List Mgmt. 2022 Trade Thread - Part II

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Darcy Gardiner copping too much flack here.

Had a down couple of weeks (injured?), and got some heat from the commentary team, so everyone has jumped on the bandwagon and is off him now.

He's a solid lock down player and would be one of the easiest picks for Bris each week. That's why Bris- a prelim team- is trying to keep him.

26yo 192cm lock down BP with 150 games AND comes without trading a pick, cash only. Take your blinkers off, we need more talent like Dizz Gardiner.

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I rate him and want him but our recruiters have to agree he has the nous to play on the taller forwards and have the same impact in the full back position. The position we need filled.

Ethan Phillips and Gardiner are our best options for what we have to pay. Leaning to the former with his height.
 
I don't know what you are getting at.

Sure, i was a little clumsy calling it 0.8 winners per pick and not 0.8 chance of a winner per pick.

But my point remains whatever you want to call it- not calling it 'chance' is just semantics- doesn't change anything.

0.8 strikerate for top 10 is way higher (almost triple) than the 0.3 rate for picks 11-58 + zone + fs.


If you want to be pedantic:

Top 10 strikerate:

23 years of drafts = 230 top 10 picks total.

Brownlow medal winners from top 10 in 23 years = 8

8 / 230 = 0.035 winners per pick.


Vs

Picks 11-58 + fs + zoned strikerate

23 years of drafts = at least 1,150 picks total in the range picks 11 to 58 + zoned + fs.

Brownlow medal winners from pick range 11-58 + zone + fs in 23 years = 15

15 / 1150 = 0.013 winners per pick.

No matter which way you express it- the story is the same.
Stats say there is nearly 3 times more chance of drafting a brownlow winner with a top 10 pick than with one in pick range 11-58 + fs + zoned.

Excellent work, love a bit of data analytics.

Be interested in top 5 too, that's where the real cream is. Once you get past 5 then it's more hit and miss. I thought our 7 and 8 picks in 2018 were on very safe side and are showing as that.
 

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You would be trading out a best 22 each year to do this and at the same time trading for nobody of note to retain your picks
I would be trading out an ageing Best 20-25 each year to get this done, correct. This year that's Hill (deal permitting), next year TBC.

Bundle up said player with other picks, other fringe players and find at least 1 more Top 30 pick to hit that benchmark by keeping our 1st and 2nd.

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Remind me which contracted player Gags has sold low? Oh that right you can't.

More outright garbage shitposting. You really have an issue with reality.


I reckon just about every player we have moved on in his time has been given away or moved on cheaply. Guys like Bruce, Dunstan, Newnes, Hickey, Acres, Savage, Steven, McCartin etc are either delisted or sold for unders. To have reaped no trade capital for so many players is part of the reason why we have had to buy in so many with the picks that usually get used to draft the next generation.

Some were probably never going to get much but most were just cut free. If they are out of contract when they go it just is part of his job too. Other sides sell their average players for something even if it's a token.
 
So from a very very good source. Hunter was surprised the learn the club are exploring trading him and wasn't happy about it but the club are definitely looking into moving him.

Hate to hear that.

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Oh and Hill definitely wants to leave.

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I rate him and want him but our recruiters have to agree he has the nous to play on the taller forwards and have the same impact in the full back position. The position we need filled.

Ethan Phillips and Gardiner are our best options for what we have to pay. Leaning to the former with his height.
Well Gardiner is no world-beater but he's proven. 150 games at a Top finalist team, he's got runs on the board.

He also plays small, so he can pressure Paton/Webster lockdown roles. Adds some depth and options to the backline. Wouldn't mind some Brisbane IP either!!

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Is that Premo? He's got some points but eating away depth and players on the cusp of playing good footy is not good management and the side is playing some of the ugliest boring footy in the game. There is heaps wrong and that attitude of just shrugging your shoulders and accepting mediocrity is why we don't really change even when nothing works.

Lethlean has been at the club as long as GT had in charge of the side. GT took us from the bottom of the ladder to the top. Lethlean has kept us in stasis. We are operating in such a slow pace we are almost not moving. Collingwood has rebuilt and played off once since we played them in a GF, rebuilt and are close again. Dogs twice in the same period.

Realistically we should be burning the place down but we've become so conditioned to mediocrity and not performing we excuse everything they do. There is real potential for us to go either way. I hate being told to sit down and shut up as well.
GT also had a few generational footballers at his disposal....of and John Beveridge...

But let's not let the facts get in the way of a good story

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GT also had a few generational footballers at his disposal....of and John Beveridge...

But let's not let the facts get in the way of a good story

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I was merely demonstrating the time frames involved using GT as a prop. We are moving slowly. I would like to find our new JBevo..... I want a gun recruiter.
 
That makes no sense. He’s obliged to honour it in that he’s obliged to hang around the club and go to training. But what if he phones it in, trains poorly, doesn’t play well, fakes injuries, whatever? Way worse for morale having a guy like that around, let alone earning a motza.

They key words you used is “what if”.

He’s a professional footballer and is being handsomely rewarded. None of us really know what is happening within the inner sanctum and the club will make a decision based on facts we do not know.

If the club believes Hill is professional, and has a lot to offer going forward, then we aren’t a distressed seller. Sure, if the deal is right, then we trade.

Otherwise we sit tight and others convince us to trade.
 
So from a very very good source. Hunter was surprised the learn the club are exploring trading him and wasn't happy about it but the club are definitely looking into moving him.

Hate to hear that.

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What are some past examples of when this 'very very good source' was right about anything?
 

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I was merely demonstrating the time frames involved using GT as a prop. We are moving slowly. I would like to find our new JBevo..... I want a gun recruiter.


Simon Lethlean on the James Gallagher appointment “Importantly, he also possesses a range of skills and disciplines that we were looking for which he has derived from his career in banking."
 
Selling off Hunter Clark for anything less than pick 7 is moving sideways or backwards unless we absolutely arse a star. The further you move away from pick 1 the less likely the player will be a star. He is at an age where we should see what he's got. He's exactly the type of trade out that can embarrass us later on.

I'm 100% into keeping all our high picks to use at the draft and always have been but if you are not getting overs for what you are losing and pay high for everything you bring in you are where we are now. gags has been a pretty bad at everything apart from keeping the TPP down.

If you turn Ben Long into a second rounder that's good management. He wants out, we aren't playing him in a way that benefits us or him and we are dealing with a side with bulk second rounders and no fans.

Draft hand is one of those things that you want when rebuilding, but the good sides get pieces from all over the place. We don't need to eat five sandwiches because we skipped lunch yesterday. Just get our drafting back on track and stop throwing the ones we do have away.
Trading Clark is crazy as is this narrative that he should look like mr universe, is injury prone etc. He was smashed against Adelaide, posters should maybe have a read about the severity and ongoing problems, nerve damage, lack of feeling. Then he did a shoulder in a heavy collision after being picked by his captain etc to break out last year.

I‘m not trading Clark one of our few young guys of that age with real talent so our recruiters can try to do as well with pick what ? Only at st Kilda would that crap be seen as a good idea yet we’re expected despite past disasters to get on board with that.

Also hill will ask for a trade or whatever he decides but that’s another bullshit narrative that’s now gospel on here. I didn’t want him for the exact reasons posters have raised about his game and we overpaid for someone we didn’t need. That‘s different from what he’s produced at the saints and if he’s worth keeping. Fact, he’s played some very good football and with Sinclair firing at times we’ve looked damaging off halfback and a finals side. Fact, he’s still a damaging player and walks into our best 22. Fact, he worked hard and improved his defensive game although he‘ll never be a lockdown defender and he would be wasted as one. So why having paid overs for him and apparently not needing him off the books would we trade him for anything but a very good deal.

I want to hit the draft hard and to do that you need picks but they have to make sense. Imo clark makes no sense at all and hill has the feel of weakening the team for not much, reminds me of the bruce trade. You’re 100% on the trying too hard, you can’t make up for years of poor decisions in one trade period. Why do things at st Kilda so often look like arse covering rather than what’s best for the club moving forward. I think if you want to blow up the place and get a fist load of picks you’d trade Marshall 27 in November and Gresham. I wouldn’t do it but there are your picks and as we have seen with Grundy irreplaceable is thrown around way too often. Get soldo, he can ruck and throw his weight around, ruckman are really overrated.
 
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They key words you used is “what if”.

He’s a professional footballer and is being handsomely rewarded. None of us really know what is happening within the inner sanctum and the club will make a decision based on facts we do not know.

If the club believes Hill is professional, and has a lot to offer going forward, then we aren’t a distressed seller. Sure, if the deal is right, then we trade.

Otherwise we sit tight and others convince us to trade.

If the club believes that it's damaging to have him around then it's negligent to "sit tight and others convince us to trade". What if no-one wants to chase an OK player at the back end of their career on a big salary?

If he's professional and motivated then fine. If not then we have to push him out, and that means taking a much lower price than we would have otherwise.
 
I reckon just about every player we have moved on in his time has been given away or moved on cheaply. Guys like Bruce, Dunstan, Newnes, Hickey, Acres, Savage, Steven, McCartin etc are either delisted or sold for unders. To have reaped no trade capital for so many players is part of the reason why we have had to buy in so many with the picks that usually get used to draft the next generation.

Some were probably never going to get much but most were just cut free. If they are out of contract when they go it just is part of his job too. Other sides sell their average players for something even if it's a token.
Haven't Collingwood done the same?
 
Excellent work, love a bit of data analytics.

Be interested in top 5 too, that's where the real cream is. Once you get past 5 then it's more hit and miss. I thought our 7 and 8 picks in 2018 were on very safe side and are showing as that.

Both Coff and Clark have had patches of unreal form. Coff was looking like young Luke Hodge as that intercepting HBF while Clark had some insane plays getting us out of trouble. I remember the game against Port in 2020 where he was immense.

Both have had injuries but both have also suffered through our lacklusture developmental program.

Windy and Owens both looked like jets at times this year. It's reasonable to expect they will be better in 3 years' time but I'm not so sure we have the right training programs to get the most out of them :(
 
I really don’t think we should be upset that no one wants to come to us. Going after disgruntled players from other teams and offering them overs is what we’ve been doing for years and it’s why Zak Jones is one of the highest paid on our list.

We should be happy if a couple want out and we get picks to go to the draft.

Agree with this philosophy.

Get stuck into the draft and keep building. It’s a sound strategy if we get our development and coaching right.

Happy to pursue free agents though. Free hit.
 
He also had 25 and 3 in a 30-point loss against West Coast in his tenth game.

Billings has tragically never been able to recapture just how good he looked in his first 50 games but as I've been saying in this thread, Hunter Clark has never had a game that he tore apart like that in his first 50 games where he was the deciding factor.

It's really disappointing because his hands are unbelievably clean and he's the best ambidextrous kick in the competition. The skills are there for him to be great, but he hasn't captured it.
I would argue that he's had two games where he has.
1 was the final against the dogs where he basically saved us in the last quarter.

And I remember one other against the cats in 2020 where he just dominated and had like 10 in the first quarter.

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I don't think our backline is actually that poor, our midfield let the ball just waltz in there. It wasn't the amount of times it was down there that hurt us but how little pressure was on the kicker going inside 50.

Unfortunately 200cm athletic KPDs don't grow on trees though Lewis Hayes could be close potentially to our 2nd in the draft and wouldn't mind trading up for him (provided that we aren't overpaying drastically).
I agree with this. I reckon people who watch on TV are the ones who grizzle about game plans but our midfield pick and choose their efforts sometimes. It's obvious at the ground And not even the captain, who I love, is immune from that. They're a massive part of the problem. In fact, they might even just about be our only problem.
The great news is that Mitch, Windy and Nasiah seem willing to go every time, fitness allowing.
 
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