blindly to their defense. They kick goals from turnovers at half back, and we struggle to get the ball deeper than CHF. The game looks, ostensibly, as it did last week, with us being unable to move the ball beyond halfway before going long down the line; however, a huge component of why this week should be different is that GC had Witts and they correspondingly smashed us around the ball, and I don’t think Freo will. If we go down the line the same way we did against GC, we stand a better than 50/50 chance of winning the stoppage should we knock the ball out, and that’s where the game will be won from their perspective; break even in stoppages or generate the turnover from that throw in and they win, lose stoppages at a 60-40 rate or worse and allow easy entry into our forward line, they lose.

For the season, we’re sitting at a +3 free kick differential, so we probably won’t get hit the same way GWS were, but that is something that can happen interstate. Expect to lose the count, but it will only have an impact if the ball is spending too much time in their half of the ground; ie, keep the ball in our forward line, and their frees won’t matter a whole heap. Plus, we also kind of have the Newnes factor; the AFL has favoured us against Fremantle in the past, and they surely will again. We just need to make sure that the Fremantle Bigfooty board don’t do another deep dive (as they did on our salary cap) and expose the money we’re shooting to Gill specifically for advantage in Freo games; they almost got us last time, so it’s something we genuinely need to be careful about.

In all seriousness, this should be a good game. They’re a much stronger side than they’ve been at any point over the last five years, and our record against them has been strong; however, this is in Perth, and they've just learnt that they are strong.

Carlton by 10

​

This is an incredible preview, Geth.

Just letting ppl know that when it's my turn, I will offer none of this insight.

Instead, expect to see a few stats, overlaid with dozens of puns and insults about the shitestain that is the *FC...

 

[Blue Reaper]

The likes of Fisher and Martin are doing some time on the ball, just give them more minutes. Occasionally use Williams, Doc, Durdin, shit even give Saad the occasional centre bounce

You don't need to make best 22 changes to be creative, while still using your go-to mids

Yeah, I was thinking this after the Port game….Perhaps it’s time to revisit the Williams in the middle idea, for short stints, given our new system, new players in Hewett & Cerra and new attitude. But yeah, be imaginative, and maybe even Saad.