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List Mgmt. 2022 Trade Thread - Part II

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Sunshine Sainter said:
Thats not a fact at all. In the 23 years of national drafts the Brownlow medal winners that were drafted in the top 10, only won 8 Brownlows (35%).

Brownlow medal winners taken with picks 11-58, father son and zone took 65% of Brownlow wins.

Brownlow medal winners who were drafted with picks from 20-58 won 12 times (52%).

If we want a better chance of drafting a Brownlow winner then we need to get our hands on Picks 20, 40, 43, and 58 who all have had two Brownlow winners each. Interestingly these four picks have produced as many Brownlow winners (35%) as the top 10 picks have.
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I would like to see the top 10 players in each of those years though. I would imagine it would be more skewed towards frdp's

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Beard of Zeus said:
Well Gardiner is no world-beater but he's proven. 150 games at a Top finalist team, he's got runs on the board.

He also plays small, so he can pressure Paton/Webster lockdown roles. Adds some depth and options to the backline. Wouldn't mind some Brisbane IP either!!

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Isn’t Brisbane’s defence their worst part of their game?

Their midfield is powerful and they kick a lot of goals but they leak them like crazy
 

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L_W_P said:
Both Coff and Clark have had patches of unreal form. Coff was looking like young Luke Hodge as that intercepting HBF while Clark had some insane plays getting us out of trouble. I remember the game against Port in 2020 where he was immense.

Both have had injuries but both have also suffered through our lacklusture developmental program.

Windy and Owens both looked like jets at times this year. It's reasonable to expect they will be better in 3 years' time but I'm not so sure we have the right training programs to get the most out of them :(
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Still remember the last few minuets against gold Coast that year when he went full Alpha

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MordySaint said:

AFL 2018: St Kilda appoints former Adelaide player James Gallagher as list manager

Former Crow appointed St Kilda’s new list manager
www.foxsports.com.au

Simon Lethlean on the James Gallagher appointment “Importantly, he also possesses a range of skills and disciplines that we were looking for which he has derived from his career in banking."
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“James was the standout candidate in a quality field of applicants,” Lethlean said.
“He has enjoyed a long and distinguished professional football and coaching career and understands the demands on players and the attributes required to play at the top level."

Sounds like a complimentary skill set to his first hand football knowledge.
I can't imagine why you left it off.
 
Saints43 said:
“James was the standout candidate in a quality field of applicants,” Lethlean said.
“He has enjoyed a long and distinguished professional football and coaching career and understands the demands on players and the attributes required to play at the top level."

Sounds alright when you don't leave the first bit out.
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Never let the facts get in the way of a good story, certainly happens alot around here haha

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Tom Lynch: Drafted first round. Traded Pick 37. Jack Newnes.
Tom Walsh: Rookie , Traded Pick 35. Daniel Markworth.
-----
Brendon Goddard : Free Agent Pick 13. - Tom Hickey and 25 - Spencer White.
Jamie Cripps : Drafted first round. Traded pick 40. Brodie Murdoch ( Pick before Mason Wood ).
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Nick Dal Santo : Free Agent . Pick 25 -- Billy Longer.
Ben McEvoy and Pick 24 for Savage and picks 18 and 19 - Dunstan , Acres.
------
Rhys Stanley and 60 for 21. Hugh Goddard.
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Tom Hickey - Pick 39 -- added to future 2nd, for Dan Hannebury and 28, - split to 36 and 46 : Bytel and Parker.
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Jack Steven - Pick 58 -- added to pick 6 to get picks 12 and 18 - part of the Hill deal. ( Acres ).
Josh Bruce - 32 and 51 -- Part of the Zac Jones deal.
----------
Hind -- Pick 67 -- Pick not used.
 
Saints43 said:
“James was the standout candidate in a quality field of applicants,” Lethlean said.
“He has enjoyed a long and distinguished professional football and coaching career and understands the demands on players and the attributes required to play at the top level."

Sounds like a complimentary skill set to his first hand football knowledge.
I can't imagine why you left it off.
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How does that extra quote say he has experience as a list manager?

From my recollection, our list payments strategy was said to have needed a financial look over. Players were getting rises based on whether they finished high up in the B&F. Which is not a sound strategy especially if you are finishing in the bottom half of the ladder.

There was a lot of media press about the appointment being completely left of field.

I choose to reference that quote because it was the element which raised the most eyebrows on here and whether we went for an experienced list manager or someone who was not experienced. We went for the latter.
 
SaintsSeptember said:
Tom Lynch: Drafted first round. Traded Pick 37. Jack Newnes.
Tom Walsh: Rookie , Traded Pick 35. Daniel Markworth.
-----
Brendon Goddard : Free Agent Pick 13. - Tom Hickey and 25 - Spencer White.
Jamie Cripps : Drafted first round. Traded pick 40. Brodie Murdoch ( Pick before Mason Wood ).
-----
Nick Dal Santo : Free Agent . Pick 25 -- Billy Longer.
Ben McEvoy and Pick 24 for Savage and picks 18 and 19 - Dunstan , Acres.
------
Rhys Stanley and 60 for 21. Hugh Goddard.
-------
Tom Hickey - Pick 39 -- added to future 2nd, for Dan Hannebury and 28, - split to 36 and 46 : Bytel and Parker.
-----
Jack Steven - Pick 58 -- added to pick 6 to get picks 12 and 18 - part of the Hill deal. ( Acres ).
Josh Bruce - 32 and 51 -- Part of the Zac Jones deal.
----------
Hind -- Pick 67 -- Pick not used.
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That’s some pretty sad reading right there pardner.
 

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Kind of off topic but stumbled across this from an article in the AFR on the Media Rights and the team the AFL used to negotiate the mega deal.

"McLachlan’s team also included seasoned dealmakers Robin Bishop of BGH Capital and Seek founder Paul Bassat, and AFL executives Andrew Dillon, Travis Auld and Kylie Rogers, the internal front-runners to replace the outgoing CEO."

Maybe we should be bringing him into the room to haggle with Dodo and Bell etc :)
 
Beard of Zeus said:
Well Gardiner is no world-beater but he's proven. 150 games at a Top finalist team, he's got runs on the board.

He also plays small, so he can pressure Paton/Webster lockdown roles. Adds some depth and options to the backline. Wouldn't mind some Brisbane IP either!!

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Click to expand...
This IP stuff is utter BS , Sorry mate but we had Two port players and that helped us how , Two swans Hanners and Jones helped how
 

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bergholt said:
If the club believes that it's damaging to have him around then it's negligent to "sit tight and others convince us to trade". What if no-one wants to chase an OK player at the back end of their career on a big salary?

If he's professional and motivated then fine. If not then we have to push him out, and that means taking a much lower price than we would have otherwise.
Click to expand...

It’s the last paragraph that we furiously agree on and without evidence to the contrary I would sit tight and wait for others to convince us to trade him.

We don’t have salary cap pressure. IMO Hill is still a bloody good footballer (despite some who disagree with this) and as long as the club thinks his motivation and professionalism is not an issue then we keep him unless another club comes up with a worthwhile deal.

I have no idea about what is going on behind the scenes but if there is toxicity then obviously that changes things. But the club has said he is a required player so that is good enough for me.
 
The_Steadier said:
I don't know what you are getting at.

Sure, i was a little clumsy calling it 0.8 winners per pick and not 0.8 chance of a winner per pick.

But my point remains whatever you want to call it- not calling it 'chance' is just semantics- doesn't change anything.

0.8 strikerate for top 10 is way higher (almost triple) than the 0.3 rate for picks 11-58 + zone + fs.


If you want to be pedantic:

Top 10 strikerate:

23 years of drafts = 230 top 10 picks total.

Brownlow medal winners from top 10 in 23 years = 8

8 / 230 = 0.035 winners per pick.


Vs

Picks 11-58 + fs + zoned strikerate

23 years of drafts = at least 1,150 picks total in the range picks 11 to 58 + zoned + fs.

Brownlow medal winners from pick range 11-58 + zone + fs in 23 years = 15

15 / 1150 = 0.013 winners per pick.

No matter which way you express it- the story is the same.
Stats say there is nearly 3 times more chance of drafting a brownlow winner with a top 10 pick than with one in pick range 11-58 + fs + zoned.
Click to expand...
This post needs more algebra.
 
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